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Model predicts where ticks, Lyme disease will appear next in Midwest states

By drawing from decades of studies, scientists created a timeline marking the arrival of black-legged ticks, also known as deer ticks, in hundreds of counties across 10 Midwestern states. They used these data — along with an analysis of county-level landscape features associated with the spread of ticks — to build a model that can predict where ticks are likely to appear in future years.
Black-legged ticks can carry the bacterium that causes Lyme disease, an infection that can affect the nervous system, heart and joints. The new model will help local authorities prepare for the onset of Lyme disease in their counties before the first cases appear, researchers say. They report their findings in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B.
Black-legged ticks were first found in the Midwest in the 1960s in a few counties in Wisconsin and Minnesota. The first known case of what was later named Lyme disease occurred in the Midwest in 1969. Since then, black-legged ticks have expanded into numerous counties across those states and into Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. The first Lyme disease cases in those counties track closely with the first reports of ticks.
Understanding that local health departments report new Lyme disease cases in their counties to federal officials and that the National Land Cover Database includes information about landscape features of each county, the researchers chose to use county-level data in their model. Their goal was to identify factors associated with the spread of ticks and Lyme disease to new counties.
“We used historical information to build a model that forecasts the future spread of Lyme disease in the Midwest,” said Brian Allan, an entomology professor at the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign who led the research with former doctoral student Allison Gardner, a professor of biology and ecology at the University of Maine.
“Our model was based on a few landscape factors that were highly predictive of the spread of ticks and Lyme disease and could be used as an early warning system to forecast areas likely to undergo invasion next,” Gardner said.
The researchers observed “a wavelike pattern of spread, where counties that get invaded with black-legged ticks tend to be adjacent to a county that has already been invaded,” Allan said. “And in some Midwestern states, we see that areas adjacent to major rivers are invaded in sequence. In Illinois, for example, the ticks first arrived along the Illinois River and then spread up and down the river quite quickly.”
The percentage of forest cover in a county also was important in predicting whether black-legged ticks would occur there. These three factors — proximity to a county where ticks had been detected, the presence of a river and the percentage of forest cover — together can predict the future occurrence of ticks in counties where none had been previously reported, the researchers found.
To test their model, Gardner used data gathered before 2012 to determine how ticks would spread into new areas in the Midwest from 2012 to 2016. The model predicted the appearance of ticks in new counties with greater than 90% accuracy.
“It was a little surprising to me that so few parameters could make these predictions with such high accuracy,” Gardner said.
Looking forward, the researchers identified 42 additional counties in the Midwest where black-legged ticks are likely to be detected by the end of 2021. The evidence suggests those ticks will carry the Lyme disease bacterium.
Understanding where ticks may be present before they have been reported may prompt public health officials and clinicians to include Lyme disease as a possible diagnosis for patients appearing with symptoms consistent with the infection, Allan said.
“If they don’t think the tick occurs in their area, doctors may be reluctant to diagnose a patient with Lyme disease,” he said.
Birds: Competition for mates leads to a deeper voice than expected based on size

An analysis of the songs of most of the world’s passerine birds reveals that the frequency at which birds sing mostly depends on body size, but is also influenced by sexual selection. The new study from researchers of the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology and colleagues suggests that habitat characteristics do not affect song frequency, thereby refuting a long-standing theory.
Many animals use acoustic signals for communication. These signals have evolved to maximize the effectiveness of the transmission and reception of the sounds, because this helps finding a mate or avoiding predation. One of the fundamental characteristics of acoustic signals is the frequency of the sound. In forested habitats, acoustic signals become attenuated because of sound absorption and scattering from foliage, which is particularly problematic for high-frequency sounds. Hence, a theory from the 1970s predicts that animals living in habitats with dense vegetation emit lower-frequency sounds compared to those living in open areas.
A team of researchers led by Bart Kempenaers from the Max Planck Institute for Ornithology in Seewiesen and Tomáš Albrecht from the Charles University in Praha and the Czech Academy of Sciences analysed the variation in song frequency of more than 5,000 passerine bird species, encompassing 85% of all passerines and half of all avian taxa. PhD student Peter Mikula collected song recordings primarily from xeno-canto, a citizen science repository of bird vocalizations, and from the Macaulay Library of the Cornell Lab of Ornithology.
Relationship between song frequency and body size.
Contrary to the theory, the study reveals that the peak frequency of passerine song does not depend on habitat type. If anything, the data suggest that species living in densely vegetated habitats sing at lower frequencies, which is the opposite of what was predicted. As expected from basic physical principles, the researchers found a strong relationship between song frequency and body size and an effect of shared ancestry. “Both limit the range of sound frequencies an animal can produce,” says first author Peter Mikula. Heavier species sing at lower frequencies simply due to the larger vibratory structures of the vocal apparatus.
The study further reveals that species in which males are larger than females produce songs with lower frequencies than expected from their size. “This supports the hypothesis that the frequency of acoustic signals is affected by competition for access to mates,” says Bart Kempenaers. Song frequency may act as an indicator of an individual’s size and therefore of its dominance or fighting abilities. Thus, song frequency could influence reproductive success through competition with other males or even because it influences male attractiveness to females.
“Our results suggest that the global variation in passerine song frequency is mostly driven by natural and sexual selection causing evolutionary shifts in body size rather than by habitat-related selection on sound propagation,” summarizes Tomáš Albrecht.
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Materials provided by Max-Planck-Gesellschaft. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Mouse-controlled mouse helps researchers understand intentional control

We know that the brain can direct thoughts, but how this is achieved is difficult to determine. Researchers at the Sainsbury Wellcome Centre have devised a brain machine interface (BMI) that allows mice to learn to guide a cursor using only their brain activity. By monitoring this mouse-controlled mouse moving to a target location to receive a reward, the researchers were able to study how the brain represents intentional control.
The study, published today in Neuron, sheds light on how the brain represents causally-controlled objects. The researchers found that when mice were controlling the cursor, brain activity in the higher visual cortex was goal-directed and contained information about the animal’s intention. This research could one day help to improve BMI design.
“Brain machine interfaces are devices that allow a person or animal to control a computer with their mind. In humans, that could be controlling a robotic arm to pick up a cup of water, or moving a cursor on a computer to type a message using the mind. In animals, we are using these devices as models for understanding how to make BMIs better,” said the paper’s first author, Dr Kelly Clancy, who completed the study at the Sainsbury Wellcome Centre, University College London, following previous work at Biozentrum, University of Basel.
“Right now, BMIs tend to be difficult for humans to use and it takes a long time to learn how to control a robotic arm for example. Once we understand the neural circuits supporting how intentional control is learned, which this work is starting to elucidate, we will hopefully be able to make it easier for people to use BMIs,” said co-author of the paper, Professor Tom Mrsic-Flogel, Director of the Sainsbury Wellcome Centre, University College London.
Traditionally it has been difficult to study how causally-controlled objects are represented in the brain. Imagine trying to determine how the brain represents a cursor it is controlling versus a cursor it is passively watching. There are motor signals in the first case but not in the second, so it is difficult to compare the two. With BMIs, the subject doesn’t physically move, so a cleaner comparison can be made.
In this study, the researchers used a technique called widefield brain imaging, which allowed them to look at the whole dorsal surface of the cortex while the animal was using the BMI. This technique enabled an unbiased screen of the cortex to locate the areas that were involved in learning to intentionally control the cursor.
Visual cortical areas in mice were found to be involved during the task. These areas included the parietal cortex, an area of the brain implicated in intention in humans.
“Researchers have been studying the parietal cortex in humans for a long time. However, we weren’t necessarily expecting this area to pop out in our unbiased screen of the mouse brain. There seems to be something special about parietal cortex as it sits between sensory and motor areas in the brain and may act as a way station between them,” added Dr Kelly Clancy.
By delving deeper into how this way station works, the researchers hope to understand more about how control is exerted by the brain. In this study, mice learned to map their brain activity to sensory feedback. This is analogous to how we learn to interact with the world — for example, we adjust how we use a computer mouse depending on its gain setting. Our brains build representations of how objects typically behave, and execute actions accordingly. By understanding more about how such rules are generated and updated in the brain, the researchers hope to be able to improve BMIs.
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Materials provided by Sainsbury Wellcome Centre. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Covid: New variant found ‘due to hard work of UK scientists’
Similar new variants of the coronavirus may be circulating undetected around the world, scientists say.
Covid jab ‘very likely’ to protect against new variant
If it doesn’t, the boss of BioNTech says its vaccine could be refined very quickly.
Overcoming Digital FOMO

One reason people succumb to digital clutter like clogged inboxes and excessive browser tabs is that they’re being too clingy with digital content.
There’s an overwhelm of digital content, and you may feel the need to capture and save lots of it, hopefully to be digested later.
Having an intelligent capture system can help, but it’s also wise to reduce the flow if you’re frequently overflowing your inboxes with new ideas.
Here are some tips to help you overcome digital clinginess.
- Test being 100% caffeine-free for at least a month. Regular caffeine consumption can make it harder to prioritize by making trivial items seem more important than they are. Caffeine is also addictive, and any addiction tends to encourage other addictive patterns, thereby weakening your self-discipline.
- Use the OHIO rule: Only handle it once. Make each decision about what to do with digital content as soon as it comes up.
- Make no your default. Each piece of digital content is an invitation that must be justified. Unless you can say “hell yes” to it, let it go and close it.
- Favor immersive learning instead of chaotic learning. If a topic really interests you, do a focused deep dive into it. Read several books. Seek and out read worthwhile articles. Take a course. Then let it go completely when you feel you’ve digested enough info to satisfy you for now. When you realize that there’s something meaningful and new to explore in that same field, plan another focused deep dive. Consume content from a full glass, not a sippy cup.
- Ignore suggestions except when you’re actively asking for them. What would you read next if you had no “to read” list? Could you invite suggestions, pick and buy several new books, and then read them till done? When you have your stack, you can ignore all other suggestions till you actually need more.
- Consider a now or never framing when faced with a quick suggestion. Handle it now, or let it go forever. If you decline it once and it’s important enough, it will be raised again.
- Don’t look. You can use social media without ever looking at other people’s feeds. Just interact in your own space regarding the ideas you share. Don’t subject yourself to a flurry of random ideas from other people that will clutter your mind multiple times per day.
- Look at your goals and projects more than at other people’s input and suggestions. If your goals aren’t as interesting, set more interesting goals. If you keep turning your attention away from your goals, your goals are probably too boring.
- Ask anti-FOMO questions. You may have a tendency to over-focus on questions like “What if I need this?” when considering whether to keep something. Develop a counter-voice that pushes back with objections like “Could this be clutter?” and “What difference will this make to my life 10 years from now?” and “Shouldn’t I be working on my goals instead?”
- Limit subscriptions. Set a limit for how many email lists you can subscribe to, like a max of five. When you add one, drop an old one. Follow no more than 10 YouTube channels. For each subscription, ask how it’s helping you achieve your goals.
- Practice digital minimalism. Delete apps you don’t love. Clear your desktop of clutter. Reduce your bookmarks by 80%. Remove distracting visual reminders that your brain must constantly process. If it’s on the screen in front of you, some part of your brain is processing it.
- Delete accumulated digital clutter. Would you feel lighter if you deleted your least relevant terabyte of saved data? Of all the data you’ve piled up, what will you actually need to keep during the next decade or two of your life? Is any of that anchoring you to the past? Would you discover some extra freedom by letting much of it go? If you only kept 50 gigs, what would you keep?
Be careful with digital FOMO because this mindset can really clutter up your life if you don’t stay on top of it. When you notice that some part of your digital life is becoming bloated and unwieldy, reset your approach. Demolish the bloat and restore a sense of ease and lightness.
Coronavirus: Impact of new variant on children investigated
Experts urgently assess whether the mutation of coronavirus spreads more easily among the young.
Biotech cotton key to eliminating devastating pest from US and Mexico

For much of the past century, the invasive pink bollworm wreaked havoc in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico — inflicting tens of millions of dollars in damage annually to cotton on both sides of the border.
A multifaceted strategy combining genetically engineered cotton with classical pest control tactics eradicated the pink bollworm from cotton-producing areas of the continental U.S. and Mexico, according to a new study to be published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
“Although pink bollworm remains a daunting pest in over 100 countries, our strategic coalition rid the U.S. and Mexico of this invasive insect,” said lead study author Bruce Tabashnik, a Regents Professor in the University of Arizona Department of Entomology.
“By analyzing computer simulations and 21 years of field data from Arizona, we discovered that genetically engineered cotton and the release of billions of sterile pink bollworm moths acted synergistically to suppress this pest,” said Jeffrey Fabrick, a co-author of the study and a research entomologist with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Agricultural Research Service.
According to the study, the eradication program saved U.S. cotton growers $192 million from 2014 to 2019. It also helped to reduce insecticides sprayed against all cotton pests by 82%, preventing the application of over a million pounds of insecticides per year in Arizona.
A Long Road to Suppression
Native to Australasia — a region that comprises Australia, New Zealand and some neighboring islands — the pink bollworm is one of the world’s most invasive insects. After female moths lay their eggs on cotton plants, the caterpillars hatch, bore into cotton bolls and devour the seeds within. Their feasting disrupts production of cotton lint.
This voracious pest was first detected in the U.S. in 1917. Using field data from 1969, the new study estimates that over 200 billion pink bollworm caterpillars infested cotton fields in Arizona that year. In 1990, the pest cost Arizona cotton growers $32 million in damages, despite $16 million invested in insecticides to control it.
The tide began to turn in 1996, with the introduction of cotton genetically engineered to produce proteins from the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis. The proteins in Bt cotton kill pink bollworm and other caterpillar pests but are harmless to people and most beneficial insects.
Although Bt cotton kills essentially 100% of susceptible pink bollworm caterpillars, the pest rapidly evolved resistance to Bt proteins in laboratory experiments at the University of Arizona and in Bt cotton fields in India.
To delay pest resistance, UArizona scientists worked with farmers to develop and implement a strategy of planting non-Bt cotton refuges to allow survival of susceptible insects. Tabashnik’s team also determined the mutations that cause resistance in the lab and used DNA screening to monitor for those adaptations in the field.
Within 10 years, the use of Bt cotton reduced pink bollworm populations by 90%. For the first time since the pest’s arrival, eradication seemed within grasp.
‘Everything but the Kitchen Sink’
“In contrast with the rapid evolution of pest resistance to genetically engineered crops elsewhere, Bt cotton was suppressing this pest in Arizona for 10 years,” Tabashnik explained. “We said, ‘Let’s take this a step further. Let’s throw everything but the kitchen sink at it and get rid of it. If not forever, for as long as we can sustain it.'”
In a concerted, binational effort, University of Arizona Cooperative Extension and research scientists joined forces with cotton growers, the biotech industry and government partners to devise the first program of its kind to eradicate the invasive pest.
In addition to traditional pest control tactics, such as plowing cotton fields after harvest to reduce the pest’s overwintering survival, a novel strategy largely replacing refuges of non-Bt cotton with mass releases of sterile pink bollworm moths was initiated in Arizona in 2006.
The sterile moths were released from airplanes by the billions to overwhelm field populations of the pest. In concert, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency waived the requirement for planting refuges, allowing farmers in Arizona to plant up to 100% Bt cotton.
To test the success of this multipronged attack, scientists with the University of Arizona College of Agriculture and Life Sciences conducted computer simulations and analyzed field data collected in Arizona from 1998 to 2018. Their results show neither of the two tactics would have worked alone.
“In this era plagued by invasive organisms, as well as doubts about the power of science and controversy about genetic engineering, the study exemplifies the tremendous benefits of collaboration and synergy between biotechnology and classical tactics,” Tabashnik said. “We hope the concepts illustrated here will inspire integrated approaches to combat other invasive life forms.”
Light signal emitted during photosynthesis used to quickly screen crops

An international effort called Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency (RIPE) aims to transform crops’ ability to turn sunlight and carbon dioxide into higher yields. To achieve this, scientists are analyzing thousands of plants to find out what tweaks to the plant’s structure or its cellular machinery could increase production. University of Illinois researchers have revealed a new approach to estimate the photosynthetic capacity of crops to pinpoint these top-performing traits and speed up the screening process, according to a new study in the Journal of Experimental Botany.
“Photosynthesis is the entry point for carbon dioxide to become all the things that allow plants to grow, but measuring canopy photosynthesis is really difficult,” said Carl Bernacchi, a Research Plant Physiologist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, who is based at Illinois’ Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology. “Most methods are time-consuming and only measure a single leaf when it’s the function of all leaves on all plants that really matters in agriculture.”
Bernacchi’s team uses two spectral instruments simultaneously — a hyperspectral camera for scanning crops and a spectrometer used to record very detailed information about sunlight — to quickly measure a signal called Solar Induced Fluorescence (SIF) that is emitted by plants when they become ‘energy-excited’ during photosynthesis.
With this SIF signal, the team gains critical insights about photosynthesis that could ultimately lead to improving crop yields.
They discovered that a key part of the SIF signal better correlates with photosynthetic capacity. This ‘SIF yield’ accounts for only a fraction of the energy emitted as SIF by plants to the energy captured by plants in total, but it carries important information.
“With this insight, we can use a couple of instruments in a synergistic way to make more accurate estimates, and we can make these tools and pipelines more accessible to people who are interested in advancing the translation of photosynthesis,” said Peng Fu, a postdoctoral researcher who led this work at Illinois.
In this study, they picked out specific bands of light that are known to be linked to SIF (and are already well understood physiologically) to better understand what hyperspectral data is actually needed to make these estimates.
In the past, they relied on expensive hyperspectral cameras that captured thousands of bands of light. “However, this study suggests that much cheaper cameras could be used instead now that we know what bands of light are needed,” said Matthew Siebers, a postdoctoral researcher at Illinois.
These tools could speed up progress by orders of magnitude, said Katherine Meacham-Hensold, also a postdoctoral researcher at Illinois. “This technology is game-changing for researchers who are refining photosynthesis as a means to help realize the yields that we will need to feed humanity this century.”
Realizing Increased Photosynthetic Efficiency (RIPE) is an international research project that is improving photosynthesis to equip farmers worldwide with higher-yielding crops to ensure everyone has enough food to lead a healthy and productive life. RIPE is supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the U.S. Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research, and the U.K. Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office, who are committed to ensuring Global Access and making the project’s technologies available to the farmers who need them the most.
