A previous study showed that new cancer diagnoses fell abruptly in early 2020, as did the volume of pathology reports, suggesting that many cancers were not being diagnosed in a timely manner. To determine whether these missed diagnoses were caught in 2021, possibly as more advanced cancers, researchers from NIH’s National Cancer Institute (NCI) compared observed cancer incidence rates for 2021 with those expected from pre-pandemic trends using data from NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program.

A full recovery in cancer incidence should appear as an increase over pre-pandemic levels (also known as a rebound) to account for the missed diagnoses. The researchers looked at cancer overall, as well as five major cancer types that vary in how they are typically detected: through screening (female breast and prostate cancer), due to symptoms (lung and bronchus and pancreatic cancer), or incidentally during other medical procedures (thyroid cancer).

Cancer incidence rates overall and for most specific cancers approached pre-pandemic levels, with no significant rebound to account for the 2020 decline. However, in addition to an uptick in new diagnoses of advanced breast cancer in 2021, the data also provided some evidence of an increase in diagnoses of advanced pancreatic cancer. Also, new diagnoses of thyroid cancers in 2021 were still below pre-pandemic levels.

The researchers concluded that 2021 was a transition year that was still affected by new variants and new waves of COVID-19 cases, which continued to impact medical care. They said the findings highlight the need for ongoing monitoring to understand the long-term impacts of the pandemic on cancer diagnoses and outcomes.

Recent observational trends suggest that warm and unusually dry conditions have already intensified wildfires in the Arctic region. To understand and simulate how future anthropogenic warming will affect wildfire occurrences, it is important to consider the role of accelerated permafrost thawing, because it strongly controls the water content of the soil — a key factor in wildfire burning. Recent climate models did not fully consider the interaction between global warming, northern high latitude permafrost thawing, soil water and fires.

The new study uses permafrost and wildfire data generated by one of the most comprehensive earth system models — the Community Earth System Model. It is the first model of its kind, which captures the coupling between soil water, permafrost and wildfires in an integrated way. To better separate the anthropogenic effect of increasing greenhouse gas emissions from naturally occurring variations in climate, the scientists used an ensemble of 50 past-to-future simulations covering the period from 1850-2100 CE (SSP3-7.0 greenhouse gas emission scenario), which was recently conducted by scientists from the IBS Center for Climate Physics, Busan (South Korea) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado (United States) on the IBS supercomputer Aleph.

With this ensemble modelling approach, the team demonstrated that by the mid to late 21^st century anthropogenic permafrost thawing in the Subarctic and Arctic regions will be quite extensive. In many areas, the excess soil water can drain quickly, which leads to a sudden drop in soil moisture, subsequent surface warming and atmospheric drying. “These conditions will intensify wildfires,” says Dr. In-Won Kim, lead author of the study and postdoctoral researcher at the IBS Center for Climate Physics in Busan, South Korea. “In the second half of this century, our model simulations show an abrupt switch from virtually no fires to very intensive fires within just a few years” she adds.

These future trends will be further exacerbated by the fact that vegetation biomass is likely to increase in high latitude areas due to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. This so-called CO₂ fertilization effect therefore provides extra fire fuel.

“To better simulate the future degradation of the complex permafrost landscape, it is necessary to further improve small-scale hydrological processes in earth system models using extended observational datasets,” says Associate Prof. Hanna Lee, co-author of the study at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, in Trondheim, Norway.

“Wildfires release carbon dioxide, and black and organic carbon into the atmosphere, which can affect climate and feed back to the permafrost thawing processes in the Arctic. However, interactions between fire emissions and the atmospheric processes have not been fully integrated into earth system computer models yet. Further consideration of this aspect would be the next step,” says Prof. Axel Timmermann, co-author of the study and director of the ICCP and Distinguished Professor at Pusan National University.

In April of 1848 James Fitzjames of HMS Erebus helped lead 105 survivors from their ice-trapped ships in an attempt to escape the Arctic. None would survive. Since the mid-19th century, remains of dozens of them have been found around King William Island, Nunavut.

The identification was made possible by a DNA sample from a living descendant, which matched the DNA that was discovered at the archaeological site on King William Island where 451 bones from at least 13 Franklin sailors were found.

“We worked with a good quality sample that allowed us to generate a Y-chromosome profile, and we were lucky enough to obtain a match,” said Stephen Fratpietro of Lakehead’s Paleo-DNA lab.

Fitzjames is just the second of those 105 to be positively identified, joining John Gregory, engineer aboard HMS Erebus, whom the team identified in 2021.

“The identification of Fitzjames’ remains provides new insights about the expedition’s sad ending,” said Dr. Douglas Stenton, adjunct professor of anthropology at Waterloo.

In the 1850s Inuit told searchers they had seen evidence that survivors had resorted to cannibalism, shocking some Europeans. Those accounts were fully corroborated in 1997 by the late Dr. Anne Keenleyside who found cut marks on nearly one-quarter of the human bones at NgLj-2, proving that the bodies of at least four of the men who died there had been subject to cannibalism.

Fitzjames’ mandible is one of the bones exhibiting multiple cut marks, demonstrating that after his death his body was subject to cannibalism. “This shows that he predeceased at least some of the other sailors who perished, and that neither rank nor status was the governing principle in the final desperate days of the expedition as they strove to save themselves,” said Stenton.

19th century Europeans believed that all cannibalism was morally reprehensible, but the researchers emphasize that we now understand much more about what is known as survival or starvation cannibalism and can empathize with those forced to resort to it. “It demonstrates the level of desperation that the Franklin sailors must have felt to do something they would have considered abhorrent,” said Dr. Robert Park, Waterloo anthropology professor. “Ever since the expedition disappeared into the Arctic 179 years ago there has been widespread interest in its ultimate fate, generating many speculative books and articles and, most recently, a popular television miniseries which turned it into a horror story with cannibalism as one of its themes. Meticulous archaeological research like this shows that the true story is just as interesting, and that there is still more to learn,” said Park.

The remains of Fitzjames and the other sailors who perished with him now rest in a memorial cairn at the site with a commemorative plaque.

Descendants of members of the Franklin expedition are encouraged to contact Stenton. “We are extremely grateful to this family for sharing their history with us and for providing DNA samples, and welcome opportunities to work with other descendants of members of the Franklin expedition to see if their DNA can be used to identify other individuals.”

“Identification of a Senior Officer from Sir John Franklin’s Northwest Passage Expedition” by Stenton, Fratpietro and Park was published in the Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports. The research was funded by the Government of Nunavut and the University of Waterloo.