Labour’s majority in parliament is a ticking “time bomb”, according to a brutal new report – and not because a threat from the right.
Keir Starmer’s party may have won by a landslide in July, taking 411 seats while the Tories languish on just 121, but new findings from Labour-linked think tank Compass claims it still offers a weak mandate for change.
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After all, it was a shallow victory as Labour actually won just a third of the popular vote, and that poses a major threat further down the line.
On Thursday, pollsters at Find Out Now put Nigel Farage’s populist Reform Party in second place behind the Tories with Labour in third – just five months after voters hit the ballot box.
But, Compass’s new findings, first reported in the Guardian, have found Labour should be more concerned about their lack of voter loyalty – just two in five who backed Labour in July said they would consider themselves to be Labour supporters – than pressure from the right.
That’s because around 48% of Labour’s voters in July said they would be likely to vote Green or Lib Dem in the future, compared to 23% who said they were more likely to go to Reform or the Tories.
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Compass’s report Thin Ice claimed: “They won [in Red Wall seats] because they were not the Tories, because Tory voters stayed at home and because Reform split the regressive vote.
“The 2024 general election was a one-off event in which unprecedented Tory ineptitude met almost unparalleled Labour discipline, but without any deep expression of what, if any, change Labour was offering.”
The pollsters said: “The timidity of this strategy, resting on ‘not being the Tories’, is atime bomb.”
Compass’s director Neal Lawson told the Guardian Starmer should look to base a coalition on the progressive majority to bolster support.
Otherwise, he warned, “if Labour fails to deliver in government, its huge but fragile majority will crumble, sending us on a bullet train to the populist right.”
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The report comes after a tumultuous first few months in office for Labour, including backlash to cost-cutting policies like changing winter fuel payments for pensions.
Starmer attempted to “relaunch” his government with six new missions last week.
He wanted to turn the focus onto pursuing clean energy, building more homes, recruiting more police officers, putting a greater emphasis on early years education, introducing higher living standards and reducing NHS waiting lists.
The prime minister spoke on Sunday, after rebel forces ousted the country’s authoritarian leader by seizing the capital, Damascus.
Starmer also called for civilians to be protected – the UK had been evacuating its own citizens in the days leading up to peak of the rebellion.
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According to PA news agency, he said: “The developments in Syria in recent hours and days are unprecedented, and we are speaking to our partners in the region and monitoring the situation closely.
“The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure.
“Our focus is now on ensuring a political solution prevails, and peace and stability is restored.
“We call on all sides to protect civilians and minorities, and ensure essential aid can reach the most vulnerable in the coming hours and days.”
His remarks echo the comments from deputy prime minister Angela Rayner this morning.
Speaking to Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips, she said: “Well, the situation looks very serious and if the Assad regime has fallen, then I welcome that news.
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“But what we need to say is a political resolution in line with the UN resolutions. And we need to see civilians and infrastructure protected.
“Far too many people have lost their lives – we need stability in that region.”
She continued: “If Assad has fallen and that regime is over, I welcome that.
“He wasn’t exactly good to the Syrian people.
“So we want to see a political resolution so that we can get that stability for Syrians and make sure that they have their infrastructure so that they have a political government there that is working in the interest of the Syrian people.”
Assad has fled Damascus but his exact whereabouts remain uncertain.
Some reports suggest he may try to flee to Russia as Vladimir Putin is a key ally and his regime was propped up by the Kremlin until this latest rebellion.
It’s also not clear who will fill the power vacuum now, although one of the leading rebel groups originated in Al-Qaeda.
Starmer is set to travel to the Middle East this week to meet with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, although his trip was planned before Assad’s regime collapsed.
It is becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile that reasonable aim with the reality of Starmer’s first five months in power.
Since July, the public have witnessed a blizzard of policy announcements, the biggest tax-raising Budget in more than 30 years, high-profilesackings, a No.10 reorganisation and a cabinet minister forced to resign in disgrace.
This hyperactivity culminated in the prime minister unveiling his “plan for change” on Thursday, setting out the six key policies he wants voters to judge Labour on between now and the next election.
Labour will, he said, make people better off, build 1.5 million homes, get more children ready to start school, bring down hospital waits, recruit thousands more neighbourhood police and de-carbonise the electricity grid by 2030.
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These promises are definitely not to be confused with Labour’s five missions for government, which Starmer launched nearly two years ago, or indeed the six pledges he made during the general election campaign.
While Downing Street officials were at pains to deny it, it looked and felt like a much-needed reset for a government which has been on the back foot almost from the day it was elected.
Keiran Pedley, director of politics at pollsters Ipsos, said: “It’s not surprising that they’re trying to reassert themselves because, as we’ve seen over the summer and more recently, Starmer’s personal ratings have fallen.
“In July his approval ratings were still net positive, but now he’s on minus 29. We also had polling which showed 53% of voters are disappointed with how Labour have done so far.”
“There’s definitely a feeling that it hasn’t started well for Labour, which is reflected in the polling,” he said.
“They’re trying to take charge of the agenda, but the risk is that people don’t actually pay that much attention.
“People voted Labour for a change and to fix the economy and that ultimately is what they will be judged by.”
Pedley also warned that Starmer’s avalanche of promises could end up being counter-productive.
“The problem is you say too much about what your priorities are to the point where it all gets a bit lost,” he said.
“A few weeks ago the PM said illegal migration was one of his top two priorities, but then it wasn’t even one of the six milestones. If you’re going to tell the public ‘judge me on this thing’ you need to be consistent about what those things are.
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“You can have six milestones, five missions and a partridge in a pear tree, but the fundamental things they need to do is fix the NHS and turn the economy around.”
The main drivers behind the plan for change have been Morgan McSweeney, the PM’s chief of staff, and Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.
Those close to the process insist it has been in the pipeline since shortly after the election, rather than a response to the government’s ongoing woes.
“I get why people are saying it’s a relaunch or a reset, and sometimes that is a valid criticism, but on this occasion it genuinely isn’t,” said one senior No.10 source.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said Starmer’s speech may actually do him some good with the electorate.
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He told HuffPost UK: “For regular political watchers, having another technical list to keep track of isn’t ideal, but the public won’t likely care about much of that anyway.
“Labour promised change, and the UK public are utterly clear that means improvement to living standards and public services.
“If Starmer got an opportunity to communicate that to voters, then it will have been seen as a good day in No.10.”
Senior Labour figures are less sympathetic, however.
One said: “Since being PM, Keir’s had four big moments – outside No.10 on day one, the King’s Speech, party conference and now the plan for change. And people still have no idea what he stands for or what the government wants to achieve.”
Others are scathing about the No.10 operation, which only recently underwent a huge shake-up following the sacking of Sue Gray, McSweeney’s predecessor as chief of staff.
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A party insider described the prime minister’s speech as “pretty incoherent”, while another said: “I’m afraid Morgan can’t blame Sue forever.”
Even new Labour MPs have started criticising Starmer’s performance, with one asking a colleague: “How do we put him out of our misery?”
But the PM’s supporters insist he and the government are on the right track, and that Labour will eventually reap the reward for decisions being taken now.
One ally told HuffPost UK: “The original five missions were about the long-term direction of a Labour government, but there’s now a real keenness to make them a bit more tangible so that people can see as the parliament goes on what it is we’re trying to achieve. It’s a way of holding ourselves to account.
“Look at the housebuilding pledge, for example. That’s really challenging because over the last couple of years the number of new homes being built has fallen off a cliff.
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“But we want to send out a really strong signal to the public and to the civil service that these are our aims.
“We’re hoping that by setting these targets very high it will drive us on and, by the time of the next election, people will feel the difference a Labour government can make.
“If you push yourself hard you can achieve more. And what’s government for if it isn’t that?”
It remains to be seen whether that was an outlier or a sign of things to come. Starmer had better hope his new targets have the desired effect on those around him, or the next four years will be even more difficult than the last five months.
Labour will recruit an extra 13,000 neighbourhood police to tackle anti-social behaviour between now and the general election, Keir Starmer will pledge on Thursday.
The prime minister will unveil the plan in a major speech as he attempts to relaunch his government after a turbulent first five months in office.
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Every community will have a “named, contactable officer” tasked with patrolling their neighbourhood and who cannot be used to plug policing shortages in other areas, the PM will say.
The new “neighbourhood policing guarantee” is part of a “plan for change” setting out how Labour intends to achieve its five missions for government and will include separate pledges on clearing hospital backlogs, improving education, tackling the cost of living and bringing down energy bills.
But No.10 has denied that the PM has been forced into the reset by the controversies and scandals which have dogged the government since Labour’s landslide election victory in July.
They have included a row over Labour donor Lord Alli buying clothes and glasses for the prime minister, the sacking of Starmer’s chief of staff Sue Gray, and last week’s resignation by transport secretary Louise Haigh.
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In his speech, Starmer will say: “The neighbourhood policing guarantee will deliver 13,000 extra neighbourhood police, visible on your streets, cracking down on anti-social behaviour.
“A named, contactable officer in every community. A relief to millions of people scared to walk their streets they call home.”
The extra numbers will be made up of police, community support officers and special constables.
Home secretary Yvette Cooper said the move was “about rebuilding the vital connection between the public and the police”.
“This marks a return to the founding principles of British policing – where officers are part of the communities they serve,” she said.
“Through this visible, responsive police presence in every neighbourhood, we will restore the trust and partnership that lies at the heart of keeping our communities safe.”
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Starmer is also expected to address public concerns about high immigration in his speech, as well as announce a major programme of public sector reform.
He will say: “My government was elected to deliver change, and today marks the next step. People are tired of being promised the world, but short-term sticking plaster politics letting them down.
“Hardworking Brits are going out grafting every day but are getting short shrift from a politics that should serve them.
“They reasonably want a stable economy, their country to be safe, their borders secure, more cash in their pocket, safer streets in their town, opportunities for their children, secure British energy in their home, and an NHS that is there when they need it. My mission-led government will deliver.”
According to the Sunday Times, the tech billionaire could funnel the cash through the British arm of his social media platform X to get round rules banning foreigners from giving money to British parties.
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The huge sum – worth around £78 million – would give Nigel Farage’s party a major financial advantage over both Labour and the Tories.
The paper says leading businessmen and Conservative Party officials believe Musk could hand over the cash as a “fuck you Starmer payment” in his ongoing feud with the prime minister.
The war of words began during last summer’s far-right riots, when Musk posted on X that “civil war in inevitable” in the UK.
That prompted the PM’s official spokesman to hit back: “There’s no justification for comments like that and what we’ve seen in this country is organised illegal thuggery which has no place on our streets or online.”
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Musk has also criticised the introduction of inheritance tax for agricultural land by Rachel Reeves in the Budget, and last month accused Labour of turning Britain into a “tyrannical police state”.
Musk – a close ally of Donald Trump – made clear his support for Reform UK last week after it emerged that former Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns had defected to the party.
Asked about the potential Musk donation to Reform UK, Nigel Farage told the Sunday Times: “All I can say is that I’m in touch with him and he is very supportive of my policy positions.
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“We both share a friendship with Donald Trump and Trump has said good things about me in front of Musk. We’ve got a good relationship with him.”
The former transport secretary – who resigned on Thursday night – made the PM aware of her past when he made her shadow Northern Ireland secretary in 2020.
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Two years later, at the height of the partygate scandal which saw Boris Johnson fined for breaking lockdown rules, Starmer told MPs that “a lawmaker and a lawbreaker”.
On BBC1 this morning, Pat McFadden, the chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, was shown a clip of his leader making those comments.
Presenter Victoria Derbyshire told him: “He said that when he had someone sitting on his shadow frontbench, ie Louise Haigh, with a conviction.”
McFadden said: “What he’s saying is if you’re sitting in Cabinet, you can’t be breaking the law.”
But Derbyshire pointed out: “He gave her a job in Cabinet when he knew she had a past conviction.”
McFadden replied: “It’s not the case that anyone who’s ever broken the law can’t sit in parliament. I’m sure if you looked around parliament you’d find more than one, I don’t know everybody’s background.”
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The presenter asked: “If it’s fine, why did she have to go?”
McFadden said: “I don’t know the details of every conversation that took place at the end of last week, but clearly between them they came to the view that Louise had to resign.”
But Derbyshire asked him: “Is Keir Starmer a hypocrite because he gave a lawbreaker a job in his Cabinet having said that two years ago.”
The minister said: “No he’s not. I think he’s appointed a good Cabinet, it’s a more united Cabinet than I’ve seen in many years and we’re working together.”
Drink spiking is to be made a criminal offence under Labour plans to halve violence against women and girls.
Keir Starmer will confirm the move as part of efforts to “reclaim our streets” from criminals.
The prime minister will meet with police chiefs, hospitality industry executives and transport bosses on Monday to discuss how best to crack down on the practice of putting drugs in drinks.
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Thousands of staff working in the nighttime economy will be trained up on how to spot it happening.
A pilot scheme will be launched in December and then rolled out to 10,000 bars across the country by spring next year.
Starmer said: “My government was elected on a pledge to take back our streets, and we will never achieve this if women and girls do not feel safe at night.
“Today, I will bring together police chiefs, heads of industry and transport bosses to demand coordinated action to stop women being targeted, whether they are out with friends or simply travelling home.
“Cracking down on spiking is central to that mission.
“We know it can be incredibly difficult for victims to come forward to report this awful crime, and these cases can be very hard to prosecute. We must do more to bring the vile perpetrators who carry out this cowardly act, usually against young women and often to commit a sexual offence, to justice.
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“That is why I made a promise that, if elected, I would make spiking a new criminal offence. Today, I am proud to have come good on that pledge.”
Home secretary Yvette Cooper said: “Spiking is a disturbing and serious crime which can have a damaging and long-lasting impact on victims.
“People shouldn’t have to worry about the safety of their drinks on a night out. These changes are about giving victims greater confidence to come forward, and ensuring that there is a robust response from the police whenever this appalling crimes take place”.
Kate Nicholls, chief executive of UK Hospitality, said: “Our pubs, bars, clubs and restaurants are where Brits go to enjoy themselves and our priority is to ensure everyone can do that safely.
“I’m pleased that we’re able to support the Home Office in its plans to roll out a nationwide training programme as part of these efforts, to help ensure all staff know how to prevent spiking and have the skills to act if they suspect someone has been spiked.”
The PM’s official spokesman said: “There’s no justification for comments like that and what we’ve seen in this country is organised illegal thuggery which has no place on our streets or online.”
But responding to a video posted on X by Starmer in which he said the government “will not tolerate attacks on mosques or on Muslim communities”, Musk replied: “Shouldn’t you be concerned about attacks on all communities?”
Musk’s ongoing criticism of Starmer is a problem for the PM as he tries to strike up a good relationship with president-elect Trump.
The X owner was one of the Republican’s biggest supporters during the US election campaign and has been appointed to head up a new Department of Government Efficiency aimed at tackling waste and saving trillions of dollars.
According to friends, Rachel Reeves is maintaining her sense of humour as she endures growing criticism of the decisions she has taken since becoming chancellor in July. She is certainly going to need it in the years ahead.
In barely four months, Reeves has managed to anger millions of pensioners, Britain’s farmers and some of the country’s biggest employers as she seeks to repair the public finances.
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It seems that voters have noticed. Polling by Savanta seen by HuffPost UK found that the chancellor’s approval ratings have plummeted since the election, while Labour’s lead over the Tories on who is most trusted to run the economy has fallen dramatically.
However, Reeves seems determined not to row back on any of the controversial decisions she has taken in the past four months.
She had hardly got her feet under her desk at the Treasury before she announced that the winter fuel payment, previously a universal benefit for every OAP in the country, would instead be means tested.
At a stroke, 10 million pensioners were told they would no longer receive it – a move which the Department for Work and Pensions admitted this week will push 100,000 of them into relative poverty.
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Reeves justified the decision by saying Labour had to make a start on filling a £22 billion black hole left by the last Tory government, but that did not shield her from the political backlash which followed.
Undeterred, she doubled down in the Budget last month, closing a loophole which saw farmers exempted from inheritance tax, while hiking the employers’ rate of National Insurance.
The unpopularity of those decisions was shown in the past week, with thousands of farmers protesting on Whitehall, while some of the UK’s biggest companies putting their names to a letter warning that the NI changes will cost jobs and push up prices.
But despite the criticism, there is no indication from the top of government that any U-turns are on the cards.
A Labour source: “Rachel promised at the election she would be an iron chancellor that would put the economy back on track – and that’s exactly what she is doing.
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“We have always said that there would be tough decisions to clean up the mess we inherited, including the £22 billion black hole in the nation’s finances. If we duck those tough decisions we will be doing precisely what the Conservatives did: party first, country second.
“But Rachel is equally clear about the prize on offer: a Britain that is better off. That’s why the Budget was all about delivering for working people: fixing the NHS, rebuilding Britain and protecting people’s payslips from higher taxes.”
Farmers protest during a demonstration against inheritance tax changes on Tuesday.
Bloomberg via Bloomberg via Getty Images
Another senior insider told HuffPost UK: “Rachel is patient, shrewd and has confidence in herself and the people around her.
“People shouldn’t mistake her calmness and that rational approach for a lack of ambition for the government and the country, or an unwillingness to be bold.
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“She had a shaky start with the winter fuel payment announcement but she’s learned from it that presentation and follow-up is key, which is why the Budget was so well-managed at every stage.
“Undoubtedly there will be choppy waters ahead, but I couldn’t think of anyone better to be at the helm to steer the government and the country through.”
Nevertheless, there are some in government who despair at Reeves’ determination not to plot a difference course, regardless of the political headwinds she is facing.
They point out that previous chancellor, such as Gordon Brown, Nigel Lawson and Philip Hammond, all showed a willingness to change their minds when the situation demanded it.
Reeves’ decision to put Darren Jones, the chief secretary to the Treasury, in charge of the “phase one” spending review outlining departmental budgets for the next 12 months, has also drawn criticism.
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HuffPost UK has been told that Jones’ “high-handed” manner in one-to-one meetings when outlining where the axe would need to fall angered virtually all of his cabinet colleagues.
“You will not find a single minister, with the possible exception of Wes [Streeting], who has a good word to say about him,” said one senior figure.
It is essential, government sources say, that Reeves herself is at the helm of the three-year spending review which is still to come, rather than her deputy.
Some in cabinet are also worried at the apparent lack of an overarching strategy for achieving the economic growth which is meant to be the government’s number one mission.
At a recent cabinet meeting where it was discussed, there was surprise that science innovation and technology secretary Peter Kyle, and business secretary Jonathan Reynolds, were given star billing.
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“It seemed very thin,” said one minister. “There wasn’t a lot that seemed different from what the Tories have been doing for the last 10 years.”
Support for Reeves in government remains strong, however, and there is no doubt that she has the full confidence of her next door neighbour, the prime minister.
One ally said making so many unpopular decisions in her first few months in government was smart politically and economically.
“This is year one and people need to be reminded of that,” he said. “This is the first year of what will be a long parliament and it will undoubtedly be the most difficult year.
“They’re having to make difficult decisions and they’re determined that that is the right thing to do for the economy, but also politically it is the right strategy because you’ve got to do the difficult stuff now, right at the beginning, if you want to see an economic and political recovery in four years’ time.”
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Former Labour MP Michael Dugher, one of Reeves’ closest friends in politics, said: “She gets called the iron chancellor because she is seen as someone who is very tough and firm to deal with, and determined to get the public finances back in shape and create economic stability.
“But what she really needs is an iron skin because she is very much on the front line of the receiving end of a lot of the attacks on the government – whether it’s from Conservatives who still haven’t got over losing the election, or from the Left, who think Labour leaders as there to betray them.”
It is undoubtedly the case, however, that many more unpopular decisions will need to be taken by Reeves between now and the next election in four years’ time.
Having already burned through so much political capital, the pressure on her to bend will only increase if growth remains anaemic and the opinion polls do not improve.
How she responds will determine whether the iron chancellor tag is a deserved one or not.
Vladimir Putin has threatened to bomb the UK after Ukraine used British-made missiles to attack targets in Russia.
The Russian president said he was willing to “respond resolutely in a mirror way” is there is further escalation in the ongoing war.
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His comments, in an address to the Russian people, came a day after Ukraine fired British Storm Shadow missiles at Russia.
Putin said: “We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities,” he said.
“And in case of escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond resolutely in a mirror way.”
Putin said he was willing to use a new ballistic missile to target the UK after using the weapon to attack Ukraine.
He said: “In response to the use of American and British long-range weapons on November 21 of this year, the Russian armed forces launched a combined strike on one of the facilities of the Ukrainian defence industry.
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“One of the newest Russian medium-range missile systems was tested in combat conditions, in this case, with a ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead.”
The US said the weapon was a new, experimental intermediate-range missile based on Russia’s existing RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile.
Putin’s comments once again threaten to raise the temperature on a conflict which passed the 1,000 day mark earlier this week.
Commenting on Russia’s ballistic missile attack on Ukraine, Keir Starmer’s official spokesman said: “The reports coming out of Ukraine overnight are deeply concerning.
“If true clearly this would be Another example of depraved, reckless and escalatory behaviour from Russia and only strengthens our resolve.”
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Defence secretary John Healey said: “Since the illegal invasion of Ukraine began, Russia has consistently and irresponsibly escalated the conflict while Ukraine continues to fight in self-defence for a democratic future.
“Today’s ballistic missile attack is yet another example of Putin’s recklessness.”
The distance from Moscow to London is around 2,500km, suggesting the range of the new missile could threaten the UK.