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Analysis: Ignore The Tory Spin, The By-Election Results Are A Disaster For Boris Johnson

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Lord Frost is very prominent these days, isn’t he?

The man responsible for negotiating Brexit, who later quit because he didn’t think the government was Tory enough, seems to be everywhere.

Yesterday he delivered a speech about how Brexit was a roaring success.

Sticking with the far-fetched theme, this morning

It’s important to cut through the noise and spin on the Wakefield and Tiverton results.

Both are terrible for @Conservatives.

Neither is particularly good for @labour or @LibDems.

Why? (1/4)

— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) June 24, 2022 ” target=”_blank” class=” js-entry-link cet-internal-link” data-vars-item-name=”he opined” data-vars-item-type=”text” data-vars-unit-name=”62b58e1be4b06594c1e2bddf” data-vars-unit-type=”buzz_body” data-vars-target-content-id=”https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/

” data-vars-target-content-type=”feed” data-vars-type=”web_internal_link” data-vars-subunit-name=”article_body” data-vars-subunit-type=”component” data-vars-position-in-subunit=”0″>he opined that last night’s by-election results were “not particularly good” for Labour and the Lib Dems.

Yes, you read that correctly. The two by-elections – which saw the Tories comfortably lose to Labour in Wakefield and be humiliated by the Lib Dems in Tiverton and Honiton – were actually underwhelming for the victors.

Try telling that to Lib Dem leader Ed Davey and his new MP Richard Foord, who celebrated their result by declaring it was “time to show Boris the door” by, er, standing next to a door.

To be fair, Lord Frost concede that the results were also “terrible” for his own party.

But he said an analysis of the results showed that the combined Lab/Lib vote share only went up marginally in Devon and actually fell in west Yorkshire.

The real story of the night, he insisted, was that traditional Tory voters opted to stay at home. “We as Conservatives must decide why that is, and what we do about it,” he added, in a less-than-subtle hint that it may well be time to give Johnson the heave-ho.

Of course, Lord Frost wasn’t the only Tory trying to rain on the Labour and Lib Dem parades.

The heroic spin coming out of CCHQ was that history shows that Tory governments lose by-elections but then go on to win the subsequent by-elections.

Even the resignation of party chairman Oliver Dowden failed to persuade them that things in the Conservative garden are far from rosey.

But what that thesis fails to acknowledge is that after 1992, the Tories lost no fewer than eight by-elections before going on to lose by a landslide to Tony Blair’s New Labour in 1997.

It also ignores the fact that in Tiverton and Honiton, the Lib Dems came from 27,000 votes behind the Tories in 2019 to win by more than 6,000.

And while Labour’s performance in Wakefield didn’t trouble the political Richter scale, if they repeated it across the country, it would be enough to send Keir Starmer into Number 10.

Senior Conservatives have an awful lot of thinking to do over the coming weekend. It would help if they started by dealing in reality, rather than fantasy.

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Boris Johnson Says He Thinks Ukraine ‘Can And Should’ Host Eurovision In 2023

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Boris Johnson has said Ukraine should be given the opportunity to host next year’s Eurovision Song Contest, as organisers confirmed that they were beginning discussions about holding the event in the UK.

Last month, Ukrainian entry Kalush Orchestra stormed ahead at Eurovision, with the British representative Sam Ryder finishing in a respectable second place.

Speculation soon began about whether the competition would be able to take place in Ukraine in 2022, amid the ongoing Russian invasion.

On Friday, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) said in a public statement that they had conducted a “full assessment and feasibility study” with Ukrainian state broadcaster UA:PBC.

However, it concluded that after “exploring all scenarios” with the network, they shared “their sadness and disappointment that next year’s Contest cannot be held in Ukraine”.

“As a result of this decision, in accordance with the rules and to ensure the continuity of the event, the EBU will now begin discussions with the BBC, as this year’s runner-up, to potentially host the 2023 Eurovision Song Contest in the United Kingdom,” they added.

While a No.10 spokesperson previously insisted they “welcomed” the idea of hosting Eurovision in the UK, Johnson claimed on Saturday morning that he’d like to see the event take place in Ukraine.

Speaking to reporters shortly after returning from an unannounced visit to Kyiv, Johnson explained: “I have just been to Kyiv. I won’t say it is completely jiving and buzzing and popping but it is far, far more lively. People are much more confident. People are out in the streets eating in cafes and restaurants in a way that they weren’t even few weeks ago.

“The Ukrainians won the Eurovision Song Contest. I know we had a fantastic entry, I know we came second and I’d love it to be in this country. But the fact is that they won and they deserve to have it.”

He added: “I believe that they can have it and I believe that they should have it. I believe Kyiv or any other safe Ukrainian city would be a fantastic place to have it.”

Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson

Leon Neal via Getty Images

Following the EBU’s statement, a representative for the Ukrainian broadcaster claimed they’d been “denied the right” to host the contest and called for negotiations on a new location to be put on hold.

“We are disappointed with this decision of the EBU,” they said. “During this month, a large number of people in Ukraine have thrown all their efforts to fulfil the conditions for holding Eurovision in our country. Security is, of course, our first priority.

“The team of UA:PBC, state and local authorities did a thorough job and offered different options. It is a pity to see such an unappealable statement, therefore, we ask our partners to hold further negotiations.”

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said last month he wanted to see the 2023 event going ahead in Ukraine, comments which were echoed by the Kalush Orchestra.

Since debuting in the competition in 2003, Ukraine has racked up three wins, with Kyiv consequently hosting the Eurovision live final in both 2005 and 2017.

This article has been updated to include a comment from UA:PBC.

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‘Extremely Concerning’ No Impact Assessment Carried Out On Right To Buy Extension

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A Labour MP today said it was “extremely concerning” that a full impact assessment has not been carried out on Boris Johnson’s right to buy extension.

Just days after surviving a bruising confidence vote, Johnson attempted to reset his leadership with a speech announcing a new housing policy in Blackpool.

It included an extension of the right-to-buy scheme to people on low incomes who rent their homes from housing associations.

The prime minister argued the £30 billion currently spent on housing benefit should instead be used to help people secure and pay for mortgages on their own home.

However, the secretary of state Michael Gove has admitted that they did not conduct a “full” impact assessment before it was announced.

Asked if an assessment of the impact on social housing stock had been carried out, Gove told MPs on the housing committee: “We haven’t conducted a full equalities impact assessment yet. We will do, as ever, when we bring forward policy.

“The prime minister explained last Thursday on the basis of the pilot – there had been a full evaluation of that pilot – we felt it was now appropriate to roll it out nationally.”

The senior cabinet minister suggested a “full impact assessment” of the policy could not be done until all the details of the policy are “furnished”.

Labour MP Ian Byrne, among those who quizzed Gove yesterday, told HuffPost UK: “The admittance by the secretary of state regarding the absence of an impact assessment on social housing with his new right to buy policy announcement is extremely concerning.

“We need a real strategy to deal with the lack of housing in our communities not a reheated Thatcher policy which has contributed hugely to the housing crisis we face, by a desperate PM searching for positive headlines with his core supporters.”

The Sunday Times reported that the policy caused “heated rows” with Gove who privately accused Downing Street of “bouncing” the policy before it was ready.

The newspaper reported that officials had not undertaken an impact assessment on how it will affect social housing stock, or how many new homes will be needed to replace those sold off and that the Treasury was refusing to provide extra funds.

During the committee hearing yesterday, Gove insisted the government would ensure housing associations do not “see detriment to their balance sheets” as a result of the policy.

But asked where the funds would come from, he replied: “From across government. We’ll be saying more about how we propose to ensure we have the funding necessary in order to deliver the programme.”

He said the Treasury had agreed it will be funded, adding: “I think we’ll have to say watch this space.”

Bob Kerslake, former head of the civil service, wrote in the Guardian: “The paucity of detail in the current announcement suggests it is still at the drawing-board stage. It should stay there.”

A spokesperson from the department for levelling up said: “Right to buy has helped nearly two million council tenants realise their dream of home ownership, and we want housing association tenants to have the same opportunity.

“As the prime minister stated, there will be a one-for-one replacement of each social housing property sold.

“We will work with the sector on the design of the scheme, and will announce more details in due course.”

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Minister Insists No Tories In His Seat Have Criticised Boris Johnson And People Are Sceptical

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A cabinet minister has been ridiculed after he claimed no Conservatives in his constituency are critical of Boris Johnson.

Brandon Lewis said Tories in Great Yarmouth are “in full support” of the prime minister, despite 148 of his own MPs voting to remove him from office.

The PM has seen his personal approval ratings plummet in recent months as a result of the partygate scandal.

But appearing on the BBC’s Sunday Morning programme, the Northern Ireland secretary insisted Johnson remained popular throughout the country.

He said: “In 2019 people came out and voted for the prime minister, gave him an overwhelming mandate, which followed the mandate the Conservative Party gave him a few months earlier.

“He is somebody who consistently does well and wins elections and I’ve got to say, my constituents, my mailbox, is very clear that support is there for the prime minister.”

Presenter Sophie Raworth asked: “You don’t get criticism in your mailbox about the prime minister?”

Lewis replied: “Genuinely, the criticism I’ve had in my mailbox has been people I know are Labour supporters or are Labour activists in my constituency. What I’ve had generally on doorsteps and in my mailbox, and elsewhere in the country, is people want to see us getting on delivering for people and that’s what the prime minister is focused on.

I can only talk for my constituency – I’ve had people in full support of the prime minister. And actually, even today I’ve had supportive messages from the chairman of the Conservatives in Northern Ireland around the work the prime minister’s doing and we should get on with the job.”

The exchange was met with incredulity on social media.

Lewis had earlier insisted that legislation being introduced tomorrow by the government to over-ride parts of the Northern Ireland protocol will not break international law.

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Boris Johnson Is Doing A Good Job As Prime Minister, Says Michael Gove

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Boris Johnson is doing “a good job” as prime minister, according to Michael Gove – despite nearly 150 of his own MPs voting to get rid of him.

The levelling up secretary said he had “enthusiastically” voted for the prime minister in Monday night’s vote of confidence.

And he insisted he had “made a mistake” during the 2016 Tory leadership contest when he claimed Johnson did not have the necessary skills to lead the country.

Gove had initially been part of Johnson’s campaign team, but pulled out in order to run for the leadership himself.

He said at the time: “I came in the last few days, reluctantly and firmly, to the conclusion that while Boris has great attributes he was not capable of uniting that team and leading the party and the country in the way that I would have hoped.”

The PM survived an attempt to kick him out of Number 10 by his own parliamentary colleagues when he won Monday’s confidence vote by 211 to 148.

But the scale of the rebellion means he remains under huge pressure to turn around the Conservatives’ fortunes.

Asked on Sky News whether he had voted for the PM, Gove said: “Enthusiastically, yes.

“I made a mistake in 2016, a misjudgment. If you’ve been in politics for a little while, as I have been, then there are always mistakes that you can look back on.

“But, no, I think the prime minister is doing a good job.”

When asked whether he would run against Johnson again in a future leadership contest, Gove said: “Oh God, no.”

He added: “I can understand why some of my MP colleagues have concerns and I think it’s important that over the course of the next two years that we demonstrate that the Government is focused on delivering for the people across the United Kingdom.”

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It’s Inevitable Some Ministers Secretly Voted Against Boris Johnson, Tory MP Says

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A Tory MP today admitted it was “inevitable” that some ministers voted against Boris Johnson in last night’s confidence vote.

Ben Bradley, Conservative MP for Mansfield, said the result suggested some MPs on the government payroll voted to oust the prime minister.

The PM won a confidence vote in his leadership by 211 to 148 but it means more than 40 per cent of his MPs want him gone.

Bradley, who backs the PM, said Johnson knew he never had the “unanimous support” of Tory MPs because that is the nature of broad church political parties.

When it was put to him that 75 per cent of Tory backbenchers did not vote for the PM, Bradley told Sky News: “That’s guesswork really, it’s impossible to know who – payroll or non-payroll – voted in which particular way.”

Asked if he thought some ministers or cabinet members would have voted to get rid of the prime minister, he replied: “I think when you look at the numbers, that’s inevitable, in reality.

“But obviously it’s a secret ballot and we’ll probably never know the exact kind of divide there.”

Badly wounded, Johnson used a cabinet meeting on Tuesday morning to insist the government was getting “on with the job”.

Allies have rallied round him, but former Tory leader Lord Hague said “the damage done to his premiership is severe” and he should quit rather than prolong the agony.

The scale of the opposition was greater than that seen in 2018 when Theresa May faced a confidence vote. She was ultimately forced out within months.

Johnson faces further tests with tricky by-elections on June 23 in Wakefield, West Yorkshire, and Tiverton and Honiton in Devon.

Labour will try to heap further pressure on Johnson by asking MPs to vote on Tuesday to adopt a package of recommendations put forward by a sleaze watchdog aimed at improving standards in Westminster.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are pushing for a Commons confidence vote in the PM as a whole after Johnson survived the Tory process, although there is no date fixed for the move and it is unlikely to be successful.

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Boris Johnson Survives Vote Of No Confidence. What Next?

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Boris Johnson’s authority appears to be hugely damaged after 41% of Conservative MPs voted against continuing his leadership on Monday night.

While this means the prime minister did secure just enough votes to stay on in No.10, as 211 Tories claimed they still had confidence in him compared to 148 who did not, the blow to his reputation could be unrecoverable at this stage.

So what next for Johnson? Having repeatedly defied the odds in the past, pundits believe he’s unlikely to step down now.

Despite the exceptionally narrow win, he hailed the result as “decisive” and said it allowed the government to “move on” – although that is improbable, too.

Here’s a breakdown of what could follow as the Tory turmoil rumbles on.

Another vote

The current party rules don’t allow for more than one effort to oust a leader in the space of 12 months.

When Tory MPs botched an attempt to get rid of Theresa May in December 2018, they ultimately had to wait until she quit June 2019.

However, the rules can be changed at the stroke of a pen by the 1922 committee – and there have been two recent, if unsuccessful, attempts to give Tory MPs another shot sooner.

In April 2019, MPs demanded the party cuts the one-year rule to six months, and a similar attempt in January – as confidence in Johnson was draining – was also thwarted. Under the plans the threshold for triggering a second ballot would have doubled.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, leader of the 1922 committee Sir Graham Brady did admit that it was “technically” possible for the one-year grace period rule to be altered.

Government reshuffle

Johnson could attempt to reassert himself by rewarding his loyal allies with new jobs and punishing those suspected of voting against him.

A No.10 source hinted that this could be an option when speaking to POLITICO’s Playbook, but admitted: “We haven’t had that conversation yet.”

Further reports even suggest MPs who were on the fence were promised roles in government to seal the deal, and that a rejig could come within a matter of days with the less enthusiastic ministers being cut out.

Alternatively, ministers who no longer back Johnson could choose to get out of the job themselves by resigning, especially as the chorus of top Tories – such as former Conservative leader William Hague – wanting the PM out is only getting louder.

Leader of the Lib Dems Sir Ed Davey even called for Tory MPs who “care about integrity and decency” to resign the whip and sit as an independent, although no-one in the Tory ranks has hinted at doing such just yet.

By-elections

The next date for the diary is June 23, which will see two by-elections on the same day. Wakefield in Yorkshire and Tiverton and Honiton in Devon. Both are currently held by the Conservatives, but the party risks losing Tiverton to the Lib Dems and Wakefield to Labour.

A loss in Wakefield would not be ideal given its position in the red wall, but it is probably expected. However, losing Tiverton, which has a Tory majority of 24,239, to the Lib Dems, could scare a critical mass of Conservative MPs into acting against the PM.

Double trouble on June 23 – and a sense from the electorate that the next general would be disastrous for the Tories – could be the trigger for Cabinet ministers to move. This is what did for Thatcher when “big beast” Michael Heseltine launched another leadership challenge in November 1990.

It’s worth remembering that the disastrous May local elections were not enough to shake Johnson from his post, even though the Tories lost around 500 council seats in total.

Parliamentary inquiry

Let’s not forget partygate is not “over”.

MPs on the Commons privileges committee are still investigating whether Johnson misled parliament during his explanations of rule-breaking parties during lockdown.

Despite defying calls to quit after the Sue Gray report and denying that he misled the Commons, if the committee finds him in contempt of parliament, it could recommend he is forced to apologise, suspended from the Commons, or even expelled. Any sanction would need to be approved in a vote by all MPs.

But Johnson has changed the rules so ministers will not automatically lose their jobs if they breach the ministerial code, including himself.

A refreshed government policy statement – published just two days after the Gray report – said it was “disproportionate” to expect ministers to resign or face the sack for “minor” violations of the code’s provisions.

An early general election

A snap vote is unlikely, but still an option if Johnson feels he can get a fresh mandate from the country. It may his last roll of the dice if Tory pressure builds and senior ministers start to call for him to go.

The next general election does not have to happen until January 2025.

Johnson insisted in the immediate aftermath of the vote that he is “certainly not interested in snap elections”, and pushed instead for the government to “move on”.

But bizarrely, the prime minister also claimed that he now had “a far bigger mandate from my own parliamentary colleagues than I had in 2019”.

The snap general election he called two and a half years ago to consolidate his new position in No.10 saw 365 Tories elected.

This was a landslide majority – and a far cry from the 211 MPs (59% of the total parliamentary party) who voted in favour of keeping him in Downing Street on Monday.

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Tory MPs Trigger No Confidence Vote In Boris Johnson’s Leadership

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Boris Johnson is on the verge of being ousted as Conservative Party leader and prime minister, after the number of Tory MPs demanding he resign reached the threshold for a vote of no confidence.

Chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee Sir Graham Brady has announced that 54 or more Tory MPs have requested a vote of confidence in the PM, triggering a leadership vote.

Tory MPs will vote this evening between 6pm and 8pm on whether they want Johnson to remain.

While plenty of Westminster insiders predict Johnson will survive the vote, the fact it has been called is damaging for the prime minister.

Brady said in a statement: “The threshold of 15 per cent of the parliamentary party seeking a vote of confidence in the leader of the Conservative Party has been exceeded.

Sir Graham Brady making the announcement to camera
Sir Graham Brady making the announcement to camera

“In accordance with the rules, a ballot will be held between 6pm and 8pm today Monday June 6 — details to be confirmed.

“The votes will be counted immediately afterwards. An announcement will be made at a time to be advised. Arrangements for the announcement will be released later today.”

Speaking to journalists, Brady suggested some MPs had post dated their letters so the vote did not overshadow the Queen’s jubilee celebrations.

It comes after former minister Jesse Norman became the latest Tory MP to announce that he has submitted a letter calling for a confidence vote in Johnson.

Norman, the MP for Hereford and South Herefordshire, said Johnson had presided over “a culture of casual law-breaking” in No.10 and that his claim to be vindicated by the Sue Gray report was “grotesque”.

In order to oust him, 180 MPs would have to vote against Johnson in the confidence vote.

However, the odds are in the PM’s favour with around 140 MPs on the “payroll” alone including ministers and aides.

Cabinet ministers have been lining up to declare their support for the prime minister.

Foreign secretary Liz Truss tweeted: “The prime minister has my 100 per cent backing in today’s vote and I strongly encourage colleagues to support him.

“He has delivered on covid recovery and supporting Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression. He has apologised for mistakes made. We must now focus on economic growth.”

Levelling up secretary Michael Gove added: “I’ll be voting for Boris this evening. The PM got the big decisions right on Brexit and Covid.

“We need to focus now on defending Ukraine, driving levelling-up and generating growth. We need to move past this moment and unite behind Boris to meet these challenges.”

Conservative MP Michael Fabricant said he thinks Johnson will win the vote no of confidence on Monday evening.

He told Times Radio: “I think he is going to win. I think that something like two-thirds of the party will vote to support him and I really do wonder why it’s happening at this time.”

A No.10 spokesperson said:“Tonight is a chance to end months of speculation and allow the government to draw a line and move on, delivering on the people’s priorities.

“The PM welcomes the opportunity to make his case to MPs and will remind them that when they’re united and focused on the issues that matter to voters there is no more formidable political force.”

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Senior Tories Rush To Defend Johnson As Confidence Vote Looms

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Boris Johnson was publicly supported by top Tories on Monday morning shortly before it was confirmed that a confidence vote in his leadership was going ahead tonight.

Top backbencher Sir Graham Brady announced he had received at least 54 letters of no confidence from Tory MPs, meaning the whole parliamentary Conservative Party will vote on Johnson’s future tonight.

But speaking to broadcasters on Monday, health secretary Sajid Javid said he was not aware of any leaders who had 100% backing among their parties, and that is not “unusual”.

The health secretary maintained that Johnson has delivered since being elected – including Brexit and the Covid vaccination programme.

He said the 14 million who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 makes them one of the “most successful parties in Western Europe”.

Just half an hour before it was confirmed, he then went on to tell BBC Breakfast that he thought it was “likely” such a vote of no confidence would go ahead – although he didn’t think the country needed one.

Addressing partygate – and the hit it has had on Johnson’s popularity – Javid claimed that he’s “still upset when I think about those things”, but suggested it was time to move forward.

“What the country wants is the government to get on with the job at hand,” the cabinet minister said.

The health secretary also told Sky News that the prime minister will still “fight and stand his corner with a very strong case”, if push comes to shove and that he would be supporting him.

He was not the only person to publicly back the prime minister ahead of Sir Graham’s announcement on Monday.

Writing for Conservative Home, chief of staff for No.10, Steve Barclay, pleaded for the Tories to stay united under Johnson.

He said: “As we return to Westminster today, the Conservative parliamentary party faces a choice: we can focus on delivering the policies needed to meet the challenges faced by those communities – and of people across the whole United Kingdom.

“Or we can choose to waste time and energy looking backwards and inwards, talking to ourselves about ourselves.

“The problems we face aren’t easy to solve. Democracies around the world are all currently facing similar challenges.

“But under Boris Johnson’s leadership, our plan for jobs shows how we are navigated through these global challenges.

“To disrupt that progress now would be inexcusable to many who lent their vote to us for the first time at the last general election, and who want to see our prime minister deliver the changes promised for their communities.”

Although speculation over Johnson’s future was growing last week, concern among Tory ranks seems to have soared over the bank holiday after the prime minister and his wife were greeted with a wall of boos when arriving at an event to celebrate the Platinum Jubilee.

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Boris Johnson Was Also Cheered By Jubilee Crowds, Grant Shapps Has Insisted

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Boris Johnson and his wife were cheered as well as booed by crowds as they attended a Jubilee church service for the Queen, Grant Shapps has insisted.

The transport secretary clashed with the BBC’s Sophie Raworth after she asked him why the prime minister and Carrie Johnson were jeered by the public.

“There were also people cheering and you’re not asking why they did that,” Shapps said.

Television footage showed the PM and his wife clearly being booed as they entered and left the national service of thanksgiving for the Queen at St. Paul’s Cathedral on Friday.

Culture secretary Nadine Dorries, a Johnson loyalist, leapt to the PM’s defence by insisting there were “far, far more cheers” for the couple – prompting a wave of online mockery.

Appearing on the BBC’s Sunday Morning programme, Shapps also attempted to downplay the extent of public opposition to his boss.

He said: “Look, politicians don’t expect to be popular all the time. You know, getting on with running the country is a job where you have to take difficult decisions a lot of the time.

“I wasn’t there, but I heard people booing, I heard people cheering, I think it’s best to get on with the job at hand – running the country – rather than being overly distracted by the clips that you just played.”

Shapps said George Osborne, who was Chancellor at the time, was booed at the 2012 Olympics opening ceremony but the Conservatives still went on to win the 2015 election.

Asked why other politicians – including former PMs like Tony Blair and Gordon Brown – who attended the St. Paul’s service were not booed, Shapps said: “Well, he’s the Prime Minister, rather different from an ex-prime minister or a more minor politician.”

Johnson faces another huge week at Westminster amid mounting speculation he could face a vote of no confidence in his leadership.

In a further blow for the PM, a new poll has revealed that the Tories are 20 points behind Labour in Wakefield, where voters will go to the polls on June 23 in a crunch by-election.

Shapps said he did not believe a confidence vote would take place, but insisted Johnson would win it if one did happen.

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