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Analysis: Rachel Reeves’s £26 Billion Gamble Could Be The Final Nail In Labour’s Coffin

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Rachel Reeves said her Budget had “promised and delivered” everything Labour had promised to do when it won the election last year.

It would see government debt come down, NHS waiting lists cut and reduce the cost of living, she insisted.

But the key takeaway for voters from her second Budget is that taxes will go up by £26 billion – on top of the £40bn hike in her first one a year ago.

Around £9bn will come from her decision to maintain the freeze in income tax thresholds, something else she ruled out last year on the basis that it would hit working people.

It means nearly a million workers will start paying the higher rate of income tax, an extra 780,000 will start paying it for the first time, while 4,000 will be dragged into 45p rate reserved for the highest earners.

At the same time, welfare spending will continue to rise until the end of the decade, thanks in part to the chancellor’s announcement that the two-child benefit cap is to be scrapped.

Expect the Tories and Reform UK to point out this fact every day between now and the next general election.

As one senior Labour figure told HuffPost UK: “It is a disaster. We are on the wrong side of every statistic, argument, policy and public opinion.”

Earlier this week, the prime minister’s spokesman said that the government’s number one priority remains growing the economy.

But the Office for Budget Responsibility’s analysis of Reeves’s plans showed that while gross domestic product (GDP) will rise slightly more than expected this year, it will slow down in each of the next four years.

Labour’s attempts to tackle the cost of living are also floundering, with the OBR forecasting that inflation will be higher than expected in the next two years.

“We can say cost of living all we like, but people don’t really believe it,” said one gloomy Labour MP. “We can’t just keep saying ‘Liz Truss’ and pretending we have a philosophy.”

Another backbencher described the government as “politically rudderless”, but those Labour MPs happy with the Budget comfortably outnumbered the malcontents.

That was shown by the large number waving their Commons order papers as Reeves announced she was ending the two-child cap.

Moves to cut energy bills by £150 by reducing green levies have also been welcomed, as have inflation-busting rises in the national minimum wage and the living wage and a new mansion tax on homes worth more than £2 million.

“We’ve kept to the manifesto and kept to the fiscal rules,” an MP told HuffPost UK. “Ending the two-child benefit cap lifting isn’t a silver bullet, but is good politics within the party. Increasing the council tax levies on high value homes will go down well too.”

A minister added: “I think it was very good. Lots of public investment, great on energy prices, the cost of living and child poverty, and the fiscal rules are in place, which is the most important thing.”

Nevertheless, it is the wider voting public that Reeves, Keir Starmer and the rest of the party will have to convince, rather than their MPs and activists.

She is the most unpopular chancellor on record for a reason, and putting people’s taxes up by another £26 billion – having said she wouldn’t a year ago – is unlikely to turn things around.

Speculation that the Budget could trigger a leadership challenge to the prime minister can probably be put to bed, with the international bond markets so far giving it a cautious welcome.

But the moment of maximum danger for this iteration of the Labour government remains next May, when millions of voters will go to the polls across the UK to deliver their verdict on its performance so far.

The fear of many Labour people is that there was little in this Budget to suggest that it will be anything other than a bad night for their party.

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Exclusive: Labour MPs Offered Tours Of No.10 As PM Tries To Repair Relations With Backbenchers

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Labour MPs are being offered tours of 10 Downing Street as Keir Starmer tries to repair relations with his disgruntled backbenchers, HuffPost UK can reveal.

An email sent to members of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) offers them the chance to bring guests with them to see what goes on behind the famous black door.

The email, which was sent by PLP secretary Ella Watson, said: “We are pleased to announce that the PLP office, together with the No.10 political office, will be hosting a series of tours of No.10 Downing Street for MPs and their invited guests.”

MPs are then invited to fill in a booking form to arrange a time for their tour.

The email added: “If your booking is confirmed, the PLP office will contact you via the email address provided, and send you a pro-forma for you to complete with your guest names. It will also include important security information.”

Starmer has been criticised for not spending enough time in the House of Commons, and for failing to set aside time since becoming prime minister to get to know more of his 405 MPs.

One MP joked: “When one of the complaints is that the PLP feel like they are kept at arms length by No.10, a booking form really breaks down barriers.”

A backbencher added: “I did wonder if it was a ploy by the political team to learn the names of the PLP.”

Referring to criticism of the number of foreign trips the prime minister goes on, a Labour source said: “Has anyone asked if the PM wants to visit one day too?”

The Labour Party has been approached for comment.

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All The Things We Already Know Are Going To Be In Rachel Reeves’ Budget

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Rachel Reeves will deliver her make-or-break second Budget on Wednesday, with voters braced for a wave of tax increases as she tries to fill a black hole of between £20 and £30 billion in the public finances.

The chancellor is under huge pressure to deliver a financial statement that appeals to voters while not spooking the international money markets.

It is not an overstatement to suggest that her job – and that of her next door neighbour Keir Starmer – could rest on whether or not the Budget is a success.

The build-up to the big day has been far from plain sailing for Reeves, who dramatically U-turned on plans to raise billions by breaking Labour’s manifesto pledge not to put up income tax.

That has left her exploring a “smorgasbord” of options to raise the money she needs to balance the books.

Although nothing will be officially confirmed until Reeves delivers her statement at around 12.30pm on Wednesday, here is what we already will be in it.

Rail fare freeze

The government announced over the weekend that rail fares in England will be frozen next year – the first time in 30 years.

The freeze will apply to regulated fares – including season tickets and off-peak returns – until March 2027.

It only applies to services run by England-based train operating companies, but the government said it intends to “directly limit inflation” and hold down a “major component of everyday costs”.

Prescriptions kept to under £10

Patients will be able to save around £12 million next year as the chancellor intends to extend the freeze on NHS prescription charges.

The cost of a single prescription will remain at £9.90.

Minimum wage reforms

Labour will regularly name and shame employers who breach the national minimum wage rules.

A Treasury source said this is meant to protect vulnerable workers and prevent companies from hiding by hitting them with fines.

A boost for children’s playgrounds

More than 200 play areas are meant to be benefitting from this injection of £18m of cash.

It comes after the government’s Pride in Place programme has offered £5 billion for communities to regenerate public spaces.

Seizure of illegal vapes

Budget Force and HM Revenue & Customs will now be able to seize illegal vapes and issue £10,000 fines.

If business owners break the rules, they could face prison time.

From October 2026, all vapes will have to have a digital duty stamp with a QR code so they can be scanned to check which are fake.

Shops will have a six-month grace period to sell any unstamped stock.

Benefit fraud crackdown

Reeves claims she will be able to rack up £1.2 billion of savings as officials continue cracking down on incorrect Universal Credit payments up until 2031.

There is reportedly a team of 6,000 at the Department for Work and Pensions who have reviewed more than a million cases and already saved the taxpayer £1 billion.

Boost for pensioners

The chancellor is set to announce that 13 million pensioners will benefit from an above inflation rise to the State Pension next April, equating to more than £550 a year more.

It’s part of the government’s commitment to the triple lock, which means increasing the State Pension every year according to the highest of one of three figures: inflation, average earnings growth or 2.5%.

From next April, the rate of the full new State Pension will increase to just over £240.

Boost for secondary school libraries

Every secondary school in England is expected to benefit from a £5 million boost for school libraries – which works to around £1,400 per school.

Every child, regardless of their background, would then have access to a wide range of books.

350 new planners

Reeves is expected to put aside an extra £48 million to recruit 350 new planners as part of the government’s plan to “get Britain building”.

The chancellor would reportedly look at hiking up the number of graduate planners and launching a Planning Careers Hub.

Guaranteed student loan support for care leavers

Reeves will promise care leavers up to £13,500 of student loan support – the full amount – to level the playing field.

Only 14% of young people who leave care go to university at the moment, compared to 50% of the wider population. They are more likely to drop out due to financial barriers, too.

The current system limits maximum student support to those on the lowest incomes, under 25, who do not have a partner,

Mansion tax

The Times reported Reeves intends to use the current council tax system as the basis for a new property tax for large properties by revaluing the most valuable homes across council tax bands F, G and H.

Supposedly the government will allow homeowners to defer paying the tax until they move house or die.

This will hit 100,000 properties and supposedly raise £400-450 million from the levy.

Two-child cap

Labour is widely expected to lift the two-child benefit cap, which prevents family from claiming more of universal credit on any children after their second.

This is likely to cost £3 billion. The government did choose to keep the Tory policy in place during their first Budget last year, but subsequent backlash from the left-wing of Labour has likely played in encouraging Reeves to drop the cap.

Threshold freeze

Reeves is widely expected to freeze the income thresholds at which income tax rates start to apply in a move which would raise around £8 billion for the Treasury.

It’s referred to as a “stealth tax” because workers end up being dragged into a higher tax bracket when they get a pay rise in line with inflation.

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UK Accused Of ‘Blocking Ambition’ To Tackle Climate Change: ‘It’s A Major Setback’

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The UK has been been criticised for “blocking ambition” to tackle climate change by environmental campaigners.

COP30 – the UN’s 30th conference of parties – concluded this weekend following fraught discussions over how countries around the world can work together to address the declining environment.

After two weeks of intense meetings, the 194 countries present – the US did not send a delegation only agreed on a voluntary arrangement, rather than a legally binding deal, to begin discussions on a roadmap to gradually phasing out fossil fuels.

But, in a small win for campaigners, developed countries did agree to triple financial support for developing nations as they adapt to the climate crisis.

They will now receive £92 billion a year for adaption – although they will not get it until 2035.

Hannah Bond, co-CEO of the non-profit ActionAid UK, hit out at the British delegates in particular for this lacklustre conclusion to the summit, claiming the conference “still falls short” when it comes to finance.

Wealthier nations which typically produce more greenhouse gas emissions have been repeatedly asked to help developing countries cover the damage costs that come with environmental disasters.

However, the UK caused a stir when it chose not to give taxpayer cash to the COP30 forests fund even before this year’s conference began amid ongoing struggles within the British economy.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero told Politico the UK is still “incredibly supportive” of the initiative and would continue with “efforts to unlock private investment”.

ActionAid UK’s Bond said: “A COP that delivers progress behind closed doors and still falls short on finance cannot claim success.

“It’s a major setback that the UK’s refusal to cough up for the climate funding it owes, and to centre justice, meant a wider agreement collapsed.

“It’s like watching a house engulfed in fire while the arsonists stand around debating who should hold the hose.

“Without making big polluters pay up for the damage they’ve caused, climate justice remains impossible – yet the UK continues to push private finance and loans, deepening debt and forcing the Global South to foot the bill while allowing the ongoing financing of fossil fuels and deforestation.”

She added: “Women and communities in the Global South are already leading the solutions; now countries like the UK must stop blocking ambition, deliver real finance, and match the courage of those fighting for their as we fight for all of our futures.”

The director of climate research and policy at the campaign group Corporate Accountability, Rachel Rose Jackson, said the whole of the “global North should be ashamed” of their actions at COP30.

She said: “Yet again the EU and others, as the largest historical polluters, continue to orchestrate their great escape rather than do their fair share.

“The US, who told the world it wouldn’t even bother to show up, is still manipulating on the sidelines in Belém while it expands oil and gas drilling at home.

“And Big Polluters continue to write the rules of climate action with no protections in place.

“We must Kick Big Polluters Out, reset the system, demand the Global North do its fair share and pay its climate debt, and urgently and justly end the fossil fuel era that is poisoning us.

“These are the only measures by which a true success can be measured.”

Meena Raman, from the non-profit Third World Network, also hit out at the EU and the UK for “playing political games”.

She said: “The countries of the Global North, led by the EU and UK, effectively held the COP30 negotiations hostage – insisting on diluting commitments to climate finance for adaptation before allowing progress. Their public frustration over the supposed lack of ambition on mitigation was little more than posturing, designed to deflect attention from their own obligations.”

Romain Ioulalen, from Oil Change International, said wealthy countries were to blame for COP’s failures this year.

He said: “The EU, UK, Australia and other wealthy nations are to blame for COP’s failure to adopt a roadmap on fossil fuels by refusing to commit to phase out first or put any public money on the table for the crisis they have caused.“We didn’t win the full justice outcome we need in Belém, but we have new arenas to keep fighting.”

Meanwhile, Nikki Reisch from the Centre for International Environmental Law, called the final agreement an “empty deal”, adding: “COP30 provides a stark reminder that the answers to the climate crisis do not lie inside the climate talks – they lie with the people and movements leading the way toward a just, equitable, fossil-free future.”

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‘Zero Gratitude!’ Trump Attacks Ukraine Leaders Over Response To His Peace Plan

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Donald Trump has attacked the Ukrainian leadership for showing “zero gratitude” over the US’s new peace plan to end Russia’s war.

America has unveiled a new 28-point framework meant to resolve the Ukraine conflict in recent days and given Kyiv until Thursday to agree to it – or the US will withdraw access to its intelligence and weaponry.

However, there are fears the plan involves too much capitulation from Ukraine towards its aggressor, almost four years after Vladimir Putin invaded, and that it was authored with too much input from Russia.

The framework involves capping Ukraine’s armed forces at 600,000, giving up its weapons and ceding even more territory to Russia, which already controls a fifth of Ukraine’s sovereign land.

Some senators even claimed Trump’s top diplomat Marco Rubio described the plan as “Russia’s wish list”, a remark which the State Department has rejected.

Top western officials are now holding talks on the proposals in Geneva.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv faces a difficult choice between sacrificing the country’s dignity and losing a major ally.

After Zelenskyy posted on social media that “further work” is ongoing to make sure Ukrainian perspectives are included, the US president furiously took to social media.

“UKRAINE ‘LEADERSHIP’ HAS EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS, AND EUROPE CONTINUES TO BUY OIL FROM RUSSIA,” he wrote.

He pointed out that the US still sells weapons to Nato which are distributed to Ukraine.

Writing in a post on TruthSocial, the US president said: “The war between Rsussia and Ukraine is a violent and terrible one that, with strong and proper US and Ukrainian LEADERSHIP, would have NEVER HAPPENED.”

He repeated his previous claims that if the “2020 Presidential Election was not RIGGED & STOLEN” – a baseless allegation – then there would be “no Ukraine/Russia War”.

He added: “Putin would never have attacked!”

He then claimed he inherited a war that “SHOULD HAVE NEVER HAPPENED” which is a “LOSER FOR EVERYONE”.

Trump’s outburst comes after Zelenskyy wrote on X: “The Ukrainian delegation is working in Geneva today, focused on finding doable solutions to end the war, restore peace, and guarantee lasting security.

“There have already been brief reports from our delegation members about the outcomes of their first meetings and talks. Currently, there is an understanding that the American proposals may include a number of elements based on Ukrainian perspectives and critical for Ukrainian national interests.

“Further work is ongoing to make all elements truly effective in achieving the main goal anticipated by our people: to finally put an end to the bloodshed and war.”

Trump has been determined to resolve the war in Ukraine ever since he returned to office in January, even claiming he could end it within 24 hours.

He initially seemed to favour Putin’s side, even rolling out the red carpet for him for a rare face-to-face summit in Alaska, before getting frustrated with Russia for not negotiating and slapping fossil fuel sanctions on Moscow.

But this new deal suggests the president has swung back towards backing Russia once again in order to end the war by any means possible.

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Trump’s ‘Meaningless’ Ukraine Deal Stunned The West – But He May Have Had An Ulterior Motive

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Donald Trump appears to have made yet another major U-turn by working with Russia to come up with a peace deal to end the Ukraine war – without involving Ukraine.

The 28-point plan was leaked this week, and while it is yet to be confirmed by any of the main parties, it is being discussed by international leaders.

But this draft framework is very favourable towards Moscow and meets many of Vladimir Putin’s pre-war demands from Ukraine – including significant territory concessions by Kyiv.

The US reportedly wants this early draft signed as soon as next Thursday – even threatening to withdraw intelligence and weapons unless it agrees to it – although Ukraine has already pushed back.

However, it was not too long ago that Trump was demanding Putin negotiate over the deal.

He even tried to corner him by putting sanctions on Russian oil, which officially came into effect on Friday.

So where did this deal come from – and will it even be effective?

What is in Trump’s 28-point plan for peace in Ukraine?

According to reports in Axios, Reuters and the Financial Times, Ukraine is expected to give up its claim to its sovereign territory, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk completely – so they become de fact Russian.

Kherson and Zaporzhzhia would be frozen along the lines of contact, while Russia will “relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions”.

While the leaked draft claimed Ukraine would receive security guarantees, they were not listed. The US would then receive compensation for that guarantee, according to the plan.

Ukraine would also not join Nato, despite having a long-standing ambition to join the defence alliance, and no Nato troops would be stationed in Ukraine.

European fighter jets would be “stationed” in Poland – although details as to which countries would provide these jets remain unclear.

Ukraine’s armed forces would be limited to 600,000 and a Ukrainian election would be held within 100 days.

A joint US-Russia working group would be set up to look at the ongoing security issues, while Russia would return to the global community – and sanctions would be lifted.

Could Trump’s plan work?

Senior consulting fellow for Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme, Keir Giles, seemed unconvinced – and pointed out a clear flaw with Trump’s plan.

He told HuffPost UK the path towards peace is not as “one-sided as the US might think”, because Ukraine has to have a say for a deal to work.

Giles also said the US’s influence over Ukraine weakens every time the White House withdraws more of its aid.

He suggested that deal had been created so it looks like a “two-sided process” but Russia has not compromised on anything significant.

Dr Simon Bennett, director of the civil safety and security unit at Leicester University, said: “As far as Ukraine is concerned, the plan is a non-starter. Ukraine will never surrender that portion of the Donbas still under its control.

“The Ukrainian people would never stand for it. They have spilled too much blood and treasure to surrender their land.”

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has insisted he will not betray Ukraine’s national interest while he considers Trump’s plan.

But he acknowledged that Kyiv faced losing a major partner or losing its dignity.

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I held a meeting with Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha and our diplomatic team. We are working to ensure that Ukraine’s national interests are taken into account at every level of our relations with partners. Right now, there are meetings, calls, and work on… pic.twitter.com/vQl47aHVRq

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 21, 2025

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Right now, there are meetings, calls, and work on… pic.twitter.com/vQl47aHVRq— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 21, 2025\n\n\n","options":{"_hide_media":{"label":"Hide photos, videos, and cards","value":false},"_maxwidth":{"label":"Adjust width","placeholder":"220-550, in px","value":""},"_theme":{"value":"","values":{"dark":"Use dark theme"}}},"provider_name":"Twitter","thumbnail_height":1366,"thumbnail_url":"https://pbs.twimg.com/media/G6R-pdZXgAAXSL0.jpg:large","thumbnail_width":2048,"title":"Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський on Twitter / 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I held a meeting with Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Andrii Sybiha and our diplomatic team. We are working to ensure that Ukraine’s national interests are taken into account at every level of our relations with partners. Right now, there are meetings, calls, and work on… pic.twitter.com/vQl47aHVRq

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 21, 2025

Why is the timing around this framework questionable?

Bennett told HuffPost UK that Trump is very keen to get a deal over the line because of his own personal ambitions – and pressures.

He said: “Trump is desperate to claim that he ended the war between Ukraine and Russia, first, because he covets the Nobel Peace Prize, and secondly, because he believes this sort of foreign policy initiative will distract his MAGA base from the Epstein scandal that – depending on what we find in the files when they are released – may cripple his presidency.”

Giles seconded this notion.

The consulting fellow also questioned whether Trump’s deal was “supposed to be released in this form” or if there had been some kind of manipulation from the Russian side to release it early, in a bid to force the US’s hand.

Giles rebuffed claims that Putin’s top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, had torpedoed any negotiation with the States after a frosty exchange with his American counterpart in October, saying it was clear US’s efforts for peace in Ukraine were always going to continue.

When it comes to Russia’s motives for appearing more willing to negotiate – while actually compromising on almost nothing – Bennett speculated that Putin might be more interested in a peace plan now because of an ongoing resource issue.

“Russia’s progress is painfully slow. Despite its vast resources, the Russian army is failing in the field. Which is why Putin is looking for an off-ramp. He knows his campaign is failing,” Bennett said.

Interestingly, Ukraine also marks the Day of Dignity and Freedom on November 21, the day Trump gave Kyiv a deadline to agree to peace.

Ukraine’s two most recent anti-Russia revolts, the Orange Revolution of 2004 and the Revolution of Dignity of 2013, began on this date.

What happens next?

While Ukraine weighs up how to respond, Giles predicted negotiations will go “round and round” because Trump’s deal is “meaningless and unenforceable”.

Zelenskyy will certainly have to be careful not to outright reject the plan, having been on the receiving end of Trump’s wrath multiple times already this year.

He will want to be seen as co-operative, while still pushing back on the strategy.

Giles also predicted that the “war might not be decided on the frontline,” if the trend of Ukraine being able to better defend itself continues.”

He added that “we should expect surprises from Ukraine” as the war continues and Kyiv is forced to become more self-reliant.

He pointed to the recent attacks on Russian oil refineries and said “the means by which Ukraine can deliver an effect might change the risk-benefit of war for people in the Kremlin.”

Verified images show one of Russia’s largest oil refineries was set on fire twice this week by Ukrainian attacks.

Similarly, Bennett said: “This is Kyiv’s war, not Washington’s war. Trump surrendered his leadership and moral authority when he courted Putin in Alaska.

“This is now Europe’s war. It is nothing to do with a perfidious United States. As I have said before, this is 1939. Europe has again been abandoned by the US. We have to fight and win this on our own.”

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