Researchers examine which approaches are most effective at reducing COVID-19 spread

Simon Fraser University professors Paul Tupper and Caroline Colijn have found that physical distancing is universally effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19, while social bubbles and masks are more situation-dependent.

The researchers developed a model to test the effectiveness of measures such as physical distancing, masks or social bubbles when used in various settings.

Their paper was published Nov. 19 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS).

They introduce the concept of “event R,” which is the expected number of people who become infected with COVID-19 from one individual at an event.

Tupper and Colijn look at factors such as transmission intensity, duration of exposure, the proximity of individuals and degree of mixing — then examine what methods are most effective at preventing transmission in each circumstance.

The researchers incorporated data from reports of outbreaks at a range of events, such as parties, meals, nightclubs, public transit and restaurants. The researchers say that an individual’s chances of becoming infected with COVID-19 depend heavily on the transmission rate and the duration — the amount of time spent in a particular setting.

Events were categorized as saturating (high transmission probability) or linear (low transmission probability). Examples of high transmission settings include bars, nightclubs and overcrowded workplaces while low transmission settings include public transit with masks, distancing in restaurants and outdoor activities.

The model suggests that physical distancing was effective at reducing COVID-19 transmission in all settings but the effectiveness of social bubbles depends on whether chances of transmission are high or low.

In settings where there is mixing and the probability of transmission is high, such as crowded indoor workplaces, bars and nightclubs and high schools, having strict social bubbles can help reduce the spread of COVID-19.

The researchers found that social bubbles are less effective in low transmission settings or activities where there is mixing, such as engaging in outdoor activities, working in spaced offices or travelling on public transportation wearing masks.

They note that masks and other physical barriers may be less effective in saturating, high transmission settings (parties, choirs, restaurant kitchens, crowded offices, nightclubs and bars) because even if masks halve the transmission rates that may not have much impact on the transmission probability (and so on the number of infections).

The novel coronavirus is relatively new but the science continues to evolve and increase our knowledge of how to effectively treat and prevent this highly contagious virus. There is still much that we do not know and many areas requiring further study.

“It would be great to start collecting information from exposures and outbreaks: the number of attendees, the amount of mixing, the levels of crowding, the noise level and the duration of the event,” says Colijn, who holds a Canada Research Chair in Mathematics for Evolution, Infection and Public Health.

Story Source:

Materials provided by Simon Fraser University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Share Button

After more than a decade, ChIP-seq may be quantitative after all

For more than a decade, scientists studying epigenetics have used a powerful method called ChIP-seq to map changes in proteins and other critical regulatory factors across the genome. While ChIP-seq provides invaluable insights into the underpinnings of health and disease, it also faces a frustrating challenge: its results are often viewed as qualitative rather than quantitative, making interpretation difficult.

But, it turns out, ChIP-seq may have been quantitative all along, according to a recent report selected as an Editors’ Pick by and featured on the cover of the Journal of Biological Chemistry.

“ChIP-seq is the backbone of epigenetics research. Our findings challenge the belief that additional steps are required to make it quantitative,” said Brad Dickson, Ph.D., a staff scientist at Van Andel Institute and the study’s corresponding author. “Our new approach provides a way to quantify results, thereby making ChIP-seq more precise, while leaving standard protocols untouched.”

Previous attempts to quantify ChIP-seq results have led to additional steps being added to the protocol, including the use of “spike-ins,” which are additives designed to normalize ChIP-seq results and reveal histone changes that otherwise may be obscured. These extra steps increase the complexity of experiments while also adding variables that could interfere with reproducibility. Importantly, the study also identifies a sensitivity issue in spike-in normalization that has not previously been discussed.

Using a predictive physical model, Dickson and his colleagues developed a novel approach called the sans-spike-in method for Quantitative ChIP-sequencing, or siQ-ChIP. It allows researchers to follow the standard ChIP-seq protocol, eliminating the need for spike-ins, and also outlines a set of common measurements that should be reported for all ChIP-seq experiments to ensure reproducibility as well as quantification.

By leveraging the binding reaction at the immunoprecipitation step, siQ-ChIP defines a physical scale for sequencing results that allows comparison between experiments. The quantitative scale is based on the binding isotherm of the immunoprecipitation products.

Story Source:

Materials provided by Van Andel Research Institute. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Share Button

Covid antibodies ‘last at least six months’

The more antibodies people have, the lower their chances of re-infection, a study suggests.

Share Button

Covid: Infection rates levelling off in England and Scotland

But the government data suggests coronavirus rates in school-age children are still rising.

Share Button

Covid-19: Flu jab push as Covid vaccine roll-out planned

Matt Hancock said the NHS was preparing to roll out a Covid-19 vaccine if one is approved for use.

Share Button

NaNoWriMo – Days 18-19

My novel is up to 33,835 words now. The daily writing has become pretty habitual, so it feels like smooth sailing till the end.

Mapping the Field

As I write scene after scene, I feel like I’m mapping out a field of possibilities, not just for my story but also for what I can do with fiction writing.

This includes learning how to write different kinds of scenes and aspects of scenes, such as:

  • Dialogue between two characters
  • Dialogue with more than two characters
  • Fast action scenes
  • Slow action scenes
  • Action interspersed with dialogue
  • Indoor scenes
  • Outdoor scenes
  • Practicing “show me; don’t tell me”
  • Scenes with fixed environments
  • Scenes with changing environments
  • Solo scenes with only one character
  • Humorous scenes or moments
  • Surprises and plot twists
  • Creating different speech patterns for different characters
  • Introducing a setup in one scene to deliver a payoff in a later scene
  • Integrating exposition judiciously (without making it so obvious)
  • Weaving in subtext
  • Getting the pacing right
  • Sexually suggestive scenes
  • Sexually explicit scenes
  • Manipulative or persuasive scenes
  • Scenes involving suspicion or interrogation
  • Arguments and debates
  • Emotional, tearful, or vulnerable scenes
  • Creating interesting and varied settings
  • Sciency or geeky scenes
  • Minor setbacks
  • Major setbacks
  • Weaving a change of value for at least one character into each scene
  • Mystery elements
  • Dropping clues
  • Integrating backstory
  • Writing with different POVs (first person, third person, etc)
  • Scenes that require research
  • Describing sensory details (without overdoing it)
  • Describing characters
  • Introducing characters
  • Naming characters

So yeah… there’s a lot to learn and discover.

Tasting New Skills

The first time I write each type of scene or element, it’s a new experience for me. It feels awkward and bumbling since I’m out of my depth. But I always learn something, and the next time I attempt something similar, I’m a little better at it.

If all I do is write a type of scene and read it back the next day, I’ll surely spot some mistakes that I can learn from. And of course I can supplement this with studying the craft of writing in others ways too. But it really helps to at least taste the many different skill possibilities, so I can become familiar with them. I need to build hooks in my brain to hang all of these different skills. Then I can explore different ways to combine these skills.

This reminds me of going through a similar process when I was in Toastmasters for several years. I learned to do informative speeches, persuasive speeches, humorous speeches, Power Point presentations, storytelling, improvisational speaking, speech evaluations, speech contests, etc. Then I challenged myself with speaking opportunities outside of Toastmasters, speaking in other countries, radio and podcast interviews, and so much more.

Aligning Skills with Long-Term Goals

It took years, but eventually I acquired enough speaking experience that I could feel right at home doing my own 3-day workshops in a hotel ballroom on the Las Vegas Strip. I could weave in interactive social activities and games, bring people up on the stage with me, handle Q&A, and do plenty of spontaneous humor and playful banter. Plus I learned how to find and book rooms, negotiate meeting room contracts, to work with meeting planners. Now the whole collection of skills seems relatively straightforward, but it sure didn’t look that way when I first began.

When I’m starting fresh in a new field of learning, I find it useful to court a variety of experiences, so I can mentally map out the possibility space. This gives me more options and flexibility. It helps me figure out where I need to invest to get the most long-term leverage, so I can develop the right skills for my long-term goals.

With public speaking I wanted to do my own public workshops eventually. I didn’t want to get into corporate-style speaking. Could you see me donning a suit and speaking to groups of insurance agents and healthcare workers? No, thanks! My early skill-mapping phase for speaking helped me see where I needed to invest versus which skills I could mostly ignore. This helped me to avoid over-investing in skills that were relatively useless for my goals.

Embracing the Beginner Phase

I know from experience that the initial experience of getting into a new field can seem overwhelming. There are so many sub-skills to learn and practice, and when you’re just starting out, you’ll probably suck at all of them. That’s to be expected. But you can keep chipping away at the challenge by gaining experience, and this will add up to tremendous value over time. With speaking I did this one speech at a time. With fiction writing I’m approaching this one scene at a time.

Consequently, I’m using this first draft to practice writing different kinds of scenes. These are my first forays into the vast menu of fiction writing skills, so I want to taste a fairly wide range of skills. I’m not sure which skills I’ll need for this particular story, but by testing many different skills, I’m gaining some understanding of how I might use them.

I’ve never written a car chase scene, and I don’t anticipate including one in my novel, but since words are cheap, I could just take a stab and write one, and I’ll probably learn something useful from the experience. Even if I still don’t want to include a car chase, I might include some other kind of chase. Or maybe I’ll gain extra practice that could help me write a well-paced action scene. Moreover, I’ll surely learn more about my characters by throwing them into a car chase and seeing how they behave under that kind of pressure.

So as I see it, I’m trying to lose my fiction writing virginity with each type of skill I might find useful for fiction writing. Just crossing that threshold is useful because it reduces resistance to using unfamiliar and under-developed skills. I know my first car chase scene will be awkward to write, but if I lose my car chase virginity, I’ll expand my comfort zone. Expanding my comfort zone means that I’m also expanding the edge of my comfort zone, which means that even more interesting possibilities become accessible beyond that edge.

Another advantage to this approach is that you learn which sub-skills you enjoy. I’ve already figured out that I enjoy writing dialogue, especially between two characters. I enjoy weaving sexual tension into scenes and writing sexually explicit scenes too.

I also notice that I’m avoiding writing violent scenes. There are no guns, weapons, or fights in my book so far. So I may want to try writing a violent scene at some point to see how it goes and what I learn from it. That doesn’t mean I have to include violence in the book, but it’s good to at least explore that type of writing because it will help me understand what purpose a violent scene might serve. And by writing something violent, it also gives me a different perspective on writing a nonviolent story.

As you keep exploring known skills, eventually you’ll discover your own ways of doing things. My blog is very different from anyone else’s because I’ve followed my own path of skill development. I can see myself doing something similar with fiction writing, such as by diving into territory that seems relatively under-explored.

Share Button

Health24.com | Analysis: Unlike the global trend, South Africa’s children are too short and too overweight

  • Growth measured in height and weight recognised as a measure of health
  • Imbalance between investment in improving nutrition in pre-schoolers, and in school-aged children and adolescents
  • In SA, polices needed to to support an enabling environment

“Tall as trees” sounds very clichéd but it may not apply to children in many sub-Saharan African countries, according to a Lancet article reporting on children’s height and weight changes over the past thirty years. 

The Lancet article pooled data from over two thousand studies from two hundred countries with a study population of 65 million participants and reported on the projected changes of height and body-mass index (BMI) of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019. 

The data showed that the unhealthiest changes – gaining too little height and/or too much weight for their height occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including South Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls.

Growth measured in height and weight has long been recognised as a measure of the health of individuals, hence part of the reasoning for the promotion of routine growth monitoring for children under five years of age. In South Africa, every child is presented with a Road to Health Booklet to record and monitor their weight and height measures from birth.

Mothers and caregivers are encouraged to visit their health facility for monthly growth monitoring to track their child’s growth and development as a proxy for health. 

A major public health concern

Malnutrition identified in the failure to grow in height and weight is a major public health concern worldwide. In South Africa, 27% of children younger than five years are too short for their age and in the same age group, 15% are too fat. These indicators serve as proxies for the state of overall health.

As reflected in the Lancet article, young South African children are too short and too fat.Our adolescent nutrition profile does not paint a much better picture, with 6.1% males and 16.7% females in the age group 15-19 years overweight and their average height below the global average of 1.62m. 

The Lancet reported that 19-year-old boys in 11 countries throughout Asia, Latin America, and sub-Saharan Africa had the same mean height as that of Dutch boys aged 13 years. In many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with emerging economies, the height of children and adolescents, especially boys, has on average stagnated or become shorter since 1985.

This points directly to the increasing levels of poverty driving the vicious cycle of malnutrition as households and communities struggle to access adequate and sufficiently nutritious food. The Lancet reported that the largest improvements in average height of children over the 35-year period were seen in emerging economies such as China, South Korea and some parts of southeast Asia.

For example, 19-year-old boys in China in 2019 were 8cm taller than in 1985, with their global rank changing from 150th tallest in 1985 to 65th in 2019. Over the same period, the average height of South African girls stagnated, while boys gained only around 2cm.

Nineteen-year-old South African girls had the same average height as 12-year-old Dutch girls, while South African boys of the same age had the average height of 14-year-old Dutch boys. 

South Africa is mentioned in the report as one of the countries where children compared fairly well with international growth references at the age of five years, but by the time they reached 19 years, they fell behind due to insufficient growth in height during school-age years.

While little or no height was gained per year of age, the girls in particular gained weight, so that the average weight of South African girls in each age group was markedly higher after 2010 than in the 1980s and was in the overweight range at age 19 years.

Falling behind

The Lancet report also highlighted that while children in some countries grow healthily to age five years, they fall behind in the school years in terms of growth in length.

This highlights that there is an imbalance between investment in improving nutrition in pre-schoolers, and in school-aged children and adolescents. This issue was especially important during the Covid-19 pandemic when schools were closed throughout the world, and many poor families are unable to provide adequate nutrition for their children.

This recognition that school feeding is an important and integral intervention to promote and sustain child nutrition, prompted civil society in South Africa to approach the courts to force government to reinstate the national school nutrition programme.

While many school-aged children do not have access to adequate nutritious food for linear growth and physical development, they seem to have high enough intakes of sweetened cold drinks and cheap snack foods to gain excessive weight. Some of these cold drinks and snacks are even available in the school environment at low cost.

This is probably an important driver of the weight gain reported in South African school-age girls.

Ensure food security

The Lancet report re-affirms the imperative to sustain adequate food and nutrition support throughout the critical stages of life including during pregnancy, early childhood, adolescent and adult years to consolidate and reap the benefits gained in food and nutrition interventions and investments in infants and children younger than five years.

This is imperative because adolescents and women of child-bearing age are the future parents of the next generation of children. 

Mothers with poor nutritional status will bear children with poor nutritional status and this is a lost and costly opportunity as malnutrition castes a long shadow into the future robbing individuals, communities and countries of health, well-being and development.

If we are to improve child health and nutrition, governments need to ensure food security.

Food security is defined as all people at all times having physical and economic access to adequate amounts of nutritious, safe, and culturally appropriate foods. This will help children grow taller without gaining excessive weight for their height. 

To achieve these goals, South Africa needs policies to support an enabling environment, with restricted access to unhealthy foods and drinks and more access to facilities in the community and in the school environment for safe play and sports.

*Dr Witten is at based the University of the Free State’s Faculty of Health Sciences, Division of Health Science Education. Kruger is a Professor at the North-West University’s Centre of Excellence for Nutrition.

*This article was produced by SPOTLIGHT – health journalism in the public interest. SIGN UP for our newsletter.

Image credit: Unsplash

NEXT ON HEALTH24X

Share Button

Covid-19 carriers ‘most infectious earlier on’

Greatest risk of passing the virus on is in the first few days of having symptoms, analysis suggests.

Share Button

Inside test-and-trace – how the ‘world beater’ went wrong

BBC News spoke to key government figures, scientists and health officials involved from the start.

Share Button

Climate change and ‘atmospheric thirst’ to increase fire danger and drought in NV and CA

Climate change and a “thirsty atmosphere” will bring more extreme wildfire danger and multi-year droughts to Nevada and California by the end of this century, according to new research from the Desert Research Institute (DRI), the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego, and the University of California, Merced.

In a new study published in Earth’s Future, scientists looked at future projections of evaporative demand — a measure of how dry the air is — in California and Nevada through the end of the 21st century. They then examined how changes in evaporative demand would impact the frequency of extreme fire danger and three-year droughts, based on metrics from the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).

According to their results, climate change projections show consistent future increases in atmospheric evaporative demand (or the “atmospheric thirst”) over California and Nevada. These changes were largely driven by warmer temperatures, and would likely lead to significant on-the-ground environmental impacts.

“Higher evaporative demand during summer and autumn — peak fire season in the region — means faster drying of soil moisture and vegetation, and available fuels becoming more flammable, leading to fires that can burn faster and hotter,” explained lead author Dan McEvoy, Ph.D., Assistant Research Professor of Climatology at DRI.

“Increased evaporative demand with warming enables fuels to be drier for longer periods,” added coauthor John Abatzoglou, Ph.D., Associate Professor with the University of California, Merced. “This is a recipe for more active fire seasons.”

The research team found that days with extreme fire danger in summer and autumn are expected to increase four to 10 times by the end of the century. Their results also showed that multi-year droughts, similar to that experienced in California and Nevada during 2012-2016, were projected to increase three to 15 times by the end of the century.

“One major takeaway was that we can expect to see a lot more days in the summer and autumn with extreme fire danger related to increased temperature and evaporative demand,” McEvoy said. “Another takeaway was that even in locations where precipitation may not change that much in future, droughts are going to become more severe due to higher evaporative demand.”

Study authors say that the cumulative effects of increases in evaporative demand will stress native ecosystems, increase fire danger, negatively impact agriculture where water demands cannot be met, and exacerbate impacts to society during periods of prolonged dryness. Several members of the research team are part of the California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP), and will use these study results to provide resource managers with a view of possible future scenarios.

“These results provide information to support science-based, long-term planning for fire management agencies, forest management agencies, and water resource managers,” said coauthor Julie Kalansky, Ph.D., Program Manager for CNAP. “We plan to work with partners to help integrate the findings from this paper to support building climate resilience.”

Story Source:

Materials provided by Desert Research Institute. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Share Button