Reform And The Greens Aren’t Going Anywhere. Here’s Why Two-Party Politics Isn’t Back

A frisson of excitement ran through Westminster this week.

After two opinion polls put Labour and the Conservatives in first and second place, the inevitable question followed: “Is two-party politics back?”

Just a year ago, the prospect of the next election being a straight shootout between the two traditional parties would have seemed fanciful.

Reform UK were still ahead with every pollster, while the Greens were continuing their resurgence under their new leader, Zack Polanski.

May’s local elections seemed to confirm that a new era of multi-party politics in the UK was here to stay.

Reform gained nearly 1,500 new councillors, while the Greens saw their town hall representation soar by more than 800 seats.

At the same time, Labour – who were still in the doldrums under the leadership of Keir Starmer – lost 1,498 councillors, and the Tories 563.

Since then, however, British politics has once again been turned on its head.

Labour’s decision to dump Keir Starmer and replace him with Andy Burnham has so far been vindicated, with the party enjoying the novelty of being led by someone that voters actually like.

At the same time, Reform have been hit by a series of scandals and controversies which have led to the party’s popularity plummeting.

Nigel Farage still awaits the result of the parliamentary standards commissioner’s investigation into his failure to declare a £5 million gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne.

The Metropolitan Police is also investigating the outcome of an undercover Channel 4 documentary in which senior Reform officials appeared to be willing to break electoral law to get money from a foreign donor.

According to a poll of polls by Election Maps UK, Reform have slumped from 27.5% at the end of May to 22.7% now.

Over the same period, Labour’s own standings have soared from 19.6% to 27.7%. The last time they led Reform by 5 points was at the end of 2024.

The Greens, meanwhile, have fallen from their own peak of nearly 16% in April to just over 9% today, as Polanski’s leadership has faltered and the party has become embroiled in an anti-semitism row after passing a conference motion declaring that Zionism is racism.

As Farage and Polanski’s popularity has waned, Kemi Badenoch’s has continued to rise, and there are now signs that she is finally dragging the battered Tory brand with her.

Can Nigel Farage turn around Reform’s fortunes?
Can Nigel Farage turn around Reform’s fortunes?

via Associated Press

But leading pollsters who spoke to HuffPost UK this week explained why it is too early to write off Reform and the Greens.

Luke Tryl, UK director of More in Common, said: “While the two-party system may not be dead and buried, it certainly remains in a weak state.

“An election held tomorrow would likely still produce the most fragmented results in history, and our latest poll suggests that no party would come close to a majority, and a coalition would be the most likely outcome.

“Trust in mainstream politics remains at a dire low. Unless the two major parties can reassure Britons that they are listening to their concerns, are trying to do something about them, and are actually capable of doing so, this will continue to be the case.”

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said “any talk of a return to two-party politics remains premature”.

“The improvement in the standing of Labour and the Conservatives remains muted, rarely combining for more than 50% of the vote in the latest round of opinion polls,” he said.

“This remains a far cry from recent general elections, especially 2017, where the Conservatives and Labour received a whopping 82% of the overall vote.

“Of course, things can still change very quickly in British politics so only a fool would completely rule out a return to two-party politics.

“But if an election were tomorrow, Reform and the Greens would represent significantly greater challenges in constituencies up and down the country for the main two parties than ever before.

“That, coupled with the national strength of the SNP in Scotland and Plaid Cymru in Wales, means that multi-party politics is unlikely to be going anywhere anytime soon.”

Zack Polanski speaks with supporters during the Holborn and St Pancras by-election campaign.
Zack Polanski speaks with supporters during the Holborn and St Pancras by-election campaign.

SOPA Images SOPA Images/LightRocket via Gett

Keiran Pedley of Ipsos UK said “the battle for hearts and minds on the right” was yet to be won by either the Tories or Reform, who remain strong in the north of England and the Midlands.

Farage’s party also has a huge election war chest, thanks to the £72m the party received last month from Christopher Harborne and his fellow crypto bilionaire, Ben Delo.

“As long as Nigel Farage is around it is hard to see them going anywhere and what we don’t know is whether Reform today are at a low ebb that they recover from, or if the Conservative momentum continues,” Pedley said.

With a difficult Budget less than two weeks away, Burnham and Labour’s current popularity may well prove to be short-lived if energy bills soar and the economy takes a turn for the even worse.

Badenoch, meanwhile, still faces an enormous challenge in trying to make the Tories competitive come the next election, give their hammering last time around.

As Pedley pointed out: “We can hardly declare a return to the two party system when five parties are polling in double digits and nationalist parties are in government in Scotland and Wales.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

6 Things We Learned From Andy Burnham’s Big Labour Conference Speech

Labour activists queued for hours to take their seats for Andy Burnham’s first party conference speech as leader.

Some were even left locked outside, such was the demand to see the prime minister in the flesh.

Burnham had promised to be “honest” with voters about the challenges which lie ahead as he sets about changing the country.

Burnham did not disappoint as he set out a raft of policy plans he hopes to will carry Labour to victory at the next election.

The PM said: “You may disagree with some or all of what I’ve said today but I have given you what you often say is missing from politics – honesty, ideas and a clear direction for the country we all love.”

Here, HuffPost UK looks at six things we learned from Burnham’s 70-minute speech.

Tory Triple Lock Axed

The prime minister’s big announcement was a change to the rules on the state pension triple lock from April 2030 to save billions to plough into a new “National Care Service”.

Under plans introduced by David Cameron’s government, the pension currently goes up by whichever is higher out of the rate of inflation, average earnings or 2.5%.

Under Burnham’s reforms, the link to inflation or 2.5% will remain.

But he would only pledge that the pension will “hold its value relative to wages over time”.

No.10 sources later said that meant in some years, the pension would go up by more than inflation and 2.5%.

Burnham said “this change will generate significant savings that we will use to build up our national care service”, although it is still unclear how much that will be.

The new “fully funded” care service, the PM said, would ensure free nursing care for all elderly people in the country once it is up and running.

He said: “This is the deal – a state pension that rises every year, no care charges and a high quality national care service to give peace of mind in later life.

“I am going to go out and argue for that – a good deal for our pensioners and for older people in the 21st century.”

Water In Public Hands

Mr Burnham vowed to strengthen public control of the water system with a Bill that will repeal “Margaret Thatcher’s ideological ban on public ownership of water companies”.

He said that will “start a 10-year journey to a very different water system”, giving local leaders new powers to hold water companies to account and closing loopholes used to pay big bonuses.

The Labour leader described the water industry as a “symbol of what has gone wrong with Britain” in which “shareholders never lose and the public never win, from which some have syphoned out easy money while the public picked up the bill for the sewage in our seas”.

Voting Reform

The next Labour election manifesto will contain a pledge to overhaul the electoral system “so everyone’s vote counts and everyone’s voice is heard”, Burnham declared.

He said the first past the post system is no longer fit for purpose as he slammed the “political turbulence” which has seen Britain have seven PMs in 10 years.

Replacing it with a system of proportional representation will be fairer, Burnham insisted.

In a clear reference to Reform UK, he said: “We will all have failed in our public duties if we carry on as we are and open the door of No.10 to a divisive government on 30% of the vote or less.”

Burnham Loves The Union …

In the most emotional part of his speech, the PM mounted a strong defence of the United Kingdom as he paid tribute to his dad Roy, who died earlier this month after a battle with Alzheimer’s Disease.

He said SNP leader John Swinney’s claim that Burnham would be the last prime minister of the UK made him “utterly determined to prove him wrong”.

Fighting back tears, Burnham said: “Whatever its flaws, this country gave my dad a good life. And it has given his sons opportunities he didn’t get for himself.

“He recognised that and was grateful for it and so proud of what Nick, John and I did with them.

“If only, if only, he had been able to appreciate that moment with the family on Downing Street.

“The son of a man who failed the 11-plus becoming prime minister.”

… But Hates Brexit (And Plans To Fix It)

The PM included the vote to leave the European Union among a list of decisions which he said had damaged the country, alongside “deindustrialisation, deregulation, privatisation and austerity”.

Brexit, he said, “hasn’t given us control”, instead “we’ve lost some of the control we had over our economy, as a decade of low growth has put us in a weaker position”.

“Brexit has done more harm than good,” Burnham said.

Later in the speech, the prime minister said he wanted to explore much closer ties with Brussels.

He promised to set out different options for the UK’s relationship with the EU in the future “and I will see if we can find consensus around one which will give us clarity about our position and the future of the continent that we live in”.

Great British Grid

As part of his attempts to bring down the cost of living, the PM said the government will set up a publicly-owned Great British Grid to improve competition in the energy sector, speed up connections for businesses and drive down bills.

Burnham said: “Within 10 years, I want our energy costs to be in line with other nations in Europe. That means we must reform a broken energy market so it serves the public interest.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

Chancellor Reveals ‘Mentor’ Gordon Brown’s Rather Unique Style Of Communicating

Gordon Brown has a very unique way of communicating his thoughts with the new Labour chancellor, according to a new interview.

Brown – Tony Blair’s chancellor and later the prime minister who steered the country through the financial crisis of 2008 – is known for having strong opinions on the way the country should be governed.

And, Speaking to The Sunday Times, the new chancellor John Healey did indeed reveal that the former PM had been in touch.

The cabinet minister said: “I’ve talked to him.

“I’ve had his block cap emails in the middle of the night. But the man is driven and an inspiration to those that he works with.”

Brown was appointed as Special Reviewer on Global Finance and Cooperation under Keir Starmer and has been kept on under Andy Burnham, meaning he continues to be an influential voice for government.

Healey also has a prior working relationship with Brown, having spent five years working as a minister in his Treasury.

He told The Sunday Times he sees Brown as an “inspiration, a mentor”.

He added: “He captured for me the best of a Labour chancellor.”

Healey welcomed the idea of balancing an appreciation that “private investment creates jobs” with a belief the government can help in “partnership” with business.

His praise comes after Opinium polling revealed last week that 56% of Labour supporters think the current government is doing about as well (26%) or better (30%) at running the country than New Labour did.

However, 31% say it is doing much worse.

Labour is heading into its first annual party conference under Burnham’s leadership after Starmer was ousted from office in July.

The new prime minister has secured a real boost in the polls for the party while support for Reform UK has dipped.

However, More in Common think tank believes Labour would still fall short of an absolute majority in a general election.

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

‘Don’t Do It, Andy’: Why Labour MPs Were Begging The PM Not To Call An Early Election

What a difference a year makes.

Labour members will start gathering in Liverpool this weekend for their annual conference with a noticeable spring in their step.

The party now has a confirmed, if slight, lead in the opinion polls as Andy Burnham continues to enjoy a honeymoon period after replacing Keir Starmer as Labour leader and prime minister in July.

His optimistic talk of putting “hope in every heart” appears to have resonated with a beleaguered electorate weighed down by more than a decade of austerity, stagnant economic growth, rising prices and political turmoil.

The so-called “Burnham Bounce” has also coincided with a downturn in the fortunes of Reform UK, whose own poll numbers have fallen since May, when the party enjoyed election success in England, Scotland and Wales.

Investigations into the financial affairs of Nigel Farage and his party have cut through with a public who, just a few months ago, seemed to be preparing to elect a Reform government.

It is all a far cry from 12 months ago, when the Labour conference was a downbeat affair as Starmer’s government lurched from scandal to disaster.

Deputy PM Angela Rayner had been forced to quit just weeks before over her tax affairs, forcing Starmer into a clumsily-handled and deeply unpopular reshuffle.

That was swiftly followed by the sacking of Lord Mandelson as the UK’s ambassador to Washington over his friendship with the convicted paedophile, Jeffrey Epstein.

Ironically, the high point of last year’s conference for Starmer was his success in seeing off Burnham’s own failed attempt to seize the initiative.

The then mayor of Greater Manchester was relentlessly attacked by Starmer loyalists for saying in a pre-conference interview that the UK must “get beyond this thing of being in hock to the bond markets”.

Keir Starmer gives his keynote speech at last year’s Labour Party conference in Liverpool.
Keir Starmer gives his keynote speech at last year’s Labour Party conference in Liverpool.

via Associated Press

Although a chastened Burnham ended up leaving the conference early, just six months later he became MP for Makerfield and the PM-in-waiting.

Now, much of the talk going into this year’s event is not whether Burnham will become prime minister, but whether he would attempt to secure his own five-year mandate from the public by calling an early general election.

The PM sought to kill off the speculation by telling ITV Calendar on Friday that the next election will not be until 2029, the latest it can possibly be.

Nevertheless, that is unlikely to stop some from urging Burnham to go the country either next year or in 2028, should Labour’s poll lead grow.

According to the Telegraph, several of the PM’s No.10 advisers believe he should go to the country in the spring, but that was disputed by others in his inner circle.

“Utter bollocks,” said one senior Downing Street source when asked by HuffPost UK if an early election is on the cards.

“The PM is a man focused and determined to change the country. The only people raising the prospect of an early election are those conducting as a subtle-as-an-elephant Tory whispering campaign.”

Another No.10 source said reports of an early election were “worse than bollocks, it’s embarrassing clickbait”.

Those pushing an early election point to two mega-polls published in recent days which show Labour emerging from an early election as easily the largest party, ahead of the Tories and Reform.

However, in both scenarios, the party would lose its majority, leaving Burnham reliant on the support of the Lib Dems and other left-of-centre parties to get his programme through parliament.

Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta, told HuffPost UK: “Labour going for an early election based on these latest polls means two things: Labour loses hundreds of seats compared to 2024, and it’s an admission from Andy Burnham that he doesn’t think he can further improve Labour’s fortunes.”

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Labour MPs – many of whom have only been in the Commons for a little over two years – are less-than enthusiastic about the prospect of an snap election that would see at least 100 of them lose their seats.

One Cabinet minister said: “If I was Andy, I would be very reluctant to call an election because right now he’s got 400 Labour MPs.

“No matter that happens, if you wake up every morning and you’ve got 400 MPs and a big guaranteed majority, you’re in a good place.

“If you look at the sweep of Labour history being in this position doesn’t happen very often, so I’d be very careful about gambling with that.”

A Labour backbencher was equally clear in his opposition to an election now.

“I don’t want to hear him announce a general election,” the MP said. “I don’t think the country’s ready for it and voters certainly wouldn’t thank us for it.”

Another minister said: “The polls are simply too volatile right now to justify an early election.”

A Labour source added: “I can see why an early election would be tempting when you’re caught up in party conference.

“But the public don’t want one, and voters wouldn’t thank Andy for calling one.”

Burnham is still writing his conference speech, which he will deliver to the party faithful on Tuesday afternoon.

He has been writing it himself “in snatched moments on trains, planes and in his car,” according to one No.10 aide.

The conference slogan is ‘Hope Again’, and the PM plans to deliver a message of optimism to the country, explaining how he plans to get a solve long-standing problems like youth unemployment and the housing crisis.

“People know what the problems are facing the country, but they want to know what the government is going to do about it,” said one Downing Street insider.

“They want to be given hope about the way forward and this is the PM’s opportunity to set that out.”

But a senior Labour figure warned that the real challenges for Burnham will come when the political caravan has packed up for conference season and gone back to Westminster.

“There’s no doubt Andy will have a great conference,” he said. “It’s in Liverpool, it’s his first one as leader and he’ll make a good speech.

“But the real business will happen when he gets back to Westminster the week after. That’s when things will get real for him.

“There’s the Budget next month, defence spending, the growing threat from Russia, and his 10-year plan.

“His diagnosis of the country’s problems has been good, but voters will judge him on how he plans to fix them.

“The danger of conference is that the party gets too high on its own supply. They shouldn’t mistake the conference hall for the country, because there’s a world of a difference between the two.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

Labour’s Huge Commons Majority Would Be Wiped Out In Snap Election

Labour would lose its huge Commons majority if Andy Burnham were to call a snap election, according to new analysis.

A calculation based on the latest opinion polls shows Labour would be by far the largest in the House of Commons with 253 MPs.

But that would be 150 fewer than they have at the moment, and leave the party 73 seats short of an overall majority.

At the moment, Burnham has a working Commons majority of 166.

The forecast, by Election Maps UK, shows Reform UK coming second with 136 seats – 128 more than they have now – if an election were held tomorrow.

The Tories would be third with 101 seats, 17 fewer than they currently have.

The Lib Dems would be unchanged on 72 seats, while the number of SNP would jump from 8 to 43.

Although Burnham does not need to call an election until 2029, speculation continues at Westminster that he could be tempted to do so next spring.

Supporters of the move say he should capitalise on the boost in support Labour has enjoyed since he replaced Keir Starmer as prime minister.

An election victory would also give Burnham his own mandate, and another five years in power.

However, the Election Maps UK analysis suggests he would need to do a deal with another party, most likely the Lib Dems, in order to govern.

Speaking to the BBC in July, he said: “There’s no early general election. I don’t think people want it.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

‘Straight-Up Racism’: Minister Slams Zia Yusuf Over Attack On Labour Council Leader

Zia Yusuf was accused of “straight-up racism” by a Labour cabinet minister over the Reform politician’s criticism of a Somali-born council leader.

Sagal Abdi-Wali is among those in the running to stand for the party in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation as an MP last week.

She is a former child refugee who came to this country 30 years ago.

She became a Labour councillor in 2022, and has been leader of Camden Council in north London since May.

Abdi-Wali is also a close ally to the seat’s last MP, former prime minister Keir Starmer, who resigned last week.

Reform’s home affairs spokesperson Yusuf – whose parents came to the UK from Sri Lanka – hit out at the potential candidate, writing on X: “The front runner being foisted on the people of Holborn by Labour to replace the former Prime Minister Keir Starmer in our Parliament was born in Somalia.

“Do you understand what’s happening?”

When questioned about Yusuf’s post on Sky News’s Sunday Morning programme, business secretary Jonathan Reynolds described it as a “pretty straightforward racism”.

“A potential candidate referenced there, spent decades in this country, huge contribution to her local community so I think that speaks for itself,” he said.

Asked by presenter Jon Sopel if it was “plain racism”, Reynolds said: “Absolutely.”

Reform’s Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick rejected the claims Yusuf’s remarks were racist later on the same programme.

He said: “I don’t know this person, so I’m not here to cast aspersions upon her, but I do want people to sit in our parliament who are entirely committed to our country,

“Maybe she is someone who is entirely patriotic and supportive of this country. I would just say, and this is the point I think Zia was making, that is not everyone sadly in our current House of Commons…

“I want people who are solely interested in putting the interests of our country first.”

He continued: “It’s not about whether she’s from Somalia or the United States or wherever.

“I’m saying that if you weren’t born in this country and you stand for parliament, it’s a legitimate question to ask: Where are your loyalties? Are you going to put the interests of Britain first?

“And you would not believe how much time is wasted in the House of Commons debating things that have nothing to do with this country whatsoever, and how many people stand up and make the case for Pakistan or Gaza as if they were representing those places and not their own constituents, and I want that to end.”

Yusuf’s remarks triggered a huge social media storm last week, with Lib Dem leader Ed Davey calling it “racism, straight out of the Trump playbook”.

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

Andy Burnham Tears Into Kemi Badenoch With Timely Liz Truss Reminder

Andy Burnham hit back at Kemi Badenoch’s criticism over his delayed appearance in front of fellow MPs with a quick reminder of Liz Truss.

The prime minister succeeded Keir Starmer on July 20, just days after Westminster’s scheduled summer recess began.

He therefore did not have to answer any direct questions from his opponents in the House of Commons for the first six weeks for his premiership.

So the Conservatives’ leader Badenoch used her first opportunity on Tuesday to remind MPs how Burnham enjoyed the summer without much scrutiny.

Burnham replied: “The Honorable Lady said the fact that I had been in my position for 43 days.

“Can I turn that round and say that means in six days, this government will have outlived the Truss government? And will be here for a lot, lot longer.”

Truss was forced out of office in October 2022, after just 49 days in Downing Street.

Her own MPs kicked her out following the economic turmoil caused by her disastrous mini-Budget, which contained £45 billion of unfunded tax cuts, sending interest rates and inflation up while the value of the pound went into decline.

Truss’s name is now regularly used as a stick to beat the Conservatives by its opponents.

Burnham also used his time at the despatch box to remind the Leader of the Opposition just how many of her own front bench had been tightly tied to the Truss government.

“I noticed yesterday she appointed a new shadow cabinet,” the prime minister said. “The new shadow chancellor, I welcome him to his position too – I believe the author of the mini-Budget?”

This jibe sparked uproar from across the House, as Burnham added: “I think at least half of the shadow cabinet supported the Liz Truss government.”

Badenoch removed Mel Stride and promoted Andrew Griffith to the top job over the bank holiday.

Griffith robustly defended the mini-Budget during the dying days of Truss’s premiership when he was financial secretary to the Treasury.

He said: “We think they’re the right plans because those plans make our economy competitive.

“What we politicians are responsible for is making the economic decisions that will drive continued growth.”

Truss also welcomed news of Griffith’s promotion on Monday, writing on X: “Congratulations to Andrew Griffith on becoming Shadow Chancellor.

“The economic establishment of the last three decades has failed Britain. They must be taken on.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

Reform UK Slump To Third Place Behind Labour And Tories As Farage Returns To Commons

Reform UK have slumped to third place behind Labour and the Tories in the latest blow for Nigel Farage, according to the new poll.

The survey, by the More in Common think-tank, puts Labour in the lead on 26%, three points ahead of the Conservatives, with Reform a point behind on 22%.

It is Reform’s lowest vote share since January 2025, and the first time they have been behind the Tories in 18 months.

The poll also puts Restore Britain, the right-wing party led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, is on 4%.

The findings were released as Farage was sworn in again as MP for Clacton following his by-election victory over Count Binface last month.

They pile further pressure on the Reform leader to turn around the party’s fortunes as they prepare to hold their annual conference in Birmingham later this week.

More in Common director Luke Tryl said: “The poll tells us two things: the Conservatives seem to be moving in the right direction, and Reform face a growing threat from both sides, as Restore Britain erode their support on the right, and the Conservatives gain ground on their centre flank.

“Reform is now sitting around 10 points below their peak last autumn.”

Farage has endured a torrid few months after it emerged he had not declared a £5 million gift from a Thailand-based crypto billionaire shortly before he first became Clacton MP at the 2024 general election.

Parliament’s standards commissioner is carrying out an investigation into the row, which could lead to another by-election if Farage is found guilty and suspended from the Commons for more than 10 days.

The Reform leader’s woes have coincided with a steady fall in support for his party.

A senior Tory source said: “It’s still a long way to go, but it’s now clear Reform are going backwards.

“A pointless by-election vs a bin, chronic infighting, and still no answers on the fishy £5m personal donation – Farage is floundering and his party has now slipped to third in the polls.

“It’s surely only a matter of time before Farage decides to throw in the towel.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

How Andy Burnham’s Summer Honeymoon Could Turn Into A Miserable Autumn

For Andy Burnham, it has been the summer of his dreams.

He has finally been able to enjoy the fulfilment of his life’s work, having become Labour leader at the third time of asking – and prime minister – on July 20.

Without the inconvenience of having to answer to parliament, which went into recess the week before, Burnham has largely spent his time making a string of announcements and seemingly endless TikTok videos with well known content creators.

In his first week in No.10 alone, the new PM announced a business rate cut for the hospitality sector, a £2 cap on bus fares and scrapping VAT on electricity bills.

There have also been announcements on reviving “hollowed out High Streets” and a crackdown on “rip off discounts and subscription traps”.

Burnham has also been travelling the length and breadth of the country, meeting voters and hammering home the message, if indeed there was any doubt, that his government will do things differently than Keir Starmer’s.

He even managed to squeeze in a visit to the Hill Dickinson Stadium to watch his beloved Everton record a rare Premier League victory.

If you throw in his comprehensive triumph in the Makerfield by-election on June 18, it is little wonder that Burnham has rarely been seen without a smile on his face over the past three months.

He will be well aware, however, that as sure as summer will shortly make way for autumn, his political honeymoon is also coming to an end.

Alex Newton, deputy director of the More in Common think-tank, said Burnham still faces a huge challenge in winning back the voters Labour have lost since the 2024 general election, especially those who have switched to Reform.

Brits are also evenly split on whether the prime minister attempts so far to tackle the cost of living are simply a publicity stunt or a genuine effort to help them, he said.

“Some 54% weren’t confident he will address the cost of living,” Newton told HuffPost UK. “That kind of pessimism means that if he doesn’t deliver on this, it will hit Labour and his approval ratings.”

The prime minister is faced with a lengthy list of other issues, each with the potential to throw his new government off track.

Here, HuffPost UK looks at the various challenges facing the PM as MPs return to Westminster on Tuesday.

Early Release Row

On day one, justice secretary Alex Norris will set out how he plans to exempt two of the killers of PC Andrew Harper from the government’s highly controversial early release scheme.

Norris was given that particular hospital pass by Burnham following a huge public backlash to the prospect of Jessie Cole and Albert Blowers walking free after just six years behind bars.

But even if, as expected, Norris does manage to tweak the policy to keep the two men in prison, the sight of other dangerous criminals getting out early will undoubtedly damage the PM’s standing with the public.

Stopping The Boats

The sight of 230 migrants crossing the English Channel on a single boat became one of the defining images of the summer.

Although Home Office statistics showed that the overall number of asylum seekers arriving in the UK is down by 23% compared to a year ago, a YouGov poll showed the public believes the total has actually gone up.

Burnham’s acknowledged the importance of solving the problem by visiting Dover at the start of August, when he vowed to be “relentless” in his attempts to stop the boats.

But it is a problem which has confounded several prime ministers. If Burnham fails as well, Nigel Farage is waiting in the wings to replace him in No.10.

Defending The Realm

If the first priority of government is to keep its citizens safe, then providing the necessary funds for the military should be its number one priority.

Keir Starmer left behind a £5 billion black hole in the government’s Defence Investment Plan (DIP), which John Healey needs to fill when he delivers his first Budget as chancellor in October.

That is the same John Healey who resigned as Starmer’s defence secretary over the then PM’s failure to commit to spending 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) on the military by 2030.

Despite that, Healey has so far refused to commit to coming up with the cash himself, despite now being in charge of the nation’s purse strings, an apparent U-turn dismissed as “unforgivable” by the Tories.

With the geopolitical situation now more uncertain than at any time since the end of the Cold War, Burnham and Healey simply have no other option than to find the money needed to defend the realm.

Foreign Affairs

The fact that Burnham became Labour leader and PM unchallenged, he remains untested in a number of areas – none more so than on foreign affairs.

Although he has said he wants to be more domestically-focused than his predecessor, he can hardly ignore the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, Iran and Gaza, this is a situation which can best be described as sub-optimal.

It was significant that he chose Kyiv for his first foreign trip, a clear sign that Burnham will follow the example of Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Starmer in offering Volodymyr Zelenskyy his steadfast support.

The PM even gave the Ukrainians a British blueprint for developing their own long-range missiles – a move which enraged the Kremlin.

On Gaza, Burnham has criticised Starmer for his response to Israel’s bombing campaign in the wake of the Hamas terror attacks on October 7, 2023.

The PM’s future approach to that conflict will be another defining issue of his premiership, with the potential to blow apart the tentative left-of-centre coalition he has been building.

Dealing With The Donald

As if wars around the world were not enough to contend with, Burnham must also try to maintain a positive relationship with Donald Trump, something Starmer ultimately failed to do.

The early signs have been positive, with the US president describing the prime minister as “terrific” on the basis of one telephone call on Burnham’s first day in the job.

However, this view seems to be based on the assumption that Burnham will satisfy Trump’s desire to see the North Sea opened up to more drilling for oil and gas.

Although he has vowed to be more “pragmatic” on the issue than Starmer, the PM has also insisted he will stand by Labour’s manifesto commitment not to award new drilling licences.

The pair are due to meet at the UN General Assembly in New York next month.

As unpalatable as it may be for a man who once said Trump was not welcome in Manchester, making nice with the president would give Burnham one less headache to contend with.

Labour Pains

September will also see Burnham’s first Labour Party conference as leader, an event which promises to be far more upbeat than a year ago, when it was already apparent that Starmer was not up to the job.

With Labour now topping the polls and imbued with a renewed sense of optimism, the prime minister can expect a hero’s welcome.

It will not all be sweetness and light, however, with left-wing campaign groups determined to pile pressure on Burnham to declare Israel’s actions in Gaza a genocide, and to impose a complete arms embargo on the country.

Doing so would provoke an angry backlash from groups such as Labour Friends of Israel, however, and trigger the kind of party split which the PM is determined to avoid.

Burnham plays the guitar in the mobile recording studio of the military and artistic unit in Kyiv.
Burnham plays the guitar in the mobile recording studio of the military and artistic unit in Kyiv.

via Associated Press

Political consultant Laura Emily Dunn told HuffPost UK: “The return to parliament will be a test of the PM and the government’s prioritisation – which of the hot topic issues will they want to deal with first? Early prisoner release? The The economy? Small boats? The devil will be in the detail.”

Senior Labour figures said Burnham should enjoy the Bank Holiday weekend, as it will only get more difficult from now on.

One told HuffPost UK: “Andy came to office making a lot of big promises, and his summer has gone well.

“But that means the party’s expectations are sky high. How will he manage that through Labour conference, the Budget, a spending review process and weekly PMQs sessions?

“Andy promised all sorts and now they are hinting the Budget will be steady. Basically – the runway on promising all things to all men is getting shorter and shorter.”

The source added: “Apart from ‘vibes’, what’s the difference with what Starmer was doing? That’s not to dismiss vibes – they really matter – but politics always comes back to policy in the end.”

A Labour MP added: “I think his main challenge is all the promises Andy made as mayor of Manchester to the membership will need to be kept.

“Any hint he’s reneging on them will pour rocket fuel on the Greens when they’re on the ropes. He’s also got to navigate a restive Parliamentary Labour Party, with some pissed off Starmer loyalists, and he’s got to start delivering for an impatient electorate.

“Basically, Andy’s September 2026 biggest problem is Andy Burnham from March 2026.”

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button

Can Andy Burnham Really Live Up To His Promise To Ease The Cost Of Living?

Andy Burnham vowed to give Brits “some breathing space” when it comes to the cost of living during his first speech as prime minister.

That was only a month ago – and he has already unveiled a series of policies aimed at making everyday life a little easier for the general public.

But just last week, Burnham also admitted that the changes he made might not be enough.

He told the BBC: “We will do everything that is possible for us to do. But I think everyone knows I am in position with limited room for manoeuvre.”

It was a noteworthy admission considering he has made the cost of living the central mission for his government.

Burnham has implemented a £2 cap on single bus rides, scrapped VAT on household electricity bills and announced a ban on “subscription traps”.

He unveiled a 20% cut to business rates for pubs, social clubs and live music venues from April onwards.

His government have also promised to help the number of unemployed young people as the number of 16 to 24-year-olds not in work surpassed a million this year for the first time in more than a decade.

The incremental changes he has unveiled appear to have had some cut-through, his net favourability rating of +13 is the highest for any prime minster since Boris Johnson at the start of the Covid pandemic, according to YouGov.

Labour has finally started to take the lead in some opinion polls, ending Reform UK’s monopoly over prime position.

But, as Burnham alluded to when speaking to the BBC, there are plenty of obstacles which stop him from being able to make significant changes to the cost of living.

For instance, UK inflation rose to 2.9% in July due to rising energy costs driven by the Iran war.

Britain refused to get directly involved with this conflict but it continues to destabilise global fuel prices and therefore impacts British energy bills.

Though this is out of the government’s control, there’s a risk voters will still end up blaming the government – as they did when the Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a spike in energy prices in 2022.

Energy regulator Ofgem is expecting the price cap for household energy bills in Britain to rise by 4% in October.

Energy bills are forecast to hit a three-year high this winter as well, eclipsing any benefits from Burnham’s VAT cut on electricity bills.

There is a growing body of support for expanding drilling in the North Sea for oil and gas to boost the economy and reduce Britain’s dependence on international energy imports.

However, after a series of record-breaking heatwaves worsened by manmade climate change, it’s unclear if Burnham will risk upsetting environmentalists by extending existing North Sea licences.

The summer heatwaves and the subsequent droughts have rocked the agricultural sector too.

Farmers fear for their yields will be hugely impacted in the months to come – meaning groceries are likely to go up in price.

Dr Liliana Danila, chief economist at the Food & Drink Federation (FDF) said: “Supply chain disruption isn’t going away.

“Alongside geopolitical volatility, extreme weather will continue to put pressure on the price of key ingredients. This makes it increasingly difficult for food manufacturers to shield consumers from price rises and protect their our resilience.”

The Bank of England will decide whether to raise interest rates next month, which could add another layer of pressure to Burnham.

Britain's Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks during a TV interview at The Hub Cafe following a visit to Ilkeston, Derbyshire, England, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026.
Britain’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham speaks during a TV interview at The Hub Cafe following a visit to Ilkeston, Derbyshire, England, Tuesday, Aug. 11, 2026.

via Associated Press

The TUC general secretary, Paul Nowak, said: “With inflation ticking up because of rising energy bills – and no end in sight to Trump’s illegal war in Iran – we are going to have to see more government action to support households in the coming months.”

But where will this money come from? UK debt is nearing £3 trillion, which represents 94.1% of gross domestic product (GDP).

It comes after official figures showed an unexpected hike in government borrowing to £1.8 billion.

Speculation that the government will therefore raise taxes to meet its spending commitments is therefore rising.

All eyes will be on chancellor John Healey when he unveils his Budget on Wednesday, October 28.

The prime minister has tried not to raise the public’s expectations too high when it comes to what he can do to help the cost of living – he wrote on social media this week: “We won’t fix everything overnight.

“But wherever my government can make life a little easier, fairer or more affordable, we will. “

His last two predecessors, Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, tried to adopt a similar message – and neither won any plaudits from the public for doing so.

The question is whether Brits will even feel the changes Burnham intends to make.

“There’s a lot to be said for the politics of trying,” More in Common’s executive director, Luke Tryl, told the Resolution Foundation this week.

“What Burnham has is an opportunity to say to the public that we can’t do everything immediately.

“And I think they understand that international affairs are a big driver of this, but it’s sort of saying, we’ve looked at areas where we can make a difference and we’re doing that.

“It may be that he cannot meet public expectations on this and it goes the other way of other previous prime ministers.

“But I don’t think there’s an option of not being seen to do this.”

Burnham is, of course, still enjoying the honeymoon period. But will he able to live up to his own expectations?

Listen to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Share Button