After a bitter eight week long campaign, the Conservative Party will announce its new leader – who will become prime minister – on Monday.
This is how the next 72 hours are roughly due to play out.
Monday
At 12.30pm the winner of the leadership race will be revealed at an event at the Queen Elizabeth II Conference Centre in Westminster.
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Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will learn who has won – widely expected to be Truss – a few minutes before the result is made public.
The venue, a short walk from parliament and Downing Street, was also where Jeremy Corbyn was announced as Labour leader in 2015.
But the new Tory leader will not take over as prime minister immediately.
Tuesday
This will be Boris Johnson’s last day in office as PM. In the early morning, around 8.30am, he will deliver a farewell speech in Downing Street.
Johnson will then fly from London to Aberdeen and make his way to Balmoral to see the Queen and resign.
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The Queen will then meet with the new Tory leader and appoint them prime minister.
Truss – or Sunak if he pulls off a spectacular upset – will then fly to London and deliver their first speech as PM outside No.10 at about 4pm.
It is then expected the that the new cabinet will be formed over the course of the next few hours.
Wednesday
Parliament returns from its long summer recess this week, which means the new PM will face Labour leader Keir Starmer at PMQs after about only 24-hours in the job.
Cutting VAT by 5% across the board would be a “regressive” move costing tens of billions of pounds, Rishi Sunak’s campaign team has warned.
According to The Sunday Times, Liz Truss is considering slashing VAT as part of an emergency package to help households cope with rising prices if she wins the Tory leadership race.
But Sunak’s campaign said the move would “incredibly regressive” and cost more than £30bn.
Another option reportedly being weighed up by Truss is a cut to income tax, with proposals including increasing the level above which people start paying the levy.
Truss could also raise the tipping point for the higher rate of 40% and cut the basic rate below 20%.
Boris Johnson has said whoever succeeds him in No.10 would announce “another huge package of financial support” amid soaring energy bills.
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The outgoing prime minister has refused to act again himself, deciding the country must wait until a new PM is in office to provide any new help.
The Treasury has said it is making the “necessary preparations” to ensure the next government has options to deliver extra help “as quickly as possible”.
Energy regulator Ofgem warned the government on Friday that it must act urgently to “match the scale of the crisis we have before us” as Britain faced the news that the average household’s yearly bill will rise from £1,971 to £3,549.
Sunak has already said he will provide additional support targeted at the most vulnerable.
Truss has promised “decisive action” to deliver “immediate support” if she wins the contest.
But she has so far been vague about what form this assistance might take apart from slashing green levies on energy bills and reversing the controversial National Insurance hike.
In an article for Mail+, Johnson acknowledged that the next few months will be difficult – “perhaps very tough” – as “eye-watering” energy bills take their toll, but he forecast the UK will emerge “stronger and more prosperous (on) the other side”.
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He said “colossal sums of taxpayers’ money” have already been committed to assisting people with their bills.
But he added: “Next month – whoever takes over from me – the government will announce another huge package of financial support.”
There are just two weeks left in the race to be the next Conservative Party leader – and the next prime minister.
Liz Truss, the current foreign secretary, is the frontrunner to replace Boris Johnson, but former chancellor Rishi Sunak remains optimistic that he might have a chance of securing that seat in No.10.
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Either way, the country will have a new leader by September 6.
As the Tories remain the party with the majority of seats in the House of Commons and this is not a general election, only Conservative Party members get to choose who leads them (and the rest of the UK) until the next election.
Understandably, this has thrown up some questions about this process.
1. What do we really know about Tory Party members?
The Conservative Party will not reveal how many members it has, although the most common estimate is 160,000. A briefing paper from the House of Commons library in 2019 suggests there are 180,000 members – still a tiny fraction of the general population.
According to news outlet Tortoise, the party’s headquarters will not give away details of their membership for “GDPR reasons”, although the news organisation later sent a letter to CCHQ pointing out that knowing the membership make-up was an essential part of the UK democracy.
The news outlet is still waiting for a response from the party about just who is an official member.
2. Are there any restrictions over who can vote?
People cannot vote unless they’ve been a member of the Conservative Party for three months prior to September 2, when the election closes.
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But, foreign nationals can vote if they’re a member. They do not have to have a British citizenship, or any link with the UK, to vote in this race.
Those under 18 who cannot legally vote in a general election are also permitted to cast a vote in the Tory leadership election.
3. How secure are the votes?
Members can vote via post or online, but security worries did actually force the party to drop preliminary plans which would have allowed members to change their cast votes at the start of August.
Now, if a duplicate vote is recorded, the second one will be counted.
The original plan was dropped after the National Cyber Security Centre announced: “As you would expect from the UK’s national cybersecurity authority we provided advice to the Conservative party on security considerations for online leadership voting.”
Lord Cruddas, who led the campaign to put Johnson back on the ballot paper, suggested that hacking fears mean the Conservatives “should reject the resignation of the prime minister and ask him to stay on board whilst the board fixes any cyber issues and the leadership campaign can be revisited”.
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Sky News also revealed at the start of August that the Conservatives were posting out the leadership ballots “a little later than we originally said” because they had to add some extra security measures to the process.
At the moment, voting more than once in the process is also considered an “offence” and anyone found doing so would have their membership withdrawn.
However, according to Tortoise’s reporting, there are few checks that voters are who they say they are.
Rishi Sunak’s latest PR efforts have once again been ripped apart, this time because he has promised to “keep Brexit safe”.
The Tory leadership hopeful is currently behind Liz Truss in the polls among Conservative Party members.
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He has therefore felt the need to bolster his pro-Brexit credentials – despite being a Brexiteer and his opponent originally campaigning for Remain.
On Monday, he released a new campaign video – significantly less slick than his previous PR work – which follows a person around as they dump huge stacks of paper into one small room with a paper sign on the door saying: “Brexit Delivery Department.”
The papers are labelled “EU red tape”, and for half of the one-minute video, the person moving the documents around can be seen gathering all of the documents together (although their face is never shown).
Then, they crack their fingers and start shredding the papers.
It is part of Sunak’s promise to build a new Brexit delivery unit which “in his first 100 days as prime minister” would see him review or repeal post-Brexit EU laws. There are 2,400 at the moment.
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It is worth noting that there is already a Brexit opportunities and government efficiency department, headed up by Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The words “Keep Brexit safe, vote Rishi Sunak today” appear across the screen in the last 10 seconds, as triumphant orchestral music plays.
The video also comes two and a half years after Boris Johnson, the outgoing Tory prime minister, promised that he “got Brexit done” by securing a deal with the EU.
With the cost of living crisis worsening, a second summer heatwave around the corner and increasingly worrying reports emerging about the state of the NHS, Sunak’s new video was not an instant success.
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Here’s how people responded to his efforts:
It has been a long, long six years. I will inevitably have forgotten a lot. But even with those caveats, I still say, with a fairly large amount of confidence, that this is the shittest thing I’ve ever seen. https://t.co/9UMJ3OHy04
It may be a naff, embarrassing video that makes him look half-witted but what he’s doing is declaring that he’s INTENTIONALLY going to make any return to viable trading with the EU -for all export sectors- more difficult, more costly, or impossible. In a recession. #Ready4Ruinhttps://t.co/2uGfQha5Cz
Apparantly it has taken Rishi Sunak and the conservatives six years to realise, that outside the EU the U.K. can actually scrap EU legislation. Maybe they didn´t realise it earlier because somebody had told them, that Brexit was already done 🙂 #Brexit#eudkhttps://t.co/HOl25RkV5C
Rishi Sunak’s latest PR efforts have once again been ripped apart, this time because he has promised to “keep Brexit safe”.
The Tory leadership hopeful is currently behind Liz Truss in the polls among Conservative Party members.
Advertisement
He has therefore felt the need to bolster his pro-Brexit credentials – despite being a Brexiteer and his opponent originally campaigning for Remain.
On Monday, he released a new campaign video – significantly less slick than his previous PR work – which follows a person around as they dump huge stacks of paper into one small room with a paper sign on the door saying: “Brexit Delivery Department.”
The papers are labelled “EU red tape”, and for half of the one-minute video, the person moving the documents around can be seen gathering all of the documents together (although their face is never shown).
Then, they crack their fingers and start shredding the papers.
It is part of Sunak’s promise to build a new Brexit delivery unit which “in his first 100 days as prime minister” would see him review or repeal post-Brexit EU laws. There are 2,400 at the moment.
Advertisement
It is worth noting that there is already a Brexit opportunities and government efficiency department, headed up by Jacob Rees-Mogg.
The words “Keep Brexit safe, vote Rishi Sunak today” appear across the screen in the last 10 seconds, as triumphant orchestral music plays.
The video also comes two and a half years after Boris Johnson, the outgoing Tory prime minister, promised that he “got Brexit done” by securing a deal with the EU.
With the cost of living crisis worsening, a second summer heatwave around the corner and increasingly worrying reports emerging about the state of the NHS, Sunak’s new video was not an instant success.
Advertisement
Here’s how people responded to his efforts:
It has been a long, long six years. I will inevitably have forgotten a lot. But even with those caveats, I still say, with a fairly large amount of confidence, that this is the shittest thing I’ve ever seen. https://t.co/9UMJ3OHy04
It may be a naff, embarrassing video that makes him look half-witted but what he’s doing is declaring that he’s INTENTIONALLY going to make any return to viable trading with the EU -for all export sectors- more difficult, more costly, or impossible. In a recession. #Ready4Ruinhttps://t.co/2uGfQha5Cz
Apparantly it has taken Rishi Sunak and the conservatives six years to realise, that outside the EU the U.K. can actually scrap EU legislation. Maybe they didn´t realise it earlier because somebody had told them, that Brexit was already done 🙂 #Brexit#eudkhttps://t.co/HOl25RkV5C
As Liz Truss’s plan to save £8.8bn by paying civil servants less outside London and the south east provoked a furious Tory backlash, her team pressed the panic button.
In the preamble to the inevitable screeching U-turn, a spokesperson for Truss told journalists: “Over the last few hours there has been a wilful misrepresentation of our campaign.”
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This was, alas, copper-bottomed nonsense.
The press release issued yesterday by the Truss campaign announcing the policy makes it crystal clear that replacing national pay bargaining with “regional pay boards” would mean smaller salaries for those in less-affluent areas.
It said: “This will make it easier to adjust officials’ pay, ensuring it accurately reflects where they work and stops the crowding out of local businesses that can not compete with public sector pay.”
And in case anyone was in any doubt that this new policy would apply to the likes of nurses, teachers and the police as well, the release explained: “This could save up to £8.8 billion per year. This is the potential savings if the system were to be adopted for all public sector workers in the long term.”
Unsurprisingly, this went down badly with Red Wall Tories like Ben Houchen, the party’s mayor in Tees Valley, who said: “There is simply no way you can do this without a massive pay cut for 5.5m people including nurses, police officers and our armed forces outside London.”
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Experiencing the first serious mis-step of her leadership campaign, Truss later recorded a TV clip insisting that while her policy had been “misrepresented”, she was going to abandon it completely.
She said: “I never had any intention of changing the terms and conditions of teachers and nurses.
“But what I want to be clear about is I will not be going ahead with the regional pay boards. That is no longer my policy.”
Rishi Sunak’s campaign, who have been on the back foot throughout the contest, wasted no time in taking advantage of their rival’s humiliation.
Pointing out that Truss had supported regional pay boards four years ago when she was chief secretary to the Treasury (CST), a source on Team Rishi said: “This wasn’t a mistake, Liz wanted this in 2018 as CST. The lady is for turning.”
That last sentence, echoing a famous line in one of Margaret Thatcher’s party conference speeches, was designed to twist the knife.
It’s far too early to say Truss’s mistake means the outcome of the leadership contest is back in the balance. She remains the clear favourite to succeed Boris Johnson.
But she’ll know better than anyone that any further slip-ups could be fatal to her hopes of entering Number 10.
Nadine Dorries is not running to be Tory leader. But her presence on the campaign trail has been arguably more attention-grabbing than either Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak.
The culture secretary and uber Boris Johnson loyalist, who is backing Truss in the race to succeed him, has deployed something of a scorched earth policy when it comes to taking revenge on Sunak.
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Here are some of the highlights of her involvement in race so far.
1. Admits poor Covid planning
In June, Tory MPs triggered a confidence vote in Johnson’s leadership of the party. The PM won, but the writing was on the wall as 41 per cent of the paerliamentary party voted to boot him from office.
Jeremy Hunt, who Johnson beat to the leadership in 2019, revealed he would vote against the PM in the first vote.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
On July 6, cabinet ministers gathered in No.10 to tell Johnson the game was up and he had to resign. Nadhim Zahawi, Grant Shapps, Priti Patel and Brandon Lewis were among the delegation.
The prime minister learned what was waiting while giving evidence to a committee of senior MPs live on TV.
Dorries was also spotted heading into Downing Street. But she told reporters she was “definitely” not there to tell Johnson to quit. Instead she headed in to argue against the delegation’s demands.
3. Gets Zahawi’s job wrong
As cabinet ministers resigned from Johnson’s government, Dorries stood firm. But it took her three attempts to congratulate Nadhim Zahawi who had just been appointed as the new chancellor.
She tweeted support for Zahawi when he was appointed chancellor – but congratulated him on being made health secretary. Praising his ability to “achieve against the odds”, she noted: “He will deliver for health in the same way he delivered for vaccines and education.”
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This message was quickly deleted and replaced. This time, she attached the same photo of Zahawi alongside two photos of Steve Barclay, who really had been appointed as health secretary. This message was then deleted too.
She eventually gave up uploading the photos herself, and instead retweeted the official No.10 account, praising both Barclay and Zahawi for their new appointments.
4. ‘FFS Nadine’
Dorries, who owns £6,000 diamond earrings, launched an attack on Sunak for having expensive shoes and suits compared to Truss’ £4.50 earrings.
.@trussliz will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire Accessories. Meanwhile…
Rishi visits Teeside in Prada shoes worth £450 and sported £3,500 bespoke suit as he prepared for crunch leadership vote. https://t.co/1VO4xLwQ66
Tory colleague Angela Richardson MP respond: “FFS Nadine! Muted.” The row led veterans minister Johnny Mercer, who attends cabinet, to despair that the contest was “embarrassing”.
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5. Tweets stabbing picture
Dorries later said she “may have gone over the top” with the attack on Sunak’s clothes.
Writing in the Mail on Sunday, Dorries described Sunak as an “assassin” for helping to bring down Johnson, and a “dog in the manger” for not supporting the PM enough.
Business minister Greg Hands condemned Dorries’ actions as “distasteful” and “dangerous” in the wake of the killing of Southend West Tory MP Sir David Amess at a constituency surgery in Essex last October.
Labour today said the bitter Tory leadership race was providing them with a “wealth of material” ahead of the next election.
Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, said they would “fulsomely” take advantage of the Tories “trashing their own record”.
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She described both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss as “continuity Johnson” and said she was “happy” to face either at the next general election.
The MP for Birmingham Ladywood said she will be able to tell voters on the doorstep to just listen to the Tories criticising their own record.
In an exclusive interview with HuffPost UK, Mahmood said: “They are giving us a wealth of material, we are obviously using some now and we’ll have plans for more later as the contest progresses and as we gear up for the next general election – whenever that might be.
“We would prefer an earlier election because Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss are proving every day that they are just more of the same.
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“Neither has the answers that the country needs to move forward post-pandemic, neither has the answers on the economy.
“They are just brutally exposing – not just each other – but 12 years of Tory government that has led us to this moment.
“As far as we’re concerned bring on an early general election. As soon as this contest is done they should seek a fresh mandate.”
The vicious battle for No.10 has even prompted Tory grandees to warn the Conservatives they risk being called the “nasty party” again and losing the next election.
“I’ll be able to say to people on the doorstep ‘you don’t have to take my word for it anymore folks just listen to them’. The trashing of their own record, I think that you’d expect us to take advantage of that which we will be doing so fulsomely.”
– Shabana Mahmood
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Earlier in the contest Truss and Sunak pulled out of a Sky News debate amid concerns about the damage they were doing to the party’s reputation, forcing the other candidates to follow suit.
But, despite warnings, the unedifying public slanging match has continued between the final candidates and their campaign teams.
Asked if she thought Tory infighting would help Labour win the next election, Mahmood said: “We’re going to be ready for that election whenever it comes.”
However, she said it was on the Labour Party to persuade the public to switch their votes and that they had to show the public they had “changed” and had the answers on the economy and cost of living crisis.
“The Tories are doing an even better job of trashing their own record than we could do or get a hearing on,” she added.
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“They’re taking primetime broadcast slots to tear lumps out of each other.”
Labour Party deputy leader Angela Rayner, leader Keir Starmer and national campaign coordinator Shabana Mahmood.
JUSTIN TALLIS via Getty Images
Mahmood said the “vicious infighting” brought back memories of some of Labour’s rowing in recent years.
But she added: “The public never appreciates it and they never reward it at the polls either.
“The Labour Party learnt that lesson in the hardest of ways in 2019, we don’t propose to go there again.”
Mahmood said just pointing to the Tories would not be enough and they did not take the electorate for fools: “We know we’ve got to win their trust back.”
She said Labour was earning the right to be heard again, adding: “It’s on us to seal the deal with the electorate.”
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All your bills going up and up and up.
Taxes rising to the highest level in 70 years.
The worst economic crisis for a generation.
Not our words.
The words of those running to be the next Tory leader.
Lord Fowler, who served under Margaret Thatcher and is now a crossbench peer, described Monday night’s BBC debate as “a bad night for the Conservatives”.
He told Times Radio the only people who might have been happy with the outcome would have been the Labour Party, adding: “They’ve got enough clips from that programme to last them through to the next election.”
Yesterday culture secretary Nadine Dorries, who is backing Truss, criticised Sunak for wearing a £3,500 suit and £450 Prada shoes.
Dorries said Truss “will be travelling the country wearing her earrings which cost circa £4.50 from Claire’s Accessories”.
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The comments prompted veterans minister Johnny Mercer to warn that the party was putting success at the next election in jeopardy.
“The puerile nature of this leadership contest is embarrassing,” he said. “Time to raise the standards.”
The Labour party is already weaponising quotes, viral clips and images from the Tory leadership debates on their social media accounts.
They include a “Tory leadership bingo” card that cites “shaking the magic money tree” and “Thatcherite cosplay”.
They also created an advert in which they spliced together clips of Tory leadership candidates tearing strips off of each other over their record in government.
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“All your bills, every week, every month, they’re going up and up and up,” Sunak says in one part of the video.
“Under your plans, we are predicted to have a recession,” Truss tells Sunak in another clip.
Labour leader Keir Starmer even quoted leadership candidates at Boris Johnson during their final prime minister’s questions.
He said: “She [Liz Truss] also said the former chancellor’s 15 tax rises are leading the country into recession and [Penny Mordaunt] was even more scathing.
“She said ‘our public services are in a desperate state, we can’t continue with what we’ve been doing because it clearly isn’t working’.
“Has the prime minister told her who’s been running our public services for the last 12 years?”
Sunak claimed there is “nothing Conservative” about Truss’s approach to cutting taxes and pumping up borrowing, arguing it would give the party “absolutely no chance” of winning the next election.
Foreign secretary Truss, in turn, suggested her rival would lead the country into a recession and criticised him for increasing taxes to the “highest rate in 70 years”.
During the debate a spokesman for Truss told The Times that Sunak was not fit for office, adding: “His aggressive mansplaining and shouty private school behaviour is desperate, unbecoming and is a gift to Labour.”
Liz Truss’s plans to cut taxes immediately if she becomes prime minister are “immoral”, Rishi Sunak has said.
In a major ramping up of his attacks on his Tory leadership rival, the former chancellor said the move would require the government to borrow “tens and tens and tens of billions of pounds”, which would have to be repaid by future generations.
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He also said he was the “underdog” in the contest and said the “forces that be” want Truss to win.
Sunak made his comments while addressing supporters in Grantham, the birthplace of Margaret Thatcher.
Truss has pledged to reverse the rise in national insurance payments and halt the planned increase in corporation tax – policies introduced by Sunak when he was chancellor.
She has insisted that the £30bn cost of the policies can he paid for from the fiscal “headroom” in the economy.
But Sunak said: “I do believe that it is the wrong approach for the government at this moment to be borrowing an extra tens and tens and tens of billions of pounds at a time when inflation is rising to almost double digits and interest rates are already on the rise.”
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He added: “Not only do I think it’s the wrong thing for the economy, I do also believe that it’s immoral because there is nothing noble or good about wracking up bills on the country’s credit card that we then pass on to our children and grandchildren.”
Suggesting that Truss was misleading voters, the former chancellor said: “We can cut more taxes, but only if we defeat the enemy of inflation and that can only happen if we are honest about the ravages it causes.
“We must see the danger in front of us and act – not pretend like it isn’t happening or, more dreadful still, make the situation worse, putting people’s homes and savings at risk.
“I will deliver a lower tax economy, I will deliver tax cuts, but tax cuts you can believe in. I will make that happen.”
The most recent opinion poll of Tory party members – who will decide who succeeds Boris Johnson – suggested Truss is 24 points ahead of her rival.
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Sunak said: “Be in no doubt, I am the underdog. The forces that be want this to be a coronation for the other candidate.”
Responding to his comments, a spokesperson for Truss said: “Liz‘s plans for tax cuts will reward people for their hard work and effort, allowing them to keep more of their hard-earned money.
“You cannot tax your way to growth. We have the highest tax burden since the 1940s and as prime minister Liz will take immediate action to prioritise growth and cut taxes.
“We can’t continue with a business-as-usual approach on the economy that is failing to deliver for the British people.”
Chief secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke, who used to work under Sunak when he was chancellor, also hit out at his former boss, accusing him on Twitter of engaging in “project fear”.
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A lot of project fear-style material on Twitter today. The idea that there isn’t scope for reducing the burden of tax through both a new spending review and by putting our Covid debt on a longer-term footing as it rolls over is transparently false. (1/n)
Grant Shapps has vowed to create a “Tory campaigning university” if he is made prime minister.
The transport secretary has written to Conservative MPs as part of his pitch to replace Boris Johnson.
In his letter, the senior cabinet minister set out his “campaigning promise” to MPs, including the establishment of a Tory “centre of excellence”.
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He added: “A sort of Tory campaigning university, where we can all learn from each other and from the latest developments internationally.
“I will give all colleagues significantly improved access to polling, and to a database of statements, facts and achievements to help you win arguments.”
His campaign has so far centred on promises to help Tory MPs hold on to their seats at the next election.
Shapps has sought to differentiate himself from the other candidates by stressing his experience as a “successful campaigner and organiser”.
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“If you choose me to be your next prime minister, I will not be the sort to just sit behind my desk,” he wrote.
Transport Secretary Grant Shapps.
Leon Neal via Getty Images
His promise includes the creation of a “campaign strike force” that would see polling, media and other experts travelling from seat to seat to devise localised campaigns.
Shapps said MPs would have the “very best resources” with more central funding for local campaigning and access to the latest techniques and technology.
He also vowed to create a larger political operation in No.10 and promised to brief MPs ahead of major announcements.
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Shapps added: “As prime minister I will visit every single seat held by a Conservative MP. We have all experienced how much a ministerial visit can galvanise our local associations and volunteers, as well as local media. I will get out of Whitehall to come and campaign for you.”
Shapps is one of at least 11 MPs who have thrown their hat in the ring to replace Johnson.
The Johnson loyalist set up his stall by vowing to end “tactical government by an often-distracted centre”.
The grammar school educated MP for Welwyn Hatfield suggested his own leadership would bring a return to a more traditionally Conservative approach to state, pledging to curb taxes.
The 53-year-old, who has three children, said tackling the cost-of-living crisis and strengthening the economy to become the biggest in Europe are top of his agenda.