Beware of false negatives in diagnostic testing of COVID-19

One of the most commonly used diagnostic tools, particularly during this pandemic, is the reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction test (RT-PCR), which uses a person’s respiratory sample to detect viral particles and determine if the person may have been exposed to a virus.

Laboratory professionals across the U.S. and the globe have used RT-PCR to find out if a person has been infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. These tests have played a critical role in our nation’s response to the pandemic. But, while they are important, researchers at Johns Hopkins have found that the chance of a false negative result — when a virus is not detected in a person who actually is, or recently has been, infected — is greater than 1 in 5 and, at times, far higher. The researchers caution that the predictive value of these tests may not always yield accurate results, and timing of the test seems to matter greatly in the accuracy.

In the report on the findings published May 13 in the journal Annals of Internal Medicine, the researchers found that the probability of a false negative result decreases from 100% on Day 1 of being infected to 67% on Day 4. The false negative rate decreased to 20% on Day 8 (three days after a person begins experiencing symptoms). They also found that on the day a person started experiencing actual symptoms of illness, the average false negative rate was 38%. In addition, the false negative rate began to increase again from 21% on Day 9 to 66% on Day 21.

The study, which analyzed seven previously published studies on RT-PCR performance, adds to evidence that caution should be used in the interpretation of negative test results, particularly for individuals likely to have been exposed or who have symptoms consistent with COVID-19.

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Materials provided by Johns Hopkins Medicine. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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Countering COVID-19 impacts on children from low-income households

The COVID-19 pandemic has magnified the social, educational and health care disparities already plaguing the nearly 40 million Americans the U.S. Census Bureau estimates are living in poverty. Perhaps the hardest hit members of that population, say three pediatricians at Johns Hopkins Children’s Center and Children’s National Hospital, are children from low-income households who are experiencing major disruptions in already inconsistent routines and less-than-adequate resources critical to learning, nutrition and social development because of restrictions in place to curb the spread of the disease.

In a viewpoint article published in the May 13 issue of JAMA Pediatrics, the physicians provide examples of how efforts to keep COVID-19 in check have disproportionally impacted the nearly 1 in 5 U.S. children whose family incomes are below the poverty level.

“For example, many school districts are engaging in distance learning during the pandemic, but there is wide variability in the ability to access quality educational instruction, digital technology and internet service, especially by rural and urban students,” says Megan Tschudy, M.D., M.P.H., assistant medical director at the Harriet Lane Clinic of Johns Hopkins Children’s Center and assistant professor of pediatrics at the Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine. “In some urban areas, as many as one-third of students are not participating in online classes because of challenges accessing the internet.”

The authors cite other difficulties that COVID-19 policies and regulations have placed on children from low-income households, including missing months of school by a student population commonly burdened by chronic absenteeism, the inability to get nutritious meals previously provided before and during school hours, and removal of key resources available at schools such as “consistent and caring adults who can help build resiliency and offer holistic support.”

To counter the increased disparities brought about by the pandemic and help prevent children from low-income households “experiencing consequences for a lifetime,” the authors recommend that future COVID-19 legislation target child health and well-being. They say that this effort should include expanding services and increasing funding for health and nutrition assistance programs, improving child tax credits, and expanding access to high-speed internet and versatile electronic devices so that all children can participate in distance learning.

Along with Tschudy, the other authors of the viewpoint article are Danielle Dooley, M.D., medical director for community affairs and population health, and Asad Bandealy, M.D., pediatrician, both of whom are at Children’s National Hospital in Washington, D.C.

For information from Johns Hopkins Medicine about the coronavirus pandemic, visit hopkinsmedicine.org/coronavirus. For information on the coronavirus from throughout the Johns Hopkins enterprise, including the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and The Johns Hopkins University, visit coronavirus.jhu.edu.

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Materials provided by Johns Hopkins Medicine. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

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Framing the Problem

People often get stuck with certain ways of framing their problems that actually prevent them from creating solutions. Usually they learn these frames from other people, especially people who swear that a particular frame worked for them. But that doesn’t mean the same frame will work for everyone else.

Suppose you define a financial problem as a mindset problem or a problem with limiting beliefs. These limiting beliefs are holding me back! I’m stuck in a scarcity mindset! This is why I’m still struggling!

Maybe your mindset could use some improvement, but you’d be surprised at how many problems don’t actually require mindset shifts in order to solve them. I’ve met plenty of wealthy people, and I can assure you that many of them have the same old limiting beliefs about money that everyone else does. Meanwhile some people think they need to resolve all their limiting beliefs about money in order to attract more money. That isn’t true at all.

Similarly you can have a really abundant mindset towards money and still not attract much of it. I’ve met some financially broke people who seem to have abundance-aligned mindsets, yet money doesn’t flow to them very well. They may have good mindsets, but a good mindset doesn’t pay the bills.

Framing a problem as a mindset issue may not actually get the problem solved. This is especially true for financial and social problems.

Many problems are easier to solve when you define them differently. For instance, if you define your financial and social problems as behavioral issues rather than mindset issues, you may find them easier to solve. What would a behavioral solution look like? This would include taking different actions and training yourself to adopt different habits.

You may also find such problems easier to solve if you define them as spiritual problems. What would a spiritual solution look like? This could include looking at the character sculpting purpose behind the problem. You’d see the problem as meaningful and purposeful, which can reduce your resistance to it, so you approach it as a worthwhile invitation rather than a curse.

When you run into a problem that isn’t budging even after years of struggle, clarify how you’ve been framing it, and switch to a different frame for a while.

So if you’ve been defining your money struggles as a mindset problem, try switching to a behavioral frame (you’re taking the wrong actions) or a spiritual frame (you’re resisting the purpose of this challenge) or a social frame (you’re serving the wrong people) or some other way of defining the problem. Then develop solutions based on the new frame.

Don’t be a one-frame wonder. You will get stuck if you do that. Eventually a problem will come along that doesn’t fit your frame very well, and it will be nearly impossible for you to solve it using your “one frame to rule them all.”

We fall into these traps because a good frame will work until it doesn’t. You may get good results for some problems using a mindset frame, but eventually you’ll encounter a problem that isn’t impressed by your mindset-based approach. It will persist no matter how much mindset work you do. But a behavioral solution might solve the problem for good.

Many problems become much easier to solve when you switch frames. Look at the problem from a different angle. Ask: How else could I define this problem?

And if you can’t think of at least 10 different ways to define your problem, well… then you have a mindset issue. 😉

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Coronavirus: UK authorises anti-viral drug remdesivir

Remdesivir shortens recovery time by about four days, research suggests.

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Coronavirus deaths fall to six-week low

Early May bank holiday delays mean the true death figures are likely to have been even lower.

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Coronavirus: Can it affect eyesight?

The prime minister’s chief adviser says his vision was affected by coronavirus.

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Health24.com | OPINION | Covid-19: May be prudent to over-estimate the mental health consequences of the virus

The Covid-19 pandemic has affected millions around the world and damaged the mental well-being of many.

This damage may be hard to reverse without prompt action. Coupled with the social isolation linked to the prolonged lockdown, the pandemic is expected to lead to new episodes of mental illness for many South Africans and exacerbate pre-existing mental illness.

Thirty months after the SARS outbreak in 2003 (the first massive infectious disease outbreak of the 21st century), a third of survivors  met criteria for any psychiatric disorder; a quarter met criteria for post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD); and approximately 16% had depressive disorders. These statistics underscore the importance of detecting and treating psychiatric illness in people with Covid-19, and in their contacts.

We cannot ignore the profound negative effects of stress, fear, profound loss and grief. If evidence from other countries is anything to go by, the physical and mental health, and social and economic impacts of the disease, will be inordinately borne by poor South Africans (more than 50% of South Africans live below the poverty line). Billions of people around the world have either been or currently are in full or partial lockdown. This may be a mammoth “experiment” but the consequent physical distancing has undoubtedly slowed the transmission chain.

Stressors during the pandemic

That said, the pandemic and the lockdown, independently and in combination, have unintended consequences by severing family ties and inhibiting  social norms, values and rituals, and will arguably exert a severe toll on the mental health of people  – not only in the immediate and short-term but for many years to come. 

Quarantines can lead to PTSD symptoms, depression, and alcohol abuse and dependence, with some evidence that quarantines of longer duration are associated with poorer mental health, specifically PTSD, over time. During previous infectious disease epidemics, common stressors endorsed during quarantine were a long period of quarantine, fears of being infected, frustration, boredom, shortage of supplies, inadequate information from public health authorities, financial loss, and stigma. These are all stressors that are being endorsed during the current pandemic.

Research on the mental health consequences of economic crises has taught us about the significant relationship between severe economic recession and population-level psychological distress, including the emergence, and worsening, of mood, anxiety and substance-related disorders and suicide. Physical isolation, economic worries, heightened anxiety and guilt (about exposing others to the virus or not doing enough to help others) are all risk factors for suicidal behaviours (this includes suicidal thoughts, attempts, and completed suicide). 

In a recent article, Danny Horesh and Adam Brown contend that like other mass traumatic events, the Covid-19 pandemic is expected to result in PTSD, with typical features of hypervigilance (centred on protective measures to avoid infection), intrusive thoughts (related to infection, health, fears of dying), avoidance, and negative mood and cognitions (around fears of the world changing and the future being bleak) that will be subjectively distressing and persistently impact on day-to-day functioning over time.  

Unique challenges

In the face of the restrictions and accompanying economic hardship, South Africa’s youth and  persons with pre-existing mental illness may be especially hard hit by the potentially severe and long-term mental health consequences of the Covid-19 crisis. The stress, fear and emotional pain induced by the rapid and aggressive spread of infection, as well as the scale of prolonged grief from the sudden and massive loss of life, will be felt for a long time, and by successive generations. Like other pandemics, this one is also characterised  by unpredictability, widespread community impact, mass fatalities, and persistence as American scholars Ginny Sprang and Miriam Silman have pointed out. 

The COVID-19 pandemic also poses unique challenges for the management of hospital inpatients and outpatients with psychiatric illnesses. Prior to the pandemic, psychiatric services in our public sector, especially at district and community levels, were already overstretched and under-resourced in terms of bed capacity and shortages of mental health personnel.

The deployment of these staff within hospitals to assist with the screening and management of suspected and confirmed Covid-19 cases in general medical settings, and the closure of psychiatric wards because of Covid-19 infection, further add to the challenge of providing adequate psychiatric care. Psychiatric units in public hospitals are typically characterised by bed shortages, overcrowding and sharing of dining, bathroom and daily activity spaces (e.g. for group activities such as occupational therapy and group psychotherapy). 

Given their compromised and disordered mental states, disorganised behaviour, impulsivity, sub-optimal self-care and impaired insight, patients with mental illness may not be in a position to adhere to infection prevention and control measures and protect themselves in the face of Covid-19. Those who cannot access outpatient care may be left to self-manage their mental and physical health, as Benjamin Druss from Emory University argued recently.

Mental health system needs urgent strengthening

Existing social isolation, loneliness, homelessness, poorer physical health in patients with serious mental illness (e.g. schizophrenia, bipolar illness), overweight/obesity, lack of exercise and other unhealthy lifestyle factors associated with psychiatric illness, and the side effects of psychotropic medication, are added risks. As a result of the high rates of co-occurring physical illness (e.g. diabetes, cardiovascular disease) – at least two-fold higher than the general population – patients with mental illness have a heightened vulnerability to developing Covid-19 pneumonia and other complications. 

Our mental health system needs urgent strengthening through multi-sectoral interventions targeting mental health, well-being and resilience, for both the general population and for vulnerable groups. This includes, but is not limited to, health care workers, women, youth, the elderly, and the mentally ill. These interventions should be embedded in the general medical Covid-19 pandemic care that is already being provided. 

More than ever, given the scale of the pandemic, we need sound research to learn more about the psychiatric and neurological manifestations and their impact in our general population and in vulnerable groups. There are already several research studies currently underway at Stellenbosch University, and a number of these are collaborative multi-country initiatives (e.g., www.coh-fit.com). As this is a novel, ravaging virus, it may be prudent to over-estimate the mental health sequelae and the resources that will be required. We can harness the interconnectedness and the tremendous co-ordinated response from the health sector that Covid-19 has necessitated to achieve this. 

*Prof Soraya Seedat is the Executive Head of the Department of Psychiatry at Stellenbosch University.

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Health24.com | Latest on Covid-19 testing in SA: Public sector backlogs more than 6 days – an expert tells us more

While coronavirus testing increased week-on-week since early in April, a decrease in testing has been observed in the week ending 17 May, according to a report from the National Institute for Communicable Diseases (NICD).

The week-on-week increase, the NICD said, was on the back of “a larger network of testing laboratories and the implementation of targeted community symptom screening, and referral for testing”.

However, according to the NICD, for the week ending 17 May, a decrease in testing volumes has been observed – likely due to a limited number of testing kits, and laboratory testing backlogs. 

In the report, laboratory delays are indicated by an increase in the number of days between the day the test is done and the specimen collected, and the reporting of the result. Currently, the turnaround time for the public sector increased from two days to more than six days (in the weeks leading up to week 20 – the week ending 17 May), while the turnaround in the private sector remained less than two days. 

A reduction in testing volumes was also observed over weekends and public holidays, according to the report from the NICD.

The delay between tests and results was seen in the public sectors of all five provinces where the largest number of tests were done, but a significant delay was reported in Gauteng.

In Gauteng, where it previously took an average of 2.3 days from test to result, it is now more than eight days. 

Test kits not interchangeable

Professor Glenda Davison, head of the biomedical sciences department at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology, told Health24 that test kit availability would definitely be a reason for a decrease in testing.

“I would say the decrease in test kits is one reason for the decrease in testing,” she said.

“The test kits are acquired from a number of international companies and are most often imported which could result in delays. The reason being that countries throughout the world are doing these tests and the supply just can’t keep up with the demand.”

Another problem, she explained is that laboratories are often locked into using a specific company’s test kits as they are specifically designed for the instrument that they have purchased. 

“For example, the National Health laboratory service has a number of GeneXpert machines which should be able to produce test results quickly and within 24 hours. However, these machines can only use test kits/cartridges from the machine manufacturer (Cepheid).

“Cepheid also cannot seem to meet the demand, and although there are a number of other companies (e.g. Roche) who also manufacture test kits, these kits cannot be used on the GeneXpert as they are designed for the machine they are specifically made for.

“In other words, the test kits are not interchangeable.”

So why the reliance on kits from international companies?

Professor Davison says although the method to develop our own test kits is available, and we certainly have the capability, this is a long process, and once again they would not be suitable to use on the large commercial automated machines.

“And at this point, we need to be able to process tests on an automated platform”.

Understanding how a test is done

Professor Davison tells us that another reason could be in the process of viral RNA extraction.

To understand this, she briefly explains how the test is done.

“The method currently used to diagnose Covid-19 or detect the SARS-CoV-2 virus is a molecular test known as RT-PCR (reverse transcript real-time polymerase chain reaction). Once the nasal or throat swab arrives in the laboratory, the first thing that is required is to extract the viral RNA from the sample.

“This is a long process and is often done manually. It is here that delays often occur as the technologists or laboratory scientist must ensure that the quality and amount of RNA are adequate.

“Ideally, this process should be automated so that the RNA is extracted quickly and the backlog of unprocessed specimens can be cleared. After this has been done, the RNA can be converted to DNA using reverse transcriptase and then using the relevant instrument and test kit, is amplified and detected using PCR.”

So, she says a delay could take place at the point where the viral RNA is extracted from the throat or nasal swab, especially if this is a manual method.

Rectifying the situation

With the expectation that things will get worse, before getting better, regarding Covid-19 infections, Professor Davison has expressed concerns about the backlogs.

“This could have huge repercussions. One of the first things I think of is the contact tracing process. If someone is suspected of having Covid-19, one would like to know as soon as possible so that all the contacts can be traced and tested in order to prevent spreading.

“By delaying the tests it makes this process very difficult. It also makes the daily data which is released to the public less accurate and up to date. This makes it difficult to predict how the numbers are going to increase and what action should be taken.”

Epidemiologists need up-to-date data to detect hotspots so that they can be contained and controlled. 

Also, worryingly, she tells us that, from a technical point of view, RNA degrades fairly quickly, and so if samples are left too long it could result in a false-negative result. 

“So, it is important that we rectify this situation,” she says.

Image credit: Unsplash

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Health24.com | Human trial of a coronavirus vaccine shows safe and promising results

Over the last few months, we’ve been inundated with news about research and vaccine development as various expert teams are rushing towards finding a successful vaccine against the new coronavirus.

While waiting for a vaccine or any other effective treatment, many parts of the world are relying on so-called “new norms” of physical distancing and lockdown measures.

Meanwhile, the first coronavirus vaccine to reach phase 1 clinical trial has been found to be safe, well-tolerated and able to generate an immune response against SARS-Cov-2 in humans, according to a news release.

This research was published in The Lancet.

Who developed this vaccine?

This new Ad5-NCov vaccine, an adenovirus type-5 vaccine which expresses the spike glycoprotein of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, was developed by the Beijing Institute of Biotechnology and CanSino Biologics in Tianjin, China.

The developers cloned a spike gene based on the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Promising results

This trial was conducted among 108 healthy adults between the ages of 18 and 60 in an open-label way – this means that both the trial candidate and the research knew exactly what the candidate would be receiving. These adults showed promising results after 28 days, but the results need to be evaluated for a period of six months.

The researchers tested the blood of the candidates at regular intervals to see how the immune system was affected.

The vaccine was generally well-tolerated at all doses, with no serious adverse reactions reported.

The vaccine stimulated a rapid T-cell response in the majority of volunteers, which was greater in those given the higher and middle doses of vaccine, with levels peaking at 14 days after vaccination, according to the news release.

The researchers, however, did note that the antibody and T-cell response could be reduced by certain factors, such as pre-existing immunity to adenovirus type 5 (usually the vector or carrier of a common cold): “Our study found that pre-existing Ad5 immunity could slow down the rapid immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 and also lower the peaking level of the responses.

“Moreover, high pre-existing Ad5 immunity may also have a negative impact on the persistence of the vaccine-elicited immune responses,” stated Professor Feng-Cai Zhu from Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention in China who led the study.

Mild adverse reactions

According to the researchers, the most common adverse reactions were mild pain at the injection site, slight fatigue, headache and muscle pain. Only one participant who received the highest vaccine dose experienced severe fatigue, shortness of breath and muscle pain, but these symptoms cleared up in less than 48 hours.

Limitations and next steps

According to the news release, the phase 2 trial will be randomised, double-sided and placebo-controlled to see whether the results of phase 1 could be replicated. The next stage of the trial will include 500 healthy adults, of whom 125 will be given a placebo. This phase will now also include candidates older than 60, as this age group is a key target population.

The researchers did note that the phase 1 trial had limitations due to small sample size, short duration and lack of randomised control group to identify rarer side effects, but the initial response was promising.

Further research will be needed before the vaccine becomes available.

Image credit: iStock

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Coronavirus: Can we stay safe as lockdown eases?

As lockdowns ease, what are the risks of getting infected as people come into closer contact again?

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