The study, published in Nature, is the first to chart “indirect economic losses” from climate change on global supply chains that will affect regions that would have been less affected by projected warming temperatures.

These previously unquantified disruptions in supply chains will further exacerbate projected economic losses due to climate change, bringing a projected net economic loss of between $3.75 trillion and $24.7 trillion in adjusted 2020 dollars by 2060, depending on how much carbon dioxide gets emitted.

Senior author Professor Dabo Guan (UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction) said: “These projected economic impacts are staggering. These losses get worse the more the planet warms, and when you factor in the effects on global supply chains it shows how everywhere is at economic risk.”

As the global economy has grown more interconnected, disruptions in one part of the world have knock-on effects elsewhere in the world, sometimes in unexpected ways. Crop failures, labour slowdowns and other economic disruptions in one region can affect the supplies of raw materials flowing to other parts of the world that depend on them, disrupting manufacturing and trade in faraway regions. This is the first study to analyse and quantify the propagation of these disruptions from climate change, as well as their economic impacts.

As the Earth warms, the worse off economically it becomes, with compounding damage and economic losses climbing exponentially as time goes on and the hotter it gets. Climate change disrupts the global economy primarily by health costs from people suffering from heat exposure, work stoppages when it’s too hot to work, and economic disruptions cascading through supply chains.

The researchers compared expected economic losses across three projected global warming scenarios, called “Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,” based on low, medium and high projected global emissions levels. The best-case scenario would see global temperatures rise by only 1.5 degrees C over preindustrial levels by 2060, the middle track, which most experts believe Earth is on now, would see global temperatures rise by around 3 degrees C, and the worst-case scenario would see global temperatures rise by 7 degrees C.

By 2060, projected economic losses will be nearly five times as much under the highest emissions path than the lowest, with economic losses getting progressively worse the warmer it gets. By 2060, total GDP losses will amount to 0.8% under 1.5 degrees of warming, 2.0% under 3 degrees of warming and 3.9% under 7 degrees of warming.

The team calculated that supply chain disruptions also get progressively worse the warmer the climate gets, accounting for a greater and greater proportion of economic losses. By 2060, supply chain losses will amount to 0.1% of total global GDP (13% of the total GDP lost) under 1.5 degrees of warming, 0.5% of total GDP (25% of the total GDP lost) under 3 degrees, and 1.5% of total GDP (38% of the total GDP lost) under 7 degrees.

Co-lead author, Dr Daoping Wang of King’s College London, said: “The negative impacts of extreme heat sometimes occur quietly on global supply chains, even escaping our notice altogether. Our developed Disaster Footprint model tracks and visually represents these impacts, underlining the imperative for global collaborative efforts in adapting to extreme heat.”

For example, although extreme heat events occur more often in low-latitude countries, high-latitude regions, such as Europe or the United States, are also at significant risk. Future extreme heat is likely to cost Europe and the US about 2.2% and about 3.5% of their GDP respectively under the high emission scenario. The UK would lose about 1.5% of its GDP, with chemical products, tourism and electrical equipment industries suffering the greatest losses. Some of these losses originate from supply chain fluctuations caused by extreme heat in countries close to the equator.

The direct human cost is likewise significant. Even under the lowest path, 2060 will see 24% more days of extreme heatwaves and an additional 590,000 heatwave deaths annually, while under the highest path there would be more than twice as many heatwaves and an expected 1.12 million additional annual heatwave deaths. These impacts will not be evenly distributed around the world, but countries situated near to the equator will bear the brunt of climate change, particularly developing countries.

Co-lead author, Yida Sun from Tsinghua University said: “Developing countries suffer disproportionate economic losses compared to their carbon emissions. As multiple nodes in developing countries are hit simultaneously, economic damage can spread rapidly through the global value chain.”

The researchers highlighted two illustrative examples of industries that are part of supply chains at risk from climate change: Indian food production and tourism in the Dominican Republic.

The Indian food industry is heavily reliant on imports of fats and oils from Indonesia and Malaysia, Brazilian sugar, as well as vegetables, fruits and nuts from Southeast Asia and Africa. These supplier countries are among those most affected by climate change, diminishing India’s access to raw materials, which will diminish its food exports. As a result, the economies of countries reliant on these foods will feel the pinch of diminished supply and higher prices.

The Dominican Republic is expected to see a decline in its tourism as its climate grows too warm to attract vacationers. A nation whose economy is heavily reliant on tourism, this slowdown will hurt tourism-reliant industries including manufacturing, construction, insurance, financial services, and electronic equipment.

Professor Guan said: “This research is an important reminder that preventing every additional degree of climate change is critical. Understanding what nations and industries are most vulnerable is crucial for devising effective and targeted adaption strategies.”

The three journals that published the initiative papers are School-University Partnerships, Journal of Practitioner Research and Journal of Teacher Education. JTE, as it’s known, is widely considered the top-ranked research journal in the field of teacher education. Some of the scholars who independently reviewed the papers described the initiative’s research-based, nonpartisan approach, which combines practitioner inquiry with trauma-informed and asset-based practices, as novel, innovative and widely needed.

“We spend a great deal of energy and time conducting rigorous research into our work for several reasons,” said Boaz Dvir, the initiative’s director and an associate professor in the Donald P. Bellisario College of Communications. “These include improving our programs, strengthening our approach, collaborating with partners and participants, and sharing our findings with the world so others can challenge and/or adopt our approach.”

The initiative partners with educational entities such as school districts to offer customized professional learning opportunities to K-12 educators in Pennsylvania and around the country. Program participants identify difficult issues in their curriculum or setting, come up with compelling questions about these issues, seek credible sources, collect and analyze data, investigate their findings with colleagues and initiative facilitators, and design and implement classroom- or school-application plans.

The initiative offers year- and semester-long programs, workshops and asynchronous, self-paced online modules.

To examine the initiative’s yearlong program, the researchers interviewed participating teachers, generated field notes, collected program artifacts, reviewed teachers’ lesson plans and conducted classroom observations.

The core research team included Dvir; initiative affiliate faculty member Logan Rutten, a University of North Dakota assistant professor; and Danielle Butville, the initiative’s assistant director. The team collaborated with educators from Pennsylvania’s Red Lion Area School District — Wendy Smith, a veteran fifth-grade teacher, and Eric Wilson, who at the time served as the district’s chief instructional officer — to co-author two of the publications.

All three journals provide open access, so readers can download the papers for free. As much as possible, the initiative aims to publish its research in such accessible spaces.

“These papers carve a distinctive niche in the research on teachers’ professional learning,” Rutten said. “At a time when many teachers are seeking support to address the difficult topics they face in their curriculum and school communities, our research clearly illustrates how inquiry-based approaches can offer a hopeful path forward.”

The initiative team continues to examine various key aspects of its work.

“In our ongoing and future research, we are studying the impact of our programs on collective K-12 teachers’ efficacy and students’ learning experiences, as well as our learning as facilitators and teacher educators,” Butville said.

Based in Penn State’s Bellisario College, the Hammel Family Human Rights Initiative and the Holocaust, Genocide and Human Rights Education Initiative offer intensive professional learning programs throughout Pennsylvania and around the country to support educators in their instruction of a variety of difficult issues.

Provisionally designated “Noctis volcano” pending an official name, the structure is centered at 7° 35′ S, 93° 55′ W. It reaches +9022 meters (29,600 feet) in elevation and spans 450 kilometers (280 miles) in width. The volcano’s gigantic size and complex modification history indicate that it has been active for a very long time. In its southeastern part lies a thin, recent volcanic deposit beneath which glacier ice is likely still present. This combined giant volcano and possible glacier ice discovery is significant, as it points to an exciting new location to study Mars’ geologic evolution through time, search for life, and explore with robots and humans in the future.

“We were examining the geology of an area where we had found the remains of a glacier last year when we realized we were inside a huge and deeply eroded volcano,” said Dr. Pascal Lee, planetary scientist with the SETI Institute and the Mars Institute based at NASA Ames Research Center, and the lead author of the study.

Several clues, taken together, give away the volcanic nature of the jumble of layered mesas and canyons in this eastern part of Noctis Labyrinthus. The central summit area is marked by several elevated mesas forming an arc, reaching a regional high and sloping downhill away from the summit area. The gentle outer slopes extend out to 225 kilometers (140 miles) away in different directions. A caldera remnant — the remains of a collapsed volcanic crater once host to a lava lake — can be seen near the center of the structure. Lava flows, pyroclastic deposits (made of volcanic particulate materials such as ash, cinders, pumice and tephra) and hydrated mineral deposits occur in several areas within the structure’s perimeter.

“This area of Mars is known to have a wide variety of hydrated minerals spanning a long stretch of Martian history. A volcanic setting for these minerals had long been suspected. So, it may not be too surprising to find a volcano here,” explained Sourabh Shubham, a graduate student at the University of Maryland’s Department of Geology and the study’s co-author. “In some sense, this large volcano is a long-sought ‘smoking gun’.”

In addition to the volcano, the study reports the discovery of a large, 5000 square kilometer (1930 square mile) area of volcanic deposits within the volcano’s perimeter presenting a large number of low, rounded and elongated, blister-like mounds. This “blistered terrain” is interpreted to be a field of “rootless cones,” mounds produced by explosive steam venting or steam swelling when a thin blanket of hot volcanic materials comes to rest on top of a water or ice-rich surface.

Just a year ago, Lee, Shubham and their colleague John W. Schutt had identified the spectacular remains of a glacier — or “relict glacier” — through a sizeable erosional opening in the same volcanic blanket, in the form of a light-toned deposit (LTD) of sulfate salt with the morphologic traits of a glacier. The sulfate deposit, made mainly of jarosite, a hydrous sulfate, was interpreted to have formed when the blanket of volcanic pyroclastic materials came to rest on a glacier and reacted chemically with the ice. Breached rootless cones identified in the current study show similar occurrences of polyhydrated sulfates, further suggesting the blistered volcanic blanket may be hiding a vast sheet of glacier ice underneath it.

The Noctis volcano presents a long and complex history of modification, possibly from a combination of fracturing, thermal erosion, and glacial erosion. Researchers interpret the volcano to be a vast shield made of layered accumulations of pyroclastic materials, lavas, and ice, the latter resulting from repeated buildups of snow and glaciers on its flanks through time. As fractures and faults eventually developed, in particular in connection with the uplift of the broader Tharsis region on which the volcano sits, lavas began to rise through different parts of the volcano, leading to thermal erosion and removal of vast amounts of buried ice and the catastrophic collapse of entire sections of the volcano.

Subsequent glaciations continued their erosion, giving many canyons within the structure their present distinctive shape. In this context the “relict glacier” and the possible buried sheet of glacier ice around it, might be remnants of the latest glaciation episode affecting the Noctis volcano.

But much about the newly discovered giant volcano remains a mystery. Although it is clear that it has been active for a long time and began to build up early in Mars’ history, it is unknown how early exactly. Similarly, although it has experienced eruptions even in modern times, it is unknown if it is still volcanically active and might erupt again. And if it has been active for a very long time, could the combination of sustained warmth and water from ice have allowed the site to harbor life?

As mysteries surrounding the Noctis volcano continue to puzzle scientists, the site is already emerging as an exciting new location to study Mars’ geologic evolution, search for life, and plan future robotic and human exploration. The possible presence of glacier ice at shallow depths near the equator means that humans could potentially explore a less frigid part of the planet while still being able to extract water for hydration and manufacturing rocket fuel (by breaking down H2O into hydrogen and oxygen).

“It’s really a combination of things that makes the Noctis volcano site exceptionally exciting. It’s an ancient and long-lived volcano so deeply eroded that you could hike, drive, or fly through it to examine, sample, and date different parts of its interior to study Mars’ evolution through time. It has also had a long history of heat interacting with water and ice, which makes it a prime location for astrobiology and our search for signs of life. Finally, with glacier ice likely still preserved near the surface in a relatively warm equatorial region on Mars, the place is looking very attractive for robotic and human exploration,” said Lee.

This study was conducted using data from NASA’s Mariner 9, Viking Orbiter 1 and 2, Mars Global Surveyor, Mars Odyssey, and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter missions, as well as ESA’s Mars Express mission. Special appreciation is expressed to their instrument teams for acquiring the various datasets used in this study. Use of the open NASA Planetary Data System, Mars Quickmap, Mars Trek, and Google Mars online data visualization tools was also key in enabling the study.