Mel Stride has become the latest candidate to be kicked out of the Tory leadership contest.
The former cabinet minister came last in a ballot of Conservative MPs.
They will now go forward to the Tory conference in Birmingham later this month, where they will each seek to convince MPs and party members that they have what it takes to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader.
Jenrick once again came top of the latest ballot with 33 votes, followed by Badenoch on 28, with Tugendhat and Cleverly both on 21 and Stride in last place on 16.
Fewer than 10% of the public think any of the Tory leadership candidates would make them favourites to win the next election, a damning poll has found.
The survey, by the More in Common think-tank, found that 34% of voters replied “none of them” when asked which of the six hopefuls would the Tories most likely to form the next government. Some 36% said they “don’t know”.
Even those who voted Tory in the last election are less-than-convinced by the choice on offer, the poll found.
Nearly one-third of them (32) said they “don’t know” which candidate will give the party the best chance of winning next time around, while 16% said “none of them”.
Cleverly again came top on 15%, with Patel second once more on 10%, with Badenoch on 9%, Jenrick and Tugendhat on 8% and Stride once again on 2%.
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The poll findings
More in Common
The poll also found that Patel is the only candidate recognised by more than half of the electorate.
Some 52% correctly identified the former home secretary when shown a picture of her, with 44% recognising Cleverly.
Badenoch came third with 37%, Jenrick was next on 21%, then Tugendhat on 19% and Stride with 12%.
Whoever wins also faces an uphill battle when they take on Keir Starmer, the poll found.
According to the public, none of them would make a better prime minister than the Labour leader, who enjoys a comfortable lead over each of his potential rivals.
Starmer is ahead of each of the candidates on who would make the better PM.
More in Common
The findings were published as Tory MPs prepare for the first ballot of the contest, when the number of candidates will be reduced from six to five.
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A second ballot will take place next week, after which the final four candidates will try to woo the party faithful at the Tory conference in Birmingham.
MPs will then choose the final two, who will be voted on my Tory members before the winner is announced on November 2.
The small rump of 121 Tory MPs who survived the party’s general election drubbing will return to Westminster on Monday with one item on their agenda – choosing the man or woman to take the fight to Keir Starmer for the next five years.
They will hardly have time to draw breath before the first ballot of the contest takes place 48 hours later, when one of the six candidates will be unceremoniously dumped by their colleagues.
Stride, a close ally of outgoing leader Rishi Sunak and the man who was rarely off our TV screens during the general election campaign, is seen as the most likely to fall at the first hurdle.
But many Tory MPs have told HuffPost UK that the outcome of Wednesday’s ballot is too close to call, and that Stride could well survive at the expense of a more fancied rival.
One former cabinet minister said: “I wouldn’t bet on Mel going in the first round. He’s got a hardcore of support in the parliamentary party and 15 or 20 MPs might be enough to get him through the first round.”
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A veteran MP added: “I think Rob and Kemi will come first and second, but any one of the other four could go on Wednesday. It will be very close and a few votes here and there could swing it.”
Although Badenoch remains the bookies’ favourite to emerge victorious in the end, many MPs have been surprised by her relative anonymity over the summer.
While her five rivals have been criss-crossing the country meeting party members and doing media interviews, the shadow communities secretary has made a virtue of taking two weeks off to recharge her batteries.
“Articles portraying politicians negatively for having a family life have done much to toxify the environment for MPs – we can do better than this,” Badenoch said earlier this month as she defended her decision to go on holiday with her family while parliament is in recess.
In a quote almost designed to annoy her rivals, a Badenoch ally told Guido Fawkes: “The general election campaign was long and hard and painful. I seriously doubt any Tory members, candidates or MPs will seriously begrudge the next leader of the Conservative Party having some time away with her family.”
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But one currently undecided Tory MP told HuffPost UK: “I think Kemi has under-performed so far. It’s been a very casual campaign. I think the story after Wednesday will be that she has performed below expectations.”
A shadow cabinet member said: “A few colleagues have expressed surprise at Kemi’s decision to go on holiday. We’re all knackered after the election, but if you want to be turning round the fortunes of the party you have to show that hunger.
“Some people are wondering whether she lacks the necessary drive. There have been questions about her work ethic in the past.
“The initial view was that Kemi would come racing out the blocks with big name endorsements to build up a lot of momentum, and there’s a lot of surprise that that hasn’t happened.”
But a Badenoch aide hit back: “The MPs complaining to you are backing other candidates and trying to make this a thing, but it isn’t.
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“Most MPs understand the value of taking a break after the election, and clearly the members care more about getting the best candidate rather than the one who did the most media in August. In the only truly independent poll by YouGov Kemi was the outright leader by a distance.”
“I think Rob and Kemi will come first and second, but any one of the other four could go on Wednesday.”
In that poll of Tory members, carried out a week ago, Badenoch had the backing of 24%, with Tugendhat second on 16%, Cleverly on 14%, Jenrick on 12%, Patel on 11% and Stride on just 2%.
Nevertheless, Jenrick – viewed as Badenoch’s main rival in the battle to be the standard bearer for the Tory right – has won plaudits among MPs for his campaign so far.
“I think Rob has got off to the best start, but it’s a long race,” said one backbencher.
“He’s definitely run the most professional, switched-on campaign, there’s no doubt about that.
“I would say at this moment, he is the frontrunner of six. But of course, that doesn’t mean he would be the frontrunner if he makes it to the final two.”
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Kemi Badenoch is the bookies’ favourite to be next Tory leader.
via Associated Press
The five who survive the first ballot on Wednesday will be reduced to four in another ballot of Tory MPs the week after.
They will then take part in a leadership beauty contest at the party’s annual conference in Birmingham at the end of September, after which MPs will whittle them down to the final two, with Tory members then having the final say on who should be the party’s new leader.
He or she will be announced on November 2, after which they will take on the Herculean task of trying to take the Conservatives back to power in 2029.
Whoever is chosen to succeed Rishi Sunak will be tasked with turning the Conservatives into a united, competent opposition who can convincingly present themselves to voters as a coherent, alternative government in five years’ time.
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The evidence of the last few years, in which the warring party has burned through four leaders and suffered its worst ever election defeat, suggest the chances of success are remote.
But one Badenoch backer told HuffPost UK: “I actually think the leadership contest so far has been quite a civil affair, which suggests that the party is ready to finally come together whoever wins. But time will tell.”
She made a series of inflammatory remarks ahead of some London protests, claiming the police were guilty of having a left-wing bias, and hitting out at “pro-Palestinian mobs” ahead of a wave of right-wing violence in Whitehall.
She was promptly sacked, triggering a major cabinet reshuffle days later.
But, the Home Office published the annual report and accounts for 2023 to 2024 today, and revealed Braverman received the generous “non-taxable exit payment” at the end of last year.
That was the second time Braverman had to resign as home secretary; she was fired by Liz Truss after she breached the ministerial code by sharing an official document from her personal email address with a parliamentary colleague.
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She was reappointed six days later when Sunak was in No.10, after the new PM said she had “accepted her mistake”.
A Labour source told HuffPost UK: “The fact that Suella Braverman was able to walk away with a tax-free payout of this size after being sacked for the second time in a year demonstrates how the ministerial severance system was brought into disrepute by the last Tory government, and why it will need to change under Labour.”
Braverman was expected to try and run to be the next Tory leader after Sunak announced he would be stepping down following their historic election defeat.
However, she announced she was withdrawing from it – even though she supposedly had the 10 MPs required to to enter the contest – because the “traumatised” party did not want to listen to her take on why it failed.
Many supporters expected to back her reportedly switched to fellow right-wing Tory Robert Jenrick after the election.
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Robert Jenrick is standing to be the next Tory leader
via Associated Press
Jenrick, the former immigration minister under Sunak, resigned from the government last December – but he also received a generous tax-free pay-out, according to the Home Office accounts.
The contest to replace Rishi Sunak as Conservative Party leader has officially begun, as Tories are gradually started to put themselves forward.
After enduring a historic defeat in the general election and walking away with just 121 seats in total, former PM Sunak said he was stepping back from the helm of the party when his successor was chosen.
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As the fight for the soul of the party begins, it remains to be seen whether it will end up going for a more centrist figure, or leaning further right.
Here’s who has officially announced their leadership bids, who is expected to – and how long this whole competition is going to go on for…
1. James Cleverly
Shadow home secretary James Cleverly
via Associated Press
The former home secretary (who now shadows the same role) announced his plan to run on Tuesday, a day before nominations actually opened.
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Seen as a moderate within the Conservative ranks, he has said the Conservatives need to “re-establish our reputation as the party who, in government, helps grow the economy, helps people achieve their goals, their dream and their aspirations”.
Alluding to the party’s historic loss at the ballot box, he said: “We must ditch the self-indulgent infighting and be ready to deliver when the next chance comes.”
According to a Savanta poll shared with Sky News, Cleverly has a net favourability of -9 with the general public.
He held several ministerial jobs under Boris Johnson before being appointed as the education secretary at the end of the ex-PM’s premiership.
He was foreign secretary for both Liz Truss and Sunak, and home secretary from November 2023 and July 2024.
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2. Tom Tugendhat
Shadow security minister Tom Tugendhat
Anadolu via Anadolu via Getty Images
Formerly the security minister, Tugendhat now shadows the same role on the other side of the House.
Although he launched his campaign with a bang by saying he would consider leaving the ECHR (European Convention on Human Rights), he is usually perceived as a moderate in the one nation wing of the party.
He argued in an article for The Telegraph that he would prepared to leave the ECHR if institutions make it harder to control the country’s borders, claiming this was a “common sense Conservative position” to take.
The former army officer suggested defence spending should be pulled up to 3% of GDP, and claimed he was running “to be the next Conservative prime minister”.
He is expected to try and appeal to Tory members more sympathetic to Reform UK.
His campaign manager, Tory MP Danny Kruger, said Jenrick has the “energy, temperament and policy agenda to take on our rivals and lead us back to power in five years.”
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He was not included in the Savanta poll because he did not run in the last leadership election in 2022.
Who else is expected to run?
Mel Stride, shadow work and pensions secretary, admitted at the weekend he was “considering” putting himself forward – he held onto his seat in the election by just 61 votes.
Former home secretary Suella Braverman and her predecessor Priti Patel are both expected to put themselves forward in the coming days.
Kemi Badenoch, shadow housing, communities and local government secretary, may also join the race.
Shadow health secretary Victoria Atkins was expected to run, but she said she would not be in a social media post.
Rishi Sunak announced his resignation as Tory Party leader when he lost the general election
via Associated Press
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How will the process work?
The nominations for the candidates opened on July 24.
Each candidate needs to secure backing from 10 other MPs by July 29 to make it to the next round.
But, only around 100 MPs will be able to support a chosen candidate.
That’s because MPs who are whips or who sit on the executive backbencher 1922 committee cannot support a candidate.
It means only 10 Tories – at most – will be able to move to progress past this point in the race.
If two or more candidates get through, a campaign will take place throughout the summer.
In September, MPs cast their votes on the remaining candidates.
The four with the most votes will be selected, and all offered a chance to speak at the Tory party conference, (from September 29 to October 2), and MPs will vote again.
The two with the most vote go through to the next hurdle.
The remaining pair will then have to go before the party members, who will vote on their favourite candidate in an online ballot which closes on October 31.
To vote, members must have been “active” when the whole contest opened in July, and been members for at least 90 days before the ballot closes.
The new leader and official leader of the opposition will be confirmed on November 2, and Sunak’s time leading the Conservatives will officially end.
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They will become the sixth leader of the Tory Party since 2016.
A Tory minister was asked if he was “in denial” after he tried to play down the significance of the party’s latest by-election disasters.
Robert Jenrick insisted “the public are undecided” about Labour, despite their seismic victories last Thursday.
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The Conservatives lost in Tamworth despite having a majority of nearly 20,000, while Keir Starmer’s party managed to overturn a 25,000 majority in Nadine Dorries’ former seat of Mid Bedfordshire.
But appearing on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme this morning, Jenrick, who is the immigration minister, insisted Rishi Sunak is “making good progress” on his promises to voters, which he said were in tune with people’s priorities.
Presenter Victoria Derbyshire replied: “It doesn’t seem to be having any effect though if you look at what happened in Tamworth and Mid Beds.
“In Tamworth Labour overturned a majority of almost 19,000, in Mid Beds a majority of 25,000.”
Jenrick said: “With all due respect I wouldn’t read too much into by-elections – governments tend to lose by-elections.”
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But Derbyshire hit back: “They are massive majorities with double digit swings – are you in denial?”
The minister replied: “I think we all have to listen to what the voters are saying in those by-elections, but we also shouldn’t read too much into them.
“My sense is that the public are undecided, they’re certainly not sold on Keir Starmer.”
Derbyshire interrupted: “Labour just won those two by-elections.”
Jenrick said: “The key thing for us as a party right now is not to worry about party politics but to deliver on the public’s priorities.”
Derbyshire then asked Jenrick how worried he was about losing his own seat of Newark, where he has a majority of 21,816.
“It would be foolish to be complacent – we all need to work hard and be good constituency members of parliament every day,” he said.
Immigration minister Robert Jenrick was left squirming on Sky News as he was presented with proof of the government’s failures.
Presenter Trevor Phillips told him “you’re not doing very well” on the five pledges Rishi Sunak made to voters at the start of the year.
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The prime minister vowed to halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce national debt, cut NHS waiting lists and stop the small boats carrying asylum seekers across the Channel.
But Jenrick was shown a graphic demonstrating how the government is failing on four of them.
Inflation is still running at 6.7%, debt and waiting lists have gone up and the government is nowhere near stopping the boats.
Phillips said: “That [small boats] pledge does not say stop 10% of small boats, it says stop small boats. You’re not doing very well really, are you?”
Jenrick replied: “I’m not pretending this is job done, I’m saying our plan is beginning to work.
“We’re around a quarter reduction now in small boats compared to last year, and if you compare that to Italy and much of Europe, small boat arrivals are up by 100%.
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“If you look at the number of Albanians coming illegally to the UK, down by 90%. If you look at the number of people who are being returned who shouldn’t have come here, up 75%.”
He added: “On this area we are delivering. There is clearly a long way to go.”
It was immigration minister Robert Jenrick who ordered the artwork of Mickey Mouse and other cartoon characters be painted over last week, the i newspaper revealed.
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Jenrick reportedly felt they gave the impression Britain was too “welcoming” to people crossing the English Channel in small boats.
The Kent Intake Unit mainly processes children who arrive solo unaccompanied by an adult. The move comes as Rishi Sunak’s government has made cracking down on immigration one of its central goals.
In the House of Lords on Tuesday, minister for migration and borders, Lord Murray of Blidworth, dismissed the concerns of Labour’s Lord Dubs, who fled the Nazis as a child.
Lord Dubs said: “The minister has just said that the government takes the welfare of unaccompanied children seriously.
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“How does that relate to the arrival centre in Dover which had cartoons and welcoming signs for children and which were ordered to be removed by the Home Office minister because it might make the children feel too welcome? Isn’t that a disgrace?”
Lord Murray responded: “The murals he refers to were provided by our detention contractors and were not commissioned or approved by the Home Office.
“It is clearly the correct decision that these facilities have the requisite decoration befitting their purpose.”
Asked by @AlfDubs about disgraceful actions of @ukhomeoffice to remove cartoons from Kent reception as they are ‘too welcoming for children’, Minister says: ‘It is the correct decision these facilities have the requisite decoration befitting their purpose’ 📢Shameful cruelty pic.twitter.com/q1zOLmjQck
— Every Child Protected Against Trafficking 🧡 (@ECPATUK) July 10, 2023
Conservative peer Lord Brownlow responded by saying he was “quite frankly ashamed at your last answer minister”, adding: “I think people in this House and the wider community would have preferred your answer to have been ‘it was a mistake to paint over those murals and that a contractor would be commissioned to repaint them’.
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“We are a welcoming country and whilst I accept the bill is needed to deter it is time we showed some compassion.”
In response, Lord Murray said: “This is a detention facility for those who entered the country unlawfully and it’s appropriate that it be decorated in a manner which reflects its purpose.”
The government has pledged to stop overcrowded dinghies making the journey from northern France to the UK. More than 45,000 people arrived in Britain across the Channel in 2022, and several died in the attempt.
Immigration minister Robert Jenrick order the painting, and another one of Tom and Jerry, be painted over because they were too welcoming for children.
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On Sophy Ridge on Sunday on Sky News this morning, Treasury minister Victoria Atkins was repeatedly asked whether she was “comfortable” with the controversial move, but refused to do so.
Pointing to a picture of the centre, Ridge said: “If you have a look at it here – Minnie and Mickey Mouse here, Tom and Jerry there, and that was painted over, the decision taken by Robert Jenrick, the immigration minister, because it was too welcoming.”
The murals at the Kent Intake Unit in Dover
HM Chief Inspector of Prisons
Atkins insisted that children who arrive in the UK on small boats are “looked after properly”, but said the government wanted to stop them making the perilous journey in the first place.
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But Ridge replied: “Just looking at this picture, I don’t believe you’re comfortable with the decision to paint over – I don’t believe it.”
The minister said: “I’m not comfortable with the idea that people would bring children across.”
The presenter hit back: “I can absolutely understand that, but that’s not the decision of the children. The decision to paint over this mural, it’s a place where kids go – they must be terrified when they go and sit on those chairs, they don’t know what’s happening and where they’re going to go.
“There was an active decision to paint over Mickey and Minnie Mouse. Are you happy with that?”
As she tried to dodge the question again, Ridge said: “Are you comfortable with this? You wouldn’t have done it, would you?”
Atkins replied: “When children come to the UK in those very frightening circumstances, we want them to be looked after well and looked after properly by local authorities.”
In a final attempt to get the minister to answer the question, Ridge said: “I think you can believe all of that and still be kind of uncomfortable about the idea that you’re part of a government that would paint over this mural.”
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The minister responded: “What I care about is how those children are looked after when they come here and I’m confident that they’re given the care and the welfare that we would expect and we would want.”
The mural was installed at the Kent Intake Unit, which mainly processes children who arrive in the UK on their own unaccompanied by an adult.
The murals feature in an HM Chief Inspector of Prisons report published in February following an inspection of the facility after its opening in November.
After the i newspaper revealed the order to paint over them, Labour’s shadow immigration minister Stephen Kinnock tweeted: “The idea that painting over murals for unaccompanied children in immigration centres will somehow stop the boats is utterly absurd. This is a sign of a chaotic government in crisis.”
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The Lib Dems tweeted: “This is the worst kind of trivial nastiness – a Mickey Mouse minister taking an axe to Mickey Mouse.”
A minister has dismissed claims that Rishi Sunak is blocking the release of messages to the Covid inquiry to avoid exposing a plot against Boris Johnson.
Robert Jenrick insisted the reason for the government’s bid to stop the release of unredacted messages to the inquiry was a “simple legal one”.
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It follows an extraordinary argument between ministers and the official inquiry into the pandemic.
This is not a good look for the Government. All evidence provided should be unfettered and not restricted by gov censorship – whatever form that may take. https://t.co/bBIufEK91C
— Rt Hon Nadine Dorries MP (@NadineDorries) June 3, 2023
The government is trying to block the inquiry’s order to release WhatsApp messages and diaries, arguing that it should not have to hand over material which is “unambiguously irrelevant”.
However, a defiant Johnson has bypassed the government and told the inquiry he is happy to hand over all his own communications from that period.
Allies of the former prime minister claimed Sunak was blocking the release of text messages because it could reveal his plot to bring down Johnson, according to the Mail on Sunday.
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Asked about the claims, Jenrick told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “No, as I say, the issue here is a simple legal one.”
Jenrick said Johnson would not be restricted over what he divulged to the Covid inquiry.
But he said it would not be “sensible or reasonable” to hand over ministers’ documents or messages if they are deemed irrelevant to the pandemic.
It comes after cabinet office lawyers wrote to Johnson to warn that money would “cease to be available” if he breaks conditions such as releasing evidence without permission.
He has had legal advice paid for by the taxpayer, but the Sunday Times detailed the letter from government lawyers containing the warning to Johnson.
“The funding offer will cease to be available to you if you knowingly seek to frustrate or undermine, either through your own actions or the actions of others, the government’s position in relation to the inquiry unless there is a clear and irreconcilable conflict of interest on a particular point at issue,” it said.
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The cabinet office insisted the letter was “intended to protect public funds” so taxpayer-funded lawyers are not used for any other purpose than aiding the inquiry.
Former culture secretary Nadine Dorries, a staunch ally of the former Tory leader, said it is “not a good look for the government”.
“All evidence provided should be unfettered and not restricted by gov censorship – whatever form that may take,” she tweeted.
Conservative donor Lord Cruddas, an outspoken backer of Johnson, who handed him a peerage, urged the MP not to be “held to ransom” by the threat.
“Don’t worry @BorisJohnson I can easily get your legal fees funded by supporters and crowd funding, it’s easy,” he tweeted.
