It will use rapid results tests that could be offered to “millions” by Christmas, the PM says.
Category Archives: Mind Building
Covid: Deaths 10% higher than normal as virus deaths rise
There were nearly 12,300 deaths in latest week – 1,100 linked to Covid.
New simulation finds max cost for cost-effective health treatments

As health care costs balloon in the U.S., experts say it may be important to analyze whether those costs translate into better population health. A new study led by a Penn State researcher analyzed existing data to find a dividing line — or “threshold — for what makes a treatment cost-effective or not.
David Vanness, professor of health policy and administration, led a team of researchers that created a simulation to consider health care treatment costs, insurance premiums, quality of life, and life expectancy to explore whether a treatment delivers enough value for its costs to be considered beneficial for population health.
According to Vanness, the term “treatment cost” in this research incorporates all the costs and savings related to a treatment. For example, the cost of a treatment to lower blood cholesterol would include how much it costs but also take into account potential savings for preventing a heart attack and its subsequent treatment.
“We know that we are spending more and more on health care in the U.S. and that we’re getting less and less for it,” Vanness said. “We do a good job of developing new treatments in this country, but we don’t do a good job of covering everybody or making sure that people have access to basic health care. We’re spending a lot on our medical treatments, but many of those treatments just don’t have a lot of value.”
Vanness added that in order to improve a population’s health without spending too much, it’s important to be able to tell whether the prices drug and device manufacturers are charging are justified by what they deliver in health improvements.
The researchers found that in their simulation, for every $10,000,000 increase in health care expenditures, 1860 people became uninsured. This led to five deaths, 81 quality-adjusted life-years lost due to death, and 15 quality-adjusted life-years lost due to illness. In health care economics, one quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) is equal to one year of perfect health.
Vanness said these results — recently published in the Annals of Internal Medicine — suggests a cost effectiveness threshold of $104,000 per QALY.
“If a treatment is beneficial but it costs more than about $100,000 to gain one quality-adjusted life-year using that treatment, then it may not be a good deal,” Vanness said. “Because our simulation was using data estimates, we wanted to come up with a range of plausible values. So anything over a range of $100,000 to $150,000 per QALY gained is likely to actually make our population’s health fall.”
To create the simulation, Vanness said he and the other researchers used a variety of data, starting with estimates about how likely people are to drop their insurance when their premiums go up.
“We also used evidence from the public health literature on what happens to people’s health and mortality when they gain or lose health insurance,” Vanness said.
The simulation then compiled that data and estimated how much the health of a population goes down when costs increase. According to Vanness, that relationship determines the cost-effectiveness threshold — how much a treatment can cost relative to the health benefits it gives before it causes more harm than good.
The researchers said the findings could be especially important to organizations like the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review, which provides analysis to several private and public insurers to help negotiate prices with manufacturers. These organizations could use the findings as empirical evidence for what makes a treatment a good value in the U.S.
“Moving forward, I think some changes could be made to national policy to make cost effectiveness analysis more commonly used,” Vanness said. “Our goal is to get that information out there with the hope that somebody is going to use it to help guide coverage or maybe get manufacturers to reduce their prices on some of these drugs.”
James Lomas, University of York, and Hannah Ahn, a Penn State graduate students, also participated in this work.
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Materials provided by Penn State. Original written by Katie Bohn. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
‘Transparent solar cells’ can take us towards a new era of personalized energy

Today, the imminent climate change crisis demands a shift from conventionally used fossil fuels to efficient sources of green energy. This has led to researchers looking into the concept of “personalized energy,” which would make on-site energy generation possible. For example, solar cells could possibly be integrated into windows, vehicles, cellphone screens, and other everyday products. But for this, it is important for the solar panels to be handy and transparent. To this end, scientists have recently developed “transparent photovoltaic” (TPV) devices — transparent versions of the traditional solar cell. Unlike the conventionally dark, opaque solar cells (which absorb visible light), TPVs make use of the “invisible” light that falls in the ultraviolet (UV) range.
Conventional solar cells can be either “wet type” (solution based) or “dry type” (made up of metal-oxide semiconductors). Of these, dry-type solar cells have a slight edge over the wet-type ones: they are more reliable, eco-friendly, and cost-effective. Moreover, metal-oxides are well-suited to make use of the UV light. Despite all this, however, the potential of metal-oxide TPVs has not been fully explored until now.
To this end, researchers from Incheon National University, Republic of Korea, came up with an innovative design for a metal-oxide-based TPV device. They inserted an ultra-thin layer of silicon (Si) between two transparent metal-oxide semiconductors with the goal of developing an efficient TPV device. These findings were published in a study in Nano Energy, which was made available online on August 10, 2020 (ahead of the scheduled final publication in the December 2020 issue). Prof Joondong Kim, who led the study, explains, “Our aim was to devise a high-power-producing transparent solar cell, by embedding an ultra-thin film of amorphous Si between zinc oxide and nickel oxide.”
This novel design consisting of the Si film had three major advantages. First, it allowed for the utilization of longer-wavelength light (as opposed to bare TPVs). Second, it resulted in efficient photon collection. Third, it allowed for the faster transport of charged particles to the electrodes. Moreover, the design can potentially generate electricity even under low-light situations (for instance, on cloudy or rainy days). The scientists further confirmed the power-generating ability of the device by using it to operate the DC motor of a fan.
Based on these findings, the research team is optimistic that the real-life applicability of this new TPV design will soon be possible. As for potential applications, there are plenty, as Prof Kim explains, “We hope to extend the use of our TPV design to all kinds of material, right from glass buildings to mobile devices like electric cars, smartphones, and sensors.” Not just this, the team is excited to take their design to the next level, by using innovative materials such as 2D semiconductors, nanocrystals of metal-oxides, and sulfide semiconductors. As Prof Kim concludes, “Our research is essential for a sustainable green future — especially to connect the clean energy system with no or minimal carbon footprint.”
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Materials provided by Incheon National University. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Self-watering soil could transform farming

A new type of soil created by engineers at The University of Texas at Austin can pull water from the air and distribute it to plants, potentially expanding the map of farmable land around the globe to previously inhospitable places and reducing water use in agriculture at a time of growing droughts.
As published in ACS Materials Letters, the team’s atmospheric water irrigation system uses super-moisture-absorbent gels to capture water from the air. When the soil is heated to a certain temperature, the gels release the water, making it available to plants. When the soil distributes water, some of it goes back into the air, increasing humidity and making it easier to continue the harvesting cycle.
“Enabling free-standing agriculture in areas where it’s hard to build up irrigation and power systems is crucial to liberating crop farming from the complex water supply chain as resources become increasingly scarce,” said Guihua Yu, associate professor of materials science in the Walker Department of Mechanical Engineering.
Each gram of soil can extract approximately 3-4 grams of water. Depending on the crops, approximately 0.1 to 1 kilogram of the soil can provide enough water to irrigate about a square meter of farmland.
The gels in the soil pull water out of the air during cooler, more humid periods at night. Solar heat during the day activates the water-containing gels to release their contents into soil.
The team ran experiments on the roof of the Cockrell School’s Engineering Teaching Center building at UT Austin to test the soil. They found that the hydrogel soil was able to retain water better than sandy soils found in dry areas, and it needed far less water to grow plants.
During a four-week experiment, the team found that its soil retained approximately 40% of the water quantity it started with. In contrast, the sandy soil had only 20% of its water left after just one week.
In another experiment, the team planted radishes in both types of soil. The radishes in the hydrogel soil all survived a 14-day period without any irrigation beyond an initial round to make sure the plants took hold. Radishes in the sandy soil were irrigated several times during the first four days of the experiment. None of the radishes in the sandy soil survived more than two days after the initial irrigation period.
“Most soil is good enough to support the growth of plants,” said Fei Zhao, a postdoctoral researcher in Yu’s research group who led the study with Xingyi Zhou and Panpan Zhang. “It’s the water that is the main limitation, so that is why we wanted to develop a soil that can harvest water from the ambient air.”
The water-harvesting soil is the first big application of technology that Yu’s group has been working on for more than two years. Last year, the team developed the capability to use gel-polymer hybrid materials that work like “super sponges,” extracting large amounts of water from the ambient air, cleaning it and quickly releasing it using solar energy.
The researchers envision several other applications of the technology. It could potentially be used for cooling solar panels and data centers. It could expand access to drinking water, either through individual systems for households or larger systems for big groups such as workers or soldiers.
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Materials provided by University of Texas at Austin. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
Coronavirus lockdown: PM warns UK faces ‘medical disaster’ without action
Boris Johnsons says lockdown rules will expire on 2 December – with MPs to vote on what happens next.
T-cell response ‘lasts six months after Covid infection’
But it is still not clear how much this protects people against being re-infected, experts say.
Covid: Target ‘hit’ for 500,000 tests a day in the UK
Network of mega-labs and use of over 100 small labs increases capacity for testing.
NaNoWriMo – Day 1

I did my first day of NaNoWriMo yesterday, writing the first 1696 words of a new novel – basically one full scene from start to finish. It took an hour with a 10-min break in the middle, so it was 50 minutes of writing time.
And oh it’s bad – so hideously bad – but it’s a start. It introduces a couple of characters, including the protagonist, sets up the theme, and has a bunch of dialog, but as far as fiction writing goes, it needs a lot of work.
I made some editing notes too, just to jot down some changes and improvements that popped into my mind along the way. I put those in a different section of the doc, so Scrivener didn’t count them as part of the word count. I like that Scrivener will just count the words in the Manuscript section, and it plays a sound and pops up a message when I hit my daily word count goal, which is 1667 words.
I was curious about how much I could leverage my nonfiction writing experience to get into fiction. I do think it helps a little but not as much as you might think. Writing fiction feels very different because I have to think about characters and plot and scene flow. It’s not just about communicating ideas and actions steps. I think it’s going to take me a while to get into a fiction-writing mindset. There’s definitely going to be a learning curve there.
I’m investing in the learning curve directly by listening to audiobooks on fiction writing every morning. I’ve also been reading articles and watching YouTube videos from experienced writers to learn more about storycraft. I want to continue investing in the learning side while I’m also doing the writing, so I can connect the dots between what I’m learning from others and what I’m actually encountering as I write.
I’m sure that given enough time, I can learn the craft of writing decent fiction too, even if it takes years. It isn’t easy though because there’s a lot to think about and pay attention to, and I’m just beginning to learn the basics.
Honestly I think what helps me way more than my previous writing experience is my personal development know-how, mindsets, and frameworks.
One thing that helps is to think about the purpose for getting into this. Why bother? Is it just to write one novel? I find it more motivating to learn the craft of fiction as another medium of self-expression. It’s a whole new world of self-development to explore. I feel that it would add something precious to my character if I could learn how to do this.
I was surprised to see that a lot of people do NaNoWriMo, create a draft of a new book, and then never finish it up and publish it. And they may do NaNoWriMo year after year without publishing anything, not even self-publishing. I don’t want to write a story just for myself. Part of my motivation is to write something to share. I’m already imagining people reading it someday. To me that raises the stakes and makes me feel more invested in learning how to write good fiction. I don’t just want to crank out some drivel to sit in cloud storage indefinitely. It doesn’t cost anything to set more ambitious goals, and thinking bigger tends to be more motivating than thinking small.
I also love to adopt frames that let me enjoy and embrace the beginner phase when my skills are weakest and there’s a lot road of learning and mistakes ahead. I have lots of different frames that have helped me there, such as:
- If you want to win, you’ve got to begin.
- Everyone falls the first time.
- It’s better than being in jail.
- It can only get better from here.
- Embrace the suck.
- Laugh at yourself.
- It’s called learning.
- If I can learn ____, I can learn this.
- Even writing a bad scene feels like an accomplishment.
- Every step is a step forward.
- Stop whining and just go.
- Everyone’s got a plan… till they get hit.
- Do you want to do this – or watch other people do it?
- Do you want the memory?
- It’s just typing.
- I’ll fix it in editing.
- I can at least write better than most monkeys.
- This will be a growth experience.
- Whatever it takes!
- So it’s to be torture then. I can cope with torture.
It’s important to separate ego from results, especially when you’re first starting out. It’s unreasonable to expect yourself to do well at something new. It takes time to build experience.
When I start something new, I give myself permission to be bad at it, and I don’t beat myself up for that. It’s just my starting point. That makes me feel optimistic since I know I’ll get better with more practice. The 50th scene I write will surely be better than the first one I wrote yesterday.
This morning while listening to an audiobook on writing, the author shared that many writers seem to hit a wall at around 30,000 words, where it seems like a real slog to get to the end. Maybe that will happen, and maybe it won’t, but it’s good to know that there may be walls ahead and that one solution is to just keep writing more scenes. Walls are normal with different learning experiences. If you have a good purpose though, you just keep going. Your purpose must be larger than the obstacles you’ll encounter. An obstacle is a lesson and an invitation to further growth, not an excuse to quit.
If you’re only writing for yourself, I think it’s easier to stop and quit when things get tough. Or you can just let the project fade away. If I just want to write for myself, I can do that in my journal. But a novel is for other people. So I’m thinking about – and designing it for – the eventual readers.
This elevates the experience in my mind. It’s not just a solo pursuit. I imagine one day chatting at a coffee shop with someone who’s read the book, as we both enjoy discussing the characters and themes together.
When I enjoy a nice work of fiction like a book, movie, video game, or TV series, I sometimes think: How cool it is that someone created this! What a nice gift.
Have you ever thought this way? Have you ever at least internally felt some appreciation for the massive creative and cultural abundance you’ve been able to enjoy? Or do you take it for granted?
I was really into movie culture while growing up in L.A. On many weekend nights, my high school friends and I would drive to Hollywood or Westwood to see movies there, often on opening night. Then afterwards we’d hang out, maybe grab a late night bite to eat, and discuss the movie we just saw or quote various lines back to each other. I found so much enjoyment and connection – and sometimes solace – in the fictional works that other people created. I think that always made me want to gift something back to that space.
There’s something about fiction that plugs into culture in a way that nonfiction really doesn’t. I feel like I’m already plugged into so many expressions of culture as someone who appreciates other people’s fictional worlds and characters. Now I’d like to learn how to connect with that world with some creative energy as well.
Health24.com | Risk of severe Covid-19 may depend on your type of asthma
- Asthma has not proven to be one of the top comorbid diseases for worse Covid-19 outcomes
- Researchers have speculated that people with allergy-driven asthma might even have some protection against Covid-19
- They, however, found that non-allergic asthma increases the risk of severe Covid-19 by up to 48%
Everyone agrees about the good news – people whose asthma is spurred on by allergies don’t appear to have an increased risk of life-threatening illness if they contract Covid-19.
“Asthma has not risen as one of the top comorbid diseases for worse Covid-19 outcomes,” said Dr Sandhya Khurana, director of the Mary Parkes Center for Asthma, Allergy and Pulmonary Care at the University of Rochester (New York) Medical Center. “We always worry with asthma and viral infections, because they seem to trigger asthma exacerbation unreasonably. But what we’ve seen so far is reassuring.”
But debate continues to swirl regarding the potential severity of Covid infection in people with non-allergic asthma.
Non-allergic asthma
Some studies have suggested that people who have asthma caused by something other than allergies – exercise, stress, air pollution, weather conditions – might have an increased risk of severe Covid-19.
For example, Harvard researchers found that having non-allergic asthma increased the risk of severe Covid-19 by as much as 48%. That conclusion was based on data from 65 000 asthma sufferers presented in the June issue of the Journal of Allergy and Clinical Immunology.
“For those people, I think being more cautious would be good for them,” said senior researcher Liming Liang, an associate professor of statistical genetics at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health in Boston. “I think the next wave is coming. We’ve got to be more cautious.”
But other experts note that the data involving Covid and non-allergic asthma sufferers is very limited, and any conclusions that these people are at higher risk of severe infection could be flawed.
Their asthma could be caused by other lung ailments that are associated with more serious cases of Covid, for instance, said Dr Mitchell Grayson, chief of allergy and immunology at Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio.
A reasonable suspicion
“There have been several studies that have shown that COPD does increase your risk of more severe disease,” he said. “I don’t think these studies have done a good job of excluding COPD in these patients.”
Grayson agrees with Khurana that in the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic, there was much concern that asthma could be a risk factor – a reasonable suspicion, given that the coronavirus attacks the lungs.
But everything that came out of the initial epidemic in China suggested that asthma was not a risk factor for life-threatening Covid, Grayson said, and the data continued to confirm that as the coronavirus spread across the globe.
“It’s not there in the data. If it is there, it’s an extremely small risk. It’s nothing I can see,” he said.
Researchers have speculated that people with allergy-driven asthma might have some protection against Covid, due to the way the coronavirus infects the body.
The SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes Covid-19 enters lung cells by engaging with a type of protein on their surface called an ACE2 receptor, Khurana said.
Not as many ACE2 receptors
“In the setting of an allergic type of inflammation, the expression of the ACE2 receptor appears to be downregulated. It appears to be lower. There’s not as much receptor,” she said.
Because there aren’t as many ACE2 receptors available, people with allergic asthma might not be as vulnerable to severe infection, Khurana said. This theory also could help explain why other chronic diseases appear to increase Covid risk, she added.
“Patients in conditions like diabetes or hypertension, this receptor expression is increased,” Khurana said. “That’s a possible reason why those comorbid diseases are at especially high risk for this infection.”
But that only explains why allergic asthma isn’t a major risk factor for severe Covid, Grayson said. It doesn’t explain why some studies are finding increased risk among people with non-allergic asthma.
Grayson suspects that the purported link between non-allergic asthma and Covid found in these studies is actually a link between a Covid and a host of different lung ailments, especially COPD.
Scratching the surface
“There are studies showing that COPD increases your risk of more severe Covid, not markedly but a little bit, not to the extent of things like hypertension and diabetes and [being] elderly,” he said. “I’m concerned that what they’re calling non-allergic asthma actually is COPD, which would skew their data.”
In Khurana’s view, more study is needed, particularly prospective studies that track people with different types of asthma prior to Covid infection.
“So far, we just don’t know enough to make any conclusions. I think we’re still scratching the surface here and still have a lot to learn,” she said.
In the meantime, it would pay for everyone to protect themselves, Khurana added.
“It’s good practice to observe the recommended guidance on hand hygiene and physical distancing and masking and avoiding any situation where you could be exposed, even though it’s obviously welcome to see that allergic asthma is not as high-risk as some of the other comorbid diseases,” Khurana said.
Image credit: Getty Images


