Jacob Rees-Mogg Has A Plan For A Tory Election Victory – But Not Even Tory HQ Likes It

Jacob Rees-Mogg has a new plan to make sure the Conservatives win the next general election – but it’s not exactly popular.

Speaking on his GB News show last night, the former cabinet minister and current backbencher announced his plan to “reunite the right” with a “big, open, comprehensive offer to those in Reform”.

Yes, that’s Reform UK, a party originally set up by famous Brexit campaigner and ex-UKIP leader Nigel Farage, now run by Richard Tice and Ben Habib.

Reform currently has just one MP, Lee Anderson, who defected from the Tories earlier this year shortly after resigning as the Conservative Party deputy chair.

It’s thought Reform could end up splitting the right-wing vote when the public next hit the ballot box.

So, Rees-Mogg suggested bringing famous right-wing figures back into the Conservative fold.

He said: “With the help of Nigel Farage in a Conservative government, with Boris Johnson probably returning as foreign secretary, as well [as] welcoming the likes of Ben Habib and Richard Tice into the Conservative Party.”

His nod to the former prime minister is no surprise, considering he served in his government.

The MP also claimed in his “Moggologue” that a truly Conservative government would then be able to look at “slashing migration”, “rolling back the disastrous green agenda” and “abolishing the Equality Act”.

He even suggested that if Farage rejoined Reform, the party would shoot up to 16% in the polls, just 5% behind the Tories – so merging the two parties together would take the Conservatives up to Labour’s current polling at just over 40 percentage points.

He said it is by doing so, “winning the next election is well within reach”.

However, the Conservative Campaign Headquarters told POLITICO’s Playbook they were “unequivocally” ruling out this idea.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats called for the Tories to suspend the whip.

The party’s deputy leader, Daisy Cooper, said the Conservatives are “a shambolic mess” with MPs in “open revolt” against Sunak.

“If the Prime Minister had any bottle he would suspend the whip from Rees-Mogg and rule out Nigel Farage being allowed into the Conservative Party,” she said, and called for a general election.

There is no denying that the Conservatives’ electoral chances are currently in dire straits – polling gurus predict there is a 95-99% of a Labour victory – but people could not help but laugh at this idea…

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‘Running Scared’: Rishi Sunak Mocked After He Rules Out General Election On May 2

Rishi Sunak has been accused of “running scared” after he finally ruled out a genera election on May 2.

The prime minister told ITV West Country that voters across the UK will not have to go to the polls “on that day”.

It brings to an end months of speculation and means the election is almost certain to take place in the autumn.

Senior Labour figures, and many Tories, wanted the general election to coincide with the local council polls in England and Wales on May 2.

But Sunak said: “In seven weeks’ time we have local elections, including in Gloucester where I was talking to them today. We have police and crime commissioner elections, we have mayoral elections.

“I’m squarely focused on those because they’re important and there’s not going to be a general election on that day.”

Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said: “It looks like we have confirmation of Sunak running scared of an election in May.

“He knows that voters will not put up with this Conservative government’s failures on the NHS and the cost of living crisis any longer.

“That is why lifelong Conservative voters have switched to the Liberal Democrats in their droves and will vote for a hardworking local champion, rather than another Conservative MP who will take them for granted once again.”

Pat McFadden, Labour’s national campaign co-ordinator, said: “After 14 years of Tory failure, the British public have the right to expect an election to be called by 26 March and held on May 2.

“Until the day to call it has passed, we are prepared for the election to take place on the usual day in the election cycle.

“Rishi Sunak should stop squatting in Downing Street and give the country what it desperately needs – a chance for change with a Labour government. The rime minister needs to finally come clean with the public and name the date of the election now.”

Sunak’s announcement means the election is likely to take place in either October or November, although he could go all the way to January next year.

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Why Labour – And Quite A Few Tories – Still Believe The General Election Will Be On May 2

There is a popular GIF currently doing the rounds in Labour WhatsApp groups.

It shows Justin Timberlake miming for the camera in the video for the NSYNC song It’s Gonna Be Me.

The commonly misheard lyric, however, has been changed to ‘It’s Gonna Be May’ to indicate when they think the general election will be. Yes, that’s what passes for humour in the Westminster village.

Despite all of the apparent evidence that it won’t be, senior Labour figures firmly believe the country will be asked to go to the polls on May 2, coinciding with the local council elections being held on the same day.

With the party miles ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls, it’s easy to see why they want Rishi Sunak to get on with it.

But a surprising number of Tories also think that the PM should name the date for a little over seven weeks’ time.

The doctored Justin Timberlake lyric has become a popular gif in Labour circles.
The doctored Justin Timberlake lyric has become a popular gif in Labour circles.

If he does plump for May 2, the prime minister is going to have to get a move on and announce it.

Parliament would need to be dissolved by midnight on March 26, but time would be needed before then to deal with any outstanding legislation – a process known in the jargon as “wash up”.

One theory doing the rounds is that Sunak will wait until his flagship Safety of Rwanda Bill is passed by the MPs before firing the starting gun on the campaign.

“We’ve been working on the basis he’ll get the lectern out in Downing Street at lunchtime on Saturday, March 23, by which time the Rwanda Bill will be done and so there won’t be much else to wash up,” one senior Labour figure told HuffPost UK.

One Tory MP said he believed the PM would name the date even earlier.

“I’m convinced it’ll be on May 2,” he said. “My guess would be he does prime minister’s questions on the 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

Rumours abound that ministerial diaries have been cleared for April to leave them free to campaign, while the Tory whip – which tells the party’s MPs about upcoming Commons business – only goes up to the 19th of that month.

A Conservative proponent of a May poll told HuffPost UK: “I think we’ve got a few favourable winds at our back right now and Labour are in a bit of a mess, so May is a better option than October.

“It comes down to two questions: do you want the Conservatives or Labour to run the country, and who do you think has the best plan for the future.

The truth of the matter is you’ve seen another tax cut in the Budget, while Labour are coming forward with more spending plans that will mean more taxes.

“We’ll also have got the Rwanda bill through, so that is where our strategic advantage lies – despite what the polls say.”

It is difficult to ignore the polls, however. Ipsos put support for the Conservatives at just 20% last week, while another poll yesterday had the Tories on 18%.

There are some Tories who think things could get even worse as the year goes on.

A former minister said: “The local elections in May will be really bad and cause lots of internal trouble for Rishi, so the way to avoid that is by having a general election on the same day.”

A Tory aide added: “He definitely has to go in May. It will only get worse the longer it limps on.”

Rishi Sunak has a big decision to make.
Rishi Sunak has a big decision to make.

WPA Pool via Getty Images

While Sunak has said his “working assumption” is that the election will take place towards the end of the year, he has also been careful not to rule out a May election, demonstrating that it is still in the mix as a possible date.

Given their healthy poll lead, Labour are understandably keen to get on with it.

“Staff in party HQ are being told every day that May is still alive,” said one Labour insider. “If the Tories don’t go for it, what is the point of them? It’ll just look like they’re sitting there waiting for something to turn up, rather than actually running the country.”

A Labour shadow cabinet member said: “We’ll also have another summer of small boat crossings, which would be a terrible election backdrop given Sunak promised to stop them.

“I just think he will conclude its better politically to go now rather than wait till the autumn.”

One leading pollster warned that going to the country now would be an act of “self-immolation” for the Tories, and that the PM might as well wait until the autumn in the hope that the political outlook is a bit brighter.

But the truth is that Sunak has now entered the zone where there are no good options.

Ripping the plaster off and going for May may be marginally preferable to the slow, lingering political death of an October or November poll.

Either way, a thumping Conservative defeat seems all-but inevitable.

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Tory Chair Reveals His ‘Frustration’ With Party Colleagues Over Conservative In-Fighting

Tory Party chair Richard Holden has made clear his his frustration with his warring Conservative colleagues in a revealing TV interview.

In a moment when the ITV camera crew were filming cutaway shots, Holden was asked how he felt about the other Tory MPs who have called for PM Rishi Sunak to step down or who have called for the party to change direction.

The party chairman said this was “always frustrating”.

“People are always going to have different opinions,” he said. “Usually, it’s best for those opinions to be expressed with other colleagues in the most constructive manner possible, and I’m not sure all colleagues have always done that.”

ITV News’ political correspondent Tom Sheldrick then interrupted Holden to remind him, “your microphone’s on for this”.

Holden went on: “All colleagues want the same outcomes,” referring to migration and economic policies.

“The truth is there will always be slight disagreements about how to get there. It’s always important for all colleagues to remember what unites us, which are those fundamental things.”

Watch the exchange here:

Elsewhere in the interview, Holden – MP for North West Durham – furiously defended his loyalty to the North East region.

But he refused to say why he is not standing in any of the four local constituencies his current seat will be split into after the boundary review.

Sheldrick said: “It’s about you trying to find a safer seat, isn’t it, somewhere else in the country for yourself, rather than being loyal to the North East?”

Holden then energetically jabbed a map of the region and said: “No, I am bloody loyal to the North East, Tom.

“I care about this constituency. I fought for them every day since 2019.

“They’ve never had constituency MP who works harder. I’m up there still, even doing this [party chair] job, every week, working seven days a week, for the people of North West Durham, and I’m going to continue right to the day of the next general election.”

More than 50 Conservative MPs have already announced that they will not be standing at the next general election in a mass exodus.

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Why Has Rishi Sunak Suggested He’s Waiting Until Autumn For A General Election?

British politics is slowly returning after the Christmas break, and speculation is growing over when the eagerly-anticipated general election will take place after comments made by Rishi Sunak.

What did Sunak say?

The prime minister announced on Thursday his “working assumption” was he would delay going to the country until the “second half” of 2024.

His comments suggest the election will be held in either October or November, as had been widely expected. But it comes following speculation Sunak could decide to call the election for May.

While he did not categorically rule out a spring poll, Sunak told broadcasters: “My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year.”

Labour, which have consistently held a 20-point poll lead over the Tories, seized on the remarks as a sign he had “bottled” facing the British public and accused Sunak of “squatting” in Downing Street.

What do we actually know?

In Britain, each electoral term is supposed to last five years. Then prime minister Boris Johnson called the last general election in December 2019, meaning meaning the latest possible date for the country to go to the polls would be January 2025.

But in reality, and ever since the establishment of fixed terms in 2011, the five-year gap between polls is not what happens in practice.

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, a prime minister has the power to call an election earlier than the deadline – all voters would have to wait for is the 25 days between a PM making a “request” to the King to dissolve parliament (and as a constitutional monarch, the King Charles could not reject it) and polling day.

What’s influencing the date?

As it’s in his gift to choose, Sunak is clearly likely to pick a date most favourable to him and his party. And since Labour holds a commanding poll lead, he isn’t going to rush the country to the ballot box when there’s still time to steal a win – however unlikely that currently looks.

His decision could be based on not just whether he can snatch an unlikely victory from the jaws of defeat, but also under the grimest projections if he can reduce the number of seats the Tories lose and prevent a 1997-style Labour landslide (or worse).

So what is affecting that choice?

The next big political fixture is the spring budget, when chancellor Jeremy Hunt could magic up some tax and spending commitments that sit well with the electorate. It was the announcement of the March 6 fiscal event that prompted speculation of an spring budget, and a blitz of crowd-pleasing promises could yet encourage Sunak to go early.

But his words on Tuesday suggest he doesn’t think this will be enough.

Other than pushing taxpayers’ money around, he may be on the lookout for something to materialise, and that could lead the country to waiting until the last minute. Three areas in particular will be on his radar: the economy, immigration and an apparent lack of enthusiasm for the Labour alternative.

A positive story around the economy could be possible if the UK manages to avoid a recession in 2024 as inflation cools to more normal levels. But it may be too late to reverse voter antipathy towards the Tories given how Liz Truss crashed the economy, and high mortgage rates continue to hurt homeowners.

Sunak’s “stop the boats” pledge has been central to his pitch to voters since becoming Tory leader, and any sense that he has been able to curb the number of small boats crossing the English channel may be something he can stitch a better narrative out of.

He may hope to combine an uptick on either or both of these with the argument Keir Starmer isn’t the answer to Britain’s problems – but perhaps even January 2025 isn’t enough time to make this strategy work.

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Most Voters Want A General Election By Next Summer, New Mega-Poll Reveals

Most voters want a general election by next summer – with one in three demanding one as soon as possible.

A new mega-poll also shows that just 17% want to wait until next autumn to give their verdict on Rishi Sunak’s government.

The prime minister confirmed earlier this month that the general election will definitely take place in 2024.

However, it is still unclear whether the PM will opt to go to the country in the spring or wait until the autumn.

The latest the election can possibly be is January, 2025 – an option supported by just 9% of the public.

According to the poll of more than 10,000 by Focaldata for the Best for Britain group, 61% want it to be held by June. Of those, 36% want it to be as soon as possible.

The findings echo a separate poll by the More in Common think-tank, which found that 73% want an election my next May.

The Focaldata poll also found that 38% of voters would consider voting tactically to change the government, with just 13% saying they would do so to keep Sunak in No.10.

Rishi Sunak must decide whether to go to the country in the spring or autumn.
Rishi Sunak must decide whether to go to the country in the spring or autumn.

JACOB KING via Getty Images

Meanwhile, Keir Starmer is the most popular choice to be prime minister in 390 of the country’s 650 constituencies, including Sunak’s seat of Richmond.

The poll also showed that three-quarters of Brits believe that Brexit has increased the cost of their weekly shop, while nearly two-thirds think it has stunted the UK’s economic growth.

Naomi Smith, chief executive of Best for Britain, said: “The message in our polling from voters is clear – they want an election, they think Brexit has hurt them in their pockets, and they’re prepared to vote tactically for change.

“Labour may be on course for a victory, but under our broken electoral system nothing can be taken for granted.

“With the possibility of Nigel Farage’s party offering a life raft to his vulnerable friends on the Conservative right, tactical voting will be more important than ever.”

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How Likely Is A General Election Now?

As the largest party in the Commons, this leader will also become the prime minister – despite not being elected by the general public, but by Tory MPs and the approximately 160,000 Tory members.

Liz Truss will remain in place until her successor is announced, hopefully by Friday, October 28.

But, as the Tories go through yet another change of hands, many are calling for the vote to go back to the public via a general election, while online petitions for the cause are growing.

But just how likely is it that the electorate can go back to the polling stations early?

When would the next election be, without intervention?

Unless an announcement is made, the next general election is not set to happen for a while. That’s because Boris Johnson called the last snap general election in December 2019 and each term is five years’ long.

This is counted from the day the new parliament first met, so parliament would next be automatically dissolved on Tuesday, December 17, 2024.

Twenty-five days of polling would follow, meaning the last possible date for people to hit the ballot boxes would be Tuesday, January 24, 2025.

Elections are typically held on a Thursday so the public can find out who won on the Friday and a cabinet can be appointed over the weekend, but this is not a fixed rule.

Why do people want another general election?

Having another leader of the Conservative party – and potentially a third person standing leading the Tories in one term – is not a constitutional issue, and has happened before.

A prime minister was replaced twice without a general election being called in the 20th Century. Winston Churchill became prime minister after two other PMs resigned – there was no general election for him until 1945, due to the Second World War.

A similar situation occurred between 1900 and 1906.

Gordon Brown also did not call an early election when he took over from Labour PM Tony Blair in 2007, waiting until 2010 to call the public to vote. Theresa May entered Downing Street in 2016, but didn’t call an election until the following year and Johnson waited around six months before he dissolved parliament.

This is because each one of them wanted to shore up their mandate from the public, but were keen to establish themselves in office first.

But now, the leading party have been in power for 12 years and, with another leader entering No.10, many of the public feel disenfranchised.

How do you call a general election?

A prime minister usually has to call an early election.

While the power was handed to the House of Commons between 2011 and 2019, the Tories gave it back to the PM with a new law called the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022.

The prime minister would have to make a “request” to the King to dissolve parliament (and as a constitutional monarch, the King could not reject it) and a polling day would be organised for 25 working days later.

All MPs lose their status once parliament is closed and have to campaign for re-election.

Labour cannot force a general election.

As the main party of the opposition, it can call a no-confidence vote against the government. But, some members of the Conservatives – as the majority party – would then have to vote against their own government, so it’s pretty unlikely to actually happen. The Tories currently have a majority of 71 seats, and probably wouldn’t want to lose it.

The King could technically invite somebody else to form a government, someone who would win a vote of confidence in the Commons. However, that hasn’t happened since King George V asked Ramsay MacDonald to create a government in January 1924, after Stanley Baldwin lost a vote in January 1924.

Who wants an early election?

Many on the opposition benches want to call a general election early, especially as an Opinium poll found voters have swung in the Labour Party’s favour, with a 39-point lead – adding up to a whopping 411 seats.

The Conservatives have dropped to a historic low in the opinion polls with Truss’s favourability dropping to -70 among the public according to YouGov.

The same data company also found that 63% of respondents want an early general election.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said shortly after the resignation of Truss that his party have a manifesto ready “whenever an election is called”.

He said: “This is not just a soap opera at the top of the Tory party – it’s doing huge damage to the reputation of our country.

“We need a general election so the public can have their say on this utter chaos.

“There’s a manifesto that is going to be ready whenever an election is called,”

Lib Dem leader Sir Ed Davey spoke to BBC Breakfast on Friday and said the Conservatives have shown “they’re unfit to govern”, and that “we need to get rid of them”.

“I think the Conservative MPs now need to do their patriotic duty and work with the opposition parties to get that general election so that British people can have their say,” he continued.

SNP leader and Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has also said it was a “democratic imperative” for the next PM to call a general election.

Welsh party, Plaid Cymru, and the Green Party have called for an immediate general election too.

According to YouGov, just 19% of voters would back the Conservatives if a general election was held right now.

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What Is This One Nation Conservatism That Boris Johnson Keeps Banging On About?

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Will Keeping Donald Trump At Arms Length Help Boris Johnson To Victory In The Election?

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