Nigel Farage On Course To Be Prime Minister As Labour And Tories Collapse, New Mega-Poll Shows

Posted on 26/09/2025 by Boris Clair

Nigel Farage would “almost certainly” become prime minister on the back of a huge surge in support for Reform UK if a general election was held tomorrow, according to a new mega-poll.

The YouGov survey of 13,000 people shows Reform would win 311 seats – up from the five they won at last year’s election.

Labour would lose a staggering 267 seats to leave them on just 144, while the Tories would have just 45 MPs, 76 fewer than they got elected in 2024.

The number of Lib Dem MPs would increase by six to 78, with the SNP on 37 (up 28), the Greens on 7 (up 3) and Plaid Cymru on 6 (up 2).

Such a result would almost certainly result in Farage leading a minority government, meaning he would have to do deals with other parties to get Reform legislation through the Commons.

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YouGov’s September 2025 MRP projects a hung parliament where Reform UK would be almost certain to form a government

Reform UK: 311 (+306 from 2024)
Labour: 144 (-267)
Lib Dems: 78 (+6)
Conservatives: 45 (-76)
SNP: 37 (+28)
Greens: 7 (+3)
Plaid: 6 (+2)
Others: 3 (-2) pic.twitter.com/4K1fUBn4ij

— YouGov (@YouGov) September 26, 2025

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YouGov’s September 2025 MRP projects a hung parliament where Reform UK would be almost certain to form a government

Reform UK: 311 (+306 from 2024)
Labour: 144 (-267)
Lib Dems: 78 (+6)
Conservatives: 45 (-76)
SNP: 37 (+28)
Greens: 7 (+3)
Plaid: 6 (+2)
Others: 3 (-2) pic.twitter.com/4K1fUBn4ij

— YouGov (@YouGov) September 26, 2025

In terms of vote share, Reform UK are on 27% of the national vote, with Labour on 21%, the Tories on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 15% and the Greens on 11%.

The seat totals are calculated using the so-called “MRP” method, which compiles constituency-by-constituency data to provide a more accurate forecast.

Patrick English, YouGov’s director of political analytics, said the poll showed Reform would be “within touching distance of winning a parliamentary majority”.

He said: “Their seat total in a hypothetical election would almost certainly be enough to see them take the reins of government.”

Labour would lose a swathe of seats in their traditional heartlands in the north of England, Scotland and Wales.

Among the big names on course to lose their seats are Yvette Cooper, Wes Streeting, Ed Miliband and Angela Rayner.

English said: “Such a defeat for Labour would be an even greater loss of seats than the Conservatives experienced at the last general election, and a sharp turnaround from a majority victory that was expected by some to carry the party through at least two terms in office.”

The Conservatives, meanwhile, would be all-but wiped out at a serious political force in the UK.

English said: “We would expect the Conservatives – the current official opposition – to win only 68 seats at the very maximum, with the Liberal Democrats projected to win no fewer than 65 seats and potentially as many as 86.”

This Is How Brits Really Think The Tories Have Changed UK Life Over The Last 14 Years

Posted on 06/06/2024 by Boris Clair

Most Brits think the Conservatives have made life worse – in many ways – since getting into power in 2010, a new poll has found.

In yet another blow to PM Rishi Sunak as his campaign continues to flounder, YouGov has revealed that that two thirds (67%) of Brits disapprove of the government’s record.

Three quarters (73%) think the UK is a worse place than it was 13 years ago, too – and that includes a majority (59%) of 2019 Tory voters.

In fact, even 61-68% of those planning to vote Tory in the next election agreed.

Of the 2,040 adults polled between 29 and 30 May, only 8% think the UK is better now, and 11% think life is pretty much the same.

YouGov also asked participants what they thought about how the government has handled 21 different topics, from social issues to healthcare.

The respondents were most united in their reaction to how the cost of living has changed over the last 14 years – 85% said the Tories had made it worse.

This was closely followed by the NHS, which 84% thought had worsened under the Conservatives.

The poll offered similarly bleak reactions over what has happened to immigration system and the economy in the last decade and a half with 78% saying both areas had worsened.

This will be an especially disappointing result for those in the Conservative headquarters considering the party has been pledging to reduce the number of migrants since David Cameron got into office.

The party has often portrayed itself as the one which is best at managing the economy, too – but it seems that reputation is now in tatters.

In fact, more than half of participants thought the Tories had made 15 of the 21 issues worse – including housing, crime and policing, Britain’s standing in the world and standards in public life.

A majority also had a poor opinion of what’s happened to the health of British democracy, the tax system, transport, schools, the state of the armed forces, the welfare system and local government services.

In most ways, most Britons think the UK is worse now than it was in 2010

% who say the following are now worse than in 2010
Cost of living: 85%
NHS: 84%
Immigration: 78%
Economy: 78%
Housing: 72%
Crime/policing: 71%
Britain’s standing in the world: 67%
Standards in public life:… pic.twitter.com/U24Sb33tIn

— YouGov (@YouGov) June 6, 2024

More than half (57%) said they thought Rishi Sunak was a poor or terrible prime minister, and only 13% thought he was a great or a good one.

YouGov is not the only one predicting a pretty bleak turnout for Sunak at next month’s election, either.

On Tuesday, Survation’s mega poll predicted the Conservatives face electoral wipeout at the general election, with just 71 MPs in a potentially “extinction level event” ahead.

Only The Over-70s Would Vote Tory, Poll Finds

Posted on 30/01/2024 by Boris Clair

The Conservative traditional grip on older voters appears to be slipping as research found only people aged over 70 back the Tories.

Pollster YouGov revealed that the age group most likely to vote Labour in the next election is 25 to 29-year-olds – at 59 per cent. And Keir Starmer’s party had an advantage over the Tories in five other age categories, with a lead among 18 to 24-year-olds up to the 60-69-year-old age bracket.

The only age category most likely to opt for the Conservatives are the over-70s, at 43 per cent.

Ahead of the last general election in 2019, the Conservative party was ahead of Labour in the four age categories from 40 years old and over.

Age will once again be a key factor in how people vote, and currently Labour are ahead among every age group except the over-70s

Labour / Tory vote by age group

18-24: 56% / 9%
25-29: 59% / 10%
30-39: 58% / 12%
40-49: 52% / 16%
50-59: 43% / 24%
60-69: 33% / 31%
70+: 23% / 43%… pic.twitter.com/MWMcSdq05J

— YouGov (@YouGov) January 30, 2024

YouGov’s Matthew Smith said: “Age will continue to be the key dividing line at the general election.

“The Tories are now the most popular party only among the over-70s, 43% of whom back the party. This is down from 67% in 2019, however, with Labour being the main beneficiaries, having increased their vote share among the oldest Britons from 14% to 23%.

“Britons in their 60s are split, with 33% backing Labour and 31% the Conservatives. The majority of Britons under-50 now say they will vote Labour.”

The poll also looked at voting intention by gender, education and class. “The coalition that won the Conservatives the 2019 general election has crumbled,” it summarised.

Polls have repeatedly give Labour a double-digit lead over Rishi Sunak’s party. Last week, the prime minister’s own pollster quit No.10 having concluded the country is on course for a “decade of Labour rule”.

‘Taxes Are Private Matters,’ Foreign Secretary Says Over Nadhim Zahawi ‘Error’

Posted on 22/01/2023 by Boris Clair

James Cleverly has insisted that tax affairs are “private matters” during a grilling over the finances of the Tory party chairman.

The foreign secretary stressed that Nadhim Zahawi made a “careless error” after it was revealed he paid a settlement to HM Revenue & Customs in relation to a shareholding in YouGov.

Zahawi is under pressure over allegations that he tried to avoid tax and has now had to pay it back as part of a multi-million pound settlement.

Cleverly said he did not know the size of the tax settlement with HMRC or whether Zahawi paid a penalty.

“I don’t know more than is in his statement,” Cleverly said.

Pressed on whether Zahawi should reveal more information, Cleverly said: “People’s taxes are private matters. I know that as politicians we, quite rightly, are expected to have a higher level of disclosure than perhaps other people might do.

“Nadhim has issued a statement where he has admitted that he made a careless error, that this is now resolved.”

Cleverly also swerved questions over whether Zahawi negotiated his tax settlement while he was chancellor, or what Rishi Sunak knew when he appointed him party chairman.

“I’m not an investigator,” he added when it was put to him that he was there to speak on behalf of the government.

Asked whether Zahawi will survive in his role until Wednesday, Cleverly said: “What else am I going to say other than yes, because he’s a very, very effective minister.”

Foreign Secretary James Cleverly faced a grilling

Zahawi, who attends Sunak’s Cabinet, released a statement to “address some of the confusion about my finances”.

However, the statement raised further questions, including whether Zahawi negotiated the settlement when he was chancellor and in charge of the country’s taxation.

Claims started emerging when Zahawi was made chancellor by Boris Johnson last summer, with reports suggesting Cabinet Office officials had alerted the then-prime minister to the HMRC dispute.

Zahawi did not disclose the size of the settlement – reported to be an estimated £4.8 million including a 30% penalty – or confirm whether he paid a fine.

Tax lawyer Dan Neidle, who has been working to expose the minister’s tax affairs, estimated that he owed £3.7 million.

In an unusual move, Zahawi did not take founder shares when he set up YouGov, saying in his statement that his father took shares “in exchange for some capital and his invaluable guidance”.

He continued: “Twenty one years later, when I was being appointed chancellor of the Exchequer, questions were being raised about my tax affairs. I discussed this with the Cabinet Office at the time.

“Following discussions with HMRC, they agreed that my father was entitled to founder shares in YouGov, though they disagreed about the exact allocation. They concluded that this was a ‘careless and not deliberate’ error.

“So that I could focus on my life as a public servant, I chose to settle the matter and pay what they said was due, which was the right thing to do.”

He added that the matter was resolved and that all his tax affairs were “up to date” when he was appointed Tory party chairman by Sunak in October.

But the prime minister is facing questions over what he knew about the matter and when, as well as calls to sack Zahawi.

Sunak’s promise of a premiership of “integrity” was already thrown into disarray this week after he was fined by police for not wearing a seatbelt and criticised for the allocation of levelling-up funding.

Downing Street said it had nothing to add to Zahawi’s statement and confirmed that the prime minister had confidence in him as Tory chairman.

Opposition parties have demanded an independent probe as well as the publication of all of Zahawi’s correspondence with HMRC.

Labour party chairwoman Anneliese Dodds said Sunak needs to remove Zahawi as party chair, adding: “Zahawi still needs to explain when he became aware of the investigation, and if he was chancellor and in charge of our tax system at the time.

“He needs to explain why his legal representatives said his affairs were up to date in December last year only for him to settle a million-pound fine this month.”

Lib Dem deputy leader Daisy Cooper said: “Zahawi and his Conservative Cabinet colleagues are arrogantly trying to brush this under the carpet.

“There are facts that still need to be established so there must be an independent investigation to get to the bottom of this.”

Labour Has An Enormous 33-Point Poll Lead Over The Tories

Posted on 29/09/2022 by Boris Clair

The Labour Party has surged to an astonishing 33-point lead over the Tories, according to new polling.

The YouGov poll, carried out on Wednesday and Thursday, put Labour on 54% (+9) compared to the Conservatives’ 21% (-7).

The Times, which commissioned the poll, said it is believed to be the largest poll lead enjoyed by any party with any pollster since the late 1990s.

It follows a successful Labour conference in Liverpool and, more importantly, market turmoil and public outcry following Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget last Friday.

The poll also shows the gap between the Lib Dems in third (7%) and the Tories is smaller than between Labour and the Conservatives.

The poll will heap more pressure on prime minister Liz Truss – who has been in power for only three weeks – as he forges ahead with her controversial growth plan.

With reports of unease among Tory MPs after the market chaos of recent days, some have called for an urgent change of course from the prime minister.

Julian Smith, a former Cabinet minister, urged the government to “take responsibility” for the crisis.

“The government must scrap 45p, take responsibility for the link between last Friday and the impact on people’s mortgages and make clear that it will do everything possible to stabilise markets and protect public services,” he tweeted.

Former science minister George Freeman called on the Cabinet to meet and agree a “Plan B”.

“The economic package of borrowing & tax cuts announced last week clearly can’t command market or voter confidence,” he said on Twitter.

Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have insisted their £45 billion package of tax cuts is the “right plan” to get the economy moving despite chaos on the financial markets and fears of rocketing mortgage bills.

In their first public comments since the pound hit a record low on Monday, neither the prime minister nor the chancellor commented directly on the turmoil created by his mini-budget.

During a round of BBC local radio interviews, Truss said the government had to take “urgent action” to kick-start the economy and protect consumers from rising energy costs.

And during a visit to an engine plant in Darlington, Kwarteng said the package he announced in the Commons on Friday was “absolutely essential” if the economy was to generate the revenues needed to fund public services.

Worried About Boris Johnson’s Prorogation Of Parliament? Here Are 5 Things You Can Do

Posted on 29/08/2019 by Boris Clair

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