Out today in Environmental Research Letters, the new study finds that a subset of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) most in line with recent data and International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts to 2050 project between 3.6 and 5.4 degrees F (2 and 3 C) of warming by 2100, with a median of 3.96 F (2.2 C) degrees. In comparison, some implausible, worst-case scenarios have projected as much as 7.2 or 9 F (4 or 5 C) degrees of warming by the end of the century.

“This is cautiously optimistic good news with respect to where the world is today, compared to where we thought we might be,” said lead author Roger Pielke Jr., professor of environmental studies. “The two-degree target from Paris remains within reach.”

In order to explore and plan for possible futures, the climate research community uses scenarios: forecasts of how the future might evolve based on factors such as projected greenhouse gas emissions and different possible climate policies.

The most commonly used scenarios, called the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), were developed by the IPCC starting in 2005. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) that followed, starting in 2010, were meant as an update. Together, the two sets of scenarios inform the IPCC’s Fifth and forthcoming Sixth Assessment Reports.

For their study, Pielke Jr. and his co-authors started with a total of 1,311 climate scenarios from which the climate research community selected the 11 RCPs and SSPs. Pielke and colleagues compared the scenarios to the projected 2005-2050 fossil fuel and industry carbon dioxide emissions growth rates most consistent with real-life observations from 2005-2020, and IEA projections to 2050. The number of scenarios which most closely matched up to data from the past 15 years and subsequent emissions projections ranged from less than 100 to almost 500, depending upon the method applied. These scenarios represent what futures are plausible if current trends continue and countries adopt the climate policies they have already announced to reduce carbon emissions.

Additional, more optimistic or pessimistic futures could also exist, the authors said.

“Because we haven’t updated our [IPCC] scenarios [for many years], there are also some futures which are plausible but haven’t yet been envisioned,” said Pielke Jr.

Pathways and plausibility

The analysis joins a growing consensus of independent groups around the world whose work finds that the most extreme climate scenarios are unlikely to occur this century, and mid-range scenarios are more likely. A report from the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) released in 2021 also notes that the likelihood of high emissions scenarios is considered low.

Why are these worst-case scenarios now less plausible? Mainly, they were all developed more than a decade ago, and a lot has happened since.

For example, renewable energy has become more affordable and, thus, more common faster than expected, said Matthew Burgess, co-author and fellow in the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at CU Boulder.

These fast-moving changes are captured in the scenarios drafted by the IEA, a Paris-based intergovernmental organization, which provides updates each year.

Climate scenarios also tend to overestimate economic growth, especially in poorer countries, according to Burgess, assistant professor of environmental studies.

In addition, while the 2010 scenarios were supposed to serve as updates to the socio-economic assumptions of the initial RCPs, the RCPs have continued to be used heavily by scientists. And the commonly used “worst-case” scenario, RCP8.5 (named for 8.5 watts per meter squared, a measure of solar irradiance) projects an increase of 7.2 to 9 F (4 to 5 C) by 2100.

“It’s hard to overstate how much the [climate] research has focused on the four- and five- degree scenarios, RCP 8.5 being one of them. And those are looking less and less plausible by the year,” said Burgess.

Relying on not only outdated scenarios, but scenarios which are no longer plausible, for research and policy has big implications for how we think about, act and spend money on climate change issues, the authors said.

“There’s a need for these scenarios to be updated more frequently. Researchers may be using a 2005 scenario, but we need a 2022 perspective,” said Pielke Jr. “You’re going to have better policies if you have a more accurate understanding of the problem, whatever the political implications are for one side or the other.”

The authors stress that 3.6 degrees F (2 C) of warming will still take a dramatic toll on the planet, and this is no time for complacency.

“We’re getting close to our two-degree target, but we definitely have a lot more work to do if we’re going to get to 1.5,” said Burgess.

In the newly published study, participants who cycled on a stationary bike or took a brisk walk for an hour-and-a-half after getting a jab produced more antibodies in the following four weeks compared to participants who sat or continued with their daily routine post-immunization. The researchers found similar results when they ran an experiment with mice and treadmills.

Antibodies are essentially the body’s “search and destroy” line of defense against viruses, bacteria, fungi and parasites. Vaccines help the immune system learn how to identify something foreign and respond by bolstering the body’s defenses, including an increase in antibodies.

“Our preliminary results are the first to demonstrate a specific amount of time can enhance the body’s antibody response to the Pfizer-BioNtech COVID-19 vaccine and two vaccines for influenza,” said Kinesiology Professor Marian Kohut, lead author of the paper published in the journal Brain, Behavior, and Immunity.

The researchers said the study’s findings could directly benefit people with a range of fitness levels. Nearly half of the participants in the experiment had a BMI in the overweight or obese category. During 90 minutes of exercise, they focused on maintaining a pace that kept their heart rate around 120-140 beats per minute rather than distance.

In the study, the researchers also tested whether participants could get the same bump in antibodies with just 45-minutes of exercising. They found the shorter workout did not increase the participants’ antibody levels. Kohut said the research team may test whether 60 minutes is enough to generate a response in a follow-up study.

Why the boost?

As to why prolonged, mild- to moderate-intensity exercise could improve the body’s immune response, Kohut said there may be multiple reasons. Working out increases blood and lymph flow, which helps circulate immune cells. As these cells move around the body, they’re more likely to detect something that’s foreign.

Data from the mouse experiment also suggested a type of protein (i.e., interferon alpha) produced during exercise helps generate virus-specific antibodies and T- cells.

“But a lot more research is needed to answer the why and how. There are so many changes that take place when we exercise — metabolic, biochemical, neuroendocrine, circulatory. So, there’s probably a combination of factors that contribute to the antibody response we found in our study,” said Kohut.

The researchers are continuing to track the antibody response in the participants six months post-immunization and have launched another study that focuses on exercise’s effects on people who receive booster shots.

Postdoctoral Researcher Tyanez Jones, Graduate Assistant Jessica Alley and Justus Hallam, a graduate student at the time of the study, co-authored the recently published paper with Marian Kohut. Kohut said the research team also received a lot of help from undergraduate students, including students from the ISU Science Bound Scholars Program.

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Finding pleasure in food comes from how our brain responds to what we are eating. In this study researchers were looking at the brain’s response to sugar and fat. Using a gelatin dessert and pudding researchers altered the sugar, fat, and texture of the foods. They found that none of the patients experienced eating behavior changes with sugar, but they did with fat. Those with acute lower back pain who later recovered were most likely to lose pleasure in eating the pudding and show disrupted satiety signals — the communication from the digestive system to the brain — while those with acute lower back pain whose pain persisted at one year did not initially have the same change in their eating behavior. But chronic lower back pain patients did report that eventually foods high in fat and carbohydrates, like ice cream and cookies, became problematic for them over time and brain scans showed disrupted satiety signals.

“It is important to note, this change in food liking did not change their caloric intake,” said Geha, who first authored a previous study published in PAIN that recent research is building on. “These findings suggest obesity in patients with chronic pain may not be caused by lack of movement but maybe they change how they eat.”

Brain scans of the study participants revealed that the nucleus accumbens — a small area of the brain mostly known for its role in decision-making — may offer clues to who is at risk to experience a long-term change in eating behavior. Researchers found the structure of this area of the brain was normal in of patients who initially experienced changes in their eating behavior but whose pain did not become chronic. However, patients whose eating behavior was normal, but whose pain became chronic had smaller nucleus accumbens. Interestingly, the nucleus accumbens predicted pleasure ratings only in chronic back pain patients and in patients who became chronic after an acute bout of back pain suggesting that this region becomes critical in motivated behavior of chronic pain patients. Previous research by Geha, found a smaller nucleus accumbens can indicate if someone is at a greater risk of developing chronic pain.

Additional authors include Yezhe Lin, Ph.D., and Gelsina Stanley of the University of Rochester, Ivan de Araujo, Ph.D., of Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and Dana Small, Ph.D., of Yale University. The research was funded by National Institute on Drugs Abuse.

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Until this study, little was known about durability of protection following three doses, especially during periods of Delta or Omicron predominance in the U.S.

“The mRNA vaccines, including the booster shot, are very effective, but effectiveness declines over time. Our findings suggest that additional doses may be necessary to maintain protection against COVID-19, especially for high-risk populations,” said study co-author Brian Dixon, PhD, MPA, Regenstrief Institute and Indiana University Richard M. Fairbanks School of Public Health director of public health informatics. “We also found that people who are Hispanic or Black are half as likely to have a third vaccine dose than people who are white, making people who are Hispanic or Black more vulnerable to severe COVID and highlighting the need for public health officials to double down on efforts to protect these vulnerable populations.”

According to a CDC dashboard, as of February 8, 2022, among Americans 65 years or older who received a booster dose: 72.3 percent were people who are white, 8.9 percent were people who are Hispanic, and 7.6 percent were people who are Black. The rates among people who are Black or Hispanic are lower than the proportion of those groups with two doses, and these proportions are lower than the percentage of the U.S. population composed of people from those groups, indicating disparities in who has received third doses in the U.S. In the last two weeks, however, higher rates of vaccination have been observed among these minority groups (16.9 percent of recent boosters are among people who are Hispanic; 12.7 percent of recent boosters are among people who are Black). In the study, among patients who are white in the ED/UC, 12 percent had received a third dose compared to 7 percent of patients who are Hispanic and 6 percent of patients who are Black. Similar disparities in third dose administration were observed among those patients hospitalized for severe COVID-19.

Overall, the study reported that individuals with second and third doses of an mRNA vaccine had greater protection against hospitalizations (severe disease) than against emergency department/urgent care (ED/UC) visits (symptoms which may not require hospitalization). Vaccine effectiveness was also lower overall during the Omicron period than during the Delta period.

Vaccine effectiveness against ED/UC visits declined from 97 percent within the first two months of receipt of a booster to 89 percent effectiveness at four months or more during the Delta-predominant period (summer/early fall 2021). During the Omicron-predominant period (late fall 2021/winter 2021-22), vaccine effectiveness against ED/UC visits was 87 percent during the first two months after a third dose, decreasing to 66 percent at four months after a third dose.

After the third dose, protection against Delta variant-associated hospitalization declined from 96 percent within two months to 76 percent after four months or longer. Vaccine effectiveness against Omicron variant-associated hospitalizations was 91 percent during the first two months declining to 78 percent at four months.

“Our findings confirm the importance of receiving a third dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine to prevent moderate-to-severe COVID-19 illness, especially among those with comorbidities,” said study co-author Shaun Grannis, M.D., M.S., vice president for data and analytics at Regenstrief Institute and professor of family medicine at Indiana University School of Medicine. “That protection conferred by mRNA vaccines waned in the months following a third vaccine dose supports further consideration of booster doses to sustain protection against moderate-to-severe COVID-19 illness.”

“Waning Effectiveness 2-dose and 3-dose mRNA Vaccines Against COVID-19-Associated Emergency Department and Urgent Care Encounters and Hospitalizations Among Adults During Periods of Delta and Omicron Variant Predominance — VISION Network, 10 States, August 2021-January 2022” is published in the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

The CDC collaborated with six U.S. healthcare systems plus the Regenstrief Institute, to create the VISION network to assess COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness. In addition to Regenstrief Institute, other members are Columbia University Irving Medical Center, HealthPartners, Intermountain Healthcare, Kaiser Permanente Northern California, Kaiser Permanente Northwest and University of Colorado. Regenstrief contributes data and expertise to the VISION Network.

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Researchers Tarek Amer (@tarekamerphd) of Columbia University and Harvard University, Jordana Wynn (@jordwynn) of Harvard University, and Lynn Hasher of the University of Toronto looked at several behavioral and neuroimaging studies, which show that older adults have difficulty suppressing information that is no longer relevant and that when searching for a specific memory, they often retrieve other, irrelevant memories along with it. The studies also showed that when given a cognitive task, older adults rely more heavily on previous knowledge than younger adults do.

While the researchers focus primarily on the difficulties that these cluttered memories may pose, they also highlight a few situations in which these crowded memoryscapes may be useful. “Evidence suggests that older adults show preserved, and at times enhanced, creativity as a function of enriched memories,” the researchers write. They further hypothesize that older adults may be well served by their prior knowledge when it comes to decision-making, where they can pull on their accumulated wisdom.

With continued study and increased understanding of how memory works in older adults, researchers are hopeful that they may be able to find new ways to help them. They write, “It is possible that the increased binding and richer encodings of older adults can even be leveraged to improve older adults’ learning and memory.”

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It was developed by Xin Zhang, a College of Engineering professor of mechanical engineering, and her team of scientists at BU’s Photonics Center. They’re experts in metamaterials, a type of engineered structure created from small unit cells that might be unspectacular alone, but when grouped together in a precise way, get new superpowers not found in nature. Metamaterials, for instance, can bend, absorb, or manipulate waves — such as electromagnetic waves, sound waves, or radio waves. Each unit cell, also called a resonator, is typically arranged in a repeating pattern in rows and columns; they can be designed in different sizes and shapes, and placed at different orientations, depending on which waves they’re designed to influence.

Metamaterials can have many novel functions. Zhang, who is also a professor of electrical and computer engineering, biomedical engineering, and materials science and engineering, has designed an acoustic metamaterial that blocks sound without stopping airflow (imagine quieter jet engines and air conditioners) and a magnetic metamaterial that can improve the quality of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machines used for medical diagnosis.

Now, Zhang and her team have taken their work a step further with the wearable metamaterial. The dome-shaped device, which fits over a person’s head and can be worn during a brain scan, boosts MRI performance, creating crisper images that can be captured at twice the normal speed.

The helmet is fashioned from a series of magnetic metamaterial resonators, which are made from 3D-printed plastic tubes wrapped in copper wiring, grouped on an array, and precisely arranged to channel the magnetic field of the MRI machine. Placing the magnetic metamaterial — in helmet form or as the originally designed flat array — near the part of the body to be scanned, says Zhang, could make MRIs less costly and more time efficient for doctors, radiologists, and patients — all while improving image quality.

Eventually, the magnetic metamaterial has the potential to be used in conjunction with cheaper low-field MRI machines to make the technology more widely available, particularly in the developing world.

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