Reform UK are on course to win the next general election, according to a shock mega-poll.
Nigel Farage’s party would emerge with the most MPs in what would be a major political earthquake.
The More in Common think-tank asked more than 16,000 people who they would vote for if the election – expected in 2029 – was taking place tomorrow.
It showed that Reform, Labour and the Conservatives all have around 24% support among the electorate.
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Using the so-called “MRP” method to give a seat-by-sea breakdown of that result, it showed Reform would have 180 MPs, a staggering 175 more than they got elected last July.
Labour would lose 246 seats leave them on just 165, the same number as the Tories.
Keir Starmer’s party would suffer “historic losses” in traditional heartlands in Wales, Greater Manchester and Yorkshire, with 10 cabinet ministers losing their seats.
Among the big names who are at risk are deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, health secretary Wes Streeting, chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Pat McFadden and home secretary Yvette Cooper.
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The Lib Dems would lose five seats to leave them on 67, while the SNP would once again re-emerge as the biggest party in Scotland, surging by 26 to leave them with 35 MPs.
A total of 10 independent MPs would be elected, according to the poll, with Plaid Cymru up one on five seats, with the Greens unchanged on four.
The result throws up the possibility of Farage becoming prime minister at the head of Reform-Tory coalition.
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However, Labour could also try to piece together a rainbow coalition with the Lib Dems, SNP and Greens.
Luke Tryl, More in Common’s UK director, said: “We are a long way from a General Election and trying to predict the result is a fool’s errand, but what we can say for certain is that as of today British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level. The coalition for change that elected Keir Starmer’s government has splintered right and left.
“Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerges as the biggest winners of this parliament so far, with our model suggesting that they could well become the largest party in parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago.
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“Though the party remains a long way from being able to secure a majority, it is clear Reform’s momentum is real and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome.”
Tryl said Labour “find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the government’s early missteps”.
He added: “The Conservatives meanwhile may breathe a sigh of relief they haven’t been entirely wiped out, but despite Labour’s unpopularity their seat total would only return to 1997 levels and they would suffer further losses to Reform UK, while winning back few of their Liberal Democrat losses in the home counties.
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“But the truth is the nature of a splintered electorate more than anything means elections for the next few years will be highly unpredictable with candidates winning on small shares of the vote and knife-edge results.
“The test for all three main parties will be which one can prove to the electorate that they can really deliver the change the public so desperately wants to see.”
