Could Nigel Farage Really Become The Next Prime Minister?

Posted on 13/12/2024 by Boris Clair

Reform UK chairman Zia Yusuf could never be accused of lacking ambition.

“Nigel Farage will be the next prime minister, and will return Britain to greatness,” he told HuffPost UK this week.

He is far from the only one at Westminster who is now considering the prospect of the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader entering 10 Downing Street.

Given Reform currently only have five MPs, it seems like a ridiculously far-fetched idea.

But speak to senior Tory and Labour figures and it is not difficult to detect a note of anxiety in their voices when the discussion inevitably turns to Farage.

“Reform are a threat to both us and Labour,” said one former Tory cabinet minister.

“We’ve got caught in a cycle where the public perceived that we were rubbish, then Labour have come in and been rubbish as well, so a lot of voters just want to blow the whole thing up.

“There is no doubt that in the short term, Reform are in a strong position. If there’s a by-election outwith Lib Dem areas they would probably win it, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win the general election.”

Farage’s party received 4.1 million votes at the last election, around 600,000 more than the Lib Dems.

However, the vagaries of the first past the post system meant the Liberals were rewarded with 72 MPs to Reform’s five.

“It’s very difficult for an insurgent party to go from a handful of seats into government, said Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta.

“In particular for Reform UK, their support base is currently quite evenly spread across the country, meaning they will struggle to break through in anywhere near enough seats to put Nigel Farage into No.10 without a significant increase in their vote share.

“That being said, if any current political leader can bend our electoral system to their will, I’d wager it would be Nigel Farage. I think at the very least it’s likely Farage and Reform UK will play an even more significant role in British politics over the next five years than they have in the last decade.”

A council by-election result on Thursday neatly summed up the current state of play.

In the Blackbrook ward on St Helens Council, from a standing start, Reform UK took the seat from Labour with 41% of the vote. Labour’s share fell by 18%, while the Tories’ was down by 10% on the last time it was contested.

A poll last week also put Reform above Labour for the first time, demonstrating once again that it isn’t just the Conservatives who need to worry about the threat from the party.

One senior Labour insider said: “We have definitely got to take it seriously. The problem is, for many voters, they just associate us with getting rid of winter fuel payments and accepting a load of free suits and glasses.

“We’re still not telling a story about what a Labour government is all about. It’s too technocratic, we need to start speaking the language of ordinary people.”

“All Westminster will be talking about in 2025 is how Farage does in the local elections in May and in any by-elections that might take place,” the source went on.

“It’s going to be the Farage show for the next 12 months, but Labour need to make sure that he isn’t the only show in town.”

Those electoral performances will be boosted by the efforts of Nick Candy, the billionaire property magnate and husband of Holly Valance who was unveiled this week as Reform UK’s new treasurer.

“I will raise more money for Reform than an political party in the UK has ever raised – Nigel Farage is going to be PM,” Candy declared.

Experienced Labour figures admit the threat from Reform is real, and say the party must approach it head-on.

Former frontbencher Jon Ashworth, who lost his seat at the general election and is now chief executive of the Labour Together think-tank, said: “It’s incumbent on all of us to put them under scrutiny.

“What is his policy on the economy? They’re usually in favour of the super rich. How’s that going to improve the cost of living for people in Bolsover?

“What’s his policy on the NHS? In the past he’s spoken about privatising the health service. That’s not going to go down well with the public.”

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s approach is markedly different, however.

In an interview with The Spectator, she said: “We just have to focus on what the Conservatives are about now and not worry about Reform in the immediate term.

“Of course they are a competitor, but right now I am the leader of the Conservative party and that is my focus.”

One Tory MP dismissed Reform completely, describing the party as “a protest vote”.

“People wanted to send the Tories a message,” they said. “Reform have no policies.”

Writing in the New Statesman, former Tory cabinet minister David Gauke also played down the prospects of a Farage premiership.

“There is an opportunity for an insurgent populist party to emerge as a proper parliamentary force at the next election, further fracturing our political system,” he said.

“This in itself is a significant development. But are we on the cusp of a Farage-led government? No, that still appears to be a distant prospect.”

Nevertheless, Zia Yusuf remains a man on a mission.

He told HuffPost UK: “History is being made as the stranglehold the two old parties have had on British politics is breaking for the first time in a century.

“Reform is rapidly professionalising, our membership growth is ballistic and we are preparing to fight elections across the country.”

With the next election potentially still four-and-a-half years away, much can change to alter the current British political landscape.

It is not so long ago that Donald Trump’s political career appeared over and Boris Johnson seemed set for a decade in power.

But it was significant that Farage was recently installed as the favourite with some bookies to be the next PM.

The last 10 years of UK politics have seen some previously-unthinkable changes become reality. It would be unwise to bet against the next decade being equally dramatic.

Is Elon Musk Planning To Make A ‘F*** You Starmer’ $100 Million Donation To Reform UK?

Posted on 01/12/2024 by Boris Clair

Elon Musk is reportedly planning to make a $100 million donation to Reform UK as a “fuck you” to Keir Starmer.

According to the Sunday Times, the tech billionaire could funnel the cash through the British arm of his social media platform X to get round rules banning foreigners from giving money to British parties.

The huge sum – worth around £78 million – would give Nigel Farage’s party a major financial advantage over both Labour and the Tories.

The paper says leading businessmen and Conservative Party officials believe Musk could hand over the cash as a “fuck you Starmer payment” in his ongoing feud with the prime minister.

The war of words began during last summer’s far-right riots, when Musk posted on X that “civil war in inevitable” in the UK.

That prompted the PM’s official spokesman to hit back: “There’s no justification for comments like that and what we’ve seen in this country is organised illegal thuggery which has no place on our streets or online.”

Musk has also criticised the introduction of inheritance tax for agricultural land by Rachel Reeves in the Budget, and last month accused Labour of turning Britain into a “tyrannical police state”.

He has also taken a swipe at Starmer’s approval ratings, which have slumped since Labour’s landslide election victory.

Musk – a close ally of Donald Trump – made clear his support for Reform UK last week after it emerged that former Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns had defected to the party.

When one X user claimed “Reform will win the next election”, Musk replied to the post with just one word: “Yes.”

Asked about the potential Musk donation to Reform UK, Nigel Farage told the Sunday Times: “All I can say is that I’m in touch with him and he is very supportive of my policy positions.

“We both share a friendship with Donald Trump and Trump has said good things about me in front of Musk. We’ve got a good relationship with him.”

Trump’s Team Is ‘Outright Hostile’ Towards UK’s Chagos Islands Deal, Farage Says

Posted on 13/11/2024 by Boris Clair

Nigel Farage has claimed Donald Trump’s incoming administration has “outright hostility” towards the UK’s deal to hand the Chagos Islands over to Mauritius.

Labour arranged to give up sovereignty over the archipelago, which contains a UK-US military base, last month, after holding it for more than 50 years.

It was praised by outgoing US president Joe Biden at the time as a “historic agreement”.

But, according to Reform UK leader and close Trump ally Farage, the next administration has a different take.

In the Commons on Wednesday afternoon, Farage said: “I can assure you, having been in America last week, knowing also the incoming defence secretary [Pete Hegseth] very well, there is outright hostility to this deal.

“Whatever is said about a lease agreement, as we saw with Hong Kong, these agreements can very, very easily be broken.

“Diego Garcia [where the military base is] was described to me by a senior Trump adviser as the most important island on the planet as far as America was concerned.”

Farage claimed: “There is no basis for this agreement to continue what it is, and if you do, you will be at conflict with a country without which we would be defenceless.”

He added that there was “no legal reason” why the UK had to give sovereignty of Chagos to Mauritius, as the International Court of Justice’s ruling – saying the islands should change hands – was only advisory.

The Reform leader also claimed that Chagossian people “do not wish to live under Mauritian rule”.

When the deal was first struck, critics said it was a strategic error because of the islands’ location in the Indian Ocean.

They expressed fears it would put other contested territories like Gibraltar and Falkland Islands under threat.

The Independent also reported on Wednesday that the Trump transition team has requested legal advice from the Pentagon over the agreement.

US government sources allegedly told the newspaper Trump might veto the deal – not to set to take place until after the president-elect’s inauguration – over global security fears.

However, Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty told Farage in the Commons that he “fundamentally disagrees” with his claims about US attitudes to the deal.

He said: “This government inherited a situation where the long-term secure operation of this crucial military base [Diego Garcia] was under threat.

“International courts were reaching judgments. International organisations were taking steps not to undermine Mauritian sovereignty, and this threatened the secure and effective operation of the base.

“And, in the absence of a negotiated solution, a legally binding decision against the UK seemed inevitable. This would have threatened the secure and effective operation of the base and that was not sustainable.”

He added that when the Trump administration have been fully briefed, he was “confident that the details of this arrangement will allay any concerns”.

Nigel Farage’s Latest US Trip To Visit Trump Has Got 1 Word Trending Online

Posted on 05/11/2024 by Boris Clair

🚨 NEW: Donald Trump says Nigel Farage, who is in attendance at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania tonight, was the ‘big winner’ in the UK general election pic.twitter.com/zetYUKtS6N

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) November 4, 2024

Nigel Farage’s latest stateside visit has everyone on social media asking the same question: what is he doing there, and not in his constituency?

The Reform party leader and MP for Clacton is in the US, again, supporting Donald Trump as Americans head to the polls today.

The neck and neck race between the Republican nominee and his Democrat rival, vice-president Kamala Harris, is almost over after a long and turbulent campaign from both sides.

However, Farage is not a US citizen nor is he on Trump’s team (even though he briefly considered supporting it in the summer).

In the end, he actually decided to run as the Reform candidate in Clacton-on-Sea – and won.

That was a major victory for both his party, which only had one Tory defector in parliament during the last term, and for Farage personally, considering his seven previous unsuccessful attempts to get a seat in the Commons.

But the Clacton MP – who initially refused to hold face-to-face surgeries in his constituency, claiming he would be targeted – has just made his third trip to the States in four months.

So, naturally, his critics were quick to call him out.

In fact so many people started to comment on Farage’s trip, they soon got the word “Clacton” trending on X…

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It’s just been announced Nigel Farage is once again in the USA on another jolly. The good people of Clacton however are still waiting for their MP to set up a constituency office, to agree times and places for a surgery or even establish an email address or phone number. pic.twitter.com/W7pb4cfjEQ

— RS Archer (@archer_rs) November 4, 2024

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The good people of Clacton however are still waiting for their MP to set up a constituency office, to agree times and places for a surgery or even establish an email address or phone number. pic.twitter.com/W7pb4cfjEQ— RS Archer (@archer_rs) November 4, 2024\n\n\n","options":{"_hide_media":{"label":"Hide photos, videos, and cards","value":false},"_maxwidth":{"label":"Adjust width","placeholder":"220-550, in px","value":""},"_theme":{"value":"","values":{"dark":"Use dark theme"}}},"provider_name":"Twitter","title":"RS Archer on Twitter / X","type":"rich","url":"https://twitter.com/archer_rs/status/1853469572705239123","version":"1.0"},"flags":[],"enhancements":{},"fullBleed":false,"options":{"theme":"news","device":"desktop","editionInfo":{"id":"uk","name":"U.K.","link":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk","locale":"en_GB"},"originalEdition":"uk","isMapi":false,"isAmp":false,"isVideoEntry":false,"isEntry":true,"isMt":false,"entryId":"672a39e8e4b0ffe83cf1a7a1","entryPermalink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/farages-latest-us-trip-to-visit-trump-has-got-1-word-trending_uk_672a39e8e4b0ffe83cf1a7a1","entryTagsList":"us-news,nigel-farage,reform-uk,clacton","sectionSlug":"politics","deptSlug":null,"sectionRedirectUrl":null,"subcategories":"","isWide":false,"headerOverride":null,"noVideoAds":false,"disableFloat":false,"isNative":false,"commercialVideo":{"provider":"custom","site_and_category":"uk.politics","package":null},"isHighline":false,"vidibleConfigValues":{"cid":"60afc140cf94592c45d7390c","disabledWithMapiEntries":false,"overrides":{"all":"60b8e525cdd90620331baaf4"},"whitelisted":["56c5f12ee4b03a39c93c9439","56c6056ee4b01f2b7e1b5f35","59bfee7f9e451049f87f550b","5acccbaac269d609ef44c529","570278d2e4b070ff77b98217","57027b4be4b070ff77b98d5c","56fe95c4e4b0041c4242016b","570279cfe4b06d08e3629954","5ba9e8821c2e65639162ccf1","5bcd9904821576674bc55ced","5d076ca127f25f504327c72e","5b35266b158f855373e28256","5ebac2e8abddfb04f877dff2","60b8e525cdd90620331baaf4","60b64354b171b7444beaff4d","60d0d8e09340d7032ad0fb1a","60d0d90f9340d7032ad0fbeb","60d0d9949340d7032ad0fed3","60d0d9f99340d7032ad10113","60d0daa69340d7032ad104cf","60d0de02b627221e9d819408"],"playlists":{"default":"57bc306888d2ff1a7f6b5579","news":"56c6dbcee4b04edee8beb49c","politics":"56c6dbcee4b04edee8beb49c","entertainment":"56c6e7f2e4b0983aa64c60fc","tech":"56c6f70ae4b043c5bdcaebf9","parents":"56cc65c2e4b0239099455b42","lifestyle":"56cc66a9e4b01f81ef94e98c"},"playerUpdates":{"56c6056ee4b01f2b7e1b5f35":"60b8e525cdd90620331baaf4","56c5f12ee4b03a39c93c9439":"60d0d8e09340d7032ad0fb1a","59bfee7f9e451049f87f550b":"60d0d90f9340d7032ad0fbeb","5acccbaac269d609ef44c529":"60d0d9949340d7032ad0fed3","5bcd9904821576674bc55ced":"60d0d9f99340d7032ad10113","5d076ca127f25f504327c72e":"60d0daa69340d7032ad104cf","5ebac2e8abddfb04f877dff2":"60d0de02b627221e9d819408"}},"connatixConfigValues":{"defaultPlayer":"8b034f64-513c-4987-b16f-42d6008f7feb","clickToPlayPlayer":"5a777b9b-81fe-41a6-8302-59e9953ee8a2","videoPagePlayer":"19654b65-409c-4b38-90db-80cbdea02cf4"},"topConnatixThumnbailSrc":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAAEAAAABCAQAAAC1HAwCAAAAC0lEQVR42mNkYAAAAAYAAjCB0C8AAAAASUVORK5CYII=","customAmpComponents":[],"ampAssetsUrl":"https://amp.assets.huffpost.com","videoTraits":null,"positionInUnitCounts":{"buzz_head":{"count":0},"buzz_body":{"count":0},"buzz_bottom":{"count":0}},"positionInSubUnitCounts":{"article_body":{"count":13},"blog_summary":{"count":0},"before_you_go_content":{"count":0}},"connatixCountsHelper":{"count":0},"buzzfeedTracking":{"context_page_id":"672a39e8e4b0ffe83cf1a7a1","context_page_type":"buzz","destination":"huffpost","mode":"desktop","page_edition":"en-uk"},"tags":[{"name":"us news","slug":"us-news","links":{"relativeLink":"news/us-news","permalink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/us-news","mobileWebLink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/us-news"},"relegenceSubjectId":981465,"url":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/us-news/"},{"name":"nigel farage","slug":"nigel-farage","links":{"relativeLink":"news/nigel-farage","permalink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/nigel-farage","mobileWebLink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/nigel-farage"},"url":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/nigel-farage/"},{"name":"reform uk","slug":"reform-uk","links":{"relativeLink":"news/reform-uk","permalink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/reform-uk","mobileWebLink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/reform-uk"},"url":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/reform-uk/"},{"name":"Clacton","slug":"clacton","links":{"relativeLink":"news/clacton","permalink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/clacton","mobileWebLink":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/clacton"},"url":"https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/news/clacton/"}],"isLiveblogLive":null,"isLiveblog":false,"cetUnit":"buzz_body","bodyAds":["

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It’s just been announced Nigel Farage is once again in the USA on another jolly. The good people of Clacton however are still waiting for their MP to set up a constituency office, to agree times and places for a surgery or even establish an email address or phone number. pic.twitter.com/W7pb4cfjEQ

— RS Archer (@archer_rs) November 4, 2024

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Nigel, doing his bit for Clacton by hanging out with a group of demented lunatics who from tomorrow will never wield much influence over anything of consequence, ever again. pic.twitter.com/6tY96kPYbu

— Brendan May (@bmay) November 4, 2024

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Nigel, doing his bit for Clacton by hanging out with a group of demented lunatics who from tomorrow will never wield much influence over anything of consequence, ever again. pic.twitter.com/6tY96kPYbu

— Brendan May (@bmay) November 4, 2024

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Farage: apparently too risky to meet constituents but drinking in his local pub and flying to America is completely fine ✅

Anything but actual work

— skye (@skyera1n) November 4, 2024

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Farage: apparently too risky to meet constituents but drinking in his local pub and flying to America is completely fine ✅

Anything but actual work

— skye (@skyera1n) November 4, 2024

It was all so different less than a year ago.

At the Conservative party conference in Manchester last year, Nigel Farage was in attendance, albeit in his capacity as a GB News presenter.

Nevertheless, he looked very much at home as he danced with Priti Patel at a late-night party, the pair of them bellowing out Frank Sinatra’s ‘I Love You, Baby’.

Ten months later, however, the mood has changed. Since then, Farage has made his political comeback as leader of Reform UK, and even managed to become an MP at the eighth attempt.

He heads up a five-strong Reform contingent on the opposition benches, alongside the 121 Tories who survived Labour’s landslide general election victory.

There is a school of thought in some right-wing Tory circles that the party needs to reach an accommodation with Farage – who has spoken of mounting a “takeover” of the Conservatives – in order to take on Keir Starmer.

But this week it became clear that whoever succeeds Rishi Sunak, that will not happen.

Even Farage’s former dance partner Patel, who is never confused for a Tory wet, has made it clear that the former Ukip boss is persona non grata.

An ally said in June: “Priti has dedicated over 20 years to the Conservative Party. No one with such a record would welcome someone to the party who has repeatedly stood against Conservatives.”

James Cleverly – described to HuffPost UK by a source in a rival camp as “underpriced” in the leadership stakes – also made it clear to the Daily T podcast that he saw no place in his party for Farage.

“The difference between Boris [Johnson], for example, and Nigel is Boris has never said that he holds an ambition to destroy the Conservative Party,” the former home secretary said.

“I think that is a very significant difference to my open offer to Conservatives who might want to come back into frontline Conservative politics and someone who’s basically said that he wants to destroy my party.”

Robert Jenrick, seen as Kemi Badenoch’s main challenger to be the standard bearer for the Tory right in the contest, has also ruled out allowing Farage into the party, despite previously saying he was “not opposed” to such a move.

Polling by Savanta and seen by HuffPost UK shows why, for now at least, the leadership hopefuls are right to distance themselves from the Reform UK leader.

Farage’s net favourability rating with the public is a derisory minus 19 – lower than every Tory candidate bar Patel, who languishes on minus 30.

Among Tory voters his rating is zero, while among Lib Dems – millions of whom the Conservatives need to win back in 2029 – it is minus 52.

Chris Hopkins, Savanta’s political research director, said: “Conservative leadership candidates must first endear themselves to the current Conservative voter base which, while considerably smaller in number now than they would’ve expected two years ago, isn’t all that enamoured with Nigel Farage, according to our research.

“Courting Farage, therefore, is counterintuitive for Conservative leadership candidates at the moment, and risks letting a fox into the henhouse for no obvious gain.

“But I also think there has also been a wider acceptance that winning back Reform UK voters is neither particularly easy, nor enough. Even if everyone who voted Reform in 2024 and Conservative in 2019 hadn’t switched, the Conservatives still would’ve got a pasting at the election.

“Any new leader needs to expand the Conservative coalition to include former Lib Dem and Labour voters, and younger voters as well. The best way to do that will be by appearing competent and not in it for themselves – no mean feat from the opposition benches.”

One Tory aide said: “Farage has made it his business to ‘destroy’ the Tory party at every opportunity. Why on earth would you want someone who hates you to join the party in the hope it would succeed?

“You wouldn’t let vegans run the BBQ and hog roast, would you?”

A source on one campaign team told HuffPost UK: “The way to beat Farage is to eat his lunch. We need to come up with a firm, realistic offer to the country on how we will bring down immigration.

“That will push him further to the extremes, which is where he makes mistakes.”

A Reform UK spokesman, however, was sanguine at the Tory opposition to their leader.

He said: “It’s like six lepers telling a healthy man that he cannot join their colony. Why on earth would he want to?”