How Are The Parties Really Feeling Ahead Of Thursday’s Elections?

Posted on 05/05/2026 by Boris Clair

This Thursday will present the largest test of the Labour government – and its rival parties – since the last general election nearly two years ago.

Around 5,000 seats across 136 local councils, along with six mayoral contests, are up for election in England.

Voters in Scotland and Wales will also go to the polls for elections to Holyrood and the Senedd.

Labour are widely expected to suffer a catastrophic night, piling fresh pressure on Keir Starmer.

The Tories are expected to endure significant losses too, with the Greens and especially Reform UK on course to make huge gains as voters deliver a damning verdict on the two main parties.

Here, HuffPost UK assesses how the main parties are shaping up ahead of the biggest test of public opinion since July, 2024.

Labour

Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks with residents at Newton Leys pavilion to discuss how the government is implementing policies to ease the cost of living as he campaigns ahead of local elections scheduled for May 7 on April 1, 2026

Pollsters’ prediction? Top forecaster Lord Hayward warned Labour will lose 1,850 council seats. That means the party could be left with barely a quarter of the 2,550 councillors they currently have in the areas which are up for re-election.

YouGov does not expect Labour to win any constituency seats in Scotland at all, with their predicted 15 seats coming from the regional top-up lists.

Labour is also expected to lose power in the Welsh parliament for the first time since it was established in 1999, with YouGov predicting the party’s vote share will drop to 13% – down 23 points on the 2021 election.

That means Labour could end up with just 12 of the Senedd’s 96 seats.

What’s the mood within the party? Understandably bleak.

Starmer is actively calling for his party to support him amid rising fears of a leadership challenge from his main rivals Angela Rayner, Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting.

One party insider said: “We’re resigned to taking a significant knock, but are still standing and trying to get out as many votes as possible.”

“I just think Labour are fucked either way,” another source said candidly.

In a rare moment of optimism, campaigners also said voters have been “disinterested” rather than actively hostile to Labour activists – which was an improvement on what they were expecting.

One insider told HuffPost UK that deputy prime minister David Lammy had told activists over the weekend that the row which hit Zack Polanksi in the wake of last week’s Golders Green attacks could damage the Greens.

This sparked some hope that the party could claw back some of their supporters.

Conservatives

Kemi Badenoch, Leader of the Conservative Party meets party supporters during a visit to Sunderland on April 02, 2026 in Sunderland, United Kingdom.

Pollsters’ prediction? The Tories are expected to lose 600 councillors in England, according to Lord Hayward.

YouGov expects the Tory vote to fall to just 8% of the vote in Holyrood – that would be the worst ever result for the party at any election within Scotland.

Predictions suggest the Tories would go from having 31 seats in 2021 to just seven.

The pollster also predicts the Tories will end up with just three seats in Wales.

What’s the mood within the party? Not very optimistic.

Tory leader Kemi Badenoch’s own leadership has been strengthened in recent months as she’s improved her PMQs appearance – and her main challenger, Robert Jenrick has defected to Reform.

But that does not necessarily translate to votes – especially as the Tories are still being punished for their 14 years in power.

One traditionally Conservative voter stunned the public this week by announcing she would be backing Labour instead, just to keep the Greens out.

Anecdotally, HuffPost UK has heard other Tories telling door-knockers they planned to do the same. The party did not respond when approached for comment.

Reform UK

Pollsters’ prediction? Hayward expects Reform to gain 1,550 seats in England.

The party is expected to make a bmajor reakthrough in Scotland, according to YouGov, winning 20 MSPs in total and replacing Labour as the official opposition to the SNP.

Reform is also in a close fight with Plaid Cymru to be the largest party in the Welsh Senedd.

What’s the mood within the party? Understandably upbeat.

Reform are set to win their first seats in Wales and Scotland after more than a year of leading in the national opinion polls.

Nigel Farage told The Sunday Times he expected the party to do “stunningly well”.

He claimed Reform would be taking “Labour heartlands” in the local elections – Yorkshire, the northwest, the northeast, parts of the Midlands and the Welsh Valleys.

But there are suggestions that support for the party has already peaked, with its polling numbers declining over the past six months.

Farage also skipped a grilling from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg on Sunday. That came after reports he accepted an undisclosed £5 million donation from a billionaire supporter before he ran to be an MP.

His team said he decided to pull out last minute to campaign in his Clacton constituency, but critics suggested he was dodging scrutiny.

The party courted further controversy on Sunday by announcing plans to put detention centres for illegal migrants in constituencies and councils which vote Green.

Greens

(L-R) Councillor and Green Party candidate for Mayor of Lewisham, Liam Shrivastava and Green Party Leader Zack Polanski pose with supporters holding placards during Lewisham Green Party's 'Big Day Out' at the Fox and Firkin on April 11, 2026 — (L-R) Councillor and Green Party candidate for Mayor of Lewisham, Liam Shrivastava and Green Party Leader Zack Polanski pose with supporters holding placards during Lewisham Green Party’s ‘Big Day Out’ at the Fox and Firkin on April 11, 2026

Pollsters’ prediction? The Greens are set to see its number of councillors in England increase by 500, according to Hayward, mainly in London and other middle class areas of major cities.

The Greens are predicted to enjoy a small boost in Scotland, up from their current eight seats to 11, according to YouGov.

YouGov also expects the party to win seven seats in Wales, meaning it could come in fourth place behind Labour in the Senedd.

What’s the mood within the party? Hopeful – but cautious.

Leader Zack Polanski was forced to apologise last week after sharing a social media post which criticised the police response to a terror attack in Golders Green.

While Labour are hopeful this will reduce the number of voters willing to support their left-wing competitors, a Green insider suggested it would not have too much cut-through.

One senior figure in the party also insisted it was all “very positive” on the doorstep, but campaigners have been more cautious behind the scenes.

“There’s been a lot of hype about us wiping out Labour in London, and we’re definitely going to have a record-breaking result. At the same time, I think people forget the base we’re coming from,” they said, pointing to Greens’ poor performance at London’s last local elections in 2021.

“It’s going to be very good for us but perhaps some of the more apocalyptic predictions forget the context we’re coming from,” the source claimed.

Lib Dems

Liberal Democrat party leader Sir Ed Davey (C), along with Roger Harmer, leader of Birmingham Liberal Democrats (CL), launches their local election campaign at The Roundhouse on April 10, 2026

Pollsters’ prediction? The Lib Dems are on course to gain 150 seats in the local elections, according to Hayward.

YouGov expects the centrist party to take nine seats in Scotland (up from its current four) but secure just three seats in Wales.

What’s the mood within the party? Surprisingly upbeat.

The Lib Dems have been trailing in the national opinion polls for some time, outshone by the traditional parties and the populist groups.

Behind the scenes, MPs have been unhappy with Ed Davey’s leadership for months, frustrated with his “gimmicks”.

But, with these elections, the party has developed a clear strategy – focusing on local council issues in the hope of taking more seats in England.

There’s even been some speculation they could become the largest party in English local government, especially with Labour and the Tories expecting to endure major losses.

SNP

SNP MSP Candidate for Stirling Alyn Smith (C-L), First Minister John Swinney (C) and Deputy Leader of the SNP Keith Brown (C-R) pose for a photo after a campaign stump speech at the King's Knot on May 01, 2026 — SNP MSP Candidate for Stirling Alyn Smith (C-L), First Minister John Swinney (C) and Deputy Leader of the SNP Keith Brown (C-R) pose for a photo after a campaign stump speech at the King’s Knot on May 01, 2026

Pollsters’ prediction? The SNP is once again on course to comfortably win the Scottish Parliament election.

YouGov predicted the SNP could win 67 seats in Holyrood – giving the party an overall majority. But More in Common and Lord Hayward have both said they will fall short.

What’s the mood within the party? Very happy.

If the polls are correct, the SNP is heading for a remarkable third decade in power, after first being elected way back in 2007.

This is despite criticism of their handling of the Scottish NHS, education system and other public services during nearly 20 years in power.

While questions remain over whether the party will be able to clinch a majority, they are set to benefit from the major splits between Scottish Labour and the Westminster government.

Labour leader Anas Sarwar called for Starmer to step down earlier this year in the hope of distancing himself from Downing Street’s disasters, but the move does not seem to have won over voters.

The Nationalists have also pledged to call for a second Scottish independence referendum if they win a majority.

Plaid Cymru

Pollsters’ prediction? The pro-independence party is only standing in the Welsh devolved election. Hayward predicted it will be the largest party in terms of votes and seats in Senedd.

However, YouGov predicted it will secure 36 seats – making it just one representative away from Reform’s lead.

What’s the mood within the party? Nervous.

Like the SNP, Plaid Cymru are hoping to capitalise on Labour’s downfall.

Unlike the Scottish Nationalists, they’ve never been in power before and so do not have to contend with their own record in office to win over voters.

But, they do have the new kids on the block to compete with: Reform UK, who are making gains in Wales – and who look set to be the largest unionist party in the Senedd after Thursday.

How Important Will May 7 Actually Be?

Steve Akehurst, director of research initiative Persuasion UK, warned against seeing this set of results as the ideal test of how the public feels.

He told HuffPost UK: “Local elections are an imperfect way of attempting to measure national sentiment.

“In terms of predictions, I think it’s best to wait for the national equivalent vote share later in the weekend.”

The specialist said analysing Reform’s performance will be particularly difficult “given the party basically didn’t exist in 2022, the last time many of these seats were contested.”

But, Akehurst warned: “It’s important to remember that Labour losing seats to Reform is not the same as Labour losing votes to Reform.

“Around the country we have seen the same patterns since the general election – where votes shifting from Reform to Tory, or Labour to Green or Liberal Democrat, led to Labour seats becoming Reform seats with little direct loss of votes from one party to the other.

“That is likely to be the case again at these elections.”

Subscribe to Commons People, the podcast that makes politics easy. Every week, Kevin Schofield and Kate Nicholson unpack the week’s biggest stories to keep you informed. Join us for straightforward analysis of what’s going on at Westminster.

Cabinet Minister Sends Warning To Starmer Rivals As Leadership Tensions Rise

Posted on 03/05/2026 by Boris Clair

A senior minister has torn into anyone considering challenging Keir Starmer’s leadership, saying rivals must “give their heads a gentle wobble”.

Labour is expected to take a beating when voters across the UK head to the ballot box for England’s local elections and devolved elections in Scotland and Wales.

According to widespread reports, senior Labour figures – including health secretary Wes Streeting, former deputy PM Angela Rayner and Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham – could be looking to topple Starmer if the party receives devastating results next week.

But Transport secretary Heidi Alexander stood by her boss on Sky News, urging challengers not to turn Labour into a “self-indulgent debating society”.

She said: “I think Keir is the best person to lead our country through the period of extreme international volatility that we are experiencing at the moment.

“I don’t think the public would thank us if the Labour Party turned into some sort of self-indulgent debating society when there are pockets of the world that feel like they are going to hell in a hand cart at the moment.”

She pointed to Starmer’s efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the major oil shipping lane which has been impacted by the US’s war in Iran.

“I think asking the prime minister to somehow reapply for his job while all of that is going on and he is entirely focused on the concerns of the British people would be the wrong thing to do,” Alexander said.

“I think those people who think we should have a leadership election now and repeat the mistakes that the Conservative government made in churning through prime ministers probably do need to give their head a gentle wobble at the moment.”

She claimed Starmer is “determined” to take what he has learned from the last two years in office and build a “stronger and fairer country for everyone”.

Asked if Alexander was sending that message to leadership rivals, she said: “This is about what the Labour Party needs to do to put the country first.

“We were elected in 2024 to deliver the change that the country was crying out for after Covid, Brexit, Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng and 14 years of Conservative government.”

“Change is going to take time,” she said, adding: “Does that mean we’re going to get a dopamine hit every couple of months? No it doesn’t. But does it mean we are going to put this country on the right path, yes, I do believe that.”

Alexander’s comments are striking considering other ministers started to distance themselves from Starmer over the Peter Mandelson scandal last month.

Work and pensions secretary Pat McFadden, questioned the prime minister’s judgment over the controversy.

Energy secretary Ed Miliband also admitted he and former foreign secretary David Lammy had both expressed concerns over Mandelson’s appointment before the ex-Labour peer became the UK’s ambassador to the US.

‘Downright Atrocious’: American Pollster Roasts Starmer Over His Unpopularity With Voters

Posted on 28/04/2026 by Boris Clair

An American pollster has eviscerated Keir Starmer over his “downright atrocious” popularity ratings with British voters.

CNN’s Harry Enten said the prime minister was even more unpopular than George W Bush or Richard Nixon ever were in the United States.

His comments came as Starmer fights for his political life over the Peter Mandelson scandal.

Enten said: “If you think things are bad here in the United States, let’s just go over the pond to the UK, because things are just downright atrocious over there for Keir Starmer.

“Just take a look here – Britons satisfied with Keir Starmer. Overall, 18%. You can’t even drink or smoke any more when you’re 18%. If you’re below that line, that’s not good.

“How about his own party, the voters who voted him in back in 2024. Less than 50% of Labour Party voters back in 2024 actually are satisfied with the job Keir Starmer is doing.

“When less than 50% of your own party voters are satisfied with what is shaking, you know you’re in bad, bad shape.”

Enten said Starmer was even more unpopular that Bush, who had the lowest ever popularity ratings for a US president at 20% when he left office in 2008.

He said: “Well I’ve got news for you; 20% is low, but it’s higher than 18%. Keir Starmer is less popular right now than the least popular American president ever.

“And Richard Nixon of course was coming in at about 24% just before he resigned office. So Keir Starmer is less popular than Richard Nixon was when he was forced out by Watergate.

“Keir Starmer – a very unpopular man. A lot of people want to put a lot of things in their tea when they look at Keir Starmer over in the UK.”

The pollster went on to point out that every other British prime minister who was as unpopular as Starmer either lost the next election or resigned from office.

“He’ll try and climb out of that hole, climb that ladder, but that ladder is going nowhere – he is on a highway to political hell,” Enten said.

He added: “The bottom line is this. Keir Starmer in massive political problems right now. Chances are, based upon history, he will either be forced out by the end of August or the voters will force him out at the end of general election.”

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Keir Starmer is less popular (18% satisfied) in the UK than the least popular US prez ever (Bush at 20%).

Just 41% of 2024 Labour voters are satisfied with the job he’s doing.

All PMs with numbers anywhere near as bad as Starmer’s were forced out or lost in the next election. pic.twitter.com/4CRtmtgAAX

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 27, 2026

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Keir Starmer is less popular (18% satisfied) in the UK than the least popular US prez ever (Bush at 20%).

Just 41% of 2024 Labour voters are satisfied with the job he’s doing.

All PMs with numbers anywhere near as bad as Starmer’s were forced out or lost in the next election. pic.twitter.com/4CRtmtgAAX

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) April 27, 2026

Labour MP Repeatedly Refuses To Say He Has ‘Confidence’ In Starmer In Awkward Interview

Posted on 23/04/2026 by Boris Clair

A Labour MP repeatedly refused to say he has “confidence” in Keir Starmer during an awkward TV interview.

Dan Carden said there “a lack of ideological vision and strategy at the heart of government” and suggested the prime minister could be forced out of office if the elections on May 7 are as bad for Labour as opinion polls suggest.

Starmer is facing a fresh crisis after it emerged shamed former Labour peer Peter Mandelson was appointed the UK’s ambassador to Washington despite failing to clear security vetting.

The PM reacted by sacking Olly Robbins, the top civil servant in the Foreign Office, for not telling him about the UK Security Vetting assessment.

During an appearance before parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee this week, Robbins claimed there was “constant pressure” from No.10 for Mandelson to be cleared to take up the role.

Carden, who is a member of the committee, told BBC Newsnight it had been “a mistake” to sack Robbins.

Asked by presenter Victoria Derbyshire if he had confidence in the PM, the Liverpool Walton MP said: “He’ll take us into the local elections and I think that will be a moment where the public have been consulted and there will be results.

“All of us as MPs will be looking at what our voters are telling us in those results. But there is definitely a question about the future of the Labour government, the future of Labour Party and what that vision is that we are setting out for the country.”

After Derbyshire asked a second time, Carden said: “Keir Starmer needs to set out where this government is heading and I think it feels right now like we’re going from crisis to crisis and that happens because there is a lack of ideological vision and strategy at the heart of government.

“I wish I wasn’t carrying forward this message, but I think we have to be honest and after the local elections it will be for the [Parliamentary Labour Party] and the leadership to look at where next.”

Asked whether “getting rid” of the PM was the answer, the MP said: “The prime minister has to set out how things are going to be different. We cannot go from crisis to crisis.

“If we have a very bad set of local election results, of course that is the moment where we can reflect on what the public have done at the ballot box, but I think that is the open conversation that will need to be had over these next couple of weeks.”

Carden added: “I want this Labour government to succeed, I would like the prime minister to succeed at doing this, but it’s a real challenge.

“I think decisions like the sacking of Olly Robbins this week just send the wrong signal that this is going in the wrong direction.”

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“Do you have confidence in your PM?”

“He’ll take us into the local elections and that will be a moment where the public have been consulted & there’ll be results.”

Labour MP Dan Carden says “there is definitely a question about the future of the Labour government\".#Newsnight pic.twitter.com/1c8MBzsb6T

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) April 22, 2026

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“Do you have confidence in your PM?”

“He’ll take us into the local elections and that will be a moment where the public have been consulted & there’ll be results.”

Labour MP Dan Carden says “there is definitely a question about the future of the Labour government”.#Newsnight pic.twitter.com/1c8MBzsb6T

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) April 22, 2026

Red Alert: Labour At War As Angela Rayner Fires Starting Gun On Race To Replace Starmer

Posted on 20/03/2026 by Boris Clair

As leadership election launches ago, it was pretty inauspicious.

Fewer than a dozen Labour MPs were present as Angela Rayner got to her feet in the basement of a Whitehall pub to make it clear she wants to replace Keir Starmer as prime minister.

Addressing the soft-left campaign group Mainstream’s spring reception, the former deputy PM said the government was “running out of time” to deliver the change Labour promised before the election.

“It needs to be felt, and we have to show that it’s a Labour government that will deliver it,” Rayner declared, before going on to take aim at home secretary Shabana Mahmood’s immigration crackdown.

Plans to double the length of time it takes for migrants – including two million who are already in the UK – to be granted permanent residency are “un-British”, Rayner said.

“That would not just be bad policy, but a breach of trust,” she told those present. “The people already in the system who made a huge investment now fear for their future.

“We cannot talk about earning a settlement if we keep moving the goalposts because moving the goalposts undermines a sense of fair play.”

Sources close to Rayner have also let it be known that the HMRC investigation into her tax affairs – the main impediment to any leadership bid – will be dealt with in time for the UK-wide elections on May 7.

By happy coincidence, that is when Starmer is expected to face moves to unseat him, assuming the results in Scotland, Wales and England are as catastrophic for the party as the opinion polls suggest.

Labour MP Karl Turner told HuffPost UK this week: “If we do badly in Scotland, Wales and up and down regions of England the PM will undoubtedly face a challenge.”

Rayner’s blatant manoeuvring has triggered an angry backlash from many Labour figures, not least those who saw her up close when she was the Secretary of State for Housing, Communities and Local Government.

“She wasn’t up to running her department, never mind the country,” said one former aide. “She couldn’t even get the bins emptied in Birmingham.”

That is a reference to the long-running strike by refuse workers in England’s second biggest city.

“She used to sit in meetings and ask why the strike was going on, when ending it was literally her job.”

Even if she is cleared by the taxman, the fact that she was forced to resign from government for failing to pay the right amount of stamp duty will continue to haunt her.

A Labour source said: “Making Angie prime minister isn’t going to make things any better for the party because most voters think she doesn’t pay her tax.”

Angela Rayner has spoken out against Shabana Mahmood's immigration reforms. — Angela Rayner has spoken out against Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms.

One senior party insider said they were baffled that Rayner had chosen to criticise Mahmood’s immigration reforms.

“The public support for what Shabana is doing is enormous, it’s probably the most popular thing the government is doing,” he said.

“The party will struggle to get a hearing if it suddenly changes its mind on something with such strong public support. There is absolutely no sign out there that the public think this is something that they have to change.

“This is the territory Labour gets itself into all the time – talking to itself rather than to the country at large.”

Writing in The Guardian, Rayner pointed out that centre-left parties in Canada, Australia and Norway “surged back to win again” in the face of challenges from right-wing populists.

“They showed they would tackle the issues that mattered most to people, and voters decided that a progressive government that puts people first and lowers costs for ordinary people was the better choice,” she wrote.

But one Labour MP said: “Her comparisons to Norway, Australia and Canada undermine her fundamental thesis – that there needs to now be a change because time is of the essence.

“In each country Rayner cites, the governing party bounced back in the final year of the parliamentary term before going on to win.

“This is a view which seeks to falsely cherry pick countries, ignoring the dramatic fall in support for centre left parties across advanced democracies in Europe – whether it be in France, in Germany or in Italy.”

Another backbencher said: “Where’s Angela’s vision? It’s all very well criticising, but there’s no substance.

“What would she do to tackle the energy crisis, the geopolitical headwinds, or young people not in work, education or training? She’s got nothing to say on any of those things.”

Although it may still seem unlikely, there is a small but growing body of opinion within Labour that Starmer may still be leader long after May 7.

“At the moment, he’s the least worst option,” a Labour veteran told HuffPost UK.

“A lot of people doubt whether Rayner’s up to it, and there’s a suspicion that Wes [Streeting] is all style and no substance. Andy Burnham can’t even get a seat so he’s out of the equation.

“Out of them all I’d probably favour Shabana, but the immigration stuff puts me off. Sending girls back to Afghanistan is beyond the pale, in my opinion.”

“There is definitely a world in which Keir is still there at the end of the year,” said a former Labour adviser.

“The right of the party have worked out none of their candidates stand a chance of winning with the members, and the left are getting everything they want from Starmer anyway, so why bother changing it?”

Angela Rayner has fired the starting gun on the race to succeed Starmer. It is yet to be seen whether she will make it to the finishing line.

Why War In Iran Is The Last Thing Starmer Needs As Voters Prepare To Seal His Fate

Posted on 06/03/2026 by Boris Clair

Towards the end of the third and final part of Channel 4′s ‘The Tony Blair Story’, the former prime minister once again defends his decision to take the UK to war in Iraq.

“I can’t think of another British prime minister who also wouldn’t have wanted to be with America post-9/11,” he says.

Given the events of the past week, it is worth considering whether Blair has now revised that view.

Keir Starmer, the first Labour leader to win a general election since Blair did it for a third time in 2005, decided he did not want to “be with America” when Donald Trump sought permission to use British bases to launch missiles at Iran.

The prime minister doubts the legality of the military action, and is unconvinced that the US president has any plan at all for what comes next.

Starmer only relented when Iran began attacking other countries in the region, putting 300,000 British lives at risk.

And even then, the PM made clear that the US can only use British bases to carry out “defensive” operations targeting weapons storage facilities and missile launch sites.

In comments which could have been specifically chosen to anger Tony Blair, Starmer said: “We all remember the mistakes of Iraq. And we have learned those lessons.

“We were not involved in the initial strikes on Iran, and we will not join offensive action now.”

Trump – who Starmer had been relatively successful in wooing since he returned to the White House – has made clear to any journalist who will listen how furious he is at the PM’s approach.

“This is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with,” the president mockingly told reporters in the Oval Office.

A group of men inspects the ruins of a police station struck Monday amid the US–Israeli military campaign in Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, March 3, 2026.

Starmer may feel reassured by a YouGov poll published on Thursday which showed that just 8% of the country believe the UK should be “actively joining the US and Israel” in bombing Iran.

Just under half – 46% – say Britain should restrict itself to shooting down drones, defending civilian areas and UK military facilities, which is in line with the government’s own approach.

Around a quarter – 26% – say the UK response should be “retaliatory only, attacking military targets that have launched attacks against civilian areas and/or British military targets”.

However, when asked how the PM is handling the crisis, 47% say badly, with just 34% saying well.

The same poll found that 52% of voters think Starmer is handling his relationship with Trump badly, with just 32% supporting his approach.

Predictably, Starmer has been attacked by the Greens for getting involved in the war at all, and by Reform and the Tories for not being more supportive of Trump.

“I think Keir is where the country is at the moment, which is not where the right wing press are”

– Senior member of the cabinet

A senior Labour source told HuffPost UK: “There are three competing choices in front of the British public currently.

“The Greens, who are making the case that our government should sit on our hands and do nothing to protect ourselves, even while 300,000 UK nationals and our allies are under threat.

“Reform and the Tories, who are essentially arguing we should sub-contract our foreign policy to, at best, an ill-defined and escalating war.

“Or this Labour government, who are clear that we’re defending British nationals and interests as part of our collective self defence.”

A minister, not normally one of the PM’s biggest fans, said Starmer’s handling of the war so far had been “measured, responsible and rooted in the national interest”.

By comparison, the minister said, the more gung-ho Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage have “lost the plot”.

Another normally-critical Labour MP said: “To be fair to the prime minister, he’s handled it pretty well. But he’s at the mercy of events.”

According to The Spectator, the PM is also at the mercy of his own cabinet.

While he and defence secretary John Healey wanted to let America use British bases at the outset of the war, he was effectively blocked by Rachel Reeves, Yvette Cooper, Shabana Mahmood and, most vociferously, Ed Miliband.

A senior member of the cabinet told HuffPost UK that the unpredictability of war means that the PM is not in control of his own destiny.

“I think Keir is where the country is at the moment, which is not where the right wing press are,” he said.

“Things could change very quickly, of course, if British citizens start getting killed.”

Chris Hopkins, political research director at pollsters Savanta UK, said the PM is unlikely to enjoy any war bounce in his subterranean approval ratings, regardless of Trump’s own unpopularity with the British public.

He said: “Unfortunately for Keir Starmer, the public are far more likely to simply agree with Donald Trump’s assessment of the prime minister than sympathise with him.

“Even a broken clock is right twice a day, and I think the public are more likely to feel Trump has given an accurate assessment than leap to the Labour leader’s defence.”

Luke Tryl, director of the More in Common think-tank, said the PM’s popularity may marginally improve, but any boost will be short-lived.

“My hunch is he gets a small but not sustained ‘rally round’ bump, which helps him consolidate on the left,” he said. “I’d be most watching his approval with Lib Dems, which I suspect goes up most.”

Starmer admitted on Thursday that the war “could continue for some time”, an unwelcome distraction for a PM whose fate will more than likely be decided by the outcome of crucial elections across the UK in just two months’ time.

The PM’s determination to provide “calm, level-headed leadership in the national interest” will cut little ice with voters who appear determined to punish Labour for their multiple failures since taking office in 2024.

Few are likely to disagree with Trump’s assessment that Starmer is no Churchill.

But it is the prime minister’s failure to emulate the election-winning genius of Tony Blair which will ultimately seal his fate.

Analysis: Rachel Reeves Was In Punchy Form – But War In The Middle East Could Ruin Her Economic Plans

Posted on 03/03/2026 by Boris Clair

Rachel Reeves looked as though she was enjoying herself as she took aim at Labour’s political opponents while delivering her Spring Statement.

With no new policies to announce, the chancellor decided to use a decent chunk of her time at the despatch box attacking Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Green Party.

“The Tories left our country, our people and our allies exposed: They had no plan and no intention to fund their pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence,” she said.

“Reform would go one step further by ditching our allies and siding with Russia, while the Green Party wants to take us out of Nato and jeopardise our alliances.

“So let me be clear: It is Labour and only Labour that can provide social justice, national security and fiscal responsibility.”

In another section, she dismissed Reform as “a Tory tribute act” following the defections of the likes of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.

“They may have changed the colour of their rosettes, but the British people won’t forget that they are the exact same people that wrecked our public services and wrecked our public finances in the last Tory government,” she said.

“The same people, the same policies and the same disastrous outcomes for working people.”

But behind the political knockabout, the chancellor must know that the fate of the UK economy – and perhaps even the Labour government – depends on the outcome of the latest war in the Middle East.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may have forecast that inflation will come down, but that was before the US and Israel’s bombing of Iran sparked an energy crisis which has seen gas prices soar in the past 48 hours.

If that ends up feeding through into people’s bills, Labour will pay a huge political price.

The same goes for the OBR’s forecasts on economic growth, as well as government borrowing and national debt.

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East, and the accompanying economic turmoil which would ensue, would blow another huge hole in the already-stretched public finances.

With unemployment set to be higher than expected this year and the tax burden set to hit another post-war high, yet more economic uncertainty is the last thing the chancellor needs.

“This government has the right economic plan for our country,” Reeves insisted.

“A plan that is even more important in a world that in the last few days has become yet more uncertain.

“With the unfolding conflict in Iran and the Middle East, it is incumbent on me and on this government to chart a course through that uncertainty, to secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.”

She may have talked a good game, but the chancellor knows that events thousands of miles away have the potential to destroy her economic plans and plunge the government into political crisis they may not recover from.

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