Here’s What Experts Think Will Happen In Gaza If A Ceasefire Is Not Called Soon

Experts have a grim prediction for what might happen in Gaza unless a ceasefire is called – and soon.

MPs have been ripping into each other over parliamentary procedure surrounding different parties’ motions around calling for a ceasefire or a pause in the fighting.

The row has now escalated into a major challenge to speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle’s job, spinning away from the original matter at hand – the crisis in Gaza.

So it’s worth looking at an independent report which came out this week, from the John Hopkins’ Centre for Humanitarian Health and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, which was funded by the government.

Even if there’s a ceasefire, the academics predict around 6,550 people will die between February 7 and August 6.

That’s because malnutrition, infectious diseases like cholera and a lack of care for those who have chronic conditions will continue to drive the numbers of deaths in the Palestinian territory.

If there’s no ceasefire, and the “status quo” stays the same as it is now, the academics believe 58,260 people will die over the next six months.

And if there’s an escalation of violence, up to 74,290 people will die in the same time frame, according to their predictions.

Traumatic injuries will make up the majority of excess deaths in the territory in these two latter scenarios, according to the independent researchers.

The academics’ projected scenario looks even worse if a health epidemic of some kind breaks out.

With a ceasefire and an epidemic, the academics believe there will be a further 11,580 deaths; without a ceasefire, this goes up to 66,720; and if there’s an escalation of violence, it skyrockets to 85,750 extra deaths.

The academics who worked on the report said it did not include Israel because its health system is still functioning.

Experts have been warning about the deteriorating health conditions in Gaza for months now.

More than 85% of Palestinian inhabitants have been left homeless and the World Health Organisation says 90% of children under 5 are affected by one of more infection disease.

A sixth of children under the age of two in the north of Gaza are also acutely malnourished.

According to the Hamas-run health authorities in Gaza, more than 29,000 people have been killed since the war began. The officials do not differentiate between civilians and militants.

Speaking on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, Dr Hasam Zumlot, said that the scenes in the Commons last night were “disgraceful”, especially considering the state of Gaza right now.

He said on Wednesday night: “This is unthinkable, what is happening in Westminster today is simply unthinkable.”

He also predicted that if Israel does invade Rafah in southern Gaza – one of the last places of refuge in the Palestinian territory – “what will follow is World War III”.

He added: “It is as blunt and as simple as that because you have millions of people who will be scattered and dispersed. You will have a regional situation that is already at the brink.”

His comments came after a member of Israel’s war cabinet suggested this offensive would occur on March 10, the start of Ramadan, unless Hamas handed the remaining hostages back.

Zumlot warned: “If we don’t act in the next few days, this is going to be a regional war and a global war.”

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Up To 117 People Potentially Exposed To Asbestos In Parliament Leak

Up to 117 people have potentially been exposed to asbestos in parliament, it was revealed today.

It comes after HuffPost UK revealed that renovation work had to be halted and the Health and Safety Executive launched an investigation after a leak last October.

Dr John Benger, clerk of the Commons, told MPs that 81 contractors and 36 parliamentary staff were among those affected.

Most were not informed until more than four months after the leak started, and two months after he learnt about it himself.

Benger faced a grilling from the public accounts committee in which he conceded that lessons must be learnt, adding: “It’s not a defensible position. It shouldn’t have happened”.

The committee heard that asbestos was released during works on the Speaker’s bedrooms over four days in October but not noticed until nearly four weeks later on November 19.

The site was immediately closed and three members of staff working on the project were informed.

However, it was not reported to the HSE until February 10 and the full number of those who may have come into contact with the deadly substance were not informed until February 17.

Asked why everyone potentially exposed to the leak was not informed before then, Benger replied: “I completely agree that they should have been told far more quickly than they were.”

He suggested one of the reasons it took “such a long time” was because there was a dispute over whether the incident “crossed the threshold” at which any notification was required and a discrepancy over who had a duty to report it.

The leak was said to have taken place between October 23 and 27, but Benger said the first he heard about it was when he read a safety report on December 10.

He told the committee: “That indicated that three staff were potentially affected whereas our current belief is that potentially 117 staff were in the area.”

He said the level of seriousness did not look as great then as it did now and that parliament’s lawyers were not notified until February,

Committee chair Dame Meg Hillier said: “It seems like lots of people were dancing on pinheads about who was responsible.”

Benger replied: “I agree with that. I think there are definitely lessons to be learned. We’ve already started learning lessons in terms of immediate safety.

“We stood down all works on the parliamentary estate on February 9, which is a huge number of projects.”

When Hillier told him that was two months after they knew about the leak, he replied: “I’m not for a minute saying that this is a defensible position. It’s not a defensible position. This shouldn’t have happened.”

Benger said the building was “full of asbestos” and they have incidents “about once a year”.

Tory MP Sir Geoffrey Clifton-Brown referred to HuffPost UK’s exclusive coverage of the leak last month, telling him: “It does sort of give an impression that there was an element of cover-up going on.

“Surely these things should be put in the public domain as soon as they happen? So that everybody else can be aware of what’s happened?”

Benger replied: “I’m not aware of any cover-up. What I do think is the case is that there is great disagreement between the different parties whose fault it was and whose duty it was to notify.”

Jawad Raza, from the civil servants’ union the FDA, said: “Successive reports have determined that the safest and cheapest option is to decant from the Palace of Westminster whilst necessary repair work is carried out.

“Today’s updated figures relating to asbestos exposure only highlights the continued risk to the workplace of parliamentary staff, MPs and all those who visit. It is imperative that both houses now work quickly, including engaging with its staff to find a solution.”

It comes after a recent report outlined how the crucial works needed to save the Palace of Westminster could cost up to £22 billion and last 76 years.

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Palace Of Westminster Restoration Could Cost £22 Billion And Last 76 Years

The long-awaited restoration work needed to save the Palace of Westminster could cost up to £22 billion and last 76 years, a bombshell report revealed today.

Three options for renovating the crumbling palace have been outlined as part of a survey by the official body overseeing the renovations.

The various scenarios show that the longer everyone remains in the building – the longer the project will take and the more expensive it will be.

They include:

1) Full decant, everyone leaves: £7-13 billion, 19-28 years.

2) Partial decant, Commons moves to Lords: £9.5-18.5 billion, 26-43 years.

3) Commons stays put: £11-22 billion, 46-76 years.

The report, by the Houses of Parliament Restoration and Renewal Programme [R&R], warned that a continued presence “substantially heightens the overall risk” for the restoration project and parliament, compared to a full decant.

“In particular, the pre-existing level of fire risk in the Commons chamber is not reduced until completion and so would not be ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ and would be sustained for decades,” the report said.

The Grade I listed building is riddled with asbestos, leaking pipes and costs millions every year to maintain.

It comes less than a week after HuffPost UK revealed separate works in the Speaker’s apartments had to be halted for three days last year after the discovery of asbestos.

Construction workers remove the scaffolding from the restored west dial of the clock on Elizabeth Tower, known as Big Ben, at the Palace of Westminster.
Construction workers remove the scaffolding from the restored west dial of the clock on Elizabeth Tower, known as Big Ben, at the Palace of Westminster.

Victoria Jones – PA Images via Getty Images

Up to nine members of parliamentary staff and even more contractors may have been exposed to the potentially-deadly substance between October and November last year.

The R&R scheme was intended to deliver a number of “critical” improvements to the palace such as removing asbestos, reducing the fire risk and replacing the “failing network” of essential building services including power, sewage, water, gas, heating and data cables.

Today’s study found that there are a number of “key risks” if MPs stay put, they include fire safety and other serious concerns such as health and safety legislation.

They even suggested it could alter parliamentary business, ways of working and parliamentary procedure.

“A partial decant or staying put means we continue to risk the palace burning down, a major asbestos or sewage leak or a major water failure.”

– Dame Andrea Leadsom

The multi-billion pound cost estimates factor in a lease with the QEII conference centre close to parliament – where a temporary House could be constructed.

MPs originally backed a full decant proposal in 2018, which would see them move into Richmond House in Whitehall for around six years.

But the latest report comes amid a number of set backs for the project and a desire from some MPs to remain in the historic building.

Former cabinet minister Dame Andrea Leadsom told HuffPost UK it was clear that staying in the palace while work continued was not only “outrageously expensive” but posed “difficulties and danger” for everyone visiting and working there.

“Throughout my time as leader of the Commons and ever since, I have been consistent in my view that the only option is to decant. It is the safest and most cost effective way to preserve this irreplaceable UNESCO World Heritage site for future generations,” she added.

“A partial decant or staying put means we continue to risk the palace burning down, a major asbestos or sewage leak or a major water failure. I think it is ridiculous that the tough decision the House took in 2018 has been reopened yet again.”

However, another former Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg recently warned that MPs would “never come back” to the Houses of Parliament if the worst-case scenario went ahead.

Rees-Mogg told the Commons earlier this month: “It seems to me that if we were to have a decant of 20 years we would never come back into this palace and £13 billion or possibly even £14 billion of taxpayers’ money is not justifiable.

“This has gone on for too long, we have been waiting for years for the perfect scheme and instead of getting on with what we ought to do.”

It is thought that MPs may be asked to be vote once again on alternative proposals for the refurbishment.

A House of Commons spokesperson said: “The House of Commons commission wants vital work to secure and restore the Palace of Westminster to begin as soon as possible and is determined to secure value for the taxpayer, while ensuring the parliamentary estate remains a safe place to work and visit.

“The commission’s proposals are intended to ensure that critical works to the Palace can be started sooner, are affordable, and minimise the time that Members spend outside the Palace.

“A final decision will be taken by both Houses. In the meantime, the sponsor body and delivery authority continue to carry out important preparatory work, including surveys.”

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Boris Johnson Firmly Put In His Place By The Commons’ Speaker: ‘Sit Down Prime Minister!’

Boris Johnson was told off by the speaker of the House of Commons during prime minister’s questions on Wednesday during a rather embarrassing exchange.

Sir Lindsay Hoyle spoke over the prime minister when he was tried to dodge a question from Sir Keir Starmer and reminded Johnson: “I’m not going to be challenged.

“You may be the prime minister of this country – but in this house, I’m in charge!”

The leader of the opposition – Labour’s leader, Starmer – was pressing the prime minister over former Tory MP Owen Paterson, who was a paid lobbyist for health company Randox and briefly defended by the government before a dramatic U-turn.

This firm won government contracts worth almost £600 million without competition, triggering concerns about how Downing Street spent taxpayer’s money.

Starmer asked: “There’s only one way to get to the bottom of this – if he [the prime minister] votes for Labour’s motion this afternoon, that [Randox] investigation can start. Will he vote for it or will he vote for another coverup?”

Johnson replied: “I’m very happy to publish all the details of the Randox contract, which is being investigated by the National Audit Office already.

“Talking of coverups – I’m sorry Mr Speaker, but we still have not heard why the honourable gentleman will not –”

Hoyle interrupted the attempts to talk about Starmer’s own work outside of Parliament when he was a backbencher, urged the prime minister to “sit down” and told him “that’s the end of that” to the cheers of the opposition benches.

Johnson tried to quiz Sir Keir Starmer on his own second job outside parliament
Johnson tried to quiz Sir Keir Starmer on his own second job outside parliament

BBC Parliament

Hoyle had already called for order repeatedly in the Commons just 10 minutes into the weekly prime minister’s questions.

He also reminded Johnson “although I don’t want to fall out”, this time of the week is for prime minister’s questions, not questions to the opposition about their conduct.

“Whether you like it or not, those are the rules of the game that we are into, and and we play by the rules don’t we? And we respect the house so let’s respect the house,” Hoyle said pointedly.

When MPs continued to shout across the house at each other, Hoyle told them: “Look, we’ve already lost a dear friend – I want to show that this house has learnt from it.”

He was referring Paterson, who resigned in November after his breach of parliamentary lobbying rules triggered a sleaze scandal.

The government briefly tried to get Paterson off the hook for breaching lobbying rules but it has since turned into a national row about MPs’ standards and has centred on behaviour in the Tory Party.

Hoyle continued: “I don’t want each other to be shouted down. I want questions to be respected, I want the public to actually be able to hear the answers – because I’m struggling in this chair. I need no more.”

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UK-EU Trade May Never Return To ‘Normal’, Brexit Minister Admits

Trade between the UK and the EU may never return to “normal”, a senior Brexit minister has admitted.

Lord Frost appeared to blame Brussels for the barriers many firms are facing to trading with the EU, despite negotiating the trade deal that took the UK out of the single market, which used to guarantee free flowing business with the continent.

It came after Brexiteer Tory MP Richard Drax said he had heard from businesses having difficulties with “red tape, the colour of your pen, problems at the border” as a result of the UK leaving the single market.

Earlier this month, Boris Johnson deployed gunboats to Jersey amid a post-Brexit fishing dispute with France.

Recent official statistics showed that in the first quarter of the year when the UK and EU traded on post-Brexit terms for the first time, exports to the EU were down 18% with imports down 21%, compared to the last quarter of 2020.

Particular sectors such as food and drink have been particularly hard hit by the new export requirements, and for the first time on record EU imports were outstripped by non-EU goods in March.

Frost said there were “teething problems” in seafood exports and said government support for the industry was having “some effect” in making exports easier.

He said there were “isolated incidents” of EU officials complaining about “the wrong colour stamp or pen” but said largely the Brussels side had been “pretty pragmatic”.

At the Commons European scrutiny committee, Drax then asked Frost if he was confident that in months and years ahead business can resume “as normal as it possibly can”.

House of Commons – PA Images via Getty Images

Brexit minister Lord Frost with officials giving evidence to the European Scrutiny Committee

Frost replied: “I don’t know whether it will happen, I think it definitely can happen.

“There is a lot of pragmatism, everybody wants trade to continue in as free flowing a way as we possibly can in the new arrangements.

“There is definitely a large current of opinion in the EU and member states that want that to happen.

“I think there are people who see Brexit as a bit of a zero-sum game and want us to face difficulties.

“But I like to think those won’t be the dominant opinions and things will settle down in a fairly pragmatic way as we move forward.

“We’ll see.”

Frost also admitted that checks at the Northern Irish border that he and the prime minister negotiated were causing more problems for businesses in the rest of the UK than they had anticipated.

The minister is currently trying to renegotiate the terms of trade for Northern Ireland to improve the situation amid growing tensions in the region.

But he rejected the EU’s call for the UK to adopt Brussels regulations on plant and animal-based trade as a way through the row.

Frost said: “I think the broader question is that the processes around the boundary between GB [Great Britain] and Northern Ireland are significant.

“They probably have a bigger chilling effect than we thought on GB businesses wanting to move goods into Northern Ireland and that is one of the problems that’s underlying some of the unrest and political developments we’re seeing in Northern Ireland.”

He added: “Obviously, from the EU’s point of view the easiest solution to any border problem is that we should just operate the same rules and laws as they do, and that solves the problem, obviously that doesn’t work for us and that isn’t going to be the solution.

“That was obviously one of the big problems with the original backstop and everything that went with it, so we’re not going back there.”

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