Why Labour – And Quite A Few Tories – Still Believe The General Election Will Be On May 2

Posted on 08/03/2024 by Boris Clair

There is a popular GIF currently doing the rounds in Labour WhatsApp groups.

It shows Justin Timberlake miming for the camera in the video for the NSYNC song It’s Gonna Be Me.

The commonly misheard lyric, however, has been changed to ‘It’s Gonna Be May’ to indicate when they think the general election will be. Yes, that’s what passes for humour in the Westminster village.

Despite all of the apparent evidence that it won’t be, senior Labour figures firmly believe the country will be asked to go to the polls on May 2, coinciding with the local council elections being held on the same day.

With the party miles ahead of the Conservatives in the opinion polls, it’s easy to see why they want Rishi Sunak to get on with it.

But a surprising number of Tories also think that the PM should name the date for a little over seven weeks’ time.

The doctored Justin Timberlake lyric has become a popular gif in Labour circles.

If he does plump for May 2, the prime minister is going to have to get a move on and announce it.

Parliament would need to be dissolved by midnight on March 26, but time would be needed before then to deal with any outstanding legislation – a process known in the jargon as “wash up”.

One theory doing the rounds is that Sunak will wait until his flagship Safety of Rwanda Bill is passed by the MPs before firing the starting gun on the campaign.

“We’ve been working on the basis he’ll get the lectern out in Downing Street at lunchtime on Saturday, March 23, by which time the Rwanda Bill will be done and so there won’t be much else to wash up,” one senior Labour figure told HuffPost UK.

One Tory MP said he believed the PM would name the date even earlier.

“I’m convinced it’ll be on May 2,” he said. “My guess would be he does prime minister’s questions on the 20th and then calls the election at 3pm that day.”

Rumours abound that ministerial diaries have been cleared for April to leave them free to campaign, while the Tory whip – which tells the party’s MPs about upcoming Commons business – only goes up to the 19th of that month.

A Conservative proponent of a May poll told HuffPost UK: “I think we’ve got a few favourable winds at our back right now and Labour are in a bit of a mess, so May is a better option than October.

“It comes down to two questions: do you want the Conservatives or Labour to run the country, and who do you think has the best plan for the future.

“The truth of the matter is you’ve seen another tax cut in the Budget, while Labour are coming forward with more spending plans that will mean more taxes.

“We’ll also have got the Rwanda bill through, so that is where our strategic advantage lies – despite what the polls say.”

It is difficult to ignore the polls, however. Ipsos put support for the Conservatives at just 20% last week, while another poll yesterday had the Tories on 18%.

There are some Tories who think things could get even worse as the year goes on.

A former minister said: “The local elections in May will be really bad and cause lots of internal trouble for Rishi, so the way to avoid that is by having a general election on the same day.”

A Tory aide added: “He definitely has to go in May. It will only get worse the longer it limps on.”

While Sunak has said his “working assumption” is that the election will take place towards the end of the year, he has also been careful not to rule out a May election, demonstrating that it is still in the mix as a possible date.

Given their healthy poll lead, Labour are understandably keen to get on with it.

“Staff in party HQ are being told every day that May is still alive,” said one Labour insider. “If the Tories don’t go for it, what is the point of them? It’ll just look like they’re sitting there waiting for something to turn up, rather than actually running the country.”

A Labour shadow cabinet member said: “We’ll also have another summer of small boat crossings, which would be a terrible election backdrop given Sunak promised to stop them.

“I just think he will conclude its better politically to go now rather than wait till the autumn.”

One leading pollster warned that going to the country now would be an act of “self-immolation” for the Tories, and that the PM might as well wait until the autumn in the hope that the political outlook is a bit brighter.

But the truth is that Sunak has now entered the zone where there are no good options.

Ripping the plaster off and going for May may be marginally preferable to the slow, lingering political death of an October or November poll.

Either way, a thumping Conservative defeat seems all-but inevitable.

Fresh Blow For Rishi Sunak As House Of Lords Inflicts 5 More Defeats On Rwanda Bill

Posted on 06/03/2024 by Boris Clair

The House of Lords has inflicted another five defeats on the government’s Rwanda bill.

It means peers have defied Rishi Sunak to amend his flagship legislation 10 times this week.

The government will call on MPs to vote to overturn the amendments when the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to the House of Commons later this month.

The five defeats tonight included moves to prevent modern slavery victims being deported to Africa against their will, and restoring the ability of the courts to decide whether Rwanda is a safe country.

On Monday night, the Lords voted to ensure the legislation is fully compliant with domestic and international law.

Dick Newby, the Lib Dem leader in the Lords, said: “Time after time, this Bill has been proved to be deeply flawed, yet this Conservative Government continues to promote a policy that frankly is unworkable.

“We are calling for Sunak and Cleverly to seriously consider the changes this House has called for. It is far too dangerous to ignore these amendments because lives are at stake.

“The Government should now accept that the policy is fatally flawed and will do little to solve the sky high asylum backlog.”

The Safety of Rwanda Bill is designed to overcome legal challenges to past attempts to send asylum seekers with a one-way ticket to the east African country.

The bill would compel judges to regard Rwanda as safe, and give ministers the power to ignore emergency injunctions.

The policy is central to the prime minister’s hopes of convincing voters he can “stop the boats” crossing the English channel.

The government hopes once the bill passes flights will be able to take off by the spring, but that timetable now looks in disarray.

Budget 2024: Jeremy Hunt To Cut National Insurance Again In Bid To Avoid Tory Wipeout

Posted on 05/03/2024 by Boris Clair

Jeremy Hunt will cut another 2p off national insurance as he mounts a last-ditch attempt to prevent a Tory meltdown at the general election.

The chancellor will unveil the move as part of a “Budget for long-term growth” that he hopes will turn around the Conservative’s miserable poll numbers with speculation mounting the voters could go to the polls in May.

But he has ruled out the cuts to income tax demanded by Tory MPs and thought to be favoured by Rishi Sunak.

Hunt announced an identical cut to to national insurance in last November’s autumn statement, but that did nothing to close the huge opinion poll gap with Labour.

Treasury officials say that taken together, the two reductions in national insurance will leave an average earner around £900 better off.

The chancellor will tell MPs: “In recent times the UK economy has dealt with a financial crisis, a pandemic and an energy shock caused by a war on the European continent.

“Yet despite the most challenging economic headwinds in modern history, under Conservative governments since 2010 growth has been higher than every large European economy.

“Unemployment has halved, absolute poverty has gone down, and there are 800 more people in jobs for every single day we’ve been in office.

“Of course, interest rates remain high as we bring down inflation. But because of the progress we’ve made because we are delivering on the prime minister’s economic priorities we can now help families with permanent cuts in taxation.

“We do this not just to give help where it is needed in challenging times. But because Conservatives know lower tax means higher growth. And higher growth means more opportunity and more prosperity.”

Hunt will add: “Our plans mean more investment, more jobs, more productive public services and lower taxes – sticking to our plan in a Budget for long term growth.”

The latest cutting national insurance by 2p in the pound will cost the Treasury around £10 billion a year, paid for by a combination of tax rises and spending cuts.

Hunt is expected to scrap the “non-dom” tax status enjoyed by wealthy foreigners living in the UK in a move which could raise up to £3.2 billion, while he is also set to extend the windfall tax on the profits of oil and gas firms.

A tax on vaping products is also expected to raise much-needed cash for the Treasury.

Hunt is expected to extend the 5p cut in fuel duty, first announced by Sunak in 2022 when he was still chancellor, at a cost of £5bn to the Treasury.

The chancellor is also set to usher in a new wave of austerity by slowing down the rate at which public spending goes up in future from 1% a year in real terms to 0.75%. That would save the government around £5 billion.

However, Hunt will defend this approach by insisting: “An economy based on sound money does not pass on its bills to the next generation.”

He will say Labour have “opposed our plans to reduce the deficit every step of the way”.

The chancellor will add: “With the pandemic behind us, we must once again be responsible and increase our resilience to future shocks. That means bringing down borrowing so we can start to reduce our debt.”

But shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves accused the Tories of presiding over “fourteen years of economic failure”.

“The Conservatives promised to fix the nation’s roof, but instead they have smashed the windows, kicked the door in and are now burning the house down,” she said.

“Taxes are rising, prices are still going up in the shops and we have been hit by recession. Nothing the chancellor says or does can undo the economic vandalism of the Conservatives over the past decade.

“The country needs change, not another failed Budget or the risk of five more years of Conservative chaos.”

House Of Lords Inflicts 5 Defeats On Rishi Sunak’s Rwanda Bill

Posted on 04/03/2024 by Boris Clair

The House of Lords has inflicted five defeats on the government over its controversial Rwanda scheme.

In another headache for Rishi Sunak, the unelected upper chamber voted by a majority of 102 to back a move to ensure the proposed legislation is fully compliant with domestic and international law.

The first defeat on the Safety of Rwanda Bill was followed by four more – including insisting parliament cannot declare Rwanda to be a safe country until the treaty with its promised safeguards is fully implemented, and a vote in favour of establishing a monitoring mechanism for the UK-Rwanda pact.

It paves the way for a back-and-forth between the elected Commons and the Lords, which is often referred to as parliamentary “ping-pong”, meaning MPs can overturn the changes at later stages in the process.

Baron Tugendhat, “The Conservative government is behaving like the ruling party in George Orwell’s 1984”

“Normally 1984 is invoked in relation to gov behaviour, laws, events, in tyranies and dictatorships. Never-the-less in this bill it is seeking to achieve by act of Parliament… pic.twitter.com/dvRcsNqPVX

— Farrukh (@implausibleblog) March 4, 2024

The Safety of Rwanda Bill is designed to overcome legal challenges to past attempts to send asylum seekers with a one-way ticket to the east African country.

The bill would compel judges to regard Rwanda as safe, and give ministers the power to ignore emergency injunctions.

The policy is central to the prime minister’s hopes of convincing voters he can “stop the boats” crossing the English channel.

The government hopes once the bill passes flights will be able to take off by the spring, but that timetable now looks in disarray.

Dick Newby, Liberal Democrat leader in the Lords, said: “For months this Conservative government has been pushing this policy that does nothing to solve the asylum backlog.

“This bill has cost hundreds of millions of pounds, and doesn’t combat dangerous Channel crossings or create safe, legal routes.

“By declaring Rwanda safe when it is clearly anything but, and excluding the courts, the bill also undermines the rule of law. It is the product of a morally and politically bankrupt government.”

Speaking in the Lords, Conservative grandee Lord Tugendhat, whose nephew is security minister Tom Tugendhat, accused the government of behaving like the ruling party in George Orwell’s dystopian novel 1984.

“This country is no dictatorship, it is a democracy,” he said. “If this bill goes onto the statute book in its present form, Rwanda will be a safe country regardless of reality until the statute is repealed.”

This is a breaking news story and will be updated. Follow HuffPost UK on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

Labour Peer Slams Rishi Sunak’s ‘Sinister’ Speech On Mob Rule: ‘Bit Of A Cheek’

Posted on 03/03/2024 by Boris Clair

Labour peer Shami Chakrabarti described Rishi Sunak’s recent claims about extremism in the UK as “sinister” during an interview on Sunday.

Over the last week, the prime minister has condemned supposed extremists for “trying to tear us apart”, alleged “our democracy itself is a target” amid rising “mob rule” and called for the police to do more to protect the UK.

But, speaking to Sky News at the weekend, Chakrabarti said: “I don’t like his theatre, quite frankly.”

“The thing I find most sinister about it is that he’s almost suggesting that he has read the riot act to the police,” she added.

“He’s called them in, he’s told them that he wants the protests not to be managed, but to be policed.

“I think, in a liberal democracy – and he’s now claiming to be a liberal patriot, that was the language he used – we don’t have prime ministers interfering with operational policing.

“And this has been happening every so often under his government – there will be a summit where the police chiefs have been called to No.10,” she said. “And then there’s a press release about what they’ve been told by the prime minister or the home secretary, and I really don’t like it.

“I don’t think people in Britain want their politicians to be deciding how particular a police operation should be conducted.”

Host Trevor Phillips asked: “Sinister is quite a strong word for this, isn’t it?”

“It really is and I’m using it,” the peer said, adding: “It’s also a bit of a cheek for the prime minister to be talking about these things when so many of his ministers and senior Conservatives have been pouring fuel on the flames of polarisation, on culture war division in our country.”

She continued: “The language of Lee Anderson and Suella Braverman has been a real problem for me.”

Anderson, a backbench MP, lost the Tory whip after refusing to apologise for attacking London mayor Sadiq Khan, claiming the “islamists” had got “control” of the Labour politician.

Braverman, previously the home secretary and now a Tory backbencher, separately claimed “islamists” run Britain. She has not lost the party whip.

Chakrabarti continued: “It’s a bit of a cheek for the prime minister to then come and try and look statesmanlike with his reading the riot act to the police about how they should do their very difficult job.”

Rishi Sunak And Jeremy Hunt In The Last Chance Saloon As Tories Demand ‘Game-Changing’ Budget

Posted on 02/03/2024 by Boris Clair

Just after 12.30 on Wednesday afternoon, Rishi Sunak will step aside from the Despatch Box and make way for Jeremy Hunt.

With the prime minister sitting just behind him on the government frontbench, the chancellor will then deliver a Budget which will make the political, as well as the economic, weather for the months leading up to the general election.

It is not overstating things to suggest that the contents of Hunt’s red box will determine whether or not the Tories have any chance at all of a record-breaking fifth term in office.

Many Conservative MPs already believe that the game is up, the party is heading for opposition and there is nothing the chancellor can announce to change that fundamental truth.

“I don’t think he can do anything now to change the game because the game cannot be changed,” one gloomy former Tory minister told HuffPost UK.

“The Budget won’t really make any significant difference now to our chances of winning, therefore he should do some things that are attractive to Conservative voters, like reform inheritance tax, boost home ownership and help small businesses. I don’t think cuts to income tax would make any difference.”

The best thing Hunt can do, some Tories believe, is produce a Budget that appeals to the Tory base and ensures that as many of their MPs as possible survive when voters deliver their verdict later this year.

One veteran MP said: “What they should be thinking about is maxing the number of Tory MPs who come back after the election so we at least have a chance of getting back into government after one parliament.

“Labour have shown you can do that with 200 MPs, but with 150 it’s impossible.”

Other Tories are more optimistic, but warn that Rishi Sunak must not allow Hunt to waste this opportunity to change the political weather.

One senior Tory MP told HuffPost UK: “Rishi needs to own this Budget, not Hunt. The prime minister has more of a political instinct than the chancellor.

“This Budget is the last chance to start to reverse Labour’s dominance in the polls. The Budget must not be hijacked by an over-cautious Treasury.

“Number 10 needs to make sure the Budget is politically smart – not just economically smart.”

Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt sre under pressure to deliver.

Former cabinet minister Damian Green, now chair of the One Nation group of moderate Tories, said: “The chancellor must seize the opportunity he has at the Budget to cut taxes, drive growth and put more money back into hardworking, ordinary people’s pockets.

“This is our chance to demonstrate to voters that we are on their side and that we are taking steps to alleviate pressures they face in all aspects of everyday lives. If we fail to do so, we risk the damaging consequences of a Labour government.”

In January, Hunt sought to compare himself with the Thatcher-era chancellor Nigel Lawson, suggesting that big tax cuts were coming.

Since then, however, the mood music coming out of the Treasury has changed, with sources confirming that there is less money available than previously hoped to pay for pre-election giveaways.

Hunt could even be forced to steal two of Labour’s flagship policies – scrapping non-dom tax status for wealthy foreigners and increasing the windfall tax on energy firms – to raise the money needed to cut either national insurance or income tax.

One Tory MP suggested that Hunt “cut and run” by producing a voter-friendly Budget before a May general election.

This would, though, fly in the face of Sunak’s previous declaration that the election would come in the second of the year.

Nevertheless, Labour campaign chiefs Morgan McSweeney and Pat McFadden this week gave a presentation to the shadow cabinet setting out why they believe a May poll is still “in play”.

One source said: “If they deliver a tax-cutting Budget and the economy looks like it’s starting to pick up, May could be the optimum time for the Tories to go to the country and still have some control over events.

“If Sunak leaves it till the end of the year it looks as if they are holding on till the bitter end, and as we saw with John Major in 1997 and Gordon Brown in 2010, that doesn’t usually end well for the government.”

Voters will see a lot more of Angela Rayner during the election campaign.

HuffPost UK has also been told that deputy leader Angela Rayner will play “a central role” in the Labour election campaign.

Relations between Rayner and Keir Starmer are professional rather than warm, with the leader being closer both personally and ideologically to shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves.

But one senior Labour insider said: “Angela appeals to certain voters in a way that Keir doesn’t, so she will be a key figure when the campaign gets underway.

“We want the public to see Keir, Rachel and Angela out there together making the case for a Labour government after 14 years of the Tories.”

Whenever the election takes place, next Wednesday’s Budget will go a long way to determining whether it’s nearly time to call last orders on Sunak’s time in Downing Street.

Rishi Sunak Addressed The Nation Outside No.10 – And Said Very Little

Posted on 01/03/2024 by Boris Clair

Rishi Sunak has used a “lectern speech” outside the doors of No.10 Downing Street to condemn extremists “trying to tear us apart” – but offered little by way of a policy solution.

Westminster was buzzing as the prime minister announced he would make an unexpected Friday night address – with the prospect he was about to call a general election swiftly ruled out.

Instead, Sunak’s addressed the nation on tackling the unrest in Britain in the aftermath of the October 7 attacks by Hamas against Israel – a situation the PM had likened to “mob rule” in a statement earlier in the week.

Against the backdrop of the No.10 front door, Sunak warned “our democracy itself is a target” for extremists.

He continued: “In recent weeks and months, we have seen a shocking increase in extremist disruption and criminality.

“What started as protests on our streets have descended into intimidation, threats and planned acts of violence.

“Jewish children, fearful to wear their school uniform lest it reveals their identity. Muslim women abused in the street for the actions of a terrorist group they have no connection with.

“Now our democracy itself is a target. Council meetings and local events have been stormed. MPs do not feel safe in their homes. Long-standing parliamentary conventions have been upended because of safety concerns.

“And it’s beyond alarming that last night, the Rochdale by-election returned a candidate that dismisses the horror of what happened on October 7, who glorifies Hezbollah and is endorsed by Nick Griffin, the racist former leader of the BNP.”

The latter part of the statement alludes to the victory of George Galloway in the Rochdale by-election.

Sunak was vague, however, on how his government would take action to deal with the problem, alluding only to a “new robust framework” to tackle the “root causes” of extremism and “asking more of the police”.

The speech came at the end of another rancorous week for British politics.

On Wednesday, Sunak claimed that there is a “growing consensus that mob rule is replacing democratic rule” in the UK, but Downing Street failed to provide any evidence for the extraordinary allegation.

In another controversy, Lee Anderson, the former Tory party chairman, claimed policing of the largely peaceful demonstrations showed that “Islamists” had “control” over London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, who is Muslim. Anderson had the Tory whip removed last weekend after he chose not to apologise for the comments, and spent this week rowing back from his original “little bit of contrition”.

On Friday, Galloway, the former Labour MP, claimed a stunning victory in the Rochdale by-election on the back of a pro-Palestine ticket and a disastrous Labour campaign that saw the party drop support for their candidate after he made comments branded anti-Semitic.

Following the speech, Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey said: “The British people will take no lessons from a prime minister and Conservative party who have sowed the seeds of division for years.

“This is the same prime minister who made Suella Braverman his home secretary and Lee Anderson his party’s deputy chairman.

“If the prime minister is serious about bringing people together, he would call a general election now, so that the British public can decide the future of our country.”

Rishi Sunak Says There’s A ‘Growing Consensus’ Britain Is Descending Into ‘Mob Rule’

Posted on 28/02/2024 by Boris Clair

Rishi Sunak has suggested the UK is descending into “mob rule”, and has urged police to do more to protect Britain’s democracy.

His comment comes amid pro-Palestinian protests that have been held most weekends, drawing hundreds of thousands of demonstrators, and growing concern in recent months over MPs’ safety since the outbreak of the war in Gaza.

Last week, parliament descended into chaos as tensions flared over a vote on the Israel-Hamas conflict, with the House of Commons speaker citing “frightening” threats against MPs for a decision to break with usual parliamentary procedure.

But the Conservatives have been accused of deliberately raising tensions.

Ex-Conservative deputy chairman Lee Anderson had the Tory whip removed over the weekend after he chose not to apologise for saying “Islamists” had “control” over London’s mayor, Sadiq Khan, who is Muslim.

Khan accused the Tories of adopting a strategy to “weaponise anti-Muslim prejudice for electoral gain”.

Former home secretary Suella Braverman called the protests “hate marches” and accused police of being too lenient with them.

The prime minister said a new “democratic policing protocol” would commit to extra patrols and make clear that protests targetting MPs at their homes should be treated as intimidatory.

Speaking to police leaders about the issues around MPs’ safety at a roundtable meeting in Downing Street on Wednesday, Sunak said: “There is a growing consensus that mob rule is replacing democratic rule. And we’ve got to collectively, all of us, change that urgently.”

The Tory leader continued: “We also need to demonstrate more broadly to the public that (the police) will use the powers you already have, the laws that you have.

“I am going to do whatever it requires to protect our democracy and our values that we all hold dear.

“That is what the public expect. It is fundamental to our democratic system. And also it is vital for maintaining public confidence in the police.”

Rishi Sunak Criticises Lindsay Hoyle Over Commons Gaza Vote Chaos

Posted on 22/02/2024 by Boris Clair

Rishi Sunak has criticised Lindsay Hoyle for how he handled the chaotic Gaza ceasefire vote as pressure grows on the Speaker to resign.

In his first public comments on the row, the prime minister said Hoyle should not have upended the “usual processes” of parliament in the face of “intimidation or aggressive behaviour”.

Hoyle has faced accusations of bias after up-ending parliamentary procedure by selecting a Labour amendment to an SNP motion calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza.

That had the effect of preventing what was expected to be a major rebellion by Labour MPs who had planned to vote with the SNP.

Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader in Westminster, has accused the Speaker of pro-Labour bias and said his party no longer has confidence in him remaining in post.

Hoyle has said one of the reasons he allowed Labour’s amendment was to protect MPs who faced a backlash from pro-Palestine campaigners if they failed to vote for a ceasefire

He said: “I have a duty of care, and if my mistake is looking after members, I am guilty.”

But Sunak said today: “What happened in the House of Commons last night is very concerning.

“It seems that the usual processes and the way that the House of Commons works were changed.

“Now my understanding is that the Speaker has apologised for that and is going to reflect on what happened.”

The prime minister added: “I think the important point here is that we should never let extremists intimidate us into changing the way in which parliament works.

“Parliament is an important place for us to have these debates. And just because some people may want to stifle that with intimidation or aggressive behaviour, we should not bend to that and change how parliament works. That’s a very slippery slope.”

Some 66 Tory and SNP MPs have so far signed a motion of no confidence in the Speaker as he continues to fight to save his job.

One former cabinet minister told HuffPost UK: “MPs are very divided on what should happen, but Lindsay does have enough Conservative support to win a vote of confidence if it comes to that.”

BBC Radio Audience Bursts Out Laughing After Esther McVey Says Sunak Has ‘Turned Economy Round’

Posted on 17/02/2024 by Boris Clair

A Tory minister was openly laughed at after she claimed Rishi Sunak has “turned the economy round”.

Appearing on BBC Radio 4′s ‘Any Questions’ programme on Friday night, McVey said Tory MPs must rally round the prime minister despite the party’s latest humiliating by-election defeats.

She said: “People need to now get behind Rishi Sunak, who actually inherited a difficult set of circumstances and say ‘yes, he has turned the economy round – that is turning round now’.”

As the studio audience burst into laughter, presenter Alex Forsyth said: “Is it? The UK’s just gone into a recession.”

McVey replied: “Yeah, OK. Those figures were from the end of last year, and you’re right it was a technical recession and it’s a shallow recession.”

Figures released by the Office for National Statistics on Thursday showed that the economy shrank by 0.3% in the final three months of 2023.

With gross domestic product (GDP) also contracting by 0.1% between July and September, that meant the economy was officially in recession.

WellnessMaster

Get The Latest News on Holistic Wellness

Tag Archives: Rishi Sunak