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Analysis: Rachel Reeves Was In Punchy Form – But War In The Middle East Could Ruin Her Economic Plans

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Rachel Reeves looked as though she was enjoying herself as she took aim at Labour’s political opponents while delivering her Spring Statement.

With no new policies to announce, the chancellor decided to use a decent chunk of her time at the despatch box attacking Reform UK, the Conservatives and the Green Party.

“The Tories left our country, our people and our allies exposed: They had no plan and no intention to fund their pledge to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence,” she said.

“Reform would go one step further by ditching our allies and siding with Russia, while the Green Party wants to take us out of Nato and jeopardise our alliances.

“So let me be clear: It is Labour and only Labour that can provide social justice, national security and fiscal responsibility.”

In another section, she dismissed Reform as “a Tory tribute act” following the defections of the likes of Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.

“They may have changed the colour of their rosettes, but the British people won’t forget that they are the exact same people that wrecked our public services and wrecked our public finances in the last Tory government,” she said.

“The same people, the same policies and the same disastrous outcomes for working people.”

But behind the political knockabout, the chancellor must know that the fate of the UK economy – and perhaps even the Labour government – depends on the outcome of the latest war in the Middle East.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) may have forecast that inflation will come down, but that was before the US and Israel’s bombing of Iran sparked an energy crisis which has seen gas prices soar in the past 48 hours.

If that ends up feeding through into people’s bills, Labour will pay a huge political price.

The same goes for the OBR’s forecasts on economic growth, as well as government borrowing and national debt.

A prolonged conflict in the Middle East, and the accompanying economic turmoil which would ensue, would blow another huge hole in the already-stretched public finances.

With unemployment set to be higher than expected this year and the tax burden set to hit another post-war high, yet more economic uncertainty is the last thing the chancellor needs.

“This government has the right economic plan for our country,” Reeves insisted.

“A plan that is even more important in a world that in the last few days has become yet more uncertain.

“With the unfolding conflict in Iran and the Middle East, it is incumbent on me and on this government to chart a course through that uncertainty, to secure our economy against shocks and protect families from the turbulence that we see beyond our borders.”

She may have talked a good game, but the chancellor knows that events thousands of miles away have the potential to destroy her economic plans and plunge the government into political crisis they may not recover from.

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Labour Accused Of By-Election Dirty Tricks Over ‘Fictitious’ Tactical Voting Group

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Labour is embroiled in a dirty tricks row over a campaign leaflet featuring a “fictitious” tactical voting company.

The offending literature has been put through voters’ doors on the eve of Thursday’s crunch Gorton and Denton by-election.

It says: “The Tactical Choice says Vote Labour. Based on a new prediction made in the last 24 hours we are recommending voting Labour.”

However, no organisation called “Tactical Choice” appears to exist.

The leaflet says it is promoted on behalf of Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia.

Labour is locked in a three-way battle with the Green Party and Reform UK in the seat.

Bookies make the Greens odds-on favourites, followed by Reform and then Labour, for whom Andrew Gwynne won the seat at the 2024 general election with a majority of nearly 13,500.

Two real tactical voting organisations – Tactical.Vote and StopTheTories.Vote – have already recommended voters back the Greens to stop Reform winning.

The leaflet was sent "on behalf of" Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia.
The leaflet was sent “on behalf of” Labour candidate Angeliki Stogia.

Green party

A Green Party spokesperson said: “In a final throw of desperation, Labour have made up an entirely fictitious organisation called ‘Tactical Choice’ referencing them on their final leaflet.

“They’ve had to make this up because every actual tactical voting organisation has endorsed the Green Party as the best hope to keep Reform out in this election.

“We have great faith in the electorate seeing through these desperate Labour lies and uniting behind the Greens in the by-election tomorrow to beat Reform.

“Hope versus hate is on the ballot tomorrow. Let’s make sure the Greens’ message of hope wins.”

A Labour campaign spokesman did not deny that Tactical Choice appear to have been made up by the party in a bid to sway voters.

He said: “The Greens have been pumping out fake news and deploying dirty tactics for weeks. We’ll take no lectures from them.

“The only way to defeat Reform in this by-election is by backing Labour.”

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Green By-Election Candidate Slaps Down Reform Rival’s Offer For Head-To-Head Debate

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The Green Party candidate for the Gorton and Denton by-election has rejected her Reform rival’s invitation for a head-to-head debate.

While both parties have described the crunch contest to win another seat in parliament as a case of “Green vs Reform”, Hannah Spencer hit back at Matt Goodwin by pointing out they had already debated in two public forums.

Meanwhile, Labour insisted the Reform move demonstrated they were picking up more support in the traditionally red seat that expected.

It comes as the contest in the Greater Manchester, expected to be a three-horse race between the Greens, Labour and Reform, heats up.

In a post on X, Goodwin wrote: “I am hereby challenging the Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer to a one-on-one debate about the future of Gorton & Denton.”

In his attached letter to Spencer, the GB News preseneter said previous platforms had only offered one-minute answers to multiple candidates, meaning there was “limited room for a serious discussion”.

“As you have said yourself, this by-election is now a two-horse race between Reform and the Green Party,” he said, claiming there had been plenty of “misinformation” about the run-up to polling day.

He offered for it to be hosted by a Green-friendly platform with a moderator of their choosing, with his “only condition” being that it is recorded and published in full afterwards.

But, in a message to HuffPost UK, Spencer hit back: “Hi Matt, we literally just debated in the BBC studio and last week at the Manchester Evening News hustings.

“It’s not a game of the best of three. It sounds like you’re concerned you didn’t come across very well and want another go.

“I’m not sure anyone wants any more of your hot air and I’m focusing my time now on knocking on doors to talk about what really matters to the people of Gorton and Denton.”

Labour told HuffPost UK this race was “Labour versus Reform” last week.

Following on from Goodwin’s offer, a Labour spokesperson said: “This is a cynical move from a campaign that knows its struggling, and that the Labour vote is holding.

“While Matthew and Hannah play student politics, Labour’s Angeliki Stogia is busy, out on the doors, listening to what matters to the people of Gorton and Denton.”

Labour’s deputy leader Lucy Powell also responded to Goodwin’s letter, saying: “Funny. Matt knows what we know – he’s not doing as well as he’d hoped so is trying to big up the Greens (again) as his only route to victory is to split and suppress the Labour vote (which he knows is holding).

“That, or he’s frit after Angeliki slayed him at the hustings.”

An almighty row broke out at the Manchester Evening News’ debate last week when Stogia told Goodwin that “women are scared to leave the house” due to the rise in far-right rhetoric.

He replied: “I’m not going to be lectured to by a Labour politician from a party that consistently failed to investigate the mass rape and sexual abuse of working-class kids in this country for 30 years.

“And the reason I have security is because I have very real threats to my life in an area where people assure me everything is fine, and clearly in some parts of this country integration is not working as it should be.”

These spats come after Labour have mocked the Greens for misspelling “Gorton” on some campaign posters, while Rayner previously joked Reform could not find the constituency “on a map”.

There are 11 candidates standing in the by-election in total, including Charlotte Anne Cadden for the Conservatives and Jackie Pearcey for the Liberal Democrats.

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Exclusive: By-Election Tensions Between Greens And Labour Rise Amid Fears Over Splitting Left-Wing Vote

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“This is a battle for the soul of the nation,” Zack Polanski cried as he addressed a crowded room of Green Party campaigners in Gorton and Denton. “All eyes are on this by-election!”

The party leader is not wrong. While Keir Starmer’s authority over Labour is hanging on by a thread, the Greens and Reform are desperate to prove their sudden boom in support is not just a passing fad.

There’s a sense the Gorton and Denton by-election could be a turning point in British politics, especially if either of the up-and-coming parties – the Greens or Reform – manage to clinch the typically red constituency.

Pollsters believe there’s no clear winner yet, though bookies have slashed the odds for the Greens to win after £90,000 was wagered on the party’s candidate, Hannah Spencer, to win the crunch vote on February 26.

But, as tensions rise, there’s one clear issue which could be make or break for all of the candidates involved: the splitting of the left-wing vote.

While Labour is known for securing the centre-left ballots, the Greens’ growing popularity under Polanski means many disillusioned voters are flocking to their left-wing alternative.

Rob Ford, professor of political science at Manchester University, warned in a Substack post: “Both Labour leaning and Green leaning voters strongly prefer either party to Reform, and would very likely coalesce behind a left bloc front-runner if they knew for sure who that was. But they can’t because there isn’t one.”

He warned: “Both parties are therefore furiously posting leaflets into this information vacuum, but by doing so they only thicken the electoral fog of war that impedes their progress.”

A man walks past a campaign poster for labour candidate Angeliki Stogia in an estate agents window in Longsight on February 11, 2026 in Manchester, United Kingdom.
A man walks past a campaign poster for labour candidate Angeliki Stogia in an estate agents window in Longsight on February 11, 2026 in Manchester, United Kingdom.

Christopher Furlong via Getty Images

Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell escalated tensions last week when she accused Polanski of trying to take support from her party to boost his profile nationally.

“I fear you are being played by Reform and have a different agenda,” she wrote in a scathing letter. “You know as well as I do, that the Green Party just doesn’t have the base or the breadth of support across the constituency to win the seat.”

She accused him of running a disingenuous campaign using misleading bar charts and misrepresenting political academics in their leaflets.

The Green Party leader said he had not replied, telling HuffPost UK: “I don’t think it’s worthy of a response, comparable to a “clear, desperate, scraping the barrel attack line”.

The Greens have also criticised Labour for using “bullshit” polls in their campaign.

“If Labour think they’re in this race, then they clearly haven’t knocked on a single door.”

– Zack Polanski

When asked again if he had a response to Labour’s criticism, Polanski fired back: “I think the rebuttal is that from the moment the firing gun was started, this by-election is happening in the context of a Labour MP who made some deeply problematic comments.”

Andrew Gwynne was suspended from Labour a year ago after it emerged that he had made some offensive messages in a WhatsApp group.

He announced he was standing down in January, leading to widespread speculation about just who Labour would select as their candidate.

Polanski claimed Labour has taken people’s “votes for granted for years”, and alluded to the ongoing fallout around ex-Labour grandee Peter Mandelson’s ties to dead paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.

“They blew it before the contest even started,” Polanski alleged. “So it’s always been the Green Party versus Reform.

“If they think they’re in this race, then they clearly haven’t knocked on a single door.”

Labour sources deny this, insisting it was still all to play for and dismissing bookmakers’ predictions.

“It’s us versus Reform,” a party insider insisted.

Reform did not respond when repeatedly approached for comment about who they saw as their main rivals.

Reform leader Nigel Farage, centre right, stands with prospective candidate Matt Goodwin, centre left, and supporters during a campaign visit to Gorton and Denton in Manchester, England, Friday, Jan. 30, 2026.
Reform leader Nigel Farage, centre right, stands with prospective candidate Matt Goodwin, centre left, and supporters during a campaign visit to Gorton and Denton in Manchester, England, Friday, Jan. 30, 2026.

via Associated Press

Polanski admitted in his Bold Politics podcast this week, that his “nightmare scenario” would be for Labour to “do disastrously” but to still take enough of the vote “so Reform get through”.

But, when asked if this means he is worried about the left-wing vote being split, Polanski told HuffPost: “The Labour Party couldn’t be any less a left-wing one than if they were trying not to be at the moment.

“In fact, I would consider them closer to Reform than they are to the Green Party,” referring to government efforts to reduce the welfare bill and its response to the Gaza war.

The London Assembly member – who decided not to run for the Manchester seat and save himself for constituency in the capital instead – went on to criticise Labour for not allowing regional mayor Andy Burnham to run for the seat.

Polanski added that he does not agree with the Greater Manchester mayor on “everything”.

However, he noted: “The fact that he’s apparently too left-wing or too progressive to even be their candidate in this constituency demonstrates how the Labour Party, under any measurable criteria, cannot be considered a left-wing vote.”

Might the Greens have been more open to a deal if Burnham was permitted to run as Labour’s candidate?

Andy Burnham the Mayor of Manchester arrives a fringe meeting during the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool, England, Sept. 29, 2025.
Andy Burnham the Mayor of Manchester arrives a fringe meeting during the annual Labour Party conference in Liverpool, England, Sept. 29, 2025.

via Associated Press

Polanski said definitely not, but added: “I do think it’s also true that the contest would have been friendly between the Green Party and the Labour Party had Andy Burnham run.”

A Labour campaign insider claimed this comment only proved it’s the Greens who have altered the tone of the contest with Labour, not the other way around.

Meanwhile, a Green activist suggested to HuffPost in passing that their party would not have had a chance at winning if Burnham had managed to thrown his hat into the ring.

Even so, it’s hard to get away from the speculation that the Greens are draining Labour’s support right now.

Polanski claimed one Labour parliamentarian had told him just the thought of him encouraged Labour figures to become more left-wing.

He said: “A Labour MP told me every time some of their colleagues think I’m going to run against them, they get a bit more left-wing and progressive.”

“Labour MPs keep worrying that I’m coming for them,” he added.

While the Greens have secured some Labour councillor defections, the party has not yet managed to persuade any serving MPs over to their side, despite their best efforts.

Polanski shrugged that concern off. He said: “Defections used to really be on my mind because I thought it was a way of increasing our poll rating, increasing our membership, and making those more on the national stage.

“But we’ve got that anyway without [defections].”

Meanwhile, Labour insiders firmly told HuffPost that they were confident their party still had a chance, even as the government in Westminster was in turmoil.

“Keir Starmer is only coming up a little on the doorstep,” a campaigner insisted, furiously downplaying any impact the chaos in Westminster – or Polanski – might have on their chances at retaining the seat.

Both the Greens and Labour have clearly singled out Reform as their main opponents.

But, with briefing rows like these, the biggest threat to both left-wing parties seems to be to one another – especially for this by-election.

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Odds Slashed On Greens By-Election Victory After Big Money Bets

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Bookies have slashed the odds on the Green Party winning the Gorton and Denton by-election after a flurry of big-money bets.

HuffPost UK has been told that £90,000 was wagered on the party’s candidate, Hannah Spencer, winning the crunch contest on February 26.

In response, Ladbrokes have installed the Greens as heavy odds-on favourites at 1/3, with Reform UK next on 3/1 and Labour the rank outsiders at 10/1.

In a post on X, the bookmakers said it had been “a volatile day in the betting markets for Gorton and Denton”.

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It’s been a volatile day in the betting markets for Gorton & Denton

Here’s how we bet currently:

🟢Greens – 1/3 (75%)
➡️Reform UK – 3/1 (25%)
🔴Labour – 10/1 (9%)
200/1 bar https://t.co/nakHgF3GMJ

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 12, 2026

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It’s been a volatile day in the betting markets for Gorton & Denton

Here’s how we bet currently:

🟢Greens – 1/3 (75%)
➡️Reform UK – 3/1 (25%)
🔴Labour – 10/1 (9%)
200/1 bar https://t.co/nakHgF3GMJ

— Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) February 12, 2026

A Green Party source told HuffPost UK: “Word on the ground is that Green support is growing and we’re seeing it in our canvassing. So no surprise that people are putting on bets too.

“But we take absolutely nothing for granted. We’re fully focussed on knocking on doors and raising awareness of our incredible candidate, Hannah Spencer.

“Labour’s vote is in freefall and this looks to have worsened further in recent days.”

The by-election was called after the resignation of sitting MP Andrew Gwynne, who retained the seat for Labour in 2024 with a majority of nearly 13,500.

If the party was to lose it, pressure would once again be piled on Keir Starmer, who survived an coup attempt earlier this week when Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar called on him to resign.

A Labour campaign spokesman said: “Zack Polanski is trying to talk his way into the race, but we’re hearing it on the doors every day – the Greens simply can’t win this by-election. A Labour campaign spokesman said: “Zack Polanski is trying to talk his way into the race, but we’re hearing it on the doors every day – the Greens simply can’t win this by-election.

“Only Labour’s Angeliki Stogia can beat Reform in Gorton and Denton. A vote for anyone else will risk letting in Reform’s Matthew Goodwin and his toxic politics.”

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