Tag Archives: Politics

Could Nigel Farage Really Become The Next Prime Minister?

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Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf could never be accused of lacking ambition.

“Nigel Farage will be the next prime minister, and will return Britain to greatness,” he told HuffPost UK this week.

He is far from the only one at Westminster who is now considering the prospect of the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader entering 10 Downing Street.

Given Reform currently only have five MPs, it seems like a ridiculously far-fetched idea.

But speak to senior Tory and Labour figures and it is not difficult to detect a note of anxiety in their voices when the discussion inevitably turns to Farage.

“Reform are a threat to both us and Labour,” said one former Tory cabinet minister.

“We’ve got caught in a cycle where the public perceived that we were rubbish, then Labour have come in and been rubbish as well, so a lot of voters just want to blow the whole thing up.

“There is no doubt that in the short term, Reform are in a strong position. If there’s a by-election outwith Lib Dem areas they would probably win it, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win the general election.”

Farage’s party received 4.1 million votes at the last election, around 600,000 more than the Lib Dems.

However, the vagaries of the first past the post system meant the Liberals were rewarded with 72 MPs to Reform’s five.

“It’s very difficult for an insurgent party to go from a handful of seats into government, said Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta.

“In particular for Reform UK, their support base is currently quite evenly spread across the country, meaning they will struggle to break through in anywhere near enough seats to put Nigel Farage into No.10 without a significant increase in their vote share.

“That being said, if any current political leader can bend our electoral system to their will, I’d wager it would be Nigel Farage. I think at the very least it’s likely Farage and Reform UK will play an even more significant role in British politics over the next five years than they have in the last decade.”

A council by-election result on Thursday neatly summed up the current state of play.

In the Blackbrook ward on St Helens Council, from a standing start, Reform UK took the seat from Labour with 41% of the vote. Labour’s share fell by 18%, while the Tories’ was down by 10% on the last time it was contested.

A poll last week also put Reform above Labour for the first time, demonstrating once again that it isn’t just the Conservatives who need to worry about the threat from the party.

One senior Labour insider said: “We have definitely got to take it seriously. The problem is, for many voters, they just associate us with getting rid of winter fuel payments and accepting a load of free suits and glasses.

“We’re still not telling a story about what a Labour government is all about. It’s too technocratic, we need to start speaking the language of ordinary people.”

“All Westminster will be talking about in 2025 is how Farage does in the local elections in May and in any by-elections that might take place,” the source went on.

“It’s going to be the Farage show for the next 12 months, but Labour need to make sure that he isn’t the only show in town.”

Those electoral performances will be boosted by the efforts of Nick Candy, the billionaire property magnate and husband of Holly Valance who was unveiled this week as Reform UK’s new treasurer.

“I will raise more money for Reform than an political party in the UK has ever raised – Nigel Farage is going to be PM,” Candy declared.

Experienced Labour figures admit the threat from Reform is real, and say the party must approach it head-on.

Former frontbencher Jon Ashworth, who lost his seat at the general election and is now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, said: “It’s incumbent on all of us to put them under scrutiny.

“What is his policy on the economy? They’re usually in favour of the super rich. How’s that going to improve the cost of living for people in Bolsover?

“What’s his policy on the NHS? In the past he’s spoken about privatising the health service. That’s not going to go down well with the public.”

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s approach is markedly different, however.

In an interview with The Spectator, she said: “We just have to focus on what the Conservatives are about now and not worry about Reform in the immediate term.

“Of course they are a competitor, but right now I am the leader of the Conservative party and that is my focus.”

One Tory MP dismissed Reform completely, describing the party as “a protest vote”.

“People wanted to send the Tories a message,” they said. “Reform have no policies.”

Writing in the New Statesman, former Tory cabinet minister David Gauke also played down the prospects of a Farage premiership.

“There is an opportunity for an insurgent populist party to emerge as a proper parliamentary force at the next election, further fracturing our political system,” he said.

“This in itself is a significant development. But are we on the cusp of a Farage-led government? No, that still appears to be a distant prospect.”

Nevertheless, Zia Yusuf remains a man on a mission.

He told HuffPost UK: “History is being made as the stranglehold the two old parties have had on British politics is breaking for the first time in a century.

“Reform is rapidly professionalising, our membership growth is ballistic and we are preparing to fight elections across the country.”

With the next election potentially still four-and-a-half years away, much can change to alter the current British political landscape.

It is not so long ago that Donald Trump’s political career appeared over and Boris Johnson seemed set for a decade in power.

But it was significant that Farage was recently installed as the favourite with some bookies to be the next PM.

The last 10 years of UK politics have seen some previously-unthinkable changes become reality. It would be unwise to bet against the next decade being equally dramatic.

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UK Economy Shrinks For Second Month In A Row, Dealing A Blow To Rachel Reeves

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The UK economy unexpectedly shrunk again in October in a huge blow for Rachel Reeves.

Figures released on Friday morning by the Office for National Statistics showed gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1%, just as it had done in September.

Labour has made growing the economy its number one priority.

But the ONS data showed the construction sector shrank by 0.4% and the production sector fell by 0.6%.

Reeves said: “We are determined to deliver economic growth as higher growth means increased living standards for everyone, everywhere. This is what our plan for change is all about.

“While the figures this month are disappointing, we have put in place policies to deliver long term economic growth.

“We have put public finances back on a stable footing, capped the rate of corporation tax at the lowest level in the G7, established a £70 billion national wealth fund to drive growth in our towns and cities, launched a 10 year infrastructure strategy and are creating pension mega funds to boost investment in British businesses, infrastructure and clean energy.”

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride said: “It is no wonder businesses are sounding the alarm. This fall in growth shows the stark impact of the Chancellor’s decisions and continually talking down the economy.

“Labour were left the fastest growing economy in the G7 but because of their decisions growth is now under serious pressure. The impact will be felt by families through higher taxes, fewer jobs, higher prices and higher interest rates.”

Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson Daisy Cooper said: “This unexpected fall in GDP shows why it’s so disappointing that the Budget missed so many opportunities and made so many self-defeating decisions.

“Small businesses are the engine of our economy and drive growth. Yet this government has decided to burden them with more costs.

“If the government wants to turn these figures around then they should realise their mistake and reverse their NICs hike on small business.”

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Nato Chief Says Its Members Must Move To ‘Wartime Mindset’ As Putin Increases Threats To West

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Nato’s chief has urged the alliance’s members to adopt a “wartime mindset” over the growing threat from Russia in the coming years.

The secretary general, Mark Rutte, said all of Nato’s members should consider increasing defence spending above the current target of 2% of GDP.

Speaking in Brussels, he said: “Russia is preparing for long-term confrontation, with Ukraine and with us.

“We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. It is time to shift to a wartime mindset and turbocharge our defence production and defence spending.”

Russian president Vladimir Putin has long blamed Nato’s supposed expansion to the east for pushing him chose to invade Ukraine in 2022, because he said it made Moscow feel threatened.

Ukraine wants to join Nato, but might be pressured to drop that bid in order to secure a peace deal with Russia when president-elect Donald Trump enters the White House next month.

Rutte said Nato members spent more than 3% of their GDP on defence during the Cold War, when tensions between the US and Russia were high.

He also said Nato need to be aware of China’s ambitions, especially when it comes to its intentions towards Taiwan.

His comments will be seen as an attempt to pre-empt Trump, who is expected to repeat his calls for all Nato member states to increase their defence spending.

In 2018, during his last term in office, Trump pushed for Nato allies to double their military funding target to 4% of GDP.

At the moment, many member states spend less than the 2% on defence.

Around 23 of the 32 members are expected to reach the target amount by the end of the year.

The UK currently spends just over 2%, but defence secretary John Healey reiterated last week that the UK is “totally committed to increasing defence spending to 2.5% of GDP”.

He said 2.5% of GDP on defence would be “a level we haven’t seen in this country since 2010, when Labour was last in government”.

Labour has not put clear timeline on that promise, though.

Less than a week after he was elected in July, PM Keir Starmer also said the government have a “cast iron” commitment” to hiking defence spending.

He said: “At a time when we face multiple threats at home and abroad, we must make sure we are ready to defend ourselves.”

Yet he prefaced that this increase in defence would have to be “within our fiscal rules” and that a “strategic review needs to come first”.

In response to Rutte’s comments, a spokesman for Keir Starmer said: “We’ve said we’ll set out a pathway to 2.5% in the spring and we hope other allies will follow suit in due course.”

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No 10 Tells Protesting Farmers Controversial Inheritance Tax Policy Will Not Be Changed

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The government will not U-turn on controversial changes to inheritance tax rules for farmers, No.10 has confirmed.

Keir Starmer’s official spokesman ruled out any climbdown as thousands of farmers, many of them driving tractors, once again descended on Westminster to protest against the policy.

Some of the placards on display read “No farmers, no food” and “Starmer Farmer Harmer”.

Rachel Reeves announced in the Budget that farms worth more than £1 million will become liable for the charge, albeit at the reduced rate of 20%.

Farmers’ leaders have warned that the move – which ministers say is necessary to help fill a £22 billion financial black hole left by the Tories – will put many farms out of business.

But asked if there could be a re-think on the inheritance tax changes, the PM’s spokesman said: “No. We have been clear that we understand the strength of feeling about the changes, but we are clear that this will only affect a small number of estates.

“Three-quarters of estates will be unaffected by these changes. But the government’s commitment to farmers is steadfast.”

He said the Budget had also seen the government pledge £5 billion-worth of support for farmers “which is already starting to land in farmers’ pockets”.

The spokesman added: “We recognise the strength of feeling, but we are committed to supporting our farmers, delivering rural economic growth and boosting Britain’s food security.”

Tom Bradshaw, the head of the National Farmers Union, had earlier told MPs that he feared some elderly farmers could commit suicide as a result of the policy.

If a farm is passed on to another family member, it is not subject to inheritance tax if the original owner lives for another seven years.

But giving evidence to the rural affairs committee, Bradshaw broke down in tears as he said: “Those people who are either in ill health or don’t believe they are going to be able to live for seven years may well decide that they shouldn’t be here on April 26.

“No policy should ever be published that has that unintended side-effect.”

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Putin Conveniently Forgets There Is An International Arrest Warrant Out For Him In Latest Speech

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Vladimir Putin seemed to overlook the international arrest warrant out against him while calling for everyone to adhere to the law.

The International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for the Russian president in March 2023 over his alleged involvement in the abduction of children from Ukraine.

The Court’s 124 signatory countries are therefore expected to arrest him if he ever sets foot on their land – meaning his travel plans have been significantly scaled down over the last 18 months.

Russia itself is not a signatory of the statute and has denied the claims against Putin.

Still, according to Russian state news agency TASS, the president claimed: “We stand united in advocating for the establishment of a just and democratic world order founded on genuine equality and adherence to international law, free from all forms of discrimination, coercion, and sanctions pressure, settling regional conflicts and crises, as well as combating the terrorist threat.”

Speaking in his message to participants of the Russia-Islamic World Strategic Vision Group events in Malaysia, he also emphasised the “great importance” on strengthening ties with Muslim countries.

He continued: “In the current challenging international climate, it is significant that our positions on key regional and global issues are largely aligned.”

It’s worth noting that Putin is currently offering up asylum to Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian dictator who was toppled at the weekend – Moscow propped up his brutal regime for years.

Putin is also allied with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un who is known for oppressing his civilians.

The Russian president himself is thought to have fixed the recent election so he could secure a fifth term in office.

Putin has also brushed off the impact of the arrest warrant on his life recently, claiming in October: “Decisions of this kind are very easy to circumvent, it is enough to sign an intergovernmental agreement and that’s it – the jurisdiction of the ICC will be limited.”

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Exclusive: Ministers Try To Rebuild Bridges With Whitehall After Starmer’s ‘Trumpian’ Attack On Civil Servants

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Ministers are trying to restore relations with their civil servants after comments by Keir Starmer caused fury last week, HuffPost UK can reveal.

In a major speech, the prime minister claimed too many in Whitehall “are comfortable in the tepid bath of managed decline”.

He said they had “forgotten, to paraphrase JFK, that you choose change, not because it’s easy, but because it’s hard”.

That prompted Dave Penman, general secretary of civil servants’ union the FDA, to write to the PM accusing him of a “Trumpian” attack on his members.

A Whitehall source told HuffPost UK that senior ministers are “doing the rounds to show love” in their departments in an attempt to repair the damage caused by the prime minister’s comments.

One civil service source said: “We’re tired of being criticised in public and thanked in private – that’s what happened with the last government.”

In a further attempt at improving relations with officials, Starmer today wrote a letter to civil servants thanking them for their efforts.

He said: “From my time as Director of Public Prosecutions, I know first-hand just how fortunate this country is to have a civil service that is admired across the world.

“I saw it every day, I depended on it every day, I was proud to be part of it every day. And from all I have seen during my first five months as prime minister, my appreciation for your service to this country has only grown.”

But responding to the PM’s letter, Dave Penman said it did not go far enough.

He said: “I’m sure civil servants will welcome the message from the prime minister, recognising the challenges the civil service faces as it strives to deliver the government’s agenda and their shared desire to deliver better public services.

“But he needs to to go further. As minister for the civil service, the prime minister should not underestimate the damage his remarks last week made.

“If he is to deliver his vision for change, he needs to inspire, not denigrate the civil service.”

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Turkish President Erdogan Says He And Putin Are ‘Only’ Two Leaders Left In The World

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The Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan just claimed he and Vladimir Putin are the “only” two leaders left in the world.

Speaking after Syrian rebels ousted Bashar al-Assad, who had ruled Turkey’s neighbour since 2000, Erdogan heaped praise on Russia’s authoritarian leader.

He said: “Now, there are only two leaders in the world. They are myself and Vladimir Putin.

“I am not saying this because one of them is me. But I have been in office for 22 years, nearly as long as Mr Putin. The rest are gone.”

Putin has been in power for the best part of 25 years and often accused of rigging elections to stay in power.

Turkey is seen as a flawed democracy where elections are still credible, but there are few checks and balances on its government.

It’s worth noting there are 195 governments in the world – so Putin and Erdogan are far from the only leaders left.

According to the Russian state news agency TASS, Erdogan also explained how important it was to remain close to Russia.

He said: “We want our dialogue to continue. It is important to continue politics.

“For instance, politics ended in Germany when Angela Merkel resigned.”

Merkel served as the chancellor in Germany from 2005 until 2021 when she stepped down.

Bizarrely, Erdogan’s comments come at a time when Putin is providing asylum to Assad in Russia after Moscow propped up his regime for years.

Meanwhile, the Turkish president has conducted several incursions into Syria over the last eight years in a bid to create a buffer zone on the border.

Erdogan has also been accused of aiding the Syrian rebels although Turkish officials have rejected such claims.

Turkey and Russia have also emphasised their close connection in the past, with Erdogan once describing Putin as a “dear friend”.

The Turkish president told CNN last May: “Russia and Turkey need each other in every field possible.

“The West is not leading a very balanced approach – you need a balanced approach toward a country such as Russia.

“We are not at a point where we would impose sanctions on Russia like the West has done.”

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Government Appoints Anti-Corruption Champion For The First Time Since 2022

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The government has just appointed a former Labour MP to be the anti-corruption champion.

Baroness Margaret Hodge, who now sits in the Lords, will fill the position which has been vacant since June 2022.

Her predecessor, John Penrose, resigned over Boris Johnson’s role in the partygate scandal after a series of gatherings in Downing Street were found to have breached Covid lockdown rules.

Hodge “will work with parliament, the private sector and civil society to help drive delivery of the government’s priorities to clamp down on corruption and the organised criminals who benefit from it, helping to deliver safer streets and secure borders”, according to the Foreign Office.

Hodge has spent much of her career in the Commons campaigning against both domestic and international corruption.

News of her appointment comes as part of a new crackdown from foreign secretary David Lammy.

He has just announced up to £36m in support for the National Crime Agency’s international corruption unit over the next five years, and sanctions to hit the illicit gold trade.

Lammy said: “This government will make the UK a hostile environment for the corrupt and their ill-gotten gains as we put national security as a foundation of our Plan for Change and decade of national renewal.”

Hodge said: “After years of campaigning on the issue, I feel privileged and delighted to be able to work as the Government’s champion, combatting corruption and the illicit finance that flows from it, both at home and abroad.

“The time has now come to put an end to dither and delay. We must take determined and effective action and I look forward to playing my part in that work.”

Labour MP Joe Powell, chair of anti-corruption and responsible tax all party parliamentary group, said he “warmly welcomes” Hodge’s appointment today.

He added: “Oligarchs, kleptocrats, and those exploiting tax havens will sleep less easily tonight.

“This role is pivotal in the fight against corruption, and Margaret’s decades of tireless work exposing corruption and dirty money bring immense credibility to this effort.”

Neither Liz Truss nor Rishi Sunak appointed a new figure to replace Penrose after his dramatic resignation as the anti-corruption tsar more than two years ago.

In a scathing letter to Johnson, Penrose called on the then-PM to quit after the civil service’s partygate probe concluded that “senior leadership” at the top of government was to blame for the scandal.

The-then Tory MP said: “You have breached a fundamental principle of the ministerial code – a clear resigning matter.

“But your letter to your independent adviser on the ministerial code ignores this absolutely central, non-negotiable issue completely.”

He added: “As a result, I’m afraid it wouldn’t be honourable or right for me to remain as your anti-corruption champion after reaching this conclusion, nor for you to remain as prime minister either.”

Johnson resigned the following month.

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Keir Starmer Warned Labour’s Mandate For Change Is Based On A ‘Time Bomb’

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Labour’s majority in parliament is a ticking “time bomb”, according to a brutal new report – and not because a threat from the right.

Keir Starmer’s party may have won by a landslide in July, taking 411 seats while the Tories languish on just 121, but new findings from Labour-linked think tank Compass claims it still offers a weak mandate for change.

After all, it was a shallow victory as Labour actually won just a third of the popular vote, and that poses a major threat further down the line.

On Thursday, pollsters at Find Out Now put Nigel Farage’s populist Reform Party in second place behind the Tories with Labour in third – just five months after voters hit the ballot box.

But, Compass’s new findings, first reported in the Guardian, have found Labour should be more concerned about their lack of voter loyalty – just two in five who backed Labour in July said they would consider themselves to be Labour supporters – than pressure from the right.

That’s because around 48% of Labour’s voters in July said they would be likely to vote Green or Lib Dem in the future, compared to 23% who said they were more likely to go to Reform or the Tories.

Compass’s report Thin Ice claimed: “They won [in Red Wall seats] because they were not the Tories, because Tory voters stayed at home and because Reform split the regressive vote.

“The 2024 general election was a one-off event in which unprecedented Tory ineptitude met almost unparalleled Labour discipline, but without any deep expression of what, if any, change Labour was offering.”

The pollsters said: “The timidity of this strategy, resting on ‘not being the Tories’, is a time bomb.”

Compass’s director Neal Lawson told the Guardian Starmer should look to base a coalition on the progressive majority to bolster support.

Otherwise, he warned, “if Labour fails to deliver in government, its huge but fragile majority will crumble, sending us on a bullet train to the populist right.”

The report comes after a tumultuous first few months in office for Labour, including backlash to cost-cutting policies like changing winter fuel payments for pensions.

Starmer attempted to “relaunch” his government with six new missions last week.

He wanted to turn the focus onto pursuing clean energy, building more homes, recruiting more police officers, putting a greater emphasis on early years education, introducing higher living standards and reducing NHS waiting lists.

But, it looks like it will be a steep hill for Starmer to climb to get back on top, seeing as his net approval ratings are now on -29, according to pollsters at Ipsos.

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UK Welcomes Fall Of ‘Barbaric Regime’ In Syria, Keir Starmer Says

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The UK welcomes the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s “barbaric regime” in Syria, Keir Starmer said.

The prime minister spoke on Sunday, after rebel forces ousted the country’s authoritarian leader by seizing the capital, Damascus.

Starmer also called for civilians to be protected – the UK had been evacuating its own citizens in the days leading up to peak of the rebellion.

According to PA news agency, he said: “The developments in Syria in recent hours and days are unprecedented, and we are speaking to our partners in the region and monitoring the situation closely.

“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure.

“Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored.

“We call on all sides to protect civilians and minorities, and ensure essential aid can reach the most vulnerable in the coming hours and days.”

His remarks echo the comments from deputy prime minister Angela Rayner this morning.

Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, she said: “Well, the situation looks very serious and if the Assad regime has fallen, then I welcome that news.

“But what we need to say is a political resolution in line with the UN resolutions. And we need to see civilians and infrastructure protected.

“Far too many people have lost their lives – we need stability in that region.”

She continued: “If Assad has fallen and that regime is over, I welcome that.

“He wasn’t exactly good to the Syrian people.

“So we want to see a political resolution so that we can get that stability for Syrians and make sure that they have their infrastructure so that they have a political government there that is working in the interest of the Syrian people.”

Assad has fled Damascus but his exact whereabouts remain uncertain.

Some reports suggest he may try to flee to Russia as Vladimir Putin is a key ally and his regime was propped up by the Kremlin until this latest rebellion.

It’s also not clear who will fill the power vacuum now, although one of the leading rebel groups originated in Al-Qaeda.

Starmer is set to travel to the Middle East this week to meet with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, although his trip was planned before Assad’s regime collapsed.

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