The UK’s chief medical adviser said they had to be confident which tests worked first.
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Health24.com | The other side of coronavirus – milder cases, recovery and getting back to health
The coronavirus pandemic has caused a worldwide shift in the way people live, placing many in self-imposed exile to prevent the spread of the contagion.
But it’s important to remember that four out of every five infected people will have mild symptoms, perhaps so mild as to not be noticeable, experts note.
“About 80% of people get a very mild illness and they recover uneventfully. That’s important to realise,” said Dr Robert Glatter, an emergency medicine physician with Lenox Hill Hospital in New York City.
Another 15% of people infected with coronavirus have more serious symptoms, and 5% develop life-threatening illness, experts say.
‘Of course I’m worried’
The actor Idris Elba is possibly the most famous mild Covid-19 case in the world. Elba tested positive for coronavirus after being exposed to another infected person, but says he did not have any symptoms.
Still, Elba has asthma, and in a live Twitter chat this week said he’s worried how the virus might affect him in the days ahead.
“Yes, of course I’m worried. I’m worried about having asthma and how that could make things complicated very quickly,” Elba said.
That’s not an insignificant concern. People with a minor case of Covid-19 will wrangle with mild symptoms for a week to 10 days, but their cases can worsen.
Dr Aaron Glatt, chair of medicine at Mount Sinai South Nassau in New York, said, “We have some general data that suggest people who get symptomatic for a short period of time, it can progress and they can be sicker for a week or even two weeks.”
The way the virus operates within the body gives most people a good chance of developing only mild illness, Glatter said.
The coronavirus tends to shed a lot early in Covid-19 infection, which “is actually good because it produces high levels of [immune system] antibody that are protective,” Glatter said.
Antibodies are protective
Glatter compared Covid-19 to SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome), which put the world in a panic in 2002–2003 and had a much higher death rate. That’s because the virus peaked later in the disease, after it had moved into the lungs.
“When you shed virus at high levels early on, you build antibodies and the antibodies are protective,” Glatter said. “With Covid-19, you shed much earlier in the first days of disease, not when severe lung disease has developed.”
Seattle resident Elizabeth Schneider falls into the 15% of people with more serious symptoms that were still manageable at home.
Schneider suspects she contracted the virus at a house party on 22 February, she told CNN. Within three days, she felt fatigued and suffered from body aches and headache. Her temperature rose as high as 103 degrees Fahrenheit (39.44 degrees Celsius).
Schneider tested positive for coronavirus, but recovered after staying home, resting and taking over-the-counter remedies.
“I think the big takeaway I want to tell everyone is: Please don’t panic,” Schneider said. “If you are healthy, if you are younger, if you take good care of yourself when you’re sick, you will recover, I believe. And I’m living proof of that.”
Two negative tests required
In general, older people are at higher risk for severe symptoms, but that’s not always the case, Glatt said. Chronic illnesses like obesity, lung problems and heart issues could make young people more likely to become sicker.
According to Glatt, “A healthy older person with good lungs and in good shape might be better off than a younger person with a heavy smoking history.”
People who have tested positive for Covid-19 should have two negative tests at least 24 hours apart before they’re considered no longer contagious, he said.
They shouldn’t assume that they now have immunity, however.
Ordinary coronavirus infections that cause the common cold do not produce lasting immunity, said Ira Longini, co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the Emerging Pathogens Institute at the University of Florida in Gainesville.
“You can be infected over and over, and we really don’t know for this novel coronavirus if that’s also true,” Longini said. “There is some anecdotal evidence already of re-infections, but we really don’t know.”
Many more mild cases
There’s also some strong concern that minor cases are driving the Covid-19 pandemic, because people aren’t sick enough to know they’re contagious.
About 86% of Covid-19 cases in China went undetected during the two-week ramp up of the epidemic in January, prior to the country implementing travel restrictions, researchers reported this week in the journal Science.
Mild cases are about half as infectious as those with more severe symptoms, said senior researcher Jeffrey Shaman, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, in New York City.
But because there are so many more mild cases, they “are driving the spread and growth of the outbreak”, Shaman said.
“The virus thrives off the ability for people to mingle and meet each other,” Shaman said. “Coming into contact unnecessarily at this point is something that people should really consider restricting.”
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Health24.com | What does self-quarantine to prevent the spread of coronavirus look like?
Many are choosing, or have been told to, self-quarantine to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.
Doctors at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston broke down what that is supposed to look like.
Isolation separates sick people from those who are not sick, while quarantine restricts the movement of people exposed to a contagious disease to monitor if they become sick, said Dr Luis Ostrosky, a professor of infectious diseases.
His colleague, Dr Susan Wootton, an infectious disease paediatrician, explains how to self-quarantine:
- Separate yourself from people and pets in your home.
- Stay home unless you are seeking medical attention.
- Call your doctor before visiting.
- Only wear a face mask if you are sick.
- Wash your hands and clean “high-touch” surfaces such as doorknobs, toilet handles and remote controls.
- Cover coughs and sneezes.
- Do not share personal household items.
- Monitor your symptoms.
- Check with healthcare providers before you stop quarantining.
It is especially important to monitor your health if you may have had close contact with a person who has been exposed to or developed Covid-19. Symptoms include fever, cough and trouble breathing.
“Infection control and prevention efforts by patients with Covid-19, their household members and their health care providers, in combination with contact tracing activities, are key to limiting the community spread of disease,” Wootton said in a university news release.
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High-efficiency laser for silicon chips
Transistors in computer chips work electrically, but data can be transmitted more quickly by using light. For this reason, researchers have long been looking for a way to integrate lasers directly in silicon chips. Scientists from Forschungszentrum Jülich have now come a step closer to achieving this. Together with researchers from Centre de Nanosciences et de Nanotechnologies (C2N) in Paris and the French company STMicroelectronics as well as CEA-LETI Grenoble, they have developed a compatible semiconductor laser made of germanium and tin, whose efficiency is comparable with conventional GaAs semiconductor lasers on Si.
Optical data transfer permits much higher data rates and ranges than current electronic processes while also using less energy. Computation and data centres, therefore, already default to optical fiber whenever cables exceed a length of about one metre. In future, optic solutions will be in demand for shorter and shorter distances due to increasing requirements, for example board to board or chip to chip data transfer. This applies particularly to artificial intelligence (AI) systems where large data volumes must be transferred within a large network in order to train the chip and the algorithms.
“The most crucial missing component is a cheap laser, which is necessary to achieve high data rates. An electrically pumped laser compatible with the silicon-based CMOS technology would be ideal,” explains Prof. Detlev Grützmacher, director at Forschungszentrum Jülich’s Peter Grünberg Institute (PGI-9). “Such a laser could then simply be shaped during the chip manufacturing process since the entire chip production is ultimately based on this technology.”
But there is one problem: pure silicon is an “indirect semiconductor” and, therefore, unsuitable as a laser material. Different materials are currently used for manufacturing lasers. Generally, III-V compound semiconductors are used instead. “Their crystal lattice, however, has a completely different structure than that of silicon, which is a group IV element. Laser components are currently manufactured externally and must be integrated subsequently, which makes the technology expensive,” explains Grützmacher.
In contrast, the new laser can be manufactured during the CMOS production process. It is based on germanium and tin, two group IV elements like silicon. Back in 2015, Jülich researchers showed that laser emission can be obtained in GeSn system. The decisive factor in this is the high tin content: back then, it amounted to 12 %, which is far above the solubility limit of 1 % .
“Pure germanium is, by its nature, an indirect semiconductor like silicon. The high concentration of tin is what turns it into a direct semiconductor for a laser source,” explains Dr. Dan Buca, working group leader at Jülich’s Peter Grünberg Institute (PGI-9).
The patented epitaxial growth process developed by Jülich is used by several research groups all over the world. By further increasing the tin concentration, lasers have already been made that work not only at low temperatures but also at 0°C.
“A high tin content, however, decreases the laser efficiency. The laser then requires a relatively high pumping power. At 12-14 % tin, we already need 100-300 kW/cm2,” explains Nils von den Driesch. “We thus tried to reduce the concentration of tin and compensate this by additionally stressing the material, which considerably improves the optical properties.”
For the new laser, the researchers reduced the tin content to approximately 5 % — and simultaneously decreased the necessary pumping power to 0.8 kW/cm2. This produces so little waste heat that this laser is the first group IV semiconductor laser that can be operated not only in a pulsed regime but also in a continuous working regime, i.e. as a “continuous-wave laser.”
“These values demonstrate that a germanium-tin laser is technologically feasible and that its efficiency matches that of conventional III-V semiconductor lasers grown on Si. This also brings much closer to an electrical pumped laser for industrial-application that works at room temperature,” explains institute head Grützmacher. The new laser is currently limited to optical excitation and low temperatures of about -140°C.
Such a laser would be interesting not only for optical data transfer but also for a variety of other applications since there are hardly any cheap alternatives for the corresponding wavelengths in the infrared range of 2-4 ?m. Potential applications range from infrared and night-vision systems all the way to gas sensors for monitoring the environment in climate research or even breath gases analyses for medical diagnosis.
Elections: Early warning system to fight disinformation online
Researchers at the University of Notre Dame are using artificial intelligence to develop an early warning system that will identify manipulated images, deepfake videos and disinformation online. The project is an effort to combat the rise of coordinated social media campaigns to incite violence, sew discord and threaten the integrity of democratic elections.
The scalable, automated system uses content-based image retrieval and applies computer vision-based techniques to root out political memes from multiple social networks.
“Memes are easy to create and even easier to share,” said Tim Weninger, associate professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Notre Dame. “When it comes to political memes, these can be used to help get out the vote, but they can also be used to spread inaccurate information and cause harm.”
Weninger, along with Walter Scheirer, an assistant professor in the Department of Computer Science and Engineering at Notre Dame, and members of the research team collected more than two million images and content from various sources on Twitter and Instagram related to the 2019 general election in Indonesia. The results of that election, in which the left-leaning, centrist incumbent garnered a majority vote over the conservative, populist candidate, sparked a wave of violent protests that left eight people dead and hundreds injured. Their study found both spontaneous and coordinated campaigns with the intent to influence the election and incite violence.
Those campaigns consisted of manipulated images exhibiting false claims and misrepresentation of incidents, logos belonging to legitimate news sources being used on fabricated news stories and memes created with the intent to provoke citizens and supporters of both parties.
While the ramifications of such campaigns were evident in the case of the Indonesian general election, the threat to democratic elections in the West already exists. The research team at Notre Dame, comprised of digital forensics experts and specialists in peace studies, said they are developing the system to flag manipulated content to prevent violence, and to warn journalists or election monitors of potential threats in real time.
The system, which is in the research and development phase, would be scalable to provide users with tailored options for monitoring content. While many challenges remain, such as determining an optimal means of scaling up data ingestion and processing for quick turnaround, Scheirer said the system is currently being evaluated for transition to operational use.
Development is not too far behind when it comes to the possibility of monitoring the 2020 general election in the United States, he said, and their team is already collecting relevant data.
“The disinformation age is here,” said Scheirer. “A deepfake replacing actors in a popular film might seem fun and lighthearted but imagine a video or a meme created for the sole purpose of pitting one world leader against another — saying words they didn’t actually say. Imagine how quickly that content could be shared and spread across platforms. Consider the consequences of those actions.”
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Materials provided by University of Notre Dame. Original written by Jessica Sieff. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
How fire causes office-building floors to collapse
Engineers and technicians at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) spent months meticulously recreating the long concrete floors supported by steel beams commonly found in high-rise office buildings, only to deliberately set the structures ablaze, destroying them in a fraction of the time it took to build them.
These carefully planned experiments produced cracked concrete slabs and contorted steel beams, but from the rubble arose a wealth of new insights into how real-world structures behave and can eventually fail in uncontrolled building fires. The results of the study, reported in the Journal of Structural Engineering, indicate that structures built to code are not always equipped to survive the forces induced by extreme shifts in temperature, but the data gained here could help researchers develop and validate new design tools and building codes that bolster fire safety.
In the United States, fireproofing materials are sprayed or painted onto weight-bearing beams or columns to slow their temperature rise in case of a fire. These materials, which are typically the only fire-resistance measures integrated into the skeletons of buildings, are required by building codes to be thick enough to delay structural deterioration for a certain number of hours. The responsibility of putting fires out or preventing them from spreading, however, typically falls on measures outside of the structural design, such as sprinkler systems and local fire departments.
The current approach to fire safety is typically sufficient to protect most buildings from collapse; however, there are rare situations in which fire protection systems and firefighting efforts are not enough. In dire circumstances like these, where fires rage in an uncontrolled fashion, flames can sometimes burn so hot that they overwhelm the defense of the fireproofing and seal the structure’s fate.
Just like the red liquid in a thermometer rises on a hot day, components of a building will undergo thermal elongation at elevated temperatures. But whereas the liquid has room to expand, steel beams, like those used to hold up floors in office buildings, are typically bound at their ends to support columns, which typically stay cool and maintain their shape for longer because of additional fireproofing and the reinforcement of the surrounding structure. With very little wiggle room, beams that heat up during fires could press up against their uncompromising boundaries, potentially breaking their connections and causing floors to collapse.
To better prepare buildings for worst-case scenarios, structural designs may need to account for the forces introduced by fires. But because the behavior of a burning building is complex, structural engineers need help predicting how their designs would hold up in an actual fire. Computer models that simulate building fires could provide invaluable guidance, but for those tools to be effective, a considerable amount of experimental data is needed first.
“The main purpose of this experiment is to develop data from realistic structure and fire conditions that can be used for developing or validating computational programs,” said Lisa Choe, NIST structural engineer and lead author of the study. “Then the programs can be expanded to different building configurations and used for design.”
Structures are seldom fire-tested at a realistic scale. Standard tests make use of laboratory furnaces that typically only accommodate individual components or small assemblies without the kinds of end connections that are used in buildings. Size is less of an issue for NIST, however. Within the National Fire Research Laboratory (NFRL), engineers can build and safely burn structures as tall as two stories and have a plethora of tools available to inspect the destruction.
Mimicking the design of floors from high-rise office buildings, Choe and her colleagues at the NFRL formed concrete slabs atop steel beams spanning 12.8 meters (42 feet) — a typical length in office buildings and also the longest fire-tested in the United States. The floors were suspended in the air, fastened at their ends to support columns either by double angle or shear tab connections, which are differently shaped but both commonplace.
To make the test conditions even more true to life, the engineers used a hydraulic system to pull down on the floors, simulating the weight of occupants and moveable objects like furniture. The beams were also coated in fireproofing material with a two-hour fire-resistance rating to meet building code requirements, Choe said.
Inside a fireproof compartment, three natural-gas fueled burners torched the floors from below, releasing heat as rapidly as a real building fire. While the compartment warmed up, various instruments measured the forces felt by the beams along with their deformation and temperature.
As temperatures within the compartment surpassed 1,000 C, the expanding beams, having been constrained between two support columns, began to buckle near their ends.
No floor came out of the fire tests scot-free, but some withstood more than others. After around one hour of heating, the shear tab connections of one beam — now having dipped down by more than two feet — fractured, leading to collapse. The beams with double angle connections, however, beat the heat and remained intact. That is, until they tumbled down hours after the furnaces were shut off, as the beams cooled and contracted back upwards, breaking the double angle connections.
While the study’s small sample size means conclusions about buildings in general could not be drawn, Choe and her team did find that the beams with double angle connections endured greater forces and deformations from the temperature changes than those with shear tab connections.
“The influence of the thermal elongation and contraction is something that we shouldn’t ignore for the design of steel structures exposed to fires. That’s the big message,” Choe said.
Toward the goal of more robust designs, these results provide invaluable data for researchers developing predictive fire models that could lay a foundation for buildings that resist not only burns, but the force of fire.
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Coronavirus: Dyson develops ventilators for NHS
Vacuum-maker aims to engineer and make a new type of ventilator, but others are focusing on existing designs.
Finding Comfort in Predictions

On March 11 I wrote the following notes in my personal journal:
The coronavirus is currently in outbreak mode around the world. There are 125,865 known infections worldwide, with almost 81K in China. In the USA there are already 1281 infections, 7 of them in Nevada. But that’s largely due to severe under-testing.
I think the USA is in for a big reckoning, especially with Donald Trump being a complete idiot in his response to this, clearly caring more about the economy and his own self-interests than about people’s lives.
The death rate of this virus seems to be about 3-4%, a lot deadlier than the flu. There’s a good chance I’ll get infected at some point, but I’ll probably be fine. Many people won’t be fine though.
Within a matter of weeks, hospitals will be overwhelmed with patients since about 15-20% of the infected require hospitalization – for about 2 weeks. When the virus kills, the average is about 17 days till death.
This is a big deal for the planet. It’s about to become a really big deal for the USA and for Las Vegas. I doubt that enough people see this yet though.
In that same entry, I also made the following predictions as a way of wrapping my head around what I thought could be coming up:
- The virus will spread quickly because the government response is severely lacking.
- It will hit Las Vegas hard, especially because the Mayor is behaving cluelessly, attacking the media and defending the economics of the city more than aligning with the truth.
- Within about 3 months, if not addressed massively and intelligently, around 1M Americans could be infected… and 100M within 4 months. But if serious countermeasures are taken soon, those numbers could be curtailed a lot.
- Hospitals will be overwhelmed with serious cases sometime within the next month or two.
- Many more live events and conferences of all sizes will be canceled, including sporting events, music festivals, and really anything with a substantial audience.
- Large parts of the country (and many other countries) will go on lockdown, prohibiting unnecessary travel or public gatherings.
- We won’t be able to go to our new fitness center at some point.
- Lots more people will wear face masks and gloves and practice social distancing.
- More and more people will get a clue about this with each passing week, realizing that this is real and serious.
- Many doctors and medical staff will become overworked, and many will get sick themselves. Some will die.
- Some people that I know will pass away this year, killed by this virus or its complications.
I often use my journal for writing down my personal predictions. I do this for a number of reasons:
- Predictions help me wrap my head around what’s happening. It’s a way to get aligned with truth.
- Sometimes my predictions are accurate, and sometimes they aren’t. Most of the time they’re mixed. By recording what I’m predicting, I can go back and review my predictions later to see how accurate I was and to ponder why. When I’m wrong, this helps me identify biases or mistakes and to accept that sometimes the future is unpredictable.
- Even when predictions seem disconcerting, they’re actually comforting. They help me relax into acceptance and surrender regarding some possible futures.
- Predictions are often actionable. If I gain some clarity about what may be coming up, I can better prepare for it, and I can help other people prepare too.
- Predictions help me separate truth from power. I like to take a step back and consider what’s unfolding, separating from this from concerns about what I might be able to do about it. This helps keep me away from the trap of denial. It’s so easy to fall into denial when we merge truth and power, refusing to even look at truths when we’re worried about whether or not we can handle them; that’s when we fudge the data to fool ourselves.
- Predictions help me discover when my mental models are good enough, too complicated, or too simplistic to be reliable and useful.
- Predictions give me a base for assigning meaning intelligently, so that I can preserve and even improve my relationship with reality without resisting reality.
I felt that my third prediction from the top list was inaccurate since it was too much of an off the cuff estimate. So four days ago I went over the actual growth rate of reported cases in the USA, and I made more a detailed prediction of how I thought these numbers would unfold.
I shared the following post in Conscious Growth Club’s forums on March 20:
The USA is currently reporting 16,796 coronavirus cases. Based on the growth curve I’m seeing, I predict we’ll pass 100,000 cases in about 1 week. And I predict that we’ll pass 1,000,000 cases in about 2 weeks (from today).
If we move to total countrywide lockdown immediately, we can slow this, and we must. Each day we wait is a huge mistake.
Note that 1 week ago we were at 2247 cases, and 2 weeks ago we were at 319 cases.
Where we are today is still early, early, early game for the virus. If we don’t lock down right away, we’re looking at tens of millions of infected within a month.
Here’s a shorter prediction: I predict that we’ll pass 50,000 reported cases for the USA in just 4 days, sometime on Tuesday, March 24. This could happen sooner though if there’s a significant increase in testing.
Here’s the formula I’m using:
Infected on Day N = (Infected today) x e^( 0.288 x N )
So if we use today as the baseline, then this becomes:
Infected on Day N = 16,796 x e ^ ( 0.288 x N )
Hence our infected for the days ahead:
16,796 (today)
22,402
29,879
39,851
53,151
70,891
94,551
126,108 (March 27)
…
946,850 (April 3)
1,262,868 (April 4)You can also plug in negative numbers for N to go backwards in time, which will show you that this tracks the historical data with decent accuracy.
This formula will be more accurate when the numbers of infected are still low relative to the total population. And of course a total lockdown can slow it down significantly.
Also note that these numbers work only for the USA since the growth rate for other countries is different. I think the UK rate is really close to ours though, so if you want to try some projections there, you could potentially use the same formula.
It’s been noted that the death rate may be more reliable for predictions than the reported infections, and I agree that’s true. I did this mainly as an exercise to help wrap my mind around what could be coming up.
So far the first three predictions were right on target, and we’re set to reach today’s prediction of passing 53,151 cases as predicted. At the time of writing this, we’re at 50,860.
While there may be a certain morbidness to this practice under the circumstances, I still find it useful and even comforting. It helps me see what’s coming up, so I can mentally and emotionally prepare for it as best I can. This includes going into personal lockdown two weeks ago, mainly to reduce the risk of further spreading the infection.
Sometimes I do this sort of practice in business. I make predictions for the months or years ahead based on trends that I can see today. Many people are doing this now by looking for business opportunities within the current crisis. While I do think it’s possible to take this too far, such as by buying hand sanitizer or medical masks and then reselling them for more, others are looking to provide genuine value in ways that people would appreciate during this time.
For instance, we can predict that many people will be spending more time at home in the weeks ahead. So they’ll be doing more cooking than usual since they won’t be going out to eat. So there will likely be extra opportunities for people teaching online cooking classes. Moreover, since veganism has been trending upwards as well, the combo of veganism and cooking classes could be especially good. Many people are free of the social influences that could otherwise prevent them from making such a lifestyle shift, so I would expect that a lot more people will experiment with veganism and vegan meals during this time. The opportunity is there. The time is there. And the objections are significantly reduced for many people.
I’ll make some current predictions regarding the coronavirus situation:
- Veganism will increase during lockdown at a faster rate than it was previously increasing. More people will have time to make this kind of lifestyle change. More people are growing concerned about their health and immunity. And more people will have time to research this online.
- Within 30 days, India will have the most coronavirus deaths of any country in the world. They’re currently ranked 31 with only 10 deaths right now. Italy, China, and Spain are 1, 2, and 3 right now. Partly I’m basing this prediction on India’s population size and population density, partly on their healthcare system, partly on their culture, and partly on their government.
- Some well-known celebrities will die from coronavirus in the next 30 days, and there will be news stories about each one.
- Someone I know personally will pass away from coronavirus by the end of May, possibly by the end of April.
- The Vegas Strip casinos will still be closed 30 days from now. (This is longer than the planned closure.)
- The USA will have rolling waves of coronavirus infections and deaths surging in different cities and states at different times throughout the year. Some individual states’ lockdowns will suppress it locally for a while, and they’ll eventually get it under control, but not long after they ease up their restrictions, they’ll have to deal with other waves and fresh surges, especially as people travel from other states and countries and bring the infections right back in. The countrywide response will be inconsistent for a while, a patchwork of different states applying different strategies.
- Among Democrats and Republicans, the virus will infect and kill more Democrats first because it’s spreading in the bigger cities faster and sooner, and those places tend to have more Democrats. But in the long run, it will kill a higher percentage of Republicans as the infection inevitably spreads to more rural areas. Those rural areas typically have worse healthcare than the bigger cities, especially with respect to ICU beds, ventilators, and transit time to hospitals with ICU beds. Republicans tend to be older, and the virus is more deadly for older people. Women lean more Democrat than men, and the virus is much deadlier for men. Polling has shown that a much higher percentage of Republicans still don’t take the virus seriously and aren’t practicing social distancing, so it’s more likely to decimate their communities when it arrives. When you add it all up, there are a lot of factors suggesting that COVID-19 will be more deadly for Republicans than Democrats. One advantage for Republicans is that many Republican bulwark states will see this virus surge later in their communities, but if they’re wasting time on denial, that’s going to whittle away their head start and could negate this advantage.
- Some lawyers will see a booming business in coronavirus related lawsuits. I expect there will be lots of lawsuits against businesses like Amazon or Costco as some of their employees get infected and die due to work-related activities. I imagine that Fox News will likely get seriously sued over this as well.
Time will tell. Under the circumstances, I would truly love to be wrong about the above.
What are your predictions about what’s coming up? You don’t have to share them, but I encourage you to just make some predictions for yourself in your own private journal. It can help you come to terms with your own thinking.




