There are several factors that play an important role in the development of floods: air temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, and the daily precipitation in the days before a flood. In order to better understand how individual factors contribute to flooding, UFZ researchers examined more than 3,500 river basins worldwide and analysed flood events between 1981 and 2020 for each of them. The result: precipitation was the sole determining factor in only around 25% of the almost 125,000 flood events. Soil moisture was the decisive factor in just over 10% of cases, and snow melt and air temperature were the sole factors in only around 3% of cases. In contrast, 51.6% of cases were caused by at least two factors. At around 23%, the combination of precipitation and soil moisture occurs most frequently.

However, when analysing the data, the UFZ researchers discovered that three — or even all four — factors can be jointly responsible for a flood event. For example, temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth were decisive factors in around 5,000 floods whilst all four factors were decisive in around 1,000 flood events. And not only that: “We also showed that flood events become more extreme when more factors are involved,” says Dr Jakob Zscheischler, Head of the UFZ Department “Compound Environmental Risks” and senior author of the article. In the case of one-year floods, 51.6% can be attributed to several factors; in the case of five- and ten-year floods, 70.1% and 71.3% respectively can be attributed to several factors. The more extreme a flood is, the more driving factors there are and the more likely they are to interact in the event generation. This correlation often also applies to individual river basins and is referred to as flood complexity.

According to the researchers, river basins in the northern regions of Europe and America as well as in the Alpine region have a low flood complexity. This is because snow melt is the dominant factor for most floods regardless of the flood magnitude. The same applies to the Amazon basin, where the high soil moisture resulting from the rainy season is often a major cause of floods of varying severity. In Germany, the Havel and the Zusam, a tributary of the Danube in Bavaria, are river basins that have a low flood complexity. Regions with river basins that have a high flood complexity primarily include eastern Brazil, the Andes, eastern Australia, the Rocky Mountains up to the US west coast, and the western and central European plains. In Germany, this includes the Moselle and the upper reaches of the Elbe. “River basins in these regions generally have several flooding mechanisms,” says Jakob Zscheischler. For example, river basins in the European plains can be affected by flooding caused by the combination of heavy precipitation, active snow melt, and high soil moisture.

However, the complexity of flood processes in a river basin also depends on the climate and land surface conditions in the respective river basin. This is because every river basin has its own special features. Among other things, the researchers looked at the climate moisture index, the soil texture, the forest cover, the size of the river basin, and the river gradient. “In drier regions, the mechanisms that lead to flooding tend to be more heterogeneous. For moderate floods, just a few days of heavy rainfall is usually enough. For extreme floods, it needs to rain longer on already moist soils,” says lead author Dr Shijie Jiang, who now works at the Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry in Jena.

The scientists used explainable machine learning for the analysis. “First, we use the potential flood drivers air temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth as well as the weekly precipitation — each day is considered as an individual driving factor — to predict the run-off magnitude and thus the size of the flood,” explains Zscheischler. The researchers then quantified which variables and combinations of variables contributed to the run-off of a particular flood and to which extent. This approach is referred to as explainable machine learning because it uncovers the predictive relationship between flood drivers and run-off during a flood in the trained model. “With this new methodology, we can quantify how many driving factors and combinations thereof are relevant for the occurrence and intensity of floods,” adds Jiang.

The findings of the UFZ researchers are expected to help predict future flood events. “Our study will help us better estimate particularly extreme floods,” says Zscheischler. Until now, very extreme floods have been estimated by extrapolating from less extreme floods. However, this is too imprecise because the individual contributing factors could change their influence for different flood magnitudes.

Now, reporting in three different papers in The Astrophysical Journal, a Caltech-led team of researchers has concluded that CSOs are not young but rather lead relatively short lives.

“These CSOs are not young,” explains Anthony (Tony) Readhead, the Robinson Professor of Astronomy, Emeritus, who led the investigation. “You wouldn’t call a 12-year-old dog young even though it has lived a shorter life than an adult human. These objects are a distinct species all of their own that live and die out in thousands of years rather than the millions of years that are common in galaxies with bigger jets.”

In the new studies, the team reviewed literature and past observations of more than 3,000 CSO candidates, verifying 64 as real and identifying an additional 15 CSOs. All these objects had been previously observed by the National Radio Astronomy Observatory’s Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA), funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), and some had been observed by other high-resolution radio telescopes. “The VLBA observations are the most detailed in astronomy, providing images with details equivalent to measuring the width of a human hair at a distance of 100 miles,” Readhead says.

The team’s analysis concludes that CSOs expel jets for 5,000 years or less and then die out. “The CSO jets are very energetic jets but they seem to shut off,” says Vikram Ravi, assistant professor of astronomy at Caltech and a co-author of one of the studies. “The jets stop flowing from the source.”

As for what is fueling the short-lived jets, the scientists believe the cause is a tidal disruption event (TDE), which occurs when a single star wanders too close to a supermassive black hole and is devoured.

“We think that a single star gets ripped apart, and then all that energy is channeled into jets along the axis the black hole is spinning around,” Readhead says. “The giant black hole starts out invisible to us, and then when it consumes a star, boom! The black hole has fuel, and we can see it.”

Readhead first suspected that CSOs might be fueled by TDEs back in the 1990s, but he says the idea went largely unnoticed by the scientific community. “The hypothesis was all but forgotten because years went by before observational evidence began to mount for TDEs,” he says. At the time of his original hypothesis, only three CSOs had been found.

Fast forward to 2020. Readhead, who had paused his studies of CSOs to delve into different problems in radio astronomy, decided it was time to revisit the topic. He gathered some of his colleagues together on Zoom, and they decided to comb through literature and weed out objects that had been misclassified as CSOs. Over the next two years, the team investigated more than 3,000 CSO candidates, narrowing the group down to only dozens that had the criteria to be real CSOs.

Ultimately, a picture began to emerge of CSOs as an entirely distinct family with jets that die out much sooner than their gigantic brethren, such as those of the extremely powerful Cygnus A, a galaxy that shoots out extremely powerful jets that glow brightly at radio wavelengths. These jets stretch to distances of about 230,000 light-years in each direction and last tens of millions of years. In contrast, the CSO jets extend to about 1,500 light-years at most and die out by about 5,000 years.

According to the astronomers, the CSO jets likely form when a supermassive black hole snacks on not just any star, but a substantial one.

“The TDEs we’ve previously seen only lasted for a few years,” Ravi says. “We think that the remarkable TDEs powering CSOs last far longer because the disrupted stars are very large in size, very massive, or both.”

By analyzing the varied collection of CSO radio images, the researchers say they can trace how the objects age over time, almost like looking at a photo album of a CSO’s life to observe how its jets evolve. The younger CSOs have shorter jets that are closer to the black holes, while the older objects have jets that extend further out from their black hole. Though most of the jets die out, the scientists estimate that one in 100 will go onto to become long-lived like those of Cygnus A. In those rare cases, the galaxies are likely merging with other galaxies, a turbulent process that provides a large quantity of fuel.

If the discoveries of Readhead and his team are confirmed with additional observations, the CSOs will provide a whole new avenue for studying how massive stars at the centers of galaxies interact with supermassive black holes.

“These objects are indeed a distinct population with their own distinct origin, and it is up to us now to learn more about them and how they came to be,” Readhead says. “Being able to study these objects on timescales of years to decades rather than millions of years has opened the door to a whole new laboratory for studying supermassive black holes and the many unexpected and unpredictable surprises they hold.”