Scientists say “significant” measures should stay for some time, with the UK lockdown set to continue.
Coronavirus: Significant social distancing needed ‘until vaccine found’
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Category Archives: Mind Building
Coronavirus: Nine in 10 dying have existing illness
Heart disease is the most common underlying condition, followed by dementia and respiratory illness.
Health24.com | Coronavirus morning update: A harsh truth, Trump vs the WHO, and an annual Covid-19 season?
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN SA
Cases update:
The latest number of confirmed cases is 2 506.
There have now been 34 deaths recorded in the country.
The most deaths have been in KwaZulu-Natal – 18, where there have also been the third most cases in the country – 519.
Latest news:
The day South Africa recorded its first positive Covid-19 case on 5 March was a day that altered our way of life drastically, and South Africans will not be able to return to their normal way of doing things, says the chief epidemiologist at the centre of the country’s Covid-19 fight.
Professor Salim Abdool Karim, an epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist working with the government in the fight against the coronavirus, has some sobering news: There will be no return to normal.
Covid-19 has drastically altered the way we live now, and it will continue to do so in the future as people become more aware of the everyday preventative measures they need to take.
“I am sorry to say that life is not going to be what it was like before. Our lives have changed since 5 March when we saw that first case. [Before] then, it was somebody else’s problem.
“Our lives, when we go back after this lockdown, are simply not going to be the same,” he said.
READ MORE | Covid-19 in SA: Life is not going to be what it once was, says Prof Karim
Karim also said this coming week will provide some answers on whether the nationwide lockdown has been effective in curbing the virus.
In an interview with News24’s Frontline on Wednesday, Karim explained that the state of disaster declared by President Cyril Ramaphosa before the lockdown had helped bring down the number of Covid-19 infections through initiatives like hand washing, social distancing, closing schools and limiting travel.
The next week will be critical to determine whether the lockdown has been effective.
Karim explained that, because of the nature of Covid-19, people may not display symptoms for almost two weeks and could be “none the wiser” about their infections.
This, coupled with the amount of time it takes to screen and test people, means that results reflect infections that had occurred two weeks earlier.
As South Africa enters its third week under lockdown, Karim said this coming week would show a true reflection of cases recorded from the start of the lockdown.
This will give a representation of whether these measures have had any impact on the rate of Covid-19 infections, Karim said.
READ MORE | Critical week ahead to measure impact of lockdown – Prof Karim
Seven people have died of the coronavirus in less than a week, Health Minister Zweli Mkhize said on Wednesday, bringing the number of fatalities across the country to 34.
This as 91 new infections were confirmed, taking the number of infections to 2 506 nationwide.
Mkhize said six of the seven fatalities were recorded in KwaZulu-Natal.
Two women, aged 73 and 79, died on Monday. The first suffered from diabetes and hypertension, while the other woman’s comorbidities were unknown.
On Sunday, a 91-year-old man died. He had suffered from diabetes.
Last Friday, a 71-year-old woman with diabetes, hypertension and renal failure died as well as a 79-year-old man with unknown conditions.
Last Thursday, an 86-year-old woman diagnosed with hypertension died.
One fatality was recorded in Gauteng on Monday when a 50-year-old asthmatic man died.
READ MORE | Covid-19 in SA: 7 people die in less than a week
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE REST OF THE WORLD
Cases update:
For the latest global data, follow this interactive map from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine.
Late on Wednesday night, positive cases worldwide were close to 2 045 000, while deaths are more than 133 000.
The United States had by far the most cases, with nearly 633 000, as well as the most deaths – nearly 28 000.
READ MORE | All the confirmed cases worldwide
Latest news:
The US decision to freeze funding to the World Health Organization over what President Donald Trump said was its “mismanaging” of the global coronavirus pandemic triggered anger and concern on Wednesday.
Trump announced on Tuesday that the United States would halt payments to the UN body that amounted to $400 million last year.
He said it would be frozen pending a review into the WHO’s role in “severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of the coronavirus,” said Trump, who accused the Geneva-based body of putting “political correctness above life-saving measures”.
Trump charged that the outbreak could have been contained “with very little death” if the WHO had accurately assessed the situation in China, where the disease broke out in December 2019.
Iceland has provided a textbook example of how to get out ahead of a looming pandemic: per capita, it has tested more people for coronavirus than any other country on earth and it got started a month before the first case was even confirmed in the tiny Nordic island nation.
In a study published on Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine, researchers from Icelandic universities and deCODE Genetics, a subsidiary of the US biotech giant Amgen, released the results of an all-out screening program launched on 31 January – before the disease caused by the virus had even been baptised Covid-19 and more than a month before the global pandemic was declared.
The study involved two testing drives. The first, starting 31 January, targeted people with symptoms of coronavirus infection and people who had travelled to high-risk areas – initially China and the Alps regions of Austria, Italy and Switzerland – or people who had come into contact with others who were in fact infected with the virus.
It found that as of late March, 13.3 percent of more than 9000 people who were screened tested positive. The first case of infection was confirmed on 28 February.
READ MORE | Study shows Iceland got it right with early, widespread virus testing
LATEST RESEARCH
Since South Africa’s current state of lockdown was extended by a further two weeks, as announced on Thursday, 9 April 2020, people have been wondering how far we are from getting a vaccine.
While there are daily reports of “promising” developments and discoveries, the hard truth is that before a vaccination can be made available it needs to be subjected to rigorous tests and trials, which can take months or even years.
For those who don’t have the time or inclination to browse through numerous studies and reports, here’s what is happening regarding a Covid-19 vaccine
So far, the World Health Organization (WHO) has announced that at least 70 possible candidates for vaccines – of which three are in clinical evaluation and 67 in preclinical evaluation,
Covid-19 is likely to be around for years to come, haunting humans as either a yearly flu-like illness or as a virus that occasionally resurfaces following years of dormancy, a new Harvard modelling study argues.
It’s unlikely that Covid-19 will go the way of its closest cousin, SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which was eradicated by an intense public health effort following a brief pandemic, the researchers said.
Instead, Covid-19 is expected to be an ongoing fact of life, with the duration of human immunity determining exactly how often the virus returns.
If immunity to the Covid-19 coronavirus is not permanent, the virus will likely enter into regular circulation – just like the influenza virus or the beta coronaviruses responsible for the common cold, the model showed.
READ MORE | Annual ‘Covid-19 season’ may be here to stay, scientists predict
President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to lock down the country was largely based on epidemiological projections. It was projected that if the SARS-CoV-2-19 virus was allowed to spread unchecked to the extent that 40% of people in the country became infected, more than 350 000 people could die.
The National Institute of Communicable Diseases (NICD) has confirmed that these numbers are already outdated and new models are coming up with new numbers, that are yet to be announced.
The results of Imperial College London modelling published in mid- March, indicated that more than 500 000 people may die from Covid-19 in the United Kingdom, and more than 2.2 million in the United States if no action was taken. This modelling prompted UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s announcement of new restrictions on people’s movements. Social distancing measures were also introduced in many parts of the United States.
Referring to the South African model, Alex Welte a research Professor at the Centre of Excellence for Epidemiological Modelling and Analysis at Stellenbosch University pointed out “nobody is expecting an infection rate of 40% at this point”. “If you put your hands in your lap and do nothing that may plausibly be the case,” he said. “If we look at Wuhan in China, by the time the epidemic has withered away to nothing, the attack rate (infection rate) has been less than 1%.”
READ MORE | Covid-19: What we think we know about the epidemiological numbers
In the midst of the current global pandemic, feelings of uncertainty continue to rise. There is not yet any proven treatment against the new coronavirus, officially named SARS-CoV-2, but trials are ongoing.
South African Epidemiologist and Infectious Diseases Specialist, Professor Salim Abdool Karim, told News24 that we are still in the early stages of understanding treatments for viruses.
“Unlike with [drug development for] bacteria… we don’t have the same historical track record of developing drugs against viruses. Against viruses, we’ve been successful only in the last three to four decades.
“Our ability to make drugs against viruses was not really well developed until HIV. But the problem is that these viruses are too different,” Karim explained.
READ MORE | SA expert cautions on coronavirus treatment
HEALTH TIPS (as recommended by the NICD and WHO)
• Maintain physical distancing – stay at least one metre away from somebody who is coughing or sneezing
• Practise frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill people or their environment
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth, as your hands touch many surfaces and could potentially transfer the virus
• Practise respiratory hygiene – cover your mouth with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Remember to dispose the tissue immediately after use.
READ MORE: Coronavirus 101
Image credit: Getty Images
Health24.com | These are the 3 coronavirus vaccines furthest along in development – already in clinical trials
The World Health Organization (WHO) recently published a blueprint document that listed 70 vaccine candidates that were leading the way towards a solution to the coronavirus pandemic.
While 67 of those vaccines are still in a pre-clinical phase, three of the vaccines are taking the lead and have now been moved on to clinical trials.
Who is leading the race?
The three developers are:
READ MORE: The new coronavirus: The urgent, but long race for a vaccine
What are the vaccinations?
1. An adenovirus type 5 vector vaccine
This vaccine by CanSino Biological Inc. and the Beijing Institute of Technology is currently in stage two of clinical evaluation. The vaccine is based on the same platform as the Ebola virus. Adenoviruses are often used as vectors for numerous infectious agents.
2. A DNA plasmid vaccine delivered by electroporation device
The vaccine developed by Inovio Pharmaceuticals is based on the same platform as Lassa, Nipah, Filovirus, HPV, Zika and Hepatitis B. A DNA plasmid vaccine is a vaccine where genetically engineered plasmid containing a DNA sequence that decodes the specific antigen against a virus is injected.
Electroporation is a method to deliver DNA to cells via an electric pulse. The vaccine is currently in stage one of clinical evaluation.
3. An LNP-encapsulated mRNA vaccine
This vaccine candidate by Moderna/NIAID and is designed to fight an RNA virus such as SARS-CoV-2. The mRNA sequence in the vaccine is coded to a disease specific antigen, which is recognised by the immune system, which then prepares to fight the virus.
LNP stands for “lipid nanoparticles” which encapsulates the RNA strand injected.
What exactly is a clinical trial?
When a medication or vaccine goes to clinical trial, it has been through the necessary laboratory and animal tests. Where it may normally take years, many companies are fast-tracking the processes to speed up the fight against Covid-19.
The clinical trial is the research trial performed in humans to ensure the safety and efficacy of the vaccine at hand. A clinical trial is used to establish any possible side-effect that a vaccine may cause. A clinical trial usually consists of four phases:
- Phase 1: An experimental phase with a small group of healthy people, usually between 20 and 80. This phase is usually focused around safety.
- Phase 2: Where Phase 1 solely focuses on safety, the trial moves on into Phase 2 as soon as safety is established in the small group of people. Now the vaccine is tested in a larger group of people, usually between 100 and 300, to test how effective it is.
- Phase 3: During this phase, the trial is extended to various groups and populations to determine both safety and efficacy in a diverse group of people.
- Phase 4: This trial takes place after the use of the vaccine is approved (by a regulatory body such as the FDA, for example). Here, the safety and efficacy are carefully monitored in a large, diverse group of people.
READ | Why will it take so long for a Covid-19 vaccine?
READ | US scientists take key step towards coronavirus vaccine
READ | The new coronavirus: The urgent, but long race for a vaccine
Image credit: iStock
Health24.com | Cheap, effective ventilator made from ambulance ‘resuscitation bags’
With a sudden need for more ventilators due to the coronavirus pandemic, researchers have been busy trying to come up with alternatives to a standard ventilator.
Engineers from Georgia Tech and Emory University in Atlanta think they may have developed such a device. They’ve created a simple, low-cost ventilator that builds on the widely used resuscitation bags found in ambulances and emergency departments everywhere.
“The Covid-19 infection has an alarmingly high rate of respiratory distress associated with it, especially in certain vulnerable populations. The need for critical care beds, which are beds with ventilators, is acute, and health systems are not scaled up for the number of patients that will need mechanical ventilation support in this country and globally,” explained Susan Margulies, chair of biomedical engineering at Georgia Tech and Emory University.
Margulies said her team thought “the fastest way to have an impact would be to look at devices already used to support ventilation”.
Can be used on two patients
The engineers focused on resuscitation bags, which are already used to manually push air into the lungs by squeezing the bag. The challenge was to transform it into a mechanical device, and to make it with as few parts as possible.
What they came up with is a device that uses two resuscitation bags, inexpensive metal, plastic gears and a simple power source. The device can be powered using a wall outlet, or a 12-volt vehicle battery.
Because it uses two bags, the emergency ventilator can be used on two patients. However, air flow for each person is completely separate.
The device can be shipped almost flat and then reassembled when needed. If necessary, device kits could be assembled using hand tools, the researchers explained.
The system is designed to be used on a temporary basis until a standard ventilator becomes available. But Margulies said that the system could be used for longer periods of time.
She said she doesn’t yet know what the cost would be, but thinks it would probably be hundreds of dollars, rather than the thousands that traditional ventilators cost.
Not a full-blown ventilator
Margulies said the amount and rate of air going into the lungs can be adjusted, and it can be varied from patient to patient.
So what’s missing from this inexpensive ventilator?
Dr John Osborne is director of cardiology at State of the Heart Cardiology in Dallas, and wasn’t part of the study team. He said this resuscitation bag device doesn’t have the electronics that monitor air pressure and sound alarms.
“This is not a full-blown ventilator. It doesn’t have monitors, pressure sensors and alarms. I think this could be used for short, emergent periods of time. I don’t think people would use this for weeks,” he said.
But, Osborne said, the lack of electronics and monitors is also what makes this solution interesting.
“I love the simplicity of it. They’re starting with a sound process we already use – the ‘ambu bag’ – which is a proven principle and then add some mechanics to it. And, certainly where the choice is this device and nothing, this is a great option,” he said.
Lifesaving in developing countries
And Osborne noted that this wasn’t the only device in development.
“This current crisis will cause us to think outside the box and come up with new solutions. We may end up with valuable options going forward,” he said.
Once the coronavirus pandemic has passed, Margulies said this device could also be lifesaving in developing countries without access to traditional ventilators. The research team is now looking for a manufacturing partner.
READ | Too many patients, too few ventilators: How US hospitals try to cope with coronavirus
READ | Could stroke drug help coroanvirus patients avoid ventilators?
READ | With 3D printer, NY hospital converts sleep apnoea machines into ventilators
Image credit: Pawel Czerwinski, Unsplash
Coronavirus: ‘Profound’ mental health impact prompts calls for urgent research
Concerns over increased anxiety and isolation are already affecting the public, two surveys suggest.
Coronavirus: Close family to be allowed to say goodbye to the dying
New guidelines to limit the infection risk will allow last goodbyes, the health secretary says.
Applying mathematics to accelerate predictions for capturing fusion energy
A key issue for scientists seeking to bring the fusion that powers the sun and stars to Earth is forecasting the performance of the volatile plasma that fuels fusion reactions. Making such predictions calls for considerable costly time on the world’s fastest supercomputers. Now researchers at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory (PPPL) have borrowed a technique from applied mathematics to accelerate the process.
The technique combines the millisecond behavior of fusion plasmas into longer-term forecasts. By using it, “we were able to demonstrate that accurate predictions of quantities such as plasma temperature profiles and heat fluxes could be achieved at a much reduced computational cost,” said Ben Sturdevant, an applied mathematician at PPPL and lead author of a Physics of Plasmas paper(link is external) that reported the results.
Fusion combines light elements in the form of plasma — the hot, charged state of matter composed of free electrons and atomic nuclei — that generates massive amounts of energy. Scientists are working around the world to create and control fusion on Earth for a virtually inexhaustible supply of safe and clean power to generate electricity.
Speeding simulations
Sturdevant applied the mathematical technique to the high-performance XGCa plasma code developed by a team led by physicist C.S. Chang at PPPL. The application greatly speeded up simulations of the evolving temperature profile of ions orbiting around magnetic field lines modeled with gyrokinetics — a widely used model that provides a detailed microscopic description of the behavior of plasma in strong magnetic fields. Also accelerated was modeling the collisions between orbiting particles that cause heat to leak from the plasma and reduce its performance.
The application was the first successful use of the technique, called “equation-free projective integration,” to model the evolution of the ion temperature as colliding particles escape from magnetic confinement. Equation free modeling aims to extract long-term macroscopic information from short-term microscopic simulations. The key was improving a critical aspect of the technique called a “lifting operator” to map the large-scale, or macroscopic, states of plasma behavior onto small-scale, or microscopic, ones.
The modification brought the detailed profile of the ion temperature into sharp relief. “Rather than directly simulating the evolution over a long time-scale, this method uses a number of millisecond simulations to make predictions over a longer time-scale,” Sturdevant said. “The improved process reduced the computing time by a factor of four.”
The results, based on tokamak simulations, are general and could be adapted for other magnetic fusion devices including stellarators and even for other scientific applications. “This is an important step in being able to confidently predict performance in fusion energy devices from first-principles-based physics,” Sturdevant said.
Expanding the technique
He next plans to consider the effect of expanding the technique to include the evolution of turbulence on the speed of the process. “Some of these initial results are promising and exciting,” Sturdevant said. “We’re very interested to see how it will work with the inclusion of turbulence.”
Coauthors of the paper include Chang, PPPL physicist Robert Hager and physicist Scott Parker of the University of Colorado. Chang and Parker were advisors, Sturdevant said, while Hager provided help with the XGCa code and the computational analysis.
Support for this work comes from the Exascale Computing Project, a collaborative effort of the DOE Office of Science and the National Nuclear Security Administration, and Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC). Computer simulations were performed at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), a DOE Office of Science User Facility.
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Materials provided by DOE/Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. Original written by John Greenwald. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Questionnaire survey identifies potential separation-related problems in cats
The first questionnaire survey to identify possible separation-related problems in cats found 13.5 percent of all sampled cats displayed potential issues during their owner’s absence, according to a study published April 15, 2020 in the open-access journal PLOS ONE by Daiana de Souza Machado, from the Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora, Brazil, and colleagues.
Though many studies have been conducted on owner separation problems in dogs, little work has been done to assess potential separation-related problems in cats. Despite the common belief that cats are happy being left alone for long periods of time, recent studies in cats and their owners suggest that pet cats are social and develop bonds with their owners.
In order to assess separation-related problems in cats, de Souza Machado and colleagues developed a questionnaire for use with cat owners. Based on surveys in similar studies with dogs, the questionnaire asked owners to provide basic information on each cat; describe whether their cat displayed certain behaviors when the owner was absent; and describe themselves and their cat interactions, as well as the cat’s living environment. The questionnaire was given to 130 owners of adult cats living in the city of Juiz de Fora in Minas Gerais, Brazil, for a total of 223 completed questionnaires (one per cat).
After assessing and categorizing responses for each category, the authors statistically analyzed their results. The data showed 13.5 percent of the sampled cats (30 out of 223) met at least one of the criteria for separation-related problems, with destructive behaviour most frequently-reported (present in 20 of the 30 cats). The other behaviors or mental states identified were: excessive vocalization (19 out of 30 cats), inappropriate urination (18 cats), depression-apathy (16 cats), aggressiveness (11 cats), agitation-anxiety (11 cats) and inappropriate defecation (7 cats). The data also showed these cats were associated with households with no female residents, households with owners aged 18 to 35 years, and/or households with at least two female residents, as well as with not having access to toys (P=0.04) and/or having no other animal in the house (P=0.04).
This questionnaire still requires further validation based on direct observation of cat behavior. It’s also limited by a reliance on owners being able to accurately interpret and report their cats’ actions in their absence (for instance, scratching on surfaces is normal in cats, though some owners may consider it destructive).
Although there’s more work to be done elucidating the relationship between humans and pet cats, this questionnaire can act as a starting point for future research, in addition to indicating certain environmental factors (like toys) that could help cats with separation issues.
The authors add: “This study provides information about behavioral signs consistent with separation-related problems (SRP) in a sampled population of domestic cats, as well as about the management practices used by their owners. The questionnaire identified that about 13% of cats may have signs consistent with SRP according to their owners’ reports, and therefore, it could be a promising tool for future research investigating SRP in cats.”
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Materials provided by PLOS. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Economists find carbon footprint grows with parenthood
Increased time constraints and the need for convenience in raising children appear to offset parents’ concerns about the future when it comes to their carbon footprints, according to new research by University of Wyoming economists and a colleague in Sweden.
UW’s Jason Shogren and Linda Thunstrom, along with Jonas Nordstrom of the Lund University School of Economics and Management, have documented that two-adult households with children emit over 25 percent more carbon dioxide than two-adult households without children. Their research appears April 15 in PLOS One, a journal published by the Public Library of Science.
“While having children makes people focus more on the future and, presumably, care more about the environment, our study suggests that parenthood does not cause people to become ‘greener,'” Shogren and Thunstrom say. “In fact, the difference in CO2 emissions between parents and non-parents is substantial, and that’s primarily because of increased transportation and food consumption changes.”
The study involved an analysis of expenditures on goods and services by households in Sweden. The researchers found that parents with children at home consume goods and services that emit CO2 in the areas of food, such as meat, and transportation, such as gasoline, at higher rates than childless households.
The economists note that time constraints become more binding, and convenience may become more important, when people have children.
“Parents may need to be in more places in one day,” resulting in people driving themselves instead of using public transportation or bicycling, the researchers wrote. “They also need to feed more people. Eating more pre-prepared, red meat carbon-intensive meals may add convenience and save time.”
The disparity in the carbon footprints of Swedish households with and without children is particularly striking, as concerns about climate change are more pronounced in Sweden than most other developed countries. Most Swedes believe climate change is real and have accepted sizable CO2 taxes, and households with children are subsidized, which helps to alleviate some of the time crunch for parents. Sweden has generous parental leave and subsidized day care, and parents have a legal right to reduced work hours.
“If we’re finding these results in Sweden, it’s pretty safe to assume that the disparity in carbon footprints between parents and nonparents is even bigger in most other Western countries,” Thunstrom says — though she notes that Sweden also has one of the world’s highest female labor participation rates, which may add to the time constraints of household with children.
“Becoming a parent can transform a person — he or she thinks more about the future and worries about future risks imposed on their children and progeny,” Shogren says. “But, while having children might be transformational, our results suggest that parents’ concerns about climate change do not cause them to be ‘greener’ than non-parent adults.”
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Materials provided by University of Wyoming. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
