Done Deal: Despite Labour’s Latest U-Turn, Is The Election Result Already Decided?

Rishi Sunak has apparently decided that the general election will be in October, rather than November.

If so, it will surely be the first recorded example of a man breaking into a jog on his way to the gallows.

After another tumultuous week in Westminster, the fundamentals remain the same – Keir Starmer is heading for Downing Street.

The Labour leader has endured an uncomfortable few days, culminating in yet another U-turn, this time on the party’s previously-flagship policy of spending £28 billion a year on green energy projects.

And yet, all the available evidence suggests that the British public are determined to boot the Tories out and install Starmer as the next prime minister.

Two more polls published yesterday confirmed Labour remains at least 20 points ahead of the Conservatives, while numerous have emphasised voters’ desire for a change of government.

This is thanks in no small part to Sunak’s own troubles, which were once again on full display over the past week.

From cackhandedly agreeing to a £1,000 bet on Rwanda flights with Piers Morgan to making a joke about trans people in the presence of Brianna Ghey’s mother, the PM has merely confirmed what many in his party have already concluded – the guy is a loser.

“It’s like he’s a reverse King Midas – everything he touches turns to shit,” said one colleague.

Another Tory aide told HuffPost UK: “It’s just the dying days now.”

Keiran Pedley of pollsters Ipsos UK said the Tories are “running out of time” to turn things around.

There’s clearly been no sign of a shift in the polls since the New Year, which the Conservatives would have hoped for,” he said.

“Around 7 in 10 voters tell us it’s time for a change at the next election. What they’ve got to do is change people’s minds about it being time for a change, which is not an easy thing to do.”

Pedley added: “The Conservatives will hope that next month’s Budget will be a setpiece moment that can turn things around, but they’ve also got by-elections and the local elections coming up which could make the situation even worse.”

If Labour really is heading inexorably towards victory in the general election, the party’s agonies over dumping the £28 billion green pledge have been instructive on how it might act when it’s in power.

Starmer and shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves put on a united front in parliament on Thursday afternoon as they briefed political journalists on what was, by any measure, a particularly embarrassing and messy climbdown.

It has been obvious for weeks that the policy was heading for the knackers’ yard, and yet Labour’s top two seemed to be at odds over it. While Reeves would not even repeat the figure, Starmer was still mentioning it on Tuesday.

The Labour leader attempted to laugh off any suggestions that the pair were split, insisting Reeves’ only quibble with him was that he talked about football too much.

But his notorious thin skin was in evidence when he was asked by HuffPost UK if the Tories were right to call him “Mr Flip-Flop”.

He said: “This is ridiculous. I came into this place pretty late in life. In the real world, where I worked until I got here, everybody I worked with adjusted their positions when the circumstances changed and that was thought to be plain common sense. In fact, it would be pretty daft if you didn’t.

“This is the only place I’ve ever known where not adjusting your position to circumstances is supposed to be a great virtue. I don’t work in that way.”

One usually-loyal MP observed: “What does he mean by ‘in the real world’? He has no respect for politics or politicians.”

The behind-the-scenes wrangling over the green policy appears to be a symptom of a power struggle involving Morgan McSweeney, Labour’s national campaign director, and Sue Gray, Starmer’s chief of staff.

Matthew Doyle, Labour’s amiable director of communications, has even been caught in the crossfire, with some blaming him for the U-turn.

One frontbencher described it as the “a big boy did it and ran away” school of political accountability.

“There’s some crazy briefing and counter-briefing going around,” said a senior insider. “They’re at war and they’re not even in government yet.

“Keir and Rachel and their people being at odds, and all the sub-plots and dramas, is a massive moment.

“Once you do it the first time, it’s easier to do it again and again. It will have consequences in government.”

At the end of a difficult week, Starmer can console himself with the fact that it appears nothing can be done to knock his journey to No.10 off course.

But he’ll also know that things will only get harder for him once he gets there.

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Labour Has Slashed Its Green Spending Pledge By More Than £100 Billion

Labour has slashed more than £100 billion from its flagship plan to boost spending on green energy projects.

Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves blamed Tory plans to “max out” the government credit card for the embarrassing U-turn.

A ‘Warm Homes Plan’ to insulate 19 million homes in 10 years has been scaled back to 5 million in 5 years as part of the climbdown.

The shadow chancellor announced in 2021 that a Labour government would spend £28 billion a year over the course of the next five-year parliament – a total of £140bn – on projects to tackle climate change.

Reeves watered that down last summer by announcing that the spending target would not be reached until the second half of the parliament.

It has now been confirmed that the £28bn figure has been dropped entirely, and that the party plans to spend £23.7bn over five years instead – which is just £4.7bn a year and a reduction of £116bn from what was originally announced.

Nearly £11bn of that will come from an extension of the windfall tax on oil and gas company profits, with the rest of it being borrowed.

The climbdown follows months of speculation that the £28 billion figure was being ditched, and comes in the face of Tory claims the spending spree would lead to tax rises and send interest rates soaring.

Starmer said the £28bn commitment was being “stood down” because Liz Truss had “crashed the economy”, while Jeremy Hunt plans to spend any spare Treasury cash on tax cuts ahead of the election.

He said: “If the government says ‘we’re going to max out the credit card’, that’s a real problem.

“We’re going to inherit an economy that’s very broken and we have to adjust to the circumstances.”

Despite the scaling back of Labour’s original plans, Starmer insisted the party was still committed to delivering a zero-carbon electricity system by 2030.

A publicly-owned Great British Energy company will also be set up with a start-up fund of £8.3bn.

Meanwhile, a £7.3bn National Wealth Fund – with the private sector providing £3 for every £1 of public cash – will invest in electric vehicle production, clean steel and carbon capture and storage.

However, the scaling back of the party’s original plans have been condemned by some Labour MPs, other political parties and green campaigners.

Mike Childs, head of policy at Friends of the Earth, said: “By seriously watering down its warm homes plan, the Labour Party has turned its back on the people who most urgently need these essential upgrades – the many millions of low-income households suffering from living in poorly insulated homes.”

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Not Easy Being Green: Labour Party Tensions Grow As Election Looms

Rachel Reeves could not have been clearer.

“I can announce today Labour’s climate investment pledge, an additional £28 billion of capital investment in our country’s green transition for each and every year of this decade,” the shadow chancellor told Labour’s annual conference in September 2021.

“I will be a responsible chancellor. I will be Britain’s first green chancellor.”

But that “pledge” has now been watered down and, if the repeated off-the-record briefings are to believed, is on the verge of being ditched altogether.

Throw in Reeves’ surprise announcement this week that an incoming Labour government would not bring back the cap on bankers’ bonuses and it’s understandable why some voters are asking what do Labour stand for.

Not least because it is barely three months since Reeves herself said that the scrapping of the cap “tells you everything you need to know” about the Tories.

Luke Tryl of the More in Common think tank, which regularly tests public opinion through polling and focus groups, told HuffPost UK: “What has cut through with the public is the vacillation on the £28bn policy.

“People say Labour can’t seem to make their minds up – we heard it multiple times last week. No one is worried about the cost of it or the policy itself, they just want Labour to make their minds up about it.”

Labour’s crisis of confidence about one of its flagship policies has coincided with the Tories’ decision to go on the attack, claiming that the opposition’s plan to borrow billions would push up taxes and interest rates.

That in turn has fed into a belief that Labour is afraid to announce anything controversial, just in case it damages the party’s enormous poll lead.

“You can get away with making a thin offer to the electorate, but you can’t get away with offering nothing at all,” said one senior Labour source who said the green investment policy’s £28bn price tag has become “an albatross” around the party’s neck.

Luke Tryl said Labour’s approach is all the more baffling because opinion polls show the country is ready for a change of government.

He said: “The country doesn’t want the status quo. The risk for Labour is that, by being very cautious, voters don’t see them as presenting the change they want.

“Labour will say ‘why blow the lead we’ve got’, but if things do start to pick up for the government, the polls could narrow because voters end up deciding to stick with what they’ve got.

Now is the time for Labour carve out an alternative offer so they can win a mandate to change things in government.”

One former Labour shadow minister said: “The gap between winning an election and governing is growing increasingly wider. Sometimes it seems like our only motive is winning, and the danger is that the public think we’ll say anything because we believe in nothing – on bankers’ bonuses, on making Brexit work, on the £28bn flip-flop.

“The closer we get to an election, the more the voters will look at what we are actually proposing to do in government and how that will impact on them.”

The way the £28bn climbdown has been communicated has also revealed the tensions that remain at the top of the Labour Party.

“Some of our senior politicians and advisers are swanning around town holding court at every corporate cocktail party, when we’ve won nothing yet and are in for a brutally punishing general election campaign.”

HuffPost UK understands that Morgan McSweeney – Keir Starmer’s chief of staff – and veteran MP Pat McFadden, the party’s national campaign chief, are unhappy they are being blamed for killing off the policy, with allies pointing out that the final decision rests with the leader and his shadow chancellor.

And while Reeves repeatedly refused to even say ”£28bn” during an interview with Sky News on Thursday, Starmer was happy to declare: “We will ramp up to that £28bn during the second half of the parliament – subject to our fiscal rules.”

One MP said: “The key question still is: who is in charge? The debacle over the £28bn figure has managed to simultaneously show indecisiveness and inflexibility.”

Others believe that having such a commanding – and widening – poll lead for such a long time has led many in the Labour Party to believe that victory at the general election is inevitable.

A senior Labour insider told HuffPost UK: “There is a difference between confidence and complacency. We came back after Christmas thinking it would be a matter of weeks until an election and all we had to do was show up and prepare for the ticker-tape parade up Downing Street. That has led to a lack of focus and unnecessary mistakes.

“Some of our senior politicians and advisers are swanning around town holding court at every corporate cocktail party, when we’ve won nothing yet and are in for a brutally punishing general election campaign.”

One Starmer ally admitted the party had managed to make its green investment policy “confusing when it’s not actually confusing”.

“What we should have been saying is investing in the economy is the right thing to do, but fiscal responsibility comes first,” he said. ”But the problem is we put a figure on it and we haven’t been quick enough to squash that figure.

“We’ll eventually get to the right position on it, but the process of getting there has been a pain in the arse.”

Left-wing MP Clive Lewis, a member of the Green New Deal Group, called on the party leadership to stand by its pledge.

“Instead of backing down, it is time for Labour to face down the Tories and win the case for public investment in the climate transition – of £28bn and beyond,” he said.

A veteran backbencher said Labour’s recent policy agonies have been a useful reminder that the next election is not in the bag.

He said: “We have to be prepared for one final big plot twist between now and the election.

“The Tories are beaten up and dead on their feet, but if they get a couple of planes to Rwanda, if some of the economic figures point to recovery, if they corner us on tax and spending in March and if they keep landing attacks on Keir, then they still might have a bit of fight left in them as we enter the last round.”

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Labour Says It Won’t Bring Back The Cap On Bankers’ Bonuses – 3 Months After Criticising Sunak For Scrapping It

Labour has said it will not bring back the cap on bankers’ bonuses – just three months after criticising Rishi Sunak for scrapping it.

Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves told the BBC that she wanted to be “a champion of a successful and thriving financial services industry in the UK”.

But her U-turn led to criticism and mockery from Labour’s political opponents.

The bonus cap was initially introduced in 2014 as a way of curbing the excesses of the banking sector in the wake of the 2008 financial crash.

But in October, the Financial Conduct Authority confirmed that it was ending.

Reeves, the shadow chancellor, led the criticism of the move at the time, posting on X (formerly Twitter): “Today – in the midst of their cost of living crisis – the Conservatives are scrapping the cap on bankers’ bonuses. It tells you everything you need to know about this Government.”

Darren Jones, the shadow Treasury secretary, also pointed out that getting rid of the bonus cap was one of Liz Truss’s policies during her seven weeks as PM.

He said: “When Truss says jump, Sunak says how high.

“At a time when families are struggling with the cost of living and mortgages are rising, this decision tells you everything you need to know about the priorities of this out of touch Conservative government.”

But in a dramatic change of heart, Reeves told the BBC that if Labour wins the election, they will not bring back the cap.

She said: “The cap on bankers’ bonuses was bought in in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and that was the right thing to do to rebuild the public finances.

“But that has gone now and we don’t have any intention of bringing that back. And as chancellor of the exchequer, I would want to be a champion of a successful and thriving financial services industry in the UK.”

Christina McAnea, general secretary of Unison, said: “Reckless banker behaviour and sky-high city bonuses helped cause the global financial crisis. Public services and working people are still paying the price for that crash today.

“A Labour government should reinstate the bonus cap scrapped last autumn.”

Stephen Flynn, the SNP’s leader at Westminster, pointed out Reeves’ apparent hypocrisy on X.

David Linden, the SNP social justice spokesman, said: “The UK economy is broken, and Brexit is hammering living standards, but Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is offering no change from broken Brexit Britain.

“By admitting he would slash funding for public services, while helping the super rich, Starmer has shown he has the wrong priorities and is on the side of the wealthy Westminster elite, not ordinary working families.”

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Tories Mocked For ‘Better Call Keir’ Attack On Starmer

The Conservative Party has faced ridicule after likening Keir Starmer to Bob Odenkirk’s character in the hit US TV show Better Call Saul.

Highlighting the Labour leader’s time as a criminal defence barrister is gearing up to be one of the Tory election attack lines in the run-up to this year’s vote.

At prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, Rishi Sunak raised Starmer’s decision to advise the soon-to-be-banned Islamist group Hizb ut-Tahrir during his legal career.

Labour has said Starmer had been asked to give advice to Hizb ut-Tahri in a legal dispute between the group and the German government.

He did not formally represent them, moving on to become director of public prosecutions shortly after, they said.

But the Conservative party later doubled down on the messaging, putting out a message on social media that brought Saul Goodman – the notorious fictional criminal lawyer played by Odenkirk – into play.

It read: “Are you a terrorist in need of legal advice? Better call Keir.”

The post from the Tories on X, formerly Twitter, also said: “When Rishi Sunak sees a group chanting jihad on our streets, he bans them. Keir Starmer invoices them.”

But the attempt to undermine Starmer was soon disparaged – with many pointing out that lawyers may not withhold their services based on a client’s conduct, opinions or beliefs, and that somehow the Tories have even managed to boost Starmer’s image.

And a community note attached to the post added that Starmer “went on to prosecute terrorists with links to Hizb ut-Tahrir as director of public prosecutions”, and continued: “There’s is no evidence he invoiced them. Barristers may not withhold services based on a client’s conduct.”

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Luciana Berger Given Labour Role Five Years After Quitting Party

Luciana Berger has been given a key role by Labour leader Keir Starmer five years after quitting the party.

The former MP will lead a mental health strategic review ahead of the general election later this year.

Berger left Labour over its “culture of bullying, bigotry and harassment” in 2019 and ended up fighting the election that year for the Liberal Demcrats.

She rejoined last year after Starmer personally apologised for the “intimidation, thuggery and racism” she endured when Jeremy Corbyn was leader.

Speaking at the Jewish Labour Movement conference today, Starmer said she will work with shadow health secretary Wes Streeting and shadow mental health minister Abena Oppong-Asare to deliver a long-term cross-government strategy for mental health.

He said: “I am proud to welcome Luciana back. The Labour Party has changed beyond recognition since she was forced out, and we will be a richer party for having her working with us again.

“It will be the mission of my Labour government to make sure fewer lives are lost to suicide, with timely support available to all who need it.

“Luciana is a fierce advocate for mental health and her work will contribute to achieving that mission in government.”

Berger, who was Labour MP for Liverpool Wavertree between 2010 and 2019, said: “With Keir Starmer’s leadership, Labour has turned a significant corner. I am delighted to be back working with my party and helping Labour deliver the change our country really needs.”

was one of seven Labour MPs who quit the party in 2019 to form Change UK in protest at Corbyn’s leadership.

She said at the time: “I cannot remain in a party which I have come to the sickening conclusion is institutionally anti-Semitic.”

She eventually switched to the Lib Dems and stood for the party in Finchley and Golders Green at the 2019 election, but was defeated by the Conservatives’ Mike Freer.

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Exclusive: Rishi Sunak Accused Of ‘Stuffing’ Public Meeting With Tory Members

Senior Tories were among the audience at an event billed as a public Q&A with Rishi Sunak, HuffPost UK has learned.

Councillors and party candidates had prime seats at this morning’s ‘PM Connect’ at Accrington Stanley Football Club’s ground in Lancashire.

Some of them could clearly be seen on the front row of the audience as the PM took questions from those present.

A Labour source said: “Our unelected prime minister first refuses to name the date he’ll hold an election. Now he’s stuffing voter events with his supporters. Rishi Sunak is running scared.

“The Tory record is a crashed economy, which left working people saddled with rocketing mortgages and bills. It’s no wonder he won’t face the electorate.

“No amount of stage management can cover up the public desire for change. It’s the power of the vote that Rishi fears.”

But a Conservative spokesperson said: “Around 200 people attended PM connect in Accrington this morning.

“It is hardly surprising that a small number of elected councillors were in attendance along with local candidates who wanted to see the PM.”

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Most Voters Want A General Election By Next Summer, New Mega-Poll Reveals

Most voters want a general election by next summer – with one in three demanding one as soon as possible.

A new mega-poll also shows that just 17% want to wait until next autumn to give their verdict on Rishi Sunak’s government.

The prime minister confirmed earlier this month that the general election will definitely take place in 2024.

However, it is still unclear whether the PM will opt to go to the country in the spring or wait until the autumn.

The latest the election can possibly be is January, 2025 – an option supported by just 9% of the public.

According to the poll of more than 10,000 by Focaldata for the Best for Britain group, 61% want it to be held by June. Of those, 36% want it to be as soon as possible.

The findings echo a separate poll by the More in Common think-tank, which found that 73% want an election my next May.

The Focaldata poll also found that 38% of voters would consider voting tactically to change the government, with just 13% saying they would do so to keep Sunak in No.10.

Rishi Sunak must decide whether to go to the country in the spring or autumn.
Rishi Sunak must decide whether to go to the country in the spring or autumn.

JACOB KING via Getty Images

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is the most popular choice to be prime minister in 390 of the country’s 650 constituencies, including Sunak’s seat of Richmond.

The poll also showed that three-quarters of Brits believe that Brexit has increased the cost of their weekly shop, while nearly two-thirds think it has stunted the UK’s economic growth.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “The message in our polling from voters is clear – they want an election, they think Brexit has hurt them in their pockets, and they’re prepared to vote tactically for change.

“Labour may be on course for a victory, but under our broken electoral system nothing can be taken for granted.

“With the possibility of Nigel Farage’s party offering a life raft to his vulnerable friends on the Conservative right, tactical voting will be more important than ever.”

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Mark Drakeford Stuns Politics By Quitting As Welsh First Minister

Mark Drakeford is stepping down as the Welsh Labour leader with immediate effect, he has announced.

In a major shock, the veteran Labour politician said his replacement as the country’s first minister will be elected before Easter.

Drakeford, who became first minister exactly five years ago, posted on X (formerly Twitter): “When I stood for election as Leader of Welsh Labour, I said I would stand down during the current Senedd term. That time has now come.

“It has been a great privilege to serve as leader of this party. Together, we have achieved a huge amount over the last five years in some of the toughest times we have known.

“Despite all the chaos in Westminster, the ongoing impact of Brexit, climate change and the pandemic, by working together, we have delivered record results for Welsh Labour in the local government and Senedd elections.

“Our greatest task is still ahead of us – to return a Labour UK Government and start repairing the huge damage which has been inflicted by the Tories over the last 13 years.

“I will work tirelessly to secure that Labour victory and to continue delivering on the promises we made to people all across Wales in 2021 to deliver a stronger, fairer and greener Wales.”

Former Scottish first minister Nicola Sturgeon was among the first to pay tribute to Drakeford.

Writing on X, she said: “He was without doubt one of the most decent, dedicated, principled, and impressive politicians I had the privilege of working with in my time as FM. He will be the hardest of acts to follow.”

Rishi Sunak said he wished Drakefors “all the best as he moves on from his many years of public service”.

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Keir Starmer Faces Left-Wing Backlash After Praising Margaret Thatcher

Keir Starmer is facing a left-wing backlash after he lavished praise on Margaret Thatcher as he attempts to persuade Tory voters to back Labour at the next election.

He said the former prime minister – a hate figure for many – had “sought to drag Britain out of its stupor by setting loose our natural entrepreneurialism” during her 11 years in office.

The Labour leader also said Thatcher, like ex-Labour PMs Tony Blair and Clement Attlee, had brought about “meaningful change” in the UK.

But his comments, in an article for the Sunday Telegraph, received fierce criticism from many of those on the left of British politics.

Andrew Fisher, a former senior adviser to Jeremy Corbyn when he was Labour leader said Thatcher had “set loose unemployment and inequality” in the country.

Former Labour mayor Jamie Driscoll, who left the party after failing to get selected as an election candidate, accused Starmer of “abandoning the Red Wall”.

Left-wing singer Billy Bragg posted on X: “Oh fuck off.”

Labour-supporting Daily Mirror journalist Kevin Maguire said Thatcher had “turbo-charged inequality, created mass unemployment, flogged public assets on the cheap to her mates and tried to crush trade unions”.

Asked about Starmer’s words on Sky News this morning, health secretary Victoria Atkins said: “I think the public will see this for what it is.

“Don’t forget he wasn’t appealing to Margaret Thatcher’s entrepreneurial spirit when he was courting votes from the hard left.

“And I suspect the great lady herself would view a man who is trying to ride on the coattails of her success with the following words: No, no, no.”

Elsewhere in his Sunday Telegraph article, Starmer said he wanted to “extend the hand of friendship to you, no matter where you are or who you have voted for in the past” – a clear pitch to disaffected Tories.

He said: “Across Britain there are people who feel disillusioned, frustrated, angry, worried. Many of them have always voted Conservative but feel that their party has left them. I understand that.

“I saw that with my own party and acted to fix it. But I also understand that many will still be uncertain about Labour. I ask them to take a look at us again.”

The Labour leader also accused the Conservatives of squandering “the possibilities of Brexit”.

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