Here’s What Experts Think Will Happen In Gaza If A Ceasefire Is Not Called Soon

Experts have a grim prediction for what might happen in Gaza unless a ceasefire is called – and soon.

MPs have been ripping into each other over parliamentary procedure surrounding different parties’ motions around calling for a ceasefire or a pause in the fighting.

The row has now escalated into a major challenge to speaker Sir Lindsay Hoyle’s job, spinning away from the original matter at hand – the crisis in Gaza.

So it’s worth looking at an independent report which came out this week, from the John Hopkins’ Centre for Humanitarian Health and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, which was funded by the government.

Even if there’s a ceasefire, the academics predict around 6,550 people will die between February 7 and August 6.

That’s because malnutrition, infectious diseases like cholera and a lack of care for those who have chronic conditions will continue to drive the numbers of deaths in the Palestinian territory.

If there’s no ceasefire, and the “status quo” stays the same as it is now, the academics believe 58,260 people will die over the next six months.

And if there’s an escalation of violence, up to 74,290 people will die in the same time frame, according to their predictions.

Traumatic injuries will make up the majority of excess deaths in the territory in these two latter scenarios, according to the independent researchers.

The academics’ projected scenario looks even worse if a health epidemic of some kind breaks out.

With a ceasefire and an epidemic, the academics believe there will be a further 11,580 deaths; without a ceasefire, this goes up to 66,720; and if there’s an escalation of violence, it skyrockets to 85,750 extra deaths.

The academics who worked on the report said it did not include Israel because its health system is still functioning.

Experts have been warning about the deteriorating health conditions in Gaza for months now.

More than 85% of Palestinian inhabitants have been left homeless and the World Health Organisation says 90% of children under 5 are affected by one of more infection disease.

A sixth of children under the age of two in the north of Gaza are also acutely malnourished.

According to the Hamas-run health authorities in Gaza, more than 29,000 people have been killed since the war began. The officials do not differentiate between civilians and militants.

Speaking on LBC’s Tonight with Andrew Marr, the Palestinian ambassador to the UK, Dr Hasam Zumlot, said that the scenes in the Commons last night were “disgraceful”, especially considering the state of Gaza right now.

He said on Wednesday night: “This is unthinkable, what is happening in Westminster today is simply unthinkable.”

He also predicted that if Israel does invade Rafah in southern Gaza – one of the last places of refuge in the Palestinian territory – “what will follow is World War III”.

He added: “It is as blunt and as simple as that because you have millions of people who will be scattered and dispersed. You will have a regional situation that is already at the brink.”

His comments came after a member of Israel’s war cabinet suggested this offensive would occur on March 10, the start of Ramadan, unless Hamas handed the remaining hostages back.

Zumlot warned: “If we don’t act in the next few days, this is going to be a regional war and a global war.”

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Boris Johnson Pulls Out Of Race To Be Prime Minister

Boris Johnson has ruled himself out of running for the Tory leadership, despite claiming he had the support required to do so.

The former prime minister said he had “much to offer” but that now was “simply not the right time”.

Johnson said he was “well placed” to deliver a Tory win at the next general election but suggested it would be hard to govern a disunited party.

“You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament,” he said.

He also confirmed that he had appealed to the other two candidates – Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt – but they had not been able to work out a deal.

Johnson pulled out just a few hours after his campaign team told supporters they had secured the 100 nominations needed from MPs to get on the ballot paper.

A number of cabinet ministers, including Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadhim Zahawi, had backed their former boss.

One reason why the former PM may have decided not to run is that he is facing an inquiry into whether he lied to the Commons over the partygate scandal.

If found guilty by the Commons Privileges Committee, he could face recall proceedings that would leave him battling for his seat in the Commons if he receives a suspension of 10 days or more.

Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak.
Former Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak.

DANIEL LEAL via Getty Images

It now looks increasingly likely that former chancellor Sunak is heading for No.10 and will be Britain’s next prime minister.

In a statement, Johnson said: “In the last few days I have been overwhelmed by the number of people who suggested that I should once again contest the Conservative Party leadership, both among the public and among friends and colleagues in Parliament.

“I have been attracted because I led our party into a massive election victory less than three years ago – and I believe I am therefore uniquely placed to avert a general election now.

“A general election would be a further disastrous distraction just when the government must focus on the economic pressures faced by families across the country.

“I believe I am well placed to deliver a Conservative victory in 2024 – and tonight I can confirm that I have cleared the very high hurdle of 102 nominations, including a proposer and a seconder, and I could put my nomination in tomorrow.

“There is a very good chance that I would be successful in the election with Conservative Party members – and that I could indeed be back in Downing Street on Friday.

Penny Mordaunt.
Penny Mordaunt.

ISABEL INFANTES via Getty Images

“But in the course of the last days I have sadly come to the conclusion that this would simply not be the right thing to do. You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.

“And though I have reached out to both Rishi and Penny – because I hoped that we could come together in the national interest – we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing this.

“Therefore I am afraid the best thing is that I do not allow my nomination to go forward and commit my support to whoever succeeds. I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time.”

A source close to Rishi Sunak said: “We are not taking anything for granted. Rishi will be continuing to talk to colleagues tomorrow morning before nomination papers go in, and discussing how best to unite the party and take the country forward.”

A Mordaunt campaign source said: “Penny is still running to be the leader of the Conservative Party.

“Penny is the unifying candidate who is most likely to keep the wings of the Conservative Party together and polling shows that she is the most likely candidate to hold onto the seats the Conservative Party gained in 2019.

“Ed Balls, shadow cabinet ministers and Labour advisers have all said Penny is the candidate Keir Starmer fears the most.”

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Speaker Calls For Review Of Parliament’s Work Practices After Sexual Misconduct Claims

The Speaker of the House of Commons is calling for a review of current working practices in Parliament.

Sir Lindsay Hoyle said a review is “needed urgently” to examine the current structure whereby MPs employ their staff directly.

It follows a spate of allegations by MPs and staff of bullying and sexual misconduct across the parliamentary estate.

Hoyle’s office said he was working with political parties and house authorities to establish a “Speaker’s Conference” as soon as possible to consider the problems.

Made up of MPs, the committee would review current working practices and conditions, take expert advice and consider if there is a case for change.

Sir Lindsay said: “I take recent allegations of bullying and sexual impropriety, comments and advances very seriously, which is why it is time we reviewed our working practices, particularly whether it is right that individual MPs are the employers of their staff.

“The question is: should someone else – or an outside body – employ the staff, as long as the MP has the right to choose them?”

The mechanism was last used in 2008 to provide advice on parliamentary representation and requires both the government and house to approve it.

Hoyle hopes the conference will reach cross-party agreement and make recommendations to the house on a case for change.

Meanwhile, Dame Andrea Leadsom, the former leader of the House of Commons, has called for the creation of a human resources service.

It comes after Tory MP Neil Parish stood down after he was allegedly seen by two female MPs watching pornography on his phone in the House of Commons chamber.

It prompted senior Tory MP Caroline Nokes to say her party is institutionally sexist and that there was a culture of “male entitlement” in the party.

Separately, there are reports that 56 MPs are currently facing sexual misconduct investigations, including three cabinet ministers and two shadow cabinet ministers.

The Sunday Times has also outlined a number of claims against MPs today, including a senior MP accused of repeatedly licking the faces of male researchers in parliamentary bars.

Other allegations include a female Tory MP who was sent an explicit photograph, known as a “dick pic”, by a male colleague and another MP repeatedly warned about his use of prostitutes, according to sources.

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Palace Of Westminster Restoration Could Cost £22 Billion And Last 76 Years

The long-awaited restoration work needed to save the Palace of Westminster could cost up to £22 billion and last 76 years, a bombshell report revealed today.

Three options for renovating the crumbling palace have been outlined as part of a survey by the official body overseeing the renovations.

The various scenarios show that the longer everyone remains in the building – the longer the project will take and the more expensive it will be.

They include:

1) Full decant, everyone leaves: £7-13 billion, 19-28 years.

2) Partial decant, Commons moves to Lords: £9.5-18.5 billion, 26-43 years.

3) Commons stays put: £11-22 billion, 46-76 years.

The report, by the Houses of Parliament Restoration and Renewal Programme [R&R], warned that a continued presence “substantially heightens the overall risk” for the restoration project and parliament, compared to a full decant.

“In particular, the pre-existing level of fire risk in the Commons chamber is not reduced until completion and so would not be ‘as low as reasonably practicable’ and would be sustained for decades,” the report said.

The Grade I listed building is riddled with asbestos, leaking pipes and costs millions every year to maintain.

It comes less than a week after HuffPost UK revealed separate works in the Speaker’s apartments had to be halted for three days last year after the discovery of asbestos.

Construction workers remove the scaffolding from the restored west dial of the clock on Elizabeth Tower, known as Big Ben, at the Palace of Westminster.
Construction workers remove the scaffolding from the restored west dial of the clock on Elizabeth Tower, known as Big Ben, at the Palace of Westminster.

Victoria Jones – PA Images via Getty Images

Up to nine members of parliamentary staff and even more contractors may have been exposed to the potentially-deadly substance between October and November last year.

The R&R scheme was intended to deliver a number of “critical” improvements to the palace such as removing asbestos, reducing the fire risk and replacing the “failing network” of essential building services including power, sewage, water, gas, heating and data cables.

Today’s study found that there are a number of “key risks” if MPs stay put, they include fire safety and other serious concerns such as health and safety legislation.

They even suggested it could alter parliamentary business, ways of working and parliamentary procedure.

“A partial decant or staying put means we continue to risk the palace burning down, a major asbestos or sewage leak or a major water failure.”

– Dame Andrea Leadsom

The multi-billion pound cost estimates factor in a lease with the QEII conference centre close to parliament – where a temporary House could be constructed.

MPs originally backed a full decant proposal in 2018, which would see them move into Richmond House in Whitehall for around six years.

But the latest report comes amid a number of set backs for the project and a desire from some MPs to remain in the historic building.

Former cabinet minister Dame Andrea Leadsom told HuffPost UK it was clear that staying in the palace while work continued was not only “outrageously expensive” but posed “difficulties and danger” for everyone visiting and working there.

“Throughout my time as leader of the Commons and ever since, I have been consistent in my view that the only option is to decant. It is the safest and most cost effective way to preserve this irreplaceable UNESCO World Heritage site for future generations,” she added.

“A partial decant or staying put means we continue to risk the palace burning down, a major asbestos or sewage leak or a major water failure. I think it is ridiculous that the tough decision the House took in 2018 has been reopened yet again.”

However, another former Commons Leader Jacob Rees-Mogg recently warned that MPs would “never come back” to the Houses of Parliament if the worst-case scenario went ahead.

Rees-Mogg told the Commons earlier this month: “It seems to me that if we were to have a decant of 20 years we would never come back into this palace and £13 billion or possibly even £14 billion of taxpayers’ money is not justifiable.

“This has gone on for too long, we have been waiting for years for the perfect scheme and instead of getting on with what we ought to do.”

It is thought that MPs may be asked to be vote once again on alternative proposals for the refurbishment.

A House of Commons spokesperson said: “The House of Commons commission wants vital work to secure and restore the Palace of Westminster to begin as soon as possible and is determined to secure value for the taxpayer, while ensuring the parliamentary estate remains a safe place to work and visit.

“The commission’s proposals are intended to ensure that critical works to the Palace can be started sooner, are affordable, and minimise the time that Members spend outside the Palace.

“A final decision will be taken by both Houses. In the meantime, the sponsor body and delivery authority continue to carry out important preparatory work, including surveys.”

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Sikh MP Speaks Out About ‘Taliban’ Jibes And Racist Attacks Outside Parliament

Joe Giddens – PA Images via Getty Images

Tan Dhesi, Labour Party MP for Slough

A Sikh MP has spoken out about the “Taliban” jibes he faces and how a visitor was attacked outside parliament for wearing a turban. 

Tanmanjeet Dhesi, who is Britain’s first turban-wearing MP, said racism was a “common experience” for many people from ethnic minorities. 

He told Gloria De Piero on GB News he had been called “Taliban” over the last couple of decades, adding: “After the 9/11 attacks – the level of racism towards people, especially with turbans like me, or with beards, that increased substantially. 

“In the US – our close friend and allies – there, Sikhs were shot dead, just because they had a turban and beard. 

“People made Islamophobic remarks, calling them the Taliban, and then more than one individual was shot dead, because of that hatred – which is unfortunately instilled in so many people across not only North America, but Europe too.”

He said people could not imagine the impact the Taliban and Mujahideen had on Sikhs in Afghanistan who faced “significant persecution”. 

The MP for Slough added: “Don’t think that minorities like the Sikhs or Hindus see the Taliban as some sort of heroes. They have faced the persecution and discrimination from those religious extremists.”

He has previously spoken out about how children tried to tear his turban off when he was at school, but warned it was a “similar experience” for many.

Dhesi described how an Indian guest, who came to visit him in the House of Commons to discuss the climate crisis, faced the same abuse. 

The Labour MP added: “As he was queueing up outside parliament – somebody, filled with so much hatred, went along and disparaging remarks to him, Islamophobic remarks to him, saying ‘go back to your country’, and so on. 

“He also, unfortunately, also tried to pull off his turban. While I was trying to console him – and it was lucky the police were there, who caught it on CCTV – I just felt so shameful, that this had happened outside our parliament.

“What image is that going to make of our country, as he goes back to Punjab, as he goes back to India? And unfortunately, it made news within the Sikh media – that this had happened outside the House of Commons, for which people have a great and higher regard – thinking of it as the mother of all parliaments.”

He said the incident demonstrated how common the problem was and how we need to tackle racism “head on”.

The interview is due to be aired on Monday at 12.40pm.

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Parliament Will Return On April 21, Government Confirms

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A Life In A Cage Is No Life At All – Yet 16 Million Farm Animals Are Imprisoned

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Britain’s Youngest MP Says She Feels Unwelcome In Parliament As A ‘Working-Class Woman Of Colour’

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Geoffrey Cox Triggers Backlash By Claiming Parliament Has ‘No Moral Right’ To Sit

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Parliament Must Oust Boris Johnson As PM Now, Says Labour MP Paul Williams

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