Russian Defence Spending To Surge As Kremlin Prepares For ‘Multiple Years’ Of War In Ukraine

Russia is set to dramatically increase the amount of money it spends on defence as the country prepares for “multiple years” of war in Ukraine, according UK intelligence.

The Ministry of Defence’s latest intelligence update on the war said documents apparently leaked from the Russian finance ministry shows its military spending will reach 30% of all public expenditure in 2024.

“The ministry proposes a defence budget of 10.8 trillion roubles (£91.7 billion), equivalent to approximately 6 per cent of GDP and a 68 per cent increase over 2023,” the MoD said.

To put that in context, the UK spends around 2% of its GDP on defence. In 2021/22, that worked out at around £45bn.

The MoD said Russia’s military spending splurge will come “at the expense of the wider economy”.

“Full details on Russian defence spending are always classified, but these figures suggests that Russia is preparing for multiple further years of fighting in Ukraine,” they said.

“This follows public comments by Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on 27 September 2023, suggesting he was prepared for the conflict to continue into 2025.”

Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 in a “special military operation” that Vladimir Putin believed would be over in days.

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Ukraine Says It Killed A Russian Admiral, But Russian Media Says He’s Alive. Experts Don’t Know What To Believe

Russian media just put out more supposed evidence that an admiral Ukraine claims to have killed is actually alive – but experts still don’t know what to believe.

On Monday, Ukraine alleged that Viktor Sokolov, the commander of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, died along with 33 other officers following a missile strike on Moscow’s naval headquarters in Crimea last Friday.

If true, it would deal a significant blow to the Russian Navy, on par only with Ukraine’s successful sinking of the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet last year.

But, on Tuesday, Russia’s defence ministry released a video on Telegram – supposedly filmed the day before – which apparently showed the admiral remotely attending a large military conference with the defence minister.

While the BBC used facial recognition software to confirm the man in the clip was indeed Sokolov, the broadcasters were not able to pinpoint when it was filmed.

The clip prompted Ukraine’s military to clarify their statement, saying: “According to available sources, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet is among the dead. Many have not yet been identified due to the fragmentation of body parts.”

However, it’s also not clear how Kyiv would be able to look at the area it struck because it took place in Russian occupied land.

The following day, the Russian state media started to issue more unverified videos of the admiral – and this time, he could be heard speaking to journalists.

An undated clip posted on the Russian state-run TV network, Zvezda, seemed to show Sokolov saying the Black Sea Fleet has been “fulfilling goals that are set by command”.

Another video posted by a local news outlet showed Sokolov responding to a question about the impacts about a Ukrainian strike, saying: “What happened to us? Nothing happened to us. Life goes on.”

This turn of events – the latest in the ongoing information war between the two countries – have left experts quite bewildered.

The US think tank, the Institute for the Study of War, said in its daily update that it is “unprepared at this time to make an assessment about the authenticity of the footage or the date of the filming”.

It added: “The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defence have been notably silent on the matter and have not directly confirmed that Sokolov is alive.”

Russia also has a reputation for obscuring narratives which might cause embarrassment for the Kremlin.

While Sokolov’s fate is still unknown, clips on social media suggest the attack last Friday did take place in one form or another.

Russia also claimed at the time that it had shot down five incoming missiles and only one serviceman had died in the incident, though it admitted its headquarters were damaged.

Russia’s foreign ministry spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, said at a briefing that the West were to blame for the strike.

She said: “There is no doubt that the attack had been planned in advance using Western intelligence means, NATO satellite assets and reconnaissance planes and was implemented upon the advice of American and British security agencies and in close co-ordination with them.”

The Black Sea has become the new focal point of the war, with Kyiv attacking Russian warships to stop any advances towards the Ukrainian mainland, deter cruise missiles and disrupt Moscow’s blockade on Ukraine’s ports.

Ukraine is also determined to liberate Crimea, which was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014.

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Justin Trudeau Responds After Canadian Parliament Accidentally Honoured Ex-Nazi

Justin Trudeau has spoken up after the Canadian parliament gave a Ukrainian man who fought for the Nazis in World War 2 a standing ovation.

Yaroslav Hunka was declared a hero by the Canadian House of Commons speaker, Anthony Rota, on Friday, while the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was visiting.

Rota pointed to Hunka when he was sitting in the gallery, calling him a “Ukrainian hero, a Canadian hero”, adding: “We thank him for all his service.”

However, the 98-year-old veteran’s connections to the Nazis have since been uncovered.

He actually served in a voluntary unit primarily made up of ethnic Ukrainians under Nazi command. The unit has been accused of killing Polish and Jewish civilians, but has not been found guilty of war crimes.

It was renamed the First Ukrainian Division before its surrender in 1945.

The speaker of the House, who had invited Hunka, said in a statement on Sunday that he only became aware of such information after the veteran’s visit, and now “regrets” his decision.

“No one, including fellow parliamentarians and the Ukraine delegation, was aware of my intention or of my remarks before I delivered them,” Rota said.

He added: “This initiative was entirely my own, the individual in question being from my [district] and having been brought to my attention.”

He extended his “deepest apologies” to the Jewish communities around the world, and accepted full responsibility for the incident.

He apologised again in person on Monday from the house.

Opposition politicians have called on him to stand down.

But, Trudeau has not echoed these calls, even though they belong to the same Liberal party.

He told reporters on Monday that it was “extremely upsetting that this happened”, while denying he had a private meeting with Hunka or had a hand in choosing to invite the veteran.

He added: “This is something that is deeply embarrassing to the parliament of Canada and by extension to all Canadians.”

Ukrainians fought both for Germany and the Soviet Red Army during World War 2.

Some of those who joined the Nazis reportedly aimed to achieve independence from the Soviet Union.

The Canadian Jewish group, the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs said it appreciated the apology, but called for ”proper vetting” to prevent “such an unacceptable incident” happening again.

Poland’s ambassador to Canada has expressed anger too, saying he wants an apology.

This is an especially unfortunate turn of events because the Russian president Vladimir Putin has repeatedly claimed Kyiv is operated by neo-Nazis – and claiming his invasion of Ukraine will be a “de-nazification”.

These claims are baseless – Zelenskyy is Jewish, and had relatives who died in the Holocaust. He was also democratically elected in 2019.

Trudeau noted on Monday that the incident in the Canadian parliament would help reinforce that rhetoric.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has already waded into the saga, claiming inviting Hunka was an “outrageous” act.

He said: “Many Western countries, including Canada, have raised a young generation that does not know who fought whom or what happened during the Second World War.

“And they know nothing about the threat of fascism.”

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Russia Likely Concerned Over Explosions At ‘Sensitive’ Air Base Near Moscow, UK Says

Attacks on a “sensitive” air base near Moscow are “likely to be of most strategic concern” for Russian leaders, according to UK intelligence.

The ministry of defence (MoD) explained in its daily update that “both Russia and Ukraine have experienced unusually intense attacks deep behind their lines” over the last four days.

Moscow launched a wave of missile attacks across Ukraine earlier this week, targeting six cities including the capital of Kyiv.

It came just as the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was denouncing Russia in a speech to the UN’s General Assembly, on International Day of Peace.

While much of the war has taken place on Ukrainian soil, attacks in Russia have become increasingly common in recent months as Kyiv hits back – and this week was especially eventful, according to the MoD.

In a post shared on X, formerly Twitter, the UK intelligence officers claimed: “There have been reports of explosions at Russian logistics sites, air bases and command posts in Crimea, the Krasnodar region and near Moscow.”

Crimea is the Ukrainian peninsula which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 but which Kyiv is determined to retrieve.

The Krasnodar region is to the south of the Ukraine-Russia border, while Moscow, the capital, is much further north and deeper within Russia.

The MoD continued: “It is highly likely that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has again been heavily targeted.

“However, the explosions at Chkalovsky Air Base, near Moscow, are likely to be of most strategic concern to Russian leaders.”

The UK intelligence officers claimed that this is a “sensitive location” because it’s where Russia stores its military aircrafts and VIP transport for Russian leaders.

The MoD noted that Moscow responded quickly: “Russia has launched long-range strikes at targets across Ukraine repeatedly over the last week.

“This unusual intensity is likely partially in response to the incidents in Russia and Crimea.

“With the ground battle relatively static, each side is seeking advantage by striking through their adversary’s strategic depth.”

Ukraine’s highly-anticipated counteroffensive has made slow progress in recent months, despite claims that it has broken through the Russian defensive lines in some places.

Ukraine has also faced pushback from Poland over its grain exports this week, with Warsaw announcing it plans to stop sending weapons to its beleaguered neighbour.

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‘He’s Wrong’: James Cleverly Condemns Boris Johnson Over Ukraine

The former prime minister launched an outspoken attack on western governments’ response to the ongoing Russian invasion in an article in The Spectator last week.

Johnson said: “I have asked it before, and I ask it again: what the hell are we waiting for?”

Shown Johnson’s comments by Trevor Phillips on his Sky News show this morning, Cleverly said: “He cannot be talking about the United Kingdom.

“Under his tenure, and I always pay tribute to his leadership on this, we supplied those NLAW anti-tank missile systems that were so instrumental in the defence of Kyiv, we supplied training.

“Under Rishi Sunak as prime minister we were the first in the world to commit main battle tanks, other countries in the world then followed our example.

“We were the first to commit to the training of fast jet pilots, then other countries followed our example.

“We were the first to commit to those long-range missiles that have been instrumental in helping the Ukrainians in their battle in the south and south-east of Ukraine. So we have led the world on all these issues.”

James Cleverly was showed Johnson's comments on Sky News
James Cleverly was showed Johnson’s comments on Sky News

But Phillips replied: “Surely [Boris Johnson] should know about the issue of pace? He was the fastest of western leaders to respond. And he now says that the momentum that he set is essentially being run into the ground by you guys. You’ve got to take this seriously.”

Cleverly said: “Of course I take his comments seriously, but I’ve just given you evidence of the fact that he is wrong on this issue.

“I speak to the Ukrainians very regularly on this. They remain incredibly grateful, not just for our donations but our leadership on this issue.”

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Russian Troops Being ‘Rushed Into Action’ To Help ‘Over-Stretched’ Forces, UK Says

Russian troops are being “rushed into action” because the country’s military is being “over-stretched” by the Ukrainian counter-offensive, UK officials have said.

Members of Moscow’s 25th Combined Arms Army, known as the 25 CAA, were not due to see combat until December.

But the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said today that they are “highly likely” to have been deployed in Ukraine already.

“It is likely that units have been rushed into action early partly because Russia continues to grapple with an over-stretched force along the front and Ukraine continues its counter-offensive on three different axes,” the MoD’s latest intelligence update said.

They said Russian military chiefs could also use the 25CAA “to regenerate an uncommitted reserve force in the theatre to provide commanders with more operational flexibility”.

The pair greeted each other with a bizarre 40-second handshake at the Vostochny Cosmodrome space base.

It comes amid suggestions Putin wants North Korea to supply him with weapons for the war in Ukraine.

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The War In Ukraine Is Causing Shortages In Russia’s Workforce, UK Says

Russia is experiencing shortages in its workforce as a result of the Ukraine war, according to the UK.

However, the MoD said Moscow’s conscription efforts “continue to have negative effects on its industry workforce”.

As an example, the country’s IT sector saw around 100,000 of its workers leave Russia in 2022 – 10% of the total.

That led to Putin increasing the age at which IT workers can be recruited to the army from 27 to 30.

“This shows that mobilisation and conscription within Russia has worsened non-defence workforce shortages,” the MoD said in its latest intelligence update on the war.

“In the run-up to the Russian presidential elections scheduled for March 2024, Russian authorities will likely seek to avoid further unpopular mobilisations.”

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Russia Forced To Use Volunteers To Guard Against Drone Attacks

Russia is having to recruit volunteers to prevent drone attacks on a military air base, it has emerged.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said the Kremlin has been forced into the move by a “shortage of trained personnel within Russia”.

According to the MoD’s latest intelligence update, the governor in Russia’s Pskov Oblast, close to the Estonian border, has organised “volunteer security patrols” to intercept so-called “uncrewed aerial vehicle” attacks on Kresty air base.

Around 800 civilians have reportedly signed up to join the patrols.

“The creation of these volunteer security patrols will likely act as a deterrence and provide a level of defence against quadcopter UAVs being operated from the immediate vicinity of the air base,” the MoD said.

They added: “The use of volunteers highly likely indicates a shortage of trained security personnel within Russia.”

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Russia Trying To Recruit Troops From Neighbouring Countries As Casualties Mount, says UK

Russia is trying to recruit troops from neighbouring countries in an attempt to replace those injured or killed on the front line in Ukraine, according to UK officials.

Online adverts offering thousands of pounds to those who sign up to fight have been published in Armenia and Kazakhstan.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said there had also been “recruitment efforts” among the ethnic Russian population in Kazakhstan’s northern Qostanai region.

That is in addition to attempts to persuade central Asian migrants to fight for Russia in Ukraine by offering them fast-track citizenship and salaries of up to £3,300.

“There are at least six million migrants from central Asia in Russia, which the Kremlin likely sees as potential recruits,” the MoD said in its latest update posted on X, formerly Twitter.

“Russia likely wishes to avoid further unpopular domestic mobilisation measures in the run up to the 2024 Presidential elections.

“Exploiting foreign nationals allows the Kremlin to acquire additional personnel for its war effort in the face of mounting casualties.”

It emerged last week that thousands of Russian troops are being prosecuted for refusing to return to fight in Ukraine amid plummeting morale.

Nearly 100 Russian soldiers a week after being convicted for refusing to go into battle as the war drags on.

“If this trend continues, there will be approximately 5,200 convictions a year for refusing to fight,” the MoD said.

Russia is also failing to hit its army recruitment targets despite a massive rise in forces’ pay.

The country is estimated to have suffered more than 200,000 casualties so far in the Ukraine war.

The MoD revealed last month that up to half of Russian fatalities in the war could also have been prevented “with proper first aid”, while crude battlefield medical treatment is causing a huge number of preventable fatalities and amputations.

Meanwhile, at least half of the elite 30,000 Russian paratroopers deployed to Ukraine have probably been killed or wounded.

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Thousands Of Russian Soldiers Refusing To Fight In Ukraine As Morale Plummets, Says UK

Thousands of Russian troops are refusing to return to the frontline in Ukraine as their morale plummets, according to the UK.

Two soldiers were last week sentenced to serve at least two years in a penal colony after being convicted of disobeying orders to fight.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it was reported last month that nearly 100 Russian soldiers a week after being convicted for refusing to go into battle as the war drags on.

“If this trend continues, there will be approximately 5,200 convictions a year for refusing to fight,” the MoD’s latest intelligence update said.

“The high rate of convictions demonstrates the poor state of morale in the Russian Army and the reluctance of some elements to fight.”

The MoD said that was a result of a “lack of training, motivation and high stress situations” faced by Russian forces in the war.

They added: “Although some soldiers have refused to fight and attrition rates remain high, Russia highly likely mitigates their loss by committing a mass of poorly trained soldiers to the frontline.”

It emerged yesterday that Russia is failing to hit its army recruitment targets despite a massive rise in forces’ pay.

Russia is estimated to have suffered more than 200,000 casualties so far in the Ukraine war.

The MoD revealed last month that up to half of Russian fatalities in the war could also have been prevented “with proper first aid”, while crude battlefield medical treatment is causing a huge number of preventable fatalities and amputations.

Meanwhile, at least half of the elite 30,000 Russian paratroopers deployed to Ukraine have probably been killed or wounded.

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