What Will Be In Rishi Sunak’s Brexit Deal And Will MPs Back It?

After months of impasse over the Northern Ireland protocol, Rishi Sunak is finally preparing to present a new deal to parliament that could be the defining moment of his premiership.

The prime minister holding talks with European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen to put the final touches to the new arrangements.

While it is not yet known what is in the deal, there are a number of key issues that Sunak has sought to address — including ticking his “three boxes” of sovereignty for Northern Ireland, safeguarding its place in the Union and easing disruption for people and businesses.

However, while Sunak and the EU may now be on the same page, it is not guaranteed that everyone in the Tory Party, and the Democratic Unionist Party, will be on board.

Here HuffPost UK takes you through what could be in Sunak’s deal and what the key sticking points are.

The protocol is a trading arrangement, negotiated during Brexit talks, that allows goods to be transported across the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland without the need for customs checks.

The deal was aimed at protecting the delicate Good Friday Agreement by avoiding putting up a hard border between NI and the Republic.

However, unionist parties argue that the protocol instead places an effective border in the Irish Sea, undermining Northern Ireland’s place within the UK.

Goods moving from GB to NI currently have to undergo vigorous checks because they may end up in the Republic of Ireland, which remains in the EU’s single market. That has created friction and disruption for businesses which the UK and EU both want to solve.

The protocol is so disliked by the DUP, Northern Ireland’s largest unionist party, that it has refused to take part in the power-sharing government with Sinn Fein at Stormont unless its concerns are resolved.

What are the main the problems with the protocol?

Unionists are concerned about the disruption to trade that has resulted from checks at Northern Ireland’s ports, as well as the fact that the country is being treated differently from the rest of the UK — something they regard as unacceptable.

Alongside that, unionists do not like that Northern Ireland has to follow some EU rules, without having a say on how those rules work. They call this the “democratic deficit”.

A particular gripe for Brexiteers and unionists is the role that the European Court of Justice (ECJ) plays in solving potential disputes in Northern Ireland.

While the protocol has created an economic advantage for Northern Ireland in that it can sell both within the UK internal market and into the EU single market, because it has to follow some EU laws, it also falls under the jurisdiction of the ECJ.

Put simply, the DUP want the ECJ’s influence in Northern Ireland removed entirely.

What changes could there be?

Sunak is understood to have negotiated a new arrangement to avoid customs checks on the vast majority of goods travelling between Britain and Northern Ireland.

The new deal is expected to see the creation of “green” and “red” lanes.

Goods that are only destined for Northern Ireland will enter ports via the green lane and be subject to minimal checks. Those that are due to end up in the Republic of Ireland will go through the red lane and will have to undergo full EU checks.

While Brexiteers and unionists want Northern Ireland to be free from the ECJ, for the EU its role is a red line — if the region is to enjoy the perks of being in the single market then it must abide by the rules like other EU member states.

The compromise that could be achieved is a reduced and minimal role for the ECJ.

Deputy prime minister Dominic Raab said the reduction in trade red tape would lead to a “substantial scaling back” of the role of the ECJ — but he did refuse to rule out the court having a say on future legal cases, which could prove unpalatable to the DUP.

According to the Times, the deal could ensure that Brussels would have to notify Britain if it intends to apply any future regulations to Northern Ireland, which it could raise objections to.

The Speaker of the Northern Ireland Assembly may also be able to delay any potential regulation by having the power to put it to a vote.

The newspaper reports that if there are any disputes over the application of EU law in Northern Ireland, the region’s courts would consider it first and then decide whether to refer the issue to the ECJ.

Will MPs back the deal?

The groups that Sunak needs to woo the hardest include the Brexiteers in the European Research Group (ERG) and the DUP — who want the complete eradication of EU law from Northern Ireland.

ERG chairman Mark Francois yesterday warned that the agreement must mean an end to EU laws being imposed on Northern Ireland and that there simply being “less of a role” for the ECJ was “not good enough”.

The Conservative former minister told Sky News’ Sophy Ridge: “What we want is a situation where EU law is expunged from Northern Ireland, so it is treated on the same basis as England, Scotland and Wales.”

Asked whether he would therefore not back any deal if the ECJ has any role in it, he said: “We have left the European Union. It doesn’t have that role now in England or in Scotland or in Wales.

“So, if we’re going to treat Northern Ireland as an integral part of the United Kingdom, then we have to get rid of the EU law in Northern Ireland. We’ve been absolutely consistent on this.”

The DUP has issued seven tests Sunak must meet if it is to back the deal, including that the people of Northern Ireland are given a say on the laws that affect them, that there are no checks moving between GB and NI and vice versa, and that there must be no border in the Irish Sea.

The DUP has also made it clear that it wants to see the text of the new legal framework — something the prime minister has not yet agreed to.

While Sunak promised that parliament would be allowed to “express its view” on the deal, it is not yet clear whether that will translate into a parliamentary vote.

However, if there is one, Sunak will want to avoid the scenes we saw under Theresa May — where there was deadlock in the Commons Chamber.

Opinion is divided over how important the DUP’s approval is — former Cabinet minister Jacob Rees-Mogg said the scale of any potential revolt against Sunak would “depend on the DUP”.

“If the DUP are against it, I think there will be quite a significant number of Conservatives who are unhappy,” he told GB News.

However, while Sunak will hope to the get the ERG and DUP on board, because Labour has said it will vote with the government in favour of the deal, he may be able to do it without them.

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Rishi Sunak Sparks Anger By ‘Advising’ King Charles To Meet Ursula Von Der Leyen

A furious political row has erupted after Rishi Sunak urged King Charles to meet the president of the European Commission in the middle of crunch Brexit talks.

Buckingham Palace confirmed this morning that the monarch will have an audience with Ursula von der Leyen in Windsor.

The EU chief will be in the Berkshire town for negotiations with the prime minister to put the finishing touches to a new deal on the Northern Ireland Protocol.

In a statement, the palace said: “The king is pleased to meet any world leader if they are visiting Britain and it is the government’s advice that he should do so.”

But the PM’s official spokesperson insisted: “Fundamentally it is a decision for the palace.”

The spokesperson also pointed out that the king had met with other world leaders who have visited the UK recently, including Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

He added: “His view is that it is a matter for the palace to decide and ultimately for the kind to decide if he wants to meet individuals.”

However, former DUP leader Arlene Foster said it was “tone deaf” for for the government to advise the king to meet von der Leyen at such a politically sensitive moment.

Reports first emerged over the weekend that the king and European Commission president could meet up.

At the time, Tory MP Jacob Rees-Mogg said: “If there were a plan to bring the King in before there is domestic political agreement, it would border on constitutional impropriety.”

Shadow Northern Ireland secretary Peter Kyle said: “I do not know how a thought of involving the king could pass somebody’s mind and reach it to their mouth before they realise that this is a very very unwise policy to choose because it has constitutional implications.”

The row comes as Sunak prepares to finally unveil the agreement he has reached with the EU on trade between Britain and Northern Ireland.

He and von der Leyen will hold a press conference this afternoon, before the PM makes a statement to MPs in the House of Commons.

However, it could potentially spark a major Tory split if the DUP say they cannot support the deal.

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Everyone Is Remembering When Gove Vowed There Would Be No Food Shortages After Brexit

A resurfaced clip of Michael Gove promising there would be no fresh food shortages post-Brexit is making the rounds again on Twitter.

As supermarkets Tesco, Aldi, Morrisons and Asda have announced they are limiting customers to buying just three pieces of each item of fruit or vegetables.

Experts now believe shortages of tomatoes, peppers, cucumbers, lettuce, and more might now last until May, while cabinet minister Therese Coffey has urged the public to eat turnips instead.

Supermarkets have pointed out that it is primarily due to the knock-on effects of poor weather in southern Spain and north Africa, where a lot of this produce is grown, but others think Brexit has exacerbated the whole issue.

After all, consumers in Spain and Morocco have posted viral clips on social media showing that these weather conditions are not affecting their own supermarkets.

So some have concluded that the bureaucratic costs associated with exporting products to the UK post-Brexit also mean the UK is at the bottom of the list when it comes to accessing high-demand food.

It’s no surprise that an old clip from Gove, a prominent Brexiteer who has been in the government for the best part of 13 years – and is currently levelling up secretary – has now been making the rounds.

It dates back to September 2019, when he was chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster under Boris Johnson (having just been environment, food and rural affairs secretary under Theresa May).

As part of an interview for his Sunday show, then BBC presenter Andrew Marr asked Gove: “Are you absolutely sure that there will be no fresh food shortages in the UK as a result of no deal?”

“Everyone will have the food you need,” the minister replied confidently.

Marr cut in: ″That’s not the answer I was… I’m saying, ‘Will there be shortages?’ and you’re saying, ‘There will be’.”

Gove said: “There will be no shortages of fresh food.”

However, not everyone agrees that Brexit is the reason for these shortages.

High energy prices have prevented domestic growers and those in the Netherlands from using greenhouses.

Others have pointed to the EU member Ireland’s struggles as it also faces shortages.

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Former Chancellor Philip Hammond Spells It Out: ‘We’ve Got Poorer Because Of Brexit’

Britain has got poorer because of Brexit, former chancellor Philip Hammond has admitted.

The senior Tory said the Covid-19 pandemic and the soaring cost of energy have also contributed to the cost of living crisis.

His comments are significant because the government has repeatedly denied that leaving the European Union has had a negative impact on the economy.

Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Hammond said: “The truth is we’ve got poorer. We’ve got poorer because of Brexit, we’ve got poorer because of Covid, we’ve got poorer because of the changed energy economy in the world, the higher price of the energy we consume.

“And that has to be reflected in reduced living standards and the transmission mechanism for those external shocks into the domestic economy is inflation.”

Hammond – who was chancellor between 2016 and 2019 and an MP for 22 years – backed Remain in the Brexit referendum.

His comments come after the International Monetary Fund forecast last month that the UK economy will perform worse than every other major country in 2023.

Even Russia – hit by swingeing economic sanctions by the global community due to its invasion of Ukraine – will out-perform Britain, the IMF said.

In its latest World Economic Outlook update, which was released on the third anniversary of Brexit, the IMF predicted the UK economy will shrink by 0.6% this year, compared to its October prediction that it would grow by 0.3%.

By contrast, every other country in the G7 group of advanced nations will see their economy grow – with America’s set to expand by 1.4%.

Russia’s economy will grow by 0.3% over the next 12 months, the IMF said.

Among the other G7 nations, the IMF’s 2023 predictions show growth, 0.1% in Germany, 0.7% in France, 0.6% in Italy, 1.8% in Japan and 1.5% in Canada.

China’s economy will grow by 5.2%, the IMF said, with India’s expanding by 6.1%.

Overall, the IMF said the global economy will grow by 2.9%.

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Nick Ferrari Slaps Down Minister For Citing Covid-19 Vaccine As A Brexit ‘Achievement’

Nick Ferrari slapped down a minister today after he cited the Covid-19 vaccine as a Brexit “achievement”.

Transport minister Richard Holden was asked to name the three “best achievements” of Brexit on the third anniversary of the UK’s departure from the European Union.

But when he named the Covid vaccine roll-out as his first example, veteran presenter Ferrari told him that was “not true”.

Holden told LBC: “Well, I’d say from the start the biggest impact we’ve seen over the last couple of years is probably Britain’s ability to fulfil its own vaccine programme…”

Ferrari interrupted: “Well, you will be aware of course the independent website Full Fact say that’s not true. And even the boss of our own MHRA (Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency) Dr June Raine has also said that’s not true. So can we strike that one out?”

Holden conceded that he was “absolutely right” and the country could have done it “within the EU”.

But he added: “I think the pressure, if we’d been in the EU to be part of an EU scheme, would have been quite unbelievable.”

For his second example he cited the UK’s procurement rules and for his third he outlined Solvency II reforms that have enabled Britain’s financial services sector to “remain head and shoulders above the rest of Europe”.

Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has forecast that the UK economy will perform worse than every other major country in 2023 – including Russia.

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‘Lifelong’ Tory Voter Blasts Jacob Rees-Mogg Over Brexit ‘Benefits’ On Question Time

Audience members on the BBC’s flagship politics show have expressed their frustration about the impact of Brexit on their lives – with one suggesting the “oven ready” withdrawal agreement was more like a “frozen turkey taken out five minutes before Christmas day”.

While leaving the EU has fallen down the political agenda, with no major political party arguing for the UK to rejoin even the single market, BBC’s Question Time aired the frustrations of some over the current situation – from trade to travel.

One “lifelong” Tory voter let off steam about the UK’s decision to quit to the bloc having impacted Britain’s wine industry, with former minster and Brexit evangelist Jacob Rees-Mogg taking the flack.

The audience member said: “I’ve spent the last 30 years as a director in the wine industry so I have experienced first-hand just how terrible things have become post-Brexit.

“I find it incredibly disappointing, as a lifelong Conservative voter, to hear Jacob saying all of this stuff.”

He added: “Just from a bureaucracy point of view and the paperwork, I mean everything.

“I’ve been importing and exporting wine for 30 years for a leading wine company and we just see delays, we see paperwork problems, everything has become so much more complicated.

“And the whole point about this being ‘oven ready’, it’s about as oven ready as a frozen turkey taken out five minutes before Christmas day, it really is a joke.”

He added: “I think it’s time someone starts being honest. None of the political parties are actually talking about Brexit and it’s one of the most fundamental problems we’ve got.”

He went on: “I look at the fact that people can tell untruths time and time again and then they are just forgotten, and Brexit was the beginning of all this, and I think as a society it’s incredibly worrying about where this is going to lead to.”

Rees-Mogg, the former business secretary, cited democracy, corruption in Brussels and holidays to Portugal as examples of the benefits of Brexit.

When another audience member criticised the long wait at border control when visiting Spain post-Brexit, Rees-Mogg suggested the British public go “where they are welcome”.

“If the Spanish don’t want British custom there is no need to spend your hard earned money in Spain,” he added, highlighting the virtues of Portugal recognising “having British tourists is a good thing to do”.

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Former Minister Admits UK’s Post-Brexit Trade Deal With Australia Is ‘Not Very Good’

Former environment secretary George Eustice has admitted the UK’s post-Brexit trade deal with Australia is “not very good” in a barely disguised attack on Liz Truss’s time as international trade secretary.

Eustice served in the cabinet under Boris Johnson, but was sent to the backbenches when Truss became prime minister.

Speaking during a general debate on the Australia and New Zealand deals in the Commons, Eustice said he is enjoying “the freedom of the backbenches”, particularly as “I no longer have to put such a positive gloss on what was agreed”.

Eustice blamed Truss, who served as international trade secretary from 2019 until 2021, for setting an arbitrary target.

He warned that “unless we recognise the failures that the Department for International Trade made during the Australia negotiations, we won’t be able to learn the lessons for future negotiations”.

The first step, he said, is “to recognise that the Australia trade deal is not actually a very good deal for the UK”, adding: “It wasn’t for lack of trying on my part.”

Eustice went on: “The UK went into this negotiation holding the strongest hand, holding all of the best cards, but at some point in early summer 2021, the then trade secretary (Truss) took a decision to set an arbitrary target to conclude heads of terms by the time of the G7 summit, and from that moment the UK was on the back foot repeatedly.

“In fact, at one point that then trade secretary asked her opposite number from Australia what he would need in order to be able to conclude an agreement by G7, and of course the Australian negotiator very kindly set out the Australian terms, which then shaped eventually the deal.”

Truss became notorious for the photoshoots during her overseas trips when trying to forge new trading partnerships. Perhaps the most infamous came when she posed with a Union Jack umbrella atop a London-made Brompton bicycle in front of Australia’s iconic Sydney Harbour Bridge. “Get on your bike and look for exports,” Truss tweeted.

Eustice also has called for the resignation of the interim permanent secretary for the Department for International Trade, Crawford Falconer, after telling the Commons he “resented” people who understood technical trade issues better than he did.

The ex-cabinet minister said Falconer’s approach during the negotiations was to “internalise” Australian demands even if they were against UK interests, and that his advice was “invariably to retreat and make fresh concessions”.

Eustice insisted on having always been a “huge fan” of the British civil service, but added: “I do want to make comment about personnel within the Department for International Trade, because Crawford Falconer, who is currently the interim permanent secretary, is not fit for that position, in my experience.

“His approach always was to internalise Australian demands, often when they were against UK interests, his advice was invariably to retreat and make fresh concessions and all the while he resented people who understood technical issues greater than he did.

“He has now done that job for several years. I think it would be a good opportunity for him to move on and to get a different type of negotiator in place, somebody who understands British interests better than I think he’s been able to.”

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UK Economy ‘Permanently Damaged’ By Brexit, Says Ex-Bank of England Official

A former Bank of England policymaker has said that the UK economy has been “permanently damaged” by Brexit, because it reduced the country’s potential output and resulted in reduced investment into UK businesses.

In an interview on Bloomberg TV, Michael Saunders said that Jeremy Hunt’s “austerity budget” this week is a consequence of leaving the EU.

Saunders joined the rate-setting Monetary Policy Committee shortly after the Brexit referendum in 2016, and left the role in August this year.

He said: “The UK economy as a whole has been permanently damaged by Brexit. It’s reduced the economy’s potential output significantly, eroded business investment.

“If we hadn’t had Brexit, we probably wouldn’t be talking about an austerity budget this week. The need for tax rises, spending cuts wouldn’t be there if Brexit hadn’t reduce the economy’s potential output so much.”

On Sunday, Hunt denied that Brexit has made the UK poorer – despite the government’s own Office for Budget Responsibility saying it has.

The chancellor, who campaigned for Remain in the 2016 referendum, insisted the UK can make a “tremendous success” of leaving the EU.

He said it is important to consider the effects of Brexit “in the round”, and that Brexit brings both “costs” and “opportunities”.

The chairman of the OBR, Richard Hughes, last year said that Brexit would reduce the UK’s potential gross domestic product by 4% in the long term.

Saunders, who is now senior economist at Oxford Economics, added some of the ambitions behind Liz Truss’s failed mini-budget were correct in that “raising potential output is the big challenge”, but her “suggested solution to cut taxes and deregulate are wrong”.

He added: “I put the emphasis more on improving trade links with the EU, improving education, training, and also fixing this worrying rise in long-term sickness, which has been reducing the workforce so much.”

Saunders said the economy has faced a “challenging period with the Brexit vote, the depreciation of sterling, a long period of political uncertainty, the pandemic and then renewed political uncertainty”.

Last week, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney doubled down on his claims the move has taken a toll on the pound, suggesting the decision to leave the EU continues to play a part in the UK’s financial woes.

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Jeremy Hunt Denies Brexit Has Made The UK Poorer And People Are Making The Same Point

Jeremy Hunt has denied that Brexit has made the UK poorer – despite the government’s own Office for Budget Responsibility saying it has.

The chancellor – who campaigned for Remain in the 2016 referendum – insisted the UK can make a “tremendous success” of leaving the EU.

He said it is important to consider the effects of Brexit “in the round”, and that Brexit brings both “costs” and “opportunities”.

Hunt told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that he would set out “some of the ways that I think we can make a success of it” in Thursday’s autumn statement.

Asked if he denies Brexit has slowed the UK’s economic growth at home, Hunt said: “What I don’t accept is the premise that Brexit will make us poorer.

“I don’t deny there are costs to a decision like Brexit, but there are also opportunities, and you have to see it in the round.

“Literally within months of formally leaving the EU we had a once-in-a-century pandemic, which has meant the process of outlining what the opportunities are has taken longer, but I think we need to do that now.”

But Twitter users pointed out that the chairman of the OBR, Richard Hughes, last year said that Brexit would reduce the UK’s potential gross domestic product by 4% in the long term.

Last week, former Bank of England governor Mark Carney doubled down on his claims the move has taken a toll on the pound, suggesting the decision to leave the EU continues to play a part in the UK’s financial woes.

Downing Street has suggested Rishi Sunak is no longer dwelling on the “clear decision” made by the British people six years ago.

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Tory Peer Lord Frost Doesn’t Think ‘Anything Has Gone Wrong’ As Pound Touches Record Low

A Conservative peer and former chief Brexit negotiator has said he doesn’t think “anything has gone wrong” after a day of turmoil on the markets which saw the pound briefly slump to an all-time low.

Lord David Frost described the dramatic events since Friday’s mini-budget as “unwarranted” and an “over-reaction” as the Bank of England moved to assure investors it “will not hesitate” to raise interest rates to prop up the value of sterling.

Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s £45 billion package of tax cuts has prompted a run on the currency that has caused wider fears about the state of the economy.

But Lord Frost, speaking on BBC Radio 4’s PM programme as Kwarteng avoided a public statement, appeared relaxed about the pummelling of the pound.

He said: “Well I don’t think anything has gone wrong actually. Liz Truss promised change, a different economic approach to get us back to growth and away from stagnation and that means a number of things have got to happen.

“Yes, rates have got to go up to get inflation under control, we’re going to have to have lower taxes and fiscal support to get people through this period, we’re going to have lots of structural reform as the chancellor said today and we need to hold down spending in the medium term and that’s coming in November.

“So I think what we’ve seen in the last few days is (a) unwarranted and a over-reaction approach to some elements of that, you’ve got to look at the total package which is taking the country on a different direction to get us out of stagnation and get us back to growth.”

Such was the market turmoil on Monday there was growing speculation in financial markets that the Bank would make an emergency interest rate rise after it hiked rates only last week to 2.25% from 1.75%.

Instead, with the pound fragile and bond prices still tumbling, Kwarteng issued a statement just before the British stock market closed to say he would set out medium-term debt-cutting plans on November 23, alongside forecasts from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility of the full scale of government borrowing.

The central bank welcomed “the commitment to sustainable economic growth” from Kwarteng and the independent scrutiny that the OBR growth and borrowing forecasts would bring.

Meanwhile, banks and building societies are withdrawing some of their mortgages from sale.

Three lenders – Halifax, Virgin Money and Skipton Building Society – have so far withdrawn some of their products amid the uncertainty, according to reports.

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