As leadership election launches ago, it was pretty inauspicious.
Fewer than a dozen Labour MPs were present as Angela Rayner got to her feet in the basement of a Whitehall pub to make it clear she wants to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.
Addressing the soft-left campaign group Mainstream’s spring reception, the former deputy PM said the government was “running out of time” to deliver the change Labour promised before the election.
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“It needs to be felt, and we have to show that it’s a Labour government that will deliver it,” Rayner declared, before going on to take aim at home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration crackdown.
Plans to double the length of time it takes for migrants – including two million who are already in the UK – to be granted permanent residency are “un-British”, Rayner said.
“That would not just be bad policy, but a breach of trust,” she told those present. “The people already in the system who made a huge investment now fear for their future.
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“We cannot talk about earning a settlement if we keep moving the goalposts because moving the goalposts undermines a sense of fair play.”
Sources close to Rayner have also let it be known that the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs – the main impediment to any leadership bid – will be dealt with in time for the UK-wide elections on May 7.
By happy coincidence, that is when Starmer is expected to face moves to unseat him, assuming the results in Scotland, Wales and England are as catastrophic for the party as the opinion polls suggest.
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Labour MP Karl Turner told HuffPost UK this week: “If we do badly in Scotland, Wales and up and down regions of England the PM will undoubtedly face a challenge.”
Rayner’s blatant manoeuvring has triggered an angry backlash from many Labour figures, not least those who saw her up close when she was the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government.
“She wasn’t up to running her department, never mind the country,” said one former aide. “She couldn’t even get the bins emptied in Birmingham.”
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That is a reference to the long-running strike by refuse workers in England’s second biggest city.
“She used to sit in meetings and ask why the strike was going on, when ending it was literally her job.”
Even if she is cleared by the taxman, the fact that she was forced to resign from government for failing to pay the right amount of stamp duty will continue to haunt her.
A Labour source said: “Making Angie prime minister isn’t going to make things any better for the party because most voters think she doesn’t pay her tax.”
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via Associated Press
One senior party insider said they were baffled that Rayner had chosen to criticise Mahmood’s immigration reforms.
“The public support for what Shabana is doing is enormous, it’s probably the most popular thing the government is doing,” he said.
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“The party will struggle to get a hearing if it suddenly changes its mind on something with such strong public support. There is absolutely no sign out there that the public think this is something that they have to change.
“This is the territory Labour gets itself into all the time – talking to itself rather than to the country at large.”
Writing in The Guardian, Rayner pointed out that centre-left parties in Canada, Australia and Norway “surged back to win again” in the face of challenges from right-wing populists.
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“They showed they would tackle the issues that mattered most to people, and voters decided that a progressive government that puts people first and lowers costs for ordinary people was the better choice,” she wrote.
But one Labour MP said: “Her comparisons to Norway, Australia and Canada undermine her fundamental thesis – that there needs to now be a change because time is of the essence.
“In each country Rayner cites, the governing party bounced back in the final year of the parliamentary term before going on to win.
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“This is a view which seeks to falsely cherry pick countries, ignoring the dramatic fall in support for centre left parties across advanced democracies in Europe – whether it be in France, in Germany or in Italy.”
Another backbencher said: “Where’s Angela’s vision? It’s all very well criticising, but there’s no substance.
“What would she do to tackle the energy crisis, the geopolitical headwinds, or young people not in work, education or training? She’s got nothing to say on any of those things.”
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Although it may still seem unlikely, there is a small but growing body of opinion within Labour that Starmer may still be leader long after May 7.
“At the moment, he’s the least worst option,” a Labour veteran told HuffPost UK.
“A lot of people doubt whether Rayner’s up to it, and there’s a suspicion that Wes [Streeting] is all style and no substance. Andy Burnham can’t even get a seat so he’s out of the equation.
“Out of them all I’d probably favour Shabana, but the immigration stuff puts me off. Sending girls back to Afghanistan is beyond the pale, in my opinion.”
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“There is definitely a world in which Keir is still there at the end of the year,” said a former Labour adviser.
“The right of the party have worked out none of their candidates stand a chance of winning with the members, and the left are getting everything they want from Starmer anyway, so why bother changing it?”
Angela Rayner has fired the starting gun on the race to succeed Starmer. It is yet to be seen whether she will make it to the finishing line.
