The Ministry of Defence has revealed why Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to hand over large swathes of its unoccupied land to end the war.

In its latest intelligence update on the conflict, the MoD said Russia would be forced to fight for more than four years and suffer nearly two million casualties if it had to fight for it.

The analysis came as Putin set out his peace plans at a summit with Donald Trump in Alaska.

According to the Reuters news agency, the proposed deal would see Ukraine fully withdraw from the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions in return for a Russian pledge to freeze the front lines in the southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.

But the MoD said: “Based on the rate of Russia’s incremental battlefield advances so far in 2025, it would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100% of the four Ukrainian oblasts’ territory.

“Based on Russia’s average daily casualty rate in 2025 so far, as reported by Ukrainian general staff, 4.4 more years of war would lead to approximately 1,930,000 further Russian casualties (killed and wounded).

“This is in addition to the approximately 1,060,000 casualties Russia has already likely sustained since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, including around 250,000 killed or missing (presumed dead).”

After his talks with Putin, Trump told Sean Hannity on Fox News: “I think we’re pretty close to a deal. Ukraine has to agree to it. Maybe they’ll say ‘no’.”

But speaking following talks with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen in Brussels today, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “The constitution of Ukraine makes it impossible to give up territory or trade land. ”

He said any such moves would need to be discussed at a three-way summit involving him, Putin and Trump.

Von der Leyen, also insisted that “international borders cannot be changed by force”.

Vladimir Putin has reportedly lost 16 Russian generals in battle since declaring war on Ukraine, according to the UK.

The British Ministry of Defence (MoD) claimed this loss has subsequently undermined command and control in some parts of the army.

The MoD also noted in its latest update on X that two senior generals have died so far in 2025 and five in the last 12 months alone.

The MoD said: “The loss of so many high-ranking officers is likely to have had the effect of undermining command and control in parts of the Russian Armed Forces.

“This has likely contributed to Russian tactical and operational difficulties during the conflict.”

The MoD confirmed that Major General Mikhail Gudkov was the latest to be killed in battle after a Ukrainian strike on a Russian command post.

He died on July 2 in the Kursk oblast in western Russia, the region Ukrainian troops seized in a surprise incursion last August.

Russia has claimed to have retaken the area completely since April, while Ukraine has maintained that the fighting is ongoing.

The MoD said: “It is likely Gudkov was directing marine infantry units attempts to establish a buffer zone in the Ukrainian oblast of Sumy.

“Russia’s advances in Sumy have slowed due to Ukrainian counterattacks and significant Russian losses.”

The MoD has previously claimed Russia has now surpassed a million military losses since Putin first invaded Ukraine back in February 2022.

Despite the staggering attrition rate and Donald Trump’s efforts to secure a peace deal, the Russian president has refused to compromise on any long-term ceasefire deals with Ukraine.

Only last month, he confirmed that he still wants to annex all of Ukraine.

“I have said many times that the Russian and Ukrainian people are one nation, in fact. In this sense, all of Ukraine is ours,” Putin said.

Attacks on a “sensitive” air base near Moscow are “likely to be of most strategic concern” for Russian leaders, according to UK intelligence.

The ministry of defence (MoD) explained in its daily update that “both Russia and Ukraine have experienced unusually intense attacks deep behind their lines” over the last four days.

Moscow launched a wave of missile attacks across Ukraine earlier this week, targeting six cities including the capital of Kyiv.

It came just as the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy was denouncing Russia in a speech to the UN’s General Assembly, on International Day of Peace.

While much of the war has taken place on Ukrainian soil, attacks in Russia have become increasingly common in recent months as Kyiv hits back – and this week was especially eventful, according to the MoD.

In a post shared on X, formerly Twitter, the UK intelligence officers claimed: “There have been reports of explosions at Russian logistics sites, air bases and command posts in Crimea, the Krasnodar region and near Moscow.”

Crimea is the Ukrainian peninsula which Russia illegally annexed in 2014 but which Kyiv is determined to retrieve.

The Krasnodar region is to the south of the Ukraine-Russia border, while Moscow, the capital, is much further north and deeper within Russia.

The MoD continued: “It is highly likely that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has again been heavily targeted.

“However, the explosions at Chkalovsky Air Base, near Moscow, are likely to be of most strategic concern to Russian leaders.”

The UK intelligence officers claimed that this is a “sensitive location” because it’s where Russia stores its military aircrafts and VIP transport for Russian leaders.

The MoD noted that Moscow responded quickly: “Russia has launched long-range strikes at targets across Ukraine repeatedly over the last week.

“This unusual intensity is likely partially in response to the incidents in Russia and Crimea.

“With the ground battle relatively static, each side is seeking advantage by striking through their adversary’s strategic depth.”

Ukraine’s highly-anticipated counteroffensive has made slow progress in recent months, despite claims that it has broken through the Russian defensive lines in some places.

Ukraine has also faced pushback from Poland over its grain exports this week, with Warsaw announcing it plans to stop sending weapons to its beleaguered neighbour.

Thousands of Russian troops are refusing to return to the frontline in Ukraine as their morale plummets, according to the UK.

Two soldiers were last week sentenced to serve at least two years in a penal colony after being convicted of disobeying orders to fight.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD) said it was reported last month that nearly 100 Russian soldiers a week after being convicted for refusing to go into battle as the war drags on.

“If this trend continues, there will be approximately 5,200 convictions a year for refusing to fight,” the MoD’s latest intelligence update said.

“The high rate of convictions demonstrates the poor state of morale in the Russian Army and the reluctance of some elements to fight.”

The MoD said that was a result of a “lack of training, motivation and high stress situations” faced by Russian forces in the war.

They added: “Although some soldiers have refused to fight and attrition rates remain high, Russia highly likely mitigates their loss by committing a mass of poorly trained soldiers to the frontline.”

It emerged yesterday that Russia is failing to hit its army recruitment targets despite a massive rise in forces’ pay.

Russia is estimated to have suffered more than 200,000 casualties so far in the Ukraine war.

The MoD revealed last month that up to half of Russian fatalities in the war could also have been prevented “with proper first aid”, while crude battlefield medical treatment is causing a huge number of preventable fatalities and amputations.

Meanwhile, at least half of the elite 30,000 Russian paratroopers deployed to Ukraine have probably been killed or wounded.