Analysis: Rachel Reeves Was In Punchy Form – But War In The Middle East Could Ruin Her Economic Plans

Rachel Reeves looked as though she was enjoying herself as she took aim at Labour’s political opponents while delivering her Spring Statement.

With no new policies to announce, the chancellor decided to use a decent chunk of her time at the despatch box attacking Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Green Party.

“The Tories left our country, our people and our allies exposed: They had no plan and no intention to fund their pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence,” she said.

“Reform would go one step further by ditching our allies and siding with Russia, while the Green Party wants to take us out of Nato and jeopardise our alliances.

“So let me be clear: It is Labour and only Labour that can provide social justice, national security and fiscal responsibility.”

In another section, she dismissed Reform as “a Tory tribute act” following the defections of the likes of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.

“They may have changed the colour of their rosettes, but the British people won’t forget that they are the exact same people that wrecked our public services and wrecked our public finances in the last Tory government,” she said.

“The same people, the same policies and the same disastrous outcomes for working people.”

But behind the political knockabout, the chancellor must know that the fate of the UK economy – and perhaps even the Labour government – depends on the outcome of the latest war in the Middle East.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may have forecast that inflation will come down, but that was before the US and Israel’s bombing of Iran sparked an energy crisis which has seen gas prices soar in the past 48 hours.

If that ends up feeding through into people’s bills, Labour will pay a huge political price.

The same goes for the OBR’s forecasts on economic growth, as well as government borrowing and national debt.

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East, and the accompanying economic turmoil which would ensue, would blow another huge hole in the already-stretched public finances.

With unemployment set to be higher than expected this year and the tax burden set to hit another post-war high, yet more economic uncertainty is the last thing the chancellor needs.

“This government has the right economic plan for our country,” Reeves insisted.

“A plan that is even more important in a world that in the last few days has become yet more uncertain.

“With the unfolding conflict in Iran and the Middle East, it is incumbent on me and on this government to chart a course through that uncertainty, to secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.”

She may have talked a good game, but the chancellor knows that events thousands of miles away have the potential to destroy her economic plans and plunge the government into political crisis they may not recover from.

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Green By-Election Candidate Slaps Down Reform Rival’s Offer For Head-To-Head Debate

The Green Party candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election has rejected her Reform rival’s invitation for a head-to-head debate.

While both parties have described the crunch contest to win another seat in parliament as a case of “Green vs Reform”, Hannah Spencer hit back at Matt Goodwin by pointing out they had already debated in two public forums.

Meanwhile, Labour insisted the Reform move demonstrated they were picking up more support in the traditionally red seat that expected.

It comes as the contest in the Greater Manchester, expected to be a three-horse race between the Greens, Labour and Reform, heats up.

In a post on X, Goodwin wrote: “I am hereby challenging the Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer to a one-on-one debate about the future of Gorton & Denton.”

In his attached letter to Spencer, the GB News preseneter said previous platforms had only offered one-minute answers to multiple candidates, meaning there was “limited room for a serious discussion”.

“As you have said yourself, this by-election is now a two-horse race between Reform and the Green Party,” he said, claiming there had been plenty of “misinformation” about the run-up to polling day.

He offered for it to be hosted by a Green-friendly platform with a moderator of their choosing, with his “only condition” being that it is recorded and published in full afterwards.

But, in a message to HuffPost UK, Spencer hit back: “Hi Matt, we literally just debated in the BBC studio and last week at the Manchester Evening News hustings.

“It’s not a game of the best of three. It sounds like you’re concerned you didn’t come across very well and want another go.

“I’m not sure anyone wants any more of your hot air and I’m focusing my time now on knocking on doors to talk about what really matters to the people of Gorton and Denton.”

Labour told HuffPost UK this race was “Labour versus Reform” last week.

Following on from Goodwin’s offer, a Labour spokesperson said: “This is a cynical move from a campaign that knows its struggling, and that the Labour vote is holding.

“While Matthew and Hannah play student politics, Labour’s Angeliki Stogia is busy, out on the doors, listening to what matters to the people of Gorton and Denton.”

Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell also responded to Goodwin’s letter, saying: “Funny. Matt knows what we know – he’s not doing as well as he’d hoped so is trying to big up the Greens (again) as his only route to victory is to split and suppress the Labour vote (which he knows is holding).

“That, or he’s frit after Angeliki slayed him at the hustings.”

An almighty row broke out at the Manchester Evening News’ debate last week when Stogia told Goodwin that “women are scared to leave the house” due to the rise in far-right rhetoric.

He replied: “I’m not going to be lectured to by a Labour politician from a party that consistently failed to investigate the mass rape and sexual abuse of working-class kids in this country for 30 years.

“And the reason I have security is because I have very real threats to my life in an area where people assure me everything is fine, and clearly in some parts of this country integration is not working as it should be.”

These spats come after Labour have mocked the Greens for misspelling “Gorton” on some campaign posters, while Rayner previously joked Reform could not find the constituency “on a map”.

There are 11 candidates standing in the by-election in total, including Charlotte Anne Cadden for the Conservatives and Jackie Pearcey for the Liberal Democrats.

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Odds Slashed On Greens By-Election Victory After Big Money Bets

Bookies have slashed the odds on the Green Party winning the Gorton and Denton by-election after a flurry of big-money bets.

HuffPost UK has been told that £90,000 was wagered on the party’s candidate, Hannah Spencer, winning the crunch contest on February 26.

In response, Ladbrokes have installed the Greens as heavy odds-on favourites at 1/3, with Reform UK next on 3/1 and Labour the rank outsiders at 10/1.

In a post on X, the bookmakers said it had been “a volatile day in the betting markets for Gorton and Denton”.

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It’s been a volatile day in the betting markets for Gorton & Denton

Here’s how we bet currently:

🟢Greens – 1/3 (75%)
➡️Reform UK – 3/1 (25%)
🔴Labour – 10/1 (9%)
200/1 bar https://t.co/nakHgF3GMJ

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 12, 2026

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It’s been a volatile day in the betting markets for Gorton & Denton

Here’s how we bet currently:

🟢Greens – 1/3 (75%)
➡️Reform UK – 3/1 (25%)
🔴Labour – 10/1 (9%)
200/1 bar https://t.co/nakHgF3GMJ

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 12, 2026

A Green Party source told HuffPost UK: “Word on the ground is that Green support is growing and we’re seeing it in our canvassing. So no surprise that people are putting on bets too.

“But we take absolutely nothing for granted. We’re fully focussed on knocking on doors and raising awareness of our incredible candidate, Hannah Spencer.

“Labour’s vote is in freefall and this looks to have worsened further in recent days.”

The by-election was called after the resignation of sitting MP Andrew Gwynne, who retained the seat for Labour in 2024 with a majority of nearly 13,500.

If the party was to lose it, pressure would once again be piled on Keir Starmer, who survived an coup attempt earlier this week when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called on him to resign.

A Labour campaign spokesman said: “Zack Polanski is trying to talk his way into the race, but we’re hearing it on the doors every day – the Greens simply can’t win this by-election. A Labour campaign spokesman said: “Zack Polanski is trying to talk his way into the race, but we’re hearing it on the doors every day – the Greens simply can’t win this by-election.

“Only Labour’s Angeliki Stogia can beat Reform in Gorton and Denton. A vote for anyone else will risk letting in Reform’s Matthew Goodwin and his toxic politics.”

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