Nigel Farage is the very definition of a Marmite politician.
His opponents harbour feelings for him which range between contempt and outright hatred, while his supporters believe he can do no wrong.
The Reform UK leader’s ability to divide opinion was demonstrated at prime minister’s questions on Wednesday, when opposing MPs heckled him as he tried to ask Keir Starmer about the small boats crisis.
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At one point, a Reform MP could be heard shouting “will you shut up” at his detractors as Farage continued to make his point.
Moments like that do Farage no harm at all. He presents himself as the anti-establishment politician speaking up on behalf of ordinary voters. How better can that be demonstrated than by MPs from the governing party trying to drown him out in the Commons?
And while Reform UK suffer blows which would be hugely damaging for other parties, they continue to lead in the polls and take council seats off their opponents.
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In the past week alone, their number of MPs was once again reduced from five to four following James McMurdock’s decision to sit as an independent following allegations about his business dealings prior to entering politics.
And yet, a new poll published on Friday by Techne UK showed Reform’s lead over Labour is actually growing, with the Tories languishing 11 points behind Farage’s party in third place.
According to Luke Tryl of the More in Common think-tank, voters’ misgivings about Farage and his party are outweighed by their unhappiness with both Labour and the Tories.
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He said: “There is a difference between Reform’s previous voters are their newer voters. Their previous voters are much more ideologically motivated, their newer voters are much more likely to say they are disillusioned by mainstream parties. They are the group I like to call the ‘roll the dice’ voters.
“We did a focus group in Lanark before that by-election, which Labour gained from the SNP but was a reasonably close three-way race.
“I spoke to someone who was voting for Nigel Farage, who said ‘personally I think the guy’s an arsehole, but I’m going to give him a shot because he can’t be any worse than the others’.
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“I think that’s the attitude which is driving it. Lots of people say they don’t have any confidence in any politician of any party, but we may as well roll the dice on something new.”
There is no doubt that Labour’s less-than-stellar start to life in government has helped Farage.
Voters who backed Keir Starmer a year ago and are backing Reform “are more likely to say that they’ve switched because the government have failed to get immigration under control”, said Tryl.
He added: “It isn’t that the government hasn’t done a lot of popular things, but they’re drowned out by winter fuel, prisoner releases, farmers’ tax and the benefits cuts – they have defined in the public’s mind that the government has done so far.
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“The government isn’t protecting the people that the public would like them to.”
This view was typified by Tim, a teacher who has switched from Labour to Reform in the past 12 months.
He told a More in Common focus group that Labour was “taking money off people with benefits and making life harder for them, but still letting the energy giants have huge bonuses every year”.
And while just one-third of voters say Farage respects people like them, that is still far more than the third who feel the same way about the prime minister and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch.
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A former Tory cabinet minister pointed outthat the normal rules of politics do not apply to Farage and Reform, and until his party and Labour wake up to that fact, nothing will change.
“The establishment parties are still playing into Reform’s hands,” he said. ”Reform are controlling the game at the moment. As we head into the summer recess, they’re still setting the agenda.
“Colleagues are getting bogged down on this nonsense about an MP leaving Reform – it doesn’t matter out there in the real world. A Reform councillor doing something appalling doesn’t matter. It might have some local impact but in the grand scheme of things it doesn’t matter.”
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The solution, the MP said, was for Labour and the Tories to keep their promises to the electorate.
“Politicians have to do what they say they’re going to do,” he said. “You might not agree with Donald Trump, but voters like the fact that he does what he said he was going to do.”
Farage pulled off another coup by recruiting former Tory chairman Jake Berry to the Reform ranks this week.
Berry, who served under three Conservative PMs, including his close friend Boris Johnson, said the mainstream parties had “broken Britain”.
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But one of his former Tory colleagues said the significance of his defection had been overstated.
The MP said: “People like Jake Berry and [former Tory minister now Reform UK mayor] Andrea Jenkyns were not popular people. They are evidence of the mistakes of the past.
“If they were defections by people who were respected then that is a different kettle of fish. But their motivations are pretty transparent – she did it to become mayor of Lincolnshire and he wants to be mayor of Lancashire.
Nevertheless, Berry’s defection undoubtedly put further wind in the Reform sails.
If more senior Tories followed, and were joined by some from Labour, then Farage will be smiling again – regardless of what some of voters think of him.
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