Health24.com | Coronavirus morning update: New lockdown rules as deaths in SA now 48 – but more than 900 recoveries

Posted on 17/04/2020 by Boris Clair

Cases update:

The latest number of confirmed cases is 2 605.

There have been 48 deaths recorded so far.

According to latest data from the department of health, there have been 903 recoveries.

Latest news:

Minister of Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma says some of the measures the government has put in place during the lockdown will remain once it is lifted.

The minister was speaking during a media briefing by members of the national command council (NCC) in Pretoria on Thursday.

The NCC is spearheading South Africa’s battle against the novel coronavirus pandemic, which has already claimed the lives of 34 people in the country, while 2 506 have tested positive.

“When we do stop the lockdown, we cannot do it abruptly – that today it’s complete lockdown and tomorrow it’s open completely. We have to phase in, so that there is an orderly move towards normality,” said Dlamini-Zuma.

South Africa has been under lockdown since 26 March.

The lockdown regulations include a travel ban, schools shutting down, and large gatherings and the sale of alcohol prohibited, among others.

“Probably every week we are going to be announcing which areas are going to be opened, incrementally, and the conditions of those openings,” said Dlamini-Zuma.

The second phase of South Africa’s national Covid-19 lockdown will be under rules only slightly altered from the initial hard lockdown, the government announced on Thursday.

Ministers presented their plans for the new phase, before the publication of updated regulations that will take on the force of law, complete with criminal sanction.

There would be “a few amendments”, co-operative governance and traditional affairs minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma said, but mostly existing regulations will be extended.

Coming weeks may see further relaxations, she said, refusing to speak about specifics beyond “schools might be opening” and “industries may have to come slowly on stream”, as part of an “orderly way of easing the lockdown”.

“Expect almost every week new conditions will be coming.”

Separated or divorced parents, who have shared custody of their child or children, will now have visitation rights if they have a court order or birth certificate, the amended regulations of the nationwide lockdown state.

The regulations were released on Thursday by Cooperative Governance and Traditional Affairs Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma.

The lockdown, which was initially supposed to end on 16 April, continues to the end of the month after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced an extension.

The regulations state parents sharing responsibilities can share their children provided there is a court order allowing them to do so or where there is an agreement or parenting plan that is registered with a family advocate.

Parents can also use certified copies of birth certificates as proof of a legitimate relationship between themselves.

Under new rules announced on Thursday South Africans will be able to call out for emergency repair workers such as electricians and plumbers, for the remainder of the extended lockdown period.

The amended regulations govern the 14-day extended lockdown period announced by President Cyril Ramaphosa last week to curb the spread of the coronavirus.

This lockdown period will end on April 30. Government has said the economy will then be “incrementally” opened up, meaning that some trades and services would remain prohibited for longer than others.

The list of emergency repair providers includes plumbers, electricians, locksmiths, glaziers and roof repairers.

WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE REST OF THE WORLD

Cases update:

For the latest global data, follow this interactive map from Johns Hopkins University & Medicine.

Late on Thursday night, positive cases worldwide were more than 2.1 million, while deaths were more than 142 000.

The United States has the most cases, with more than 650 000.

Five other countries, Spain, Italy, France, Germany and the United Kingdom, have more than 100 000 cases each.

Latest news:

A 99-year-old British World War II veteran on Thursday completed 100 laps of his garden in a fundraising challenge for healthcare staff that has “captured the heart of the nation”, raising more than £13 million13 million ($16.2 million, 14.9 million euros).

“Incredible and now words fail me,” said Tom Moore, a captain who served in India, after finishing the laps of his 25-metre (82-foot) garden with the help of his walking frame.

Moore initially set himself the goal of raising 1000 for a National Health Service charity in time for his 100th birthday at the end of the month, after receiving treatment for cancer and a broken hip.

But his efforts – a rare bit of good news during the global coronavirus pandemic that has killed almost 13 000 people in Britain alone – have made him a star in his own country and abroad, with the government suggesting honours may be in order.

While countries across the world enact social distancing measures to curb the spread of the new coronavirus, some countries across Africa are dealing with food shortages impacting their neediest populations, as farmers and aid workers are unable to travel to provide the food, the Associated Press reported.

“Most Africans work in the informal sector and need to go out every day. I think above all of access to food,” World Health Organisation Africa regional chief Matshidiso Moeti told the AP.

According to the AP, lockdowns in 33 countries on the continent prevented farmers from getting their produce to markets and hindered food delivery to rural areas. About 20 % of the continent’s population was already food insecure before the pandemic.

“With lockdowns, border closures and the ability to access food curtailed, the impact of Covid-19 on Africa could be like nothing we have seen before,” Sean Granville-Ross, director for Africa at the aid agency Mercy Corps told the AP.

LATEST RESEARCH

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently published a blueprint document that listed 70 vaccine candidates that were leading the way towards a solution to the coronavirus pandemic.

While 67 of those vaccines are still in a pre-clinical phase, three of the vaccines are taking the lead and have now been moved on to clinical trials.

The three developers are:

– A collaboration between CanSino Biologics Incorporated and the Beijing Institute of Technology

– Inovio Pharmaceuticals

– A team effort by Moderna Therapeutics and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)

Over the past few weeks, we’ve heard a lot about the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine which are primarily used to treat malaria and autoimmune diseases. US President Donald Trump, for example, has been pushing for its use and recently called it a ‘game-changer’ in the fight against Covid-19.

We spoke to Associate Professor Sean Wasserman, Infectious Diseases Specialist at Groote Schuur Hospital, University of Cape Town and Professor Wolfgang Preiser, Head of the Division of Medical Virology at the University of Stellenbosch on what the evidence suggests.

Misleading claims that there is good evidence to suggest that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine can treat Covid-19 have been doing the rounds for some time. But evidence suggests otherwise.

Hydroxychloroquine, which is closely related to chloroquine, was first approved by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in 1955 as a treatment for malaria, and has also been widely used for long-term use in autoimmune diseases, such as lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. There’s plenty of safety data and experience on its use for these indications, explains Professor Wasserman.

A team of Harvard scientists, who modelled the trajectory of the current coronavirus, came to the conclusion that a once-off lockdown, which many countries around the world are currently experiencing, will not completely eradicate the new coronavirus.

Instead, this team suggested in a study that Covid-19 will become seasonal, and that may require intermittent measures of physical distancing to curtail the spread and take the load off health systems.

The study consists of a computer simulation depicting the possible Covid-19 trajectory, which was published in the journal Science.

Seasonal coronaviruses are not new – a couple of strains are known to cause mild cold symptoms

Around the turn of the century, developing countries, led by African countries, dramatically fought for and won safeguards to promote access to medicines in international trade law. These safeguards are now being heralded by lawmakers around the world as critical legal mechanisms that nations can and must use in the fight against Covid-19.

Maybe the most important of these safeguards is the right to grant compulsory licenses when the public interest requires it. In short, compulsory licenses allow generic companies to manufacture and sell medicines even if the medicine in question is still under patent. It is called “compulsory”, since the license is granted whether or not the patent-holder agrees to it. The patent-holder is paid royalties as compensation.

International trade law determines the standards of patent protection that World Trade Organisation (WTO) member countries are required to provide. The WTO was established in 1995 to govern international trade and settle disputes between countries. In the same year, the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (commonly known as TRIPS) came into force. South Africa has been a member of the WTO since 1995.

The TRIPS agreement obliges WTO member countries to provide 20 years of monopoly protection on patent claims meeting countries’ patentability criteria (these can differ widely between countries).

HEALTH TIPS (as recommended by the NICD and WHO)

• Maintain physical distancing – stay at least one metre away from somebody who is coughing or sneezing

• Practise frequent hand-washing, especially after direct contact with ill people or their environment

• Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth, as your hands touch many surfaces and could potentially transfer the virus

• Practise respiratory hygiene – cover your mouth with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Remember to dispose the tissue immediately after use.

Health24.com | Could a measles vaccine help in the fight against Covid-19?

Posted on 17/04/2020 by Boris Clair

Months into the pandemic, the World Health Organization (WHO) has published a list of 70 vaccine candidates, with three of those already in the first phases of clinical evaluation.

In one of these efforts, France’s Pasteur Institute is working on making use of a modified measles vaccine to trick the body into producing antibodies against the new coronavirus, according to a report.

The Pasteur Institute is renowned for their fight against infectious diseases, having come up with remedies against a number of diseases, including typhoid fever, tuberculosis, yellow fever and HIV.

According to virologist Frédéric Tangy, nearly all 133 research departments of the institute are actively involved in Covid-19 related research.

How can a measles vaccine fight coronavirus?

Tangy and his team will modify a standard measles vaccine in the hope that it will trigger an immune response against the new coronavirus, similar to the action of the MMR vaccine that is currently used against measles, mumps and rubella.

Benefits of this venture would include the fact that an MMR vaccine is quick and affordable to manufacture, and that a single vaccination can trigger strong and long-lasting immunity.

An MMR vaccine usually works by triggering the body to produce antibodies against measles, mumps and rubella after a live, weakened form of these viruses is injected. The weakened form of these viruses is enough to trigger the immune system to deliver a response, but not strong enough to make you ill.

The same strategy showed promising results when it was used for the institute’s vaccine against Chikugunya, a disease caused by Aedes aegypti mosquitos in South Asia. This current vaccine is now in phase thee of its clinical trial.

How long will such a vaccine take to develop?

If this vaccine candidate tuns out to be promising, the University of Pittsburgh’s Centre for Vaccine Research will partner with the Pasteur Institute to start animal testing.

Vials will then be manufactured for the first phase of a clinical trial, which should be able to take place within a year.

Tangy explained that it is vital to have enough time to test for side-effects, as the wrong immune response can be more dangerous than the virus itself.

READ | The new coronavirus: The urgent, but long race for a vaccine

READ | These are the 3 coronavirus vaccines furthest along in development – already in clinical trials

READ | Another coronavirus vaccine being tested in mice

^{Image credit: Unsplash}

Compiled by Marelize Wilke

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Posted on 17/04/2020 by Boris Clair

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Genetic variation not an obstacle to gene drive strategy to control mosquitoes

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

New research from entomologists at UC Davis clears a potential obstacle to using CRISPR-Cas9 “gene drive” technology to control mosquito-borne diseases such as malaria, dengue fever, yellow fever and Zika.

The idea is to create genetically engineered mosquitoes (GEM) that either fail to reproduce, reducing the mosquito population, or that resist carrying viruses and parasites that cause disease. These mosquitoes would be created in a lab and released to interbreed with wild mosquitoes.

That’s where gene drive technology comes in. Using the Cas 9 enzyme, researchers can ensure that the new, modified genes would be inherited by all of the mosquito’s offspring when they mate with wild mosquitoes.

Genetic variation not an obstacle

Cas-9 works by recognizing a 23-base pair stretch of DNA. A number of research teams have pointed out that mosquito genomes carry so much DNA sequence variation that a significant proportion of any wild mosquito population will almost certainly be resistant to gene drive. If resistance to the gene drive is favorable to the mosquito, then the gene drive strategy will fail, they argue.

A new study by Hanno Schmidt, Gregory Lanzaro and colleagues at the Vector Genetics Laboratory in the UC Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, published in Nature Communications, shows that this is not the case. After analyzing genomes of hundreds of mosquitoes from three major disease-carrying species, they concluded that 90 percent of protein-coding genes had at least one good Cas9 target sequence. Therefore the mosquitoes should still be susceptible to the gene drive strategy.

“Our results demonstrate that the high level of genetic diversity carried by mosquito populations in nature should not influence the sustainability of strategies based on the introduction of pathogen blocking genes. This is great news for those pursuing a GEM strategy for the elimination of malaria,” Lanzaro said.

Additional authors on the paper are Travis Collier, Mark Hanemaaijer, Parker Houston and Yoosook Lee, all at the Vector Genetics Laboratory. Funding was provided by the UC Irvine Malaria Initiative, the CDC and NIH.

As part of the multi-campus UC Irvine Malaria Initiative the UC Davis team is tasked with developing a strategy to move GEM from the laboratory to contained field trials at sites in Africa. A major part of this work is a description of the genetics of mosquito populations at putative sites.

Story Source:

Materials provided by University of California – Davis. Original written by Andy Fell. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Solving the puzzle of Mitchell disease

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

When a patient with puzzling neurological symptoms enrolled in the Undiagnosed Diseases Network, researchers led by Dr. Hugo J. Bellen were set on solving the mystery. The patient presented with an unidentified late-onset neurodegenerative disorder. The team named this new syndrome “Mitchell disease” in reference to the first patient to be diagnosed with this disorder and looked to identify its genetic basis.

“On comparing the patient’s and his parents’ DNA, the team identified a mutation in the patient that resulted in a single amino acid substitution (N237S) in the ACOX1 protein. This change was seen only in the patient and was not present in either of his parents’ DNA, indicating that the patient had a de novo, or new, mutation on this gene,’ said Bellen, professor at Baylor College of Medicine and investigator at the Jan and Dan Duncan Neurological Research Institute at Texas Children’s Hospital and also a Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigator. “With the help of the online gene-matching tool GeneMatcher, we found two more patients who had the same new mutation in the ACOX1 gene.”

All three patients, who ranged from 3 to 12 years old at the time of disease onset, had remarkably similar clinical features, including degeneration of peripheral nerves that caused a progressive loss of mobility and hearing. The three individuals had identical gene variants, a clear indication that ACOX1 dysfunction likely was the cause of the symptoms.

A medical mystery

The finding that an ACOX1 mutation was linked to Mitchell disease initially baffled the researchers. The only known ACOX1-related disorder described in the medical literature at that time presented earlier in infancy with seizures, severe cognitive decline, neuro-inflammation and accumulation of very-long-chain-fatty acids in plasma and, more importantly, was caused by the lack of the ACOX1 protein — none of which was true for these three patients.

“The brain has large amounts of lipids, which are critical for the proper functioning of the nervous system. Abnormal breakdown of lipids in the brain and peripheral nervous system is associated with several neurodegenerative diseases,” Bellen said.

The gene ACOX1 is involved in lipid breakdown. It produces an enzyme called Acyl-CoA oxidase 1 that initiates a series of reactions that break down very-long-chain-fatty acids in small intracellular organelles called peroxisomes.

Fruit flies help solve the medical mystery

To resolve this conundrum, the Bellen team turned to fruit flies. The first surprising discovery made by the lead author, Hyunglok Chung, was that the ACOX1 protein is abundant and critical for the maintenance of glia, cells that support neurons. This uncovered a previously unknown role of peroxisomes in glial cells and paved the way for further experiments.

To understand how ACOX1 variants affect the function of glia, they generated two mutant fly lines, the first one lacked both the copies of ACOX1 gene and the second, carried the substitution mutation (N237S) found in one of the ACOX1 genes in the Mitchell disease patients.

“Flies lacking ACOX1 mimicked the symptoms of ACOX1 deficiency in humans, including elevated levels of very-long-chain-fatty acids along with dramatic loss of glia and neurons and progressively impaired neuronal function. When we reduced the synthesis of very-long-chain-fatty acids in these flies by administering the drug bezafibrate, we observed significant improvement in lifespan, vision, motor coordination and neuronal function, implicating elevated levels of these lipids and their excessive accumulation in glia as an important contributor,” said Chung, postdoctoral fellow in the Bellen lab.

“It is remarkable how well bezafibrate suppressed the symptoms of ACOX1 deficiency, suggesting a new therapeutic avenue for patients with this condition,” Bellen said.

In contrast to the loss of ACOX1, the introduction of the single amino acid substitution (N237S) in ACOX1 gene resulted in a hyperactive ACOX1 protein. Typically, breakdown of very-long-chain-fatty acids by the enzymatic action of ACOX1 produces small amounts of highly reactive oxygen species, but glial cells quickly neutralize them. However, in Mitchell’s disease, hyperactive ACOX1 produces copious amounts of toxic reactive oxygen species, leading to the destruction of glia and their neighboring neurons.

The harmful effects due to hyperactive ACOX1 were potently reversed with the antioxidant N-acetyl cysteine amide (NACA). However, NACA did not suppress the lethality or toxic effects in flies that lacked ACOX1, a clear indication that the two diseases act via entirely different pathways and would need to be treated with two distinct therapeutic strategies.

“This study is a prime example of how combining UDN’s unique team science approach with power of fruit fly genetics is facilitating rapid and phenomenal progress in rare diseases research. We take on cases of patients with conditions never described before, uncover new diseases and find definitive molecular diagnosis for them. We make significant progress in unraveling the causes of these novel diseases and rapidly identify and test promising new treatment options,” Bellen said. “We have successfully identified more than 25 disease-causing genes within the past three years — a task that typically takes many years.”

Story Source:

Materials provided by Baylor College of Medicine. Original written by Ana María Rodríguez, Ph.D.. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Scents regulate fat storage without affecting eating behavior

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

Dr. Ayse Sena Mutlu, a postdoctoral fellow at Baylor’s Huffington Center On Aging, had an intriguing question. Is it possible to change the body’s fat storage without changing eating habits?

Working with the laboratory worm C. elegans, Mutlu and her colleagues conducted a broad screen to investigate whether neurons can actively send signals that, without affecting feeding habits, could alter lipid metabolism.

“When we found a connection with the sense of smell, we were very surprised. We expected a link with taste or related to eating,” said Mutlu, who works in the laboratory of Dr. Meng Wang, professor of molecular and human genetics, a member of the Huffington Center On Aging and a Howard Hughes Medical Institute investigator at Baylor.

How scents can affect fat storage

The connection between the sense of smell and fat metabolism is not new, but the underlying mechanisms are still not clear. Olfactory perception is complex and highly regulated, explained Mutlu.

“There are many scents in the environment that can be detected by specific olfactory neurons through specific receptors. Olfactory neurons relay the information to interneurons that interpret the information to command other neurons and peripheral tissues,” Mutlu said.

Olfactory perception in C. elegans is simpler than in larger organisms, such as humans, which helps researchers like Mutlu and her colleagues to study how olfaction regulates bodily processes. The laboratory worm has three pairs of olfactory neurons that detect a variety of airborne scents. “Some odors selectively activate or inhibit a single olfactory neuron, while others can stimulate a group of neurons,” Mutlu said.

The researchers tested several odors in C. elegans and discovered that only certain scents dynamically regulate fat mobilization by interacting with specific olfactory neurons through specific receptors. Using a laboratory method called optogenetics that uses light to activate or inhibit these neurons, the researchers were able to promote the loss or gain of fat storage, respectively. They also determined that the neurons act through a selective neural circuit and a neuroendocrine pathway to directly regulate fat metabolism.

“Our findings bring a new perspective on how lipid metabolism is regulated and may help understand why some people may be more resistant to metabolic problems while others are more vulnerable,” said Wang.

In addition, the findings are relevant to the observations that have been made between olfaction, fat metabolism and neurodegenerative diseases.

“For example, we know that patients with Alzheimer’s disease tend to have metabolic problems, Mutlu said. “Also, our study suggests a link between the scents each individual can perceive and his or her susceptibility to obesity.”

“Although more research is needed, it is possible that certain scents might trigger changes in fat metabolism resulting in weight loss,” Wang said. “We may have to watch not only what we eat, but what we smell.”

Story Source:

Materials provided by Baylor College of Medicine. Original written by Ana María Rodríguez, Ph.D.. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.

Climate-driven megadrought is emerging in western US, says study

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

With the western United States and northern Mexico suffering an ever-lengthening string of dry years starting in 2000, scientists have been warning for some time that climate change may be pushing the region toward an extreme long-term drought worse than any in recorded history. A new study says the time has arrived: a megadrought as bad or worse than anything even from known prehistory is very likely in progress, and warming climate is playing a key role. The study, based on modern weather observations, 1,200 years of tree-ring data and dozens of climate models, appears this week in the leading journal Science.

“Earlier studies were largely model projections of the future,” said lead author Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “We’re no longer looking at projections, but at where we are now. We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we’re on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts.”

Reliable modern observations date only to about 1900, but tree rings have allowed scientists to infer yearly soil moisture for centuries before humans began influencing climate. Among other things, previous research has tied catastrophic naturally driven droughts recorded in tree rings to upheavals among indigenous Medieval-era civilizations in the Southwest. The new study is the most up-to-date and comprehensive long-term analysis. It covers an area stretching across nine U.S. states from Oregon and Montana down through California and New Mexico, and part of northern Mexico.

Using rings from many thousands of trees, the researchers charted dozens of droughts across the region, starting in 800 AD. Four stand out as so-called megadroughts, with extreme aridity lasting decades: the late 800s, mid-1100s, the 1200s, and the late 1500s. After 1600, there were other droughts, but none on this scale.

The team then compared the ancient megadroughts to soil moisture records calculated from observed weather in the 19 years from 2000 to 2018. Their conclusion: as measured against the worst 19-year increments within the previous episodes, the current drought is already outdoing the three earliest ones. The fourth, which spanned 1575 to 1603, may have been the worst of all — but the difference is slight enough to be within the range of uncertainty. Furthermore, the current drought is affecting wider areas more consistently than any of the earlier ones — a fingerprint of global warming, say the researchers. All of the ancient droughts lasted longer than 19 years — the one that started in the 1200s ran nearly a century — but all began on a similar path to to what is showing up now, they say.

Nature drove the ancient droughts, and still plays a strong role today. A study last year led by Lamont’s Nathan Steiger showed that among other things, unusually cool periodic conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean (commonly called La Niña) during the previous megadroughts pushed storm tracks further north, and starved the region of precipitation. Such conditions, and possibly other natural factors, appear to have also cut precipitation in recent years. However, with global warming proceeding, the authors say that average temperatures since 2000 have been pushed 1.2 degrees C (2.2 F) above what they would have been otherwise. Because hotter air tends to hold more moisture, that moisture is being pulled from the ground. This has intensified drying of soils already starved of precipitation.

All told, the researchers say that rising temperatures are responsible for about half the pace and severity of the current drought. If this overall warming were subtracted from the equation, the current drought would rank as the 11th worst detected — bad, but nowhere near what it has developed into.

“It doesn’t matter if this is exactly the worst drought ever,” said coauthor Benjamin Cook, who is affiliated with Lamont and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies. “What matters is that it has been made much worse than it would have been because of climate change.” Since temperatures are projected to keep rising, it is likely the drought will continue for the foreseeable future; or fade briefly only to return, say the researchers.

“Because the background is getting warmer, the dice are increasingly loaded toward longer and more severe droughts,” said Williams. “We may get lucky, and natural variability will bring more precipitation for a while. But going forward, we’ll need more and more good luck to break out of drought, and less and less bad luck to go back into drought.” Williams said it is conceivable the region could stay arid for centuries. “That’s not my prediction right now, but it’s possible,” he said.

Lamont climatologist Richard Seager was one of the first to predict, in a 2007 paper, that climate change might eventually push the region into a more arid climate during the 21st century; he speculated at the time that the process might already be underway. By 2015, when 11 of the past 14 years had seen drought, Benjamin Cook led a followup study projecting that warming climate would cause the catastrophic natural droughts of prehistory to be repeated by the latter 21st century. A 2016 study coauthored by several Lamont scientist reinforced those findings. Now, says Cook, it looks like they may have underestimated. “It’s already happening,” he said.

The effects are palpable. The mighty reservoirs of Lake Mead and Lake Powell along the Colorado River, which supply agriculture around the region, have shrunk dramatically. Insect outbreaks are ravaging dried-out forests. Wildfires in California and across wider areas of the U.S. West are growing in area. While 2019 was a relatively wet year, leading to hope that things might be easing up, early indications show that 2020 is already on a track for resumed aridity.

“There is no reason to believe that the sort of natural variability documented in the paleoclimatic record will not continue into the future, but the difference is that droughts will occur under warmer temperatures,” said Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was not involved in the study. “These warmer conditions will exacerbate droughts, making them more severe, longer, and more widespread than they would have been otherwise.”

Angeline Pendergrass, a staff scientist at the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, said that she thinks it is too early to say whether the region is at the cusp of a true megadrought, because the study confirms that natural weather swings are still playing a strong role. That said, “even though natural variability will always play a large role in drought, climate change makes it worse,” she said.

Tucked into the researchers’ data: the 20th century was the wettest century in the entire 1200-year record. It was during that time that population boomed, and that has continued. “The 20th century gave us an overly optimistic view of how much water is potentially available,” said Cook. “It goes to show that studies like this are not just about ancient history. They’re about problems that are already here.”

The study was also coauthored by Edward Cook, Jason Smerdon, Kasey Bolles and Seung Baek, all of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory; John Abatzaglou of the University of Idaho; and Andrew Badger and Ben Livneh of the University of Colorado, Boulder.

Coronavirus: What is the risk to men over 50?

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

While most people will have mild symptoms and recover quickly, some are more prone to getting sick.

Health24.com | Don’t believe the hype: bogus products, coronavirus scams thrive

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

Can zinc help shorten a coronavirus infection? Will vitamin C or other supplements prevent it?

These claims and plenty more can be found on social media and internet sites, but be advised: There is no pill or treatment that can prevent or cure Covid right now.

“We want to think that there is a quick way to get rid of this. But there is not a product out there that will keep you from getting the coronavirus,” said Rebecca Dutch, a virologist with the University of Kentucky in Lexington.

The pandemic has spawned a wave of products claiming to protect you by boosting your immune system – a simple claim people think they understand, said retired psychiatrist Dr Stephen Barrett, who runs Quackwatch, a website that debunks pseudoscientific claims.

Immune system is complex

“They think, ‘If I can boost my immune system, I’ll be more resistant to the virus,’ but it’s just not that simple,” he said.

“The immune system is quite complex,” Barrett explained. “There’s not even a scientific process called strengthening or boosting the immune system.”

He agreed with Dutch: “There is no product you can take that will prevent or cure Covid,” he said.

Even a group representing supplement makers agreed. Two major industry groups – the Council for Responsible Nutrition and the American Herbal Products Association – recently asked stores selling dietary supplements to refuse to stock or sell any products that claim to treat, cure or prevent Covid-19.

“We are not aware of any clinical research studies that demonstrate the efficacy of using a dietary supplement specifically to prevent or to treat Covid-19,” the trade groups said in a statement.

They said consumers should report such products to the US Food and Drug Administration.

The FDA has already sent warning letters to a number of companies selling fraudulent Covid-19 products. The agency also cautions that there are no approved preventatives or treatments for Covid-19.

Believing in magic?

Given the expert consensus, why are people still buying and trying these products?

Barrett said people “believe what they hear the most” and there’s no organised effort to set the record straight.

“There’s no economic incentive to say, ‘This doesn’t work,'” he said. “There’s no money to be made rebutting false claims.” But there’s a lot of money to be made promoting those false claims, so that’s what people tend to hear over and over, Barrett added.

People also tend to believe something works once they try it, he said. Say, for example, that you’ve recently had colds that lasted about a week. You try a supplement that says it will shorten a cold. If your next cold lasts four days, you’ll think the supplement worked. But most illnesses are self-limiting, Barrett said. It might just be that you caught a virus that tends to last only a few days this time.

Dr Philip Muskin, a professor of psychiatry at Columbia University Medical Center in New York City, also points to the fear factor.

“People are scared and when you’re scared, your judgment may be impaired,” he said. “You just want a solution, and up comes a photo of a beautiful woman or man in a beautiful setting telling you that a certain herbal or vitamin supplement can help you.”

Even though you know it can’t be real, everyone wants to believe in magic, Muskin said.

Older adults more vulnerable

“Older adults are more often socially isolated and maybe a little lonelier, which opens them up to people who want to take advantage,” said Dr William Dale, director of the Center for Cancer and Aging at City of Hope in Los Angeles.

Older people also tend to be more trusting and use their phones more often than most, leaving them vulnerable to phone solicitations, he added.

If you suspect someone has tried to scam an older friend or relative, Dale recommends you ask them what they’ve been told, hear their concerns and then correct misinformation.

“Take them seriously. Don’t be dismissive. Take a kind approach. Remind people that right now, there are no cures for Covid. Try to reset the conversation,” he said.

One way to do this is by mentioning their medications. Ask if they have a good supply on hand or if they need to contact their doctor for refills. “Sometimes the easiest way is to have the conversation about medicines and then say, ‘Oh, this might interfere with your medication. You should ask your doctor if this is safe,'” Dale suggested.

What does help?

It also helps to remind older loved ones that people who don’t have Covid-19 symptoms can still transmit the disease and that physical distancing is important, Dale said.

All of the experts recommend washing your hands often – especially whenever you have been outdoors.

“Regular soap disrupts this virus,” Dutch said. “Any soap is OK, even if it’s not antibacterial. If you have access to a sink and soap, use that. Save your hand sanitiser to use when you’re out.”

Muskin and Dutch both emphasised the importance of staying healthy overall. Exercise, eat a balanced diet, get stress relief from things like meditation and do your best to get enough sleep.

Experts agree that it’s important to consider the source of any health information.

“We’re in an unprecedented time of ‘information’ coming in. Trying to decipher who is the best to listen to and sorting out what makes sense and what doesn’t is harder than ever,” Dale said.

Barrett recommends checking sources you know are reputable, such as the FDA, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and major universities’ websites.

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Your Most Daunting Open Loops

Posted on 16/04/2020 by Boris Clair

An open loop typically refers to an unfinished project, task, or assignment. Sometimes people will extend the definition to include their major goals as well.

I’ve been finding a lot of value in extending this concept to include anything that pops into my mind where I don’t feel that I’ve achieved sufficient closure. If my mind is dedicating some internal processing cycles to a thought pattern that isn’t aligned with what I’m doing in the moment, that’s a distraction. And many of those distractions come from unresolved open loops.

These open loops could be little things, like a past memory that pops up. Or they could be significant concerns, like trying to get clarity on the coronavirus situation.

So instead of just thinking of an open loop as an incomplete item on my to-do list, I think of it as any thought pattern that pulls my mind away from what I’m doing.

Resolving Open Loops

There are multiple ways to handle an open loop:

Fully complete it, so it’s 100% done.
Make a plan for how you’ll complete it.
Schedule on your calendar when you’ll plan it or complete it.
Push it down to a Someday / Maybe list to consider later, in which case you also need a routine for regularly reviewing that list, like once per calendar quarter.
Delegate or outsource it to someone else, in which case you still need to follow up to make sure they finish it, so it remains an open loop for you till they get it done.
Let it go if you can do that, which may include forgiveness, especially forgiving yourself.

When I extended my definition of open loops to include more than just action items, I found that these solutions generally applied as well. I just needed to be more creative in how I resolve different types of open loops.

Suppose I have a past memory that bugs or disturbs me. Maybe I have some trauma associated with it. That’s an unprocessed open loop. If I don’t resolve my feelings about the memory, it could continue disrupting me for years to come. Do I really want it to do that? Probably not. Is this a problem that can be solved? Yes. It’s a mental pattern, and mental patterns can be changed. Sometimes it takes a deep and serious effort to change an entrenched mental pattern, but as with many skills, the more you practice, the more you can lean on this skill when you need it. The Stature course in particular goes deep into these skills and practices.

One approach that almost universally fails with open loops is trying to resist them. If you try to resist a memory, that doesn’t work any better than trying to resist a project. The memory or the project will remain, patiently haunting you till you deal with it more proactively.

I’ve found that if I’m flexible and creative in my approach to processing just about any kind of open loop, I can bring it to resolution over time and feel that I’ve finally closed it. When the loop feels resolved and closed, my mind can relax a little more in that one area, and I’ve freed up some otherwise stuck mental energy.

Unresolved Open Loops

Here are some types of open loops that can be resolved if you invest enough in bringing them to closure:

Do you have an aligned morning routine that consistently gets you off to a strong start to each day? The lack of a good morning routine is an unresolved open loop. Same goes for a decent morning routine that’s inconsistently maintained.
Have you figured out how to consistently eat and exercise so that you feel good, have abundant energy, and don’t fight with your health habits? If not, that’s an open loop.
Do you have any chronic health conditions that are probably reversible? Do you know if they’re reversible or not? Have you done whatever it takes to fix them? This may require major lifestyle and habit changes. Is it possible though? If it’s possible to solve these problems and you haven’t solved them yet, that’s a significant open loop that could distract you. Imagine if you permanently solved these problems and could finally let them go for good. Alternatively, you could deeply welcome and accept them as-is. But if you still feel some resistance towards them, that’s an open loop.
Are you in a misaligned relationship? Or are you single and feeling misaligned with that? If you’re not feeling good about your relationship situation, that’s an open loop. It won’t go away on its own. It will just keep nagging you till you properly address it and finally solve it. Is this a solvable problem? Yes. You may need to do a ton of inner work, but many other people have done that, and they enjoy happy relationships as a result. Knowing that other people have already created situations that you desire could nag at you endlessly till you finally close this open loop for yourself.
How are you handling the current coronavirus situation? Are you able to handle the uncertainty regarding what will happen next? If not, then you haven’t processed the situation well enough yet. You may still need to do some reframing till you’ve come up with a flexible and adaptable strategy. If you’re feeling off balance, that’s an open loop. It’s possible to feel balanced and grounded amidst major changes and uncertainty.

Self-control

You may see a common pattern here. All of these require great self-control and self-discipline. There’s no getting around that.

Resisting the need for self-control is itself an open loop. If you try to fight the obviousness of this, the open loop will just keep staring at you. And you’ll keep spending more mental processing cycles thinking about it again and again. And again!

Another problem is that low self-control tends to create more open loops. If you don’t muster the resolve to close these open loops, they’ll eventually pile up, which can start to feel overwhelming. Then the temptation is to sink into constant self-distraction to avoid having to deal with them. A better solution is to recognize and admit the tremendous need to work on one’s self-control, and then train yourself to build that muscle.

Many open loops look smaller and less daunting when you build your self-control. The first step is just deciding that this matters to you and that you’ll need to invest in this for life.

Putting a good plan in place can help to quiet a pesky open loop, even if the plan isn’t very good and won’t actually work. But when you create a thorough plan that you truly believe can work, the effect is even stronger.

Our lives are filled with solvable problems that we haven’t actually solved, troublesome memories that we haven’t fully integrated, and relationship troubles that we haven’t fully forgiven or released. These are open loops.

A simple realization is that if you can develop better self-control, you can close more open loops because you’ll have more capacity to do so. But how do you build more self-control? You can build self-control by closing open loops.

Start by closing the easier open loops. Don’t just settle into busywork each day. Pick some open loops that you can fully close. Then close them. It’s like training with lighter weights before you move to heavier weights.

Closing Open Loops

This is how I like to flow through my workdays. I identify open loops that I’d like to close that day. Maybe I list a bunch of smaller open loops. Maybe I decide to tackle one big open loop. Or maybe I pick an open loop that’s a meaningful slice of a larger project. Then I prefer to work single-mindedly to close these loops one by one.

Having an article idea pop into my mind is an open loop. So to close that loop, I have to write and publish the article. I prefer to do that in one sitting when possible. I virtually never outline an article one day and then write and edit it the next day since that would leave an open loop overnight. If I’m going to give my attention to an open loop, I want to bring it to some form of closure before I move on to the next task or project.

It feels much more rewarding to me to close a few open loops during a day than it feels to chip away at a bunch of projects and not fully close anything. Driving tasks to full completion is often difficult and requires great tenacity sometimes, but nothing beats the feeling of getting to 100% done.

Processing the Coronavirus Open Loop

If you were reading my blog last month, you may have noticed that I focused intently on the coronavirus situation for a while, writing many articles about it. The virus introduced a major unresolved open loop to my life and to the lives of my readers, and I wanted to give it sufficient attention to fully process it until I could achieve some form of closure with it. Every day I tried to advance my understanding of the situation, make reasoned predictions, assess the risks, and make aligned decisions for how to proceed. I couldn’t just ignore that giant open loop and stick it on the back burner.

I found this extremely helpful. It allowed me to get up to speed quickly with the new reality. This helped me determine if I needed to make any course corrections or adaptations. For instance, I decided to drop the plan to do a new workshop in the Fall. There was too much uncertainty over the viability of that idea. So that was an open loop of uncertainty that I had to resolve and close. I can always add that project back when it becomes viable again, but I find it better to close that loop for now by taking it off my plate. That way I’m not dwelling on it in the back of my mind, and I can free up that mental energy for other projects.

Like many people, I also had to do some extra processing on Trump’s depths of lying, stupidity, incompetence, and utter ridiculousness in handling the virus situation. Pretty much every day, the news headlines is some form of, “Yup… Trump is still behaving like a toddler.” Sadly I’m not joking. I have to factor in how having a moron for a President could affect my life. That’s an open loop that takes some processing to resolve, so I don’t feel knocked off balance by his endless acts of idiocy. Interestingly, this actually lead me to feel more grateful and appreciative of sane, intelligent, and honest people.

Eventually I felt that I grasped the possibilities of the coronavirus situation well enough, and I’d done what I could to practice and promote the importance of social distancing early on (when it matters most). So this no longer felt like a major open loop in my life. While it’s still an ongoing and evolving situation, I’ve settled into a way of keeping up to date that feels balanced and doesn’t distract me while I’m working on other projects. Until the situation changes in some way I didn’t already factor in, I don’t feel that it needs as much direct personal attention anymore.

Growing Stronger

If you broaden your definition of open loops, what do you see? What still needs more processing to bring those open loops to full resolution? What thoughts and feelings still nag at you?

A good test is whether you feel chill about a situation. If you still feel some tension and your mind can’t relax, there’s more processing to be done to close the loop.

I find a lot of benefit in just asking: What would it really take to fully close this loop for the rest of my life?

Then I try to be deeply honest with myself. The answer may initially seem like it would take a Herculean effort, but it only seems so relative to my current strength. If I had Hercules’ strength, then a Herculean effort would seem pretty normal. Oh… it’s another Hydra… no problem! Then I see it as a character sculpting challenge to build the necessary strength, however long it takes.

This is my preferred way to frame persistent open loops that are extremely difficult to close. They’re character sculpting challenges, inviting me to grow into a smarter and more capable human being, so I can finally close them. If I don’t accept and commit to the growth challenge, I can never hope to close those open loops, and they’ll pester me for the rest of my life. Accepting the growth challenge is the wise choice then.

Even when it’s really difficult to do so, reaching the point of full closure of a persistent open loop can be so rewarding that it’s worth pursuing. The greatest reward is to experience the character you created in order to finally close those loops.

WellnessMaster

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Your Most Daunting Open Loops

Resolving Open Loops

Unresolved Open Loops

Self-control

Closing Open Loops

Processing the Coronavirus Open Loop

Growing Stronger