Why Has Rishi Sunak Suggested He’s Waiting Until Autumn For A General Election?

British politics is slowly returning after the Christmas break, and speculation is growing over when the eagerly-anticipated general election will take place after comments made by Rishi Sunak.

What did Sunak say?

The prime minister announced on Thursday his “working assumption” was he would delay going to the country until the “second half” of 2024.

His comments suggest the election will be held in either October or November, as had been widely expected. But it comes following speculation Sunak could decide to call the election for May.

While he did not categorically rule out a spring poll, Sunak told broadcasters: “My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year.”

Labour, which have consistently held a 20-point poll lead over the Tories, seized on the remarks as a sign he had “bottled” facing the British public and accused Sunak of “squatting” in Downing Street.

What do we actually know?

In Britain, each electoral term is supposed to last five years. Then prime minister Boris Johnson called the last general election in December 2019, meaning meaning the latest possible date for the country to go to the polls would be January 2025.

But in reality, and ever since the establishment of fixed terms in 2011, the five-year gap between polls is not what happens in practice.

Under the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, a prime minister has the power to call an election earlier than the deadline – all voters would have to wait for is the 25 days between a PM making a “request” to the King to dissolve parliament (and as a constitutional monarch, the King Charles could not reject it) and polling day.

What’s influencing the date?

As it’s in his gift to choose, Sunak is clearly likely to pick a date most favourable to him and his party. And since Labour holds a commanding poll lead, he isn’t going to rush the country to the ballot box when there’s still time to steal a win – however unlikely that currently looks.

His decision could be based on not just whether he can snatch an unlikely victory from the jaws of defeat, but also under the grimest projections if he can reduce the number of seats the Tories lose and prevent a 1997-style Labour landslide (or worse).

So what is affecting that choice?

The next big political fixture is the spring budget, when chancellor Jeremy Hunt could magic up some tax and spending commitments that sit well with the electorate. It was the announcement of the March 6 fiscal event that prompted speculation of an spring budget, and a blitz of crowd-pleasing promises could yet encourage Sunak to go early.

But his words on Tuesday suggest he doesn’t think this will be enough.

Other than pushing taxpayers’ money around, he may be on the lookout for something to materialise, and that could lead the country to waiting until the last minute. Three areas in particular will be on his radar: the economy, immigration and an apparent lack of enthusiasm for the Labour alternative.

A positive story around the economy could be possible if the UK manages to avoid a recession in 2024 as inflation cools to more normal levels. But it may be too late to reverse voter antipathy towards the Tories given how Liz Truss crashed the economy, and high mortgage rates continue to hurt homeowners.

Sunak’s “stop the boats” pledge has been central to his pitch to voters since becoming Tory leader, and any sense that he has been able to curb the number of small boats crossing the English channel may be something he can stitch a better narrative out of.

He may hope to combine an uptick on either or both of these with the argument Keir Starmer isn’t the answer to Britain’s problems – but perhaps even January 2025 isn’t enough time to make this strategy work.

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Here’s Why People Think Argylle Author Elly Conway Is Actually Taylor Swift

You may have heard of the 2024 movie Argylle, starring the likes of Henry Cavill, Dua Lipa, Samuel L. Jackson and Bryce Dallas Howard, but have you also heard about the wild fan theory linking the film to global superstar Taylor Swift?

Swifties have flooded social media to perpetuate a theory that the singer-songwriter is in fact the author behind the novel of the same name, which supposedly inspired the film.

As you might imagine, it’s a convoluted theory with many clues and links, so let’s break it down a little bit, shall we?

Who is Elly Conway, the author of Argylle and the protagonist in the film?

Elly Conway is a never-before-heard-of author whose debut novel was turned into a movie before it was even published – not exactly a common trajectory for a first time writer.

Though the author has an Instagram page (where she doesn’t post pictures of her face) and an author page on her publisher Penguin’s website, virtually nothing is known about her.

This has led to many commentators speculating that either: Conway isn’t real, and the book that has been released today is the book from the film, likely written by a ghost writer. Or, Conway is a pseudonym for a very famous person who would’ve been able to secure a movie deal on whatever they wrote.

Swift is currently the favourite for a whole host of reasons, which range from sort of credible to quite a reach, but other contenders including Harry Potter author J.K. Rowling, who has published under a pen name in the past.

Why do people think Elly Conway is Taylor Swift?

Seemingly, the first person to talk about this theory is TikTok user @JessiSwiftTok, who shared her theory on 21st October 2023. In the video – which has received nearly 1 million views – she points to the cat backpack Conway wears, which appears in the trailer and on promotional artwork for the film, as something Swift herself often uses to carry around her own cats.

Another parallel between Conway, played by Bryce Dallas Howard, and Swift is their looks. As @JessiSwiftTok explains, at the end of Swift’s famous All Too Well short film, the star portrays herself as a redheaded author with a very similar appearance to that of Dallas Howard in the film.

Other clues include several pictures of Swift in the same bejewelled pattern used in the Argylle film posters, a picture of Swift on her tour in a Conway Studios jumper and lots of date synchronicities that are honestly beyond my comprehension as a casual Swiftie.

The similarities between Swift and Dallas Howard in Argylle have not gone unnoticed by Swifties
The similarities between Swift and Dallas Howard in Argylle have not gone unnoticed by Swifties

PolyGram Entertainment/Republic Records/Universal Pictures

Will we ever know who Elly Conway really is?

It’s uncertain whether we will ever know the true identity behind Conway, but since she is supposedly going to write three more books in the Argylle series, this saga could extend far into the future.

While some contend that this Conway-Swift theory is actually a clever marketing ploy by the studio behind the movie, others believe the parallels between Conway and Swift are too glaring ignore.

Indeed, Swift has been known to use a pseudonym before – hello Nils Sjöberg – but so far the Cruel Summer singer hasn’t confirmed anything. One thing I’ll say is if it turns out to be J.K. again, we’re gonna be pissed!

Argylle is scheduled to release in cinemas worldwide on 2nd February.

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Israel-Hamas War: How The Violent Conflict Is Already Reaching Across The Middle East

The Israel-Hamas war has spilled out into the wider Middle Eastern region recently, with at least three areas now where violent skirmishes could escalate.

While the focal point of the crisis is still the Palestinian territory of Gaza, friction between Israel and its neighbouring nations have sparked fears that the whole region could be embroiled in war.

The EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has even warned that unless this war ends soon, “the entire Middle East might end up in flames”.

As the complex crisis is about to head into its third month, here’s a look at where hostilities have risen – and why.

Lebanon

According to Beirut, an Israeli drone strike targeted a Hamas office in the Lebanese capital on Tuesday, killing seven people.

The deputy leader of Hamas’ political bureau who was also involved Hamas’ military, Saleh al-Arouri, was killed.

However, Israel has not taken direct responsibility for the attack. Senior advisor to Netanyahu Mark Regev just referred to “whoever did this” and said it was “not an attack on the Lebanese state”.

Back in November, the Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu warned in November that Israel would “operate against Hamas leaders wherever they are”.

But, after Tuesday’s attack, he only described the move as a “surgical strike” against Hamas – and stopped short of actually taking responsibility for it.

It comes as tensions between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah have been increasing for months.

Hezbollah, known to be sympathetic to Hamas, has been designated a terrorist organisation by Western countries, Israel, the Gulf Arab countries and the Arab League.

Hezbollah said that it was a “serious assault on Lebanon” and a “dangerous development in course of the war between the enemy and the axis of the resistance” which will “not go without a response or punishment”.

Lebanon’s PM, Najib Mikati, said the explosion was a “crime” which “aims to drag Lebanon into a new phase of confrontation with Israel” – but discouraged Hezbollah from responding themselves.

Former UK ambassador to Lebanon Tom Fletcher told the BBC this was a “moment of real jeopardy” as al-Arouri was a “big fish” and “taking him out in the heart of Hezbollah territory is a big deal”.

Some reports have suggested that Egypt, a key mediator in the Israel-Hamas negotiations along with Qatar, has suspended mediations due to the attack but there’s been no official confirmation.

Red Sea

The Red Sea shipping route is still too dangerous for many companies to use after a spate of attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen who support Hamas – and have Iran’s backing.

The rebels claim to only aim to disrupt ships going to and from Israel, but some civilian vessels have been under threat.

The US also says Houthi rebels have fired two missiles at commercial vessels recently.

There is also a chance there global prices could rise in a few weeks because of the cost of re-routing vessels around the southern-most tip of Africa if the Red Sea becomes completely inaccessible.

Iran

Today’s unexplained explosions in the Middle Eastern country, which supports militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah, have raised further concerns that the crisis is going to escalate.

Explosions killed more than 100 people during a ceremony to mark the four year anniversary of the killing of an Islamic Revolutionary Corps general, Qassem Soleimani. He was assassinated by a US drone strike in Iraq in 2020.

There is no evidence yet to suggest Israel was behind these attacks, but as the BBC’s security correspondent Frank Gardner suggested, it will “inevitably raise tensions in the region”.

Iranian officials have also weighed in on the killing of the top Hamas official, blaming Israel for its “cowardly terrorist operations”.

Gaza

This is still the main focal point for the war and the death toll continues to rise.

According to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, more than 22,000 people have been killed since October 7, when the war began.

Although some Israeli troops have been withdrawn from Gaza, the adviser to Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Mark Regev, suggested this did not mean the violence was winding down. He told Sky News on Tuesday that the war is “a marathon not a sprint”.

Comments from the Israeli finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, that emigration from Gaza needs to be encouraged so that Israeli settlers can return to the area and “make the desert bloom” have added to fears that the government wants all Palestinians to leave Gaza.

According to UN estimates, 85% of the Gaza population – 1.9 million people – have been internally displaced since the war broke out.

Meanwhile, Hamas is still holding more than 100 hostages in Gaza.

Hamas’ leader Ismail Haniyeh has said that the remaining captives taken in October will only be released under conditions set by the militants.

They have previously said no hostages will be released until the war ends, while Israel do not want a permanent ceasefire.

What else is happening?

Israel is contesting South Africa’s genocide accusation at the International Court of Justice.

Tensions remain high in the West Bank too, with the Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas recently warning that the territory could “implode”.

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell called for other countries to step in to resolve the ongoing crisis.

Speaking at an event in Lisbon on Wednesday, he said: ”If this tragedy doesn’t end soon, the entire Middle East might end up in flames.”

Meanwhile, Turkey has arrested 33 people for suspected spying for Israel.

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So THIS Is Why We’re All Obsessed With ‘Plate Up’ Videos On TikTok

Right, I’m going to share a secret with you and I would prefer it if you didn’t judge me. If I can’t get going with cleaning or cooking at home, I watch other people doing it on TikTok and it gives me the motivation to get moving with my own duties.

Take for example, last Sunday. I really wanted to make a roast dinner. Of course, this takes a long time, a lot of different dishes, and is a whole effort. So, to get myself in the mood, I watched some of my favourite “plate up” creators on TikTok put their meals together on the plate and somehow, between the steam of the hot food, the delicate placement on the plate and the gravy being poured over all of it just put me right in the mood.

It turns out, I’m really not alone. Lots of us can’t get enough of these videos and according to HelloFresh, 270 million of us find ourselves enchanted by these cosy videos.

Why are plate up videos on TikTok so popular?

To truly get to the bottom of the psychology behind “plate up” videos, HelloFresh asked Consultant Counselling Psychologist Dr Ritz for her thoughts on the phenomena.

“There is a huge fascination of watching people cook on social media. It could be from gaining inspiration, building confidence or relaxing through the value of cooking and food. We can understand these trends from various psychological perspectives such as social cognitive theory, belonging and coping,” she explains.

And these are the main theories she outlined behind the trend:

Social Cognitive Theory:

“Social Cognitive Theory suggests that individuals learn by observing others. Viewers may be learning new cooking techniques, recipes, or gaining confidence in cooking by watching others. The social aspect of the trend aligns with theory’s emphasis on social learning through modelling.”

Mirror Neuron System:

“The Mirror Neuron System suggests that individuals have neurons that fire both when performing an action and when observing someone else perform that same action. In the context of cooking videos, viewers might experience a form of neural resonance, feeling a connection to the actions they observe and potentially triggering positive emotions.”

Belonging to a Community:

“Participating in or observing trends can create a sense of community among individuals who share similar interests. It contributes to the development of virtual communities centred around cooking and food, where people can exchange ideas and tips.”

Coping Mechanism:

“Watching cooking or meal preparation videos can serve as a form of relaxation and distraction. The repetitive and methodical nature of the process can be soothing, providing some respite from stress or daily challenges.”

Who knew it was more than just mindless viewing?

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Carol Vorderman Brands Shaun Bailey A ‘Misogynist’ After His Comments About Her On GB News

Carol Vorderman has called out Conservative peer Shaun Bailey after comments he made about her during an appearance on GB News last month.

Bailey – a former London mayoral candidate, who was appointed to the House Of Lords last year – recently took part in a debate on the divisive news channel, during which he criticised the former Countdown presenter’s credibility as a political commentator.

“Look, on one hand she’s got all that stuff on [X, formerly known as Twitter], you know, she’s a serious political commentator, and then if you look at her Instagram it’s all pictures of her bums and her boobs,” he claimed.

“So what is it, here? She can’t be both.”

Carol then hit back on her X page on Wednesday, accusing Bailey of being “sexist” and referring to him as the “jingle and mingle partygate apologist”, referring to a picture of him that surfaced at a gathering at Conservative Party headquarters that was taken while lockdown measures were in place.

“So, Shaun thinks that women who wear lycra in the gym shouldn’t be allowed a political opinion… or I assume a vote!” she continued.

“Failed Mayoral candidate #SexistShaun was made a Lord last year. Yet another Tory honour for dishonour.”

In a statement issued to HuffPost UK, Bailey said: “In a recent panel discussion, I used a clumsy form of words to describe Carol Vorderman’s Instagram posts.

“The point I was trying to make is Carol lives in a world of glitz and celebrity, as her Instagram portrays, but simultaneously demonises and bullies those who hold different political views to her own. I strongly support free speech. I don’t support bullying.”

HuffPost UK has also contacted GB News for comment.

Since uploading her post, Carol has been backed by the journalist Ava Evans, who herself was the subject of derogatory remarks by the actor Laurence Fox during Dan Wootton’s GB News show last year.

“Really exhausting to see this said about @CarolVorders,” Evans wrote. “It’s so easy to use your interview time to go for someone’s arguments, yet he can’t help himself but go for her body.”

While best known for her work as a TV personality on the likes of Countdown, Loose Women and This Morning, Carol has more recently made headlines for her numerous political takedowns on social media.

Back in November, Carol told her followers that she was stepping down from her show on BBC Wales as she was “not prepared to stop” criticising the UK government “for what it has done to the country I love”, after new social media guidelines were brought in for BBC employees.

“I was brought up to fight for what I believe in, and I will carry on,” she said.

The Maths expert also recently revealed that she was teaming up with the non-profit the Good Law Project, in a bid to expose a “trove” of previously-unseen material relating to the government’s handling of the Covid crisis.

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Lewis Capaldi Shares Heartfelt Update On Career Hiatus

Last June, Lewis Capaldi announced that he’d be taking a break from touring as he learned to live with Tourettes and anxiety, following a struggle with parts of his set at Glastonbury.

The much-loved singer received wide support and praise from fans and critics alike and said at the time: “I know I’m incredibly fortunate to be able to take some time out when others can’t and I’d like to thank my amazing family, friends, team, medical professionals and all of you who’ve been so supportive every step of the way through the good times and even more so during this past year when I’ve needed it more than ever.”

Adding, “Playing for you every night is all I’ve ever dreamed of so this has been the most difficult decision of my life. I’ll be back as soon as I possibly can.”

The “Someone You Loved” singer stayed relatively quiet on social media until New Year’s Eve when he finally gave a long-awaited update on X (formerly Twitter).

Lewis Capaldi health update

In the update, Lewis shared that taking time off has given him time to work with “incredible professionals” that have helped him learn more about Tourettes and how to cope with that and his anxiety issues, adding that he’s noticed a “marked improvement” since he took time off six months ago.

He added that the support that he received was “like nothing I’ve ever experienced” and assures fans that it has made him more excited than ever to return to doing what he loves.

He then went on to discuss his second album “Broken By Desire To Be Heavily Sent” and said, “it’s mind blowing to see the songs on this album still resonating with so many of you despite the fact that I’ve not been out there promoting it or touring, it means the world to me”.

Finally, the artist announced that an extended edition of the album has been released with five extra songs.

When it comes to his touring career, though, Lewis is still taking some time to recuperate. He said, “I’m going to continue to take some time to carry on looking after myself, maybe writing some music and taking a moment to reflect on some of the most incredible years of my life.”

Adding, “I want to make absolutely sure I’m 100% before getting back out there again properly for more shows and doing what I love more than anything!”

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2023 And 2022 Were The UK’s Hottest Years On Record, Met Office Says

2023 was the second hottest year since records began in the UK, according to provisional data from the Met Office, with the hottest year still being 2022.

While the UK did not experience same kind of record-breaking heatwave we saw in 2022 – and just dodged the extreme temperatures which hit southern Europe – the weather experts looked at the average mean temperature and found the climate across the two years was not too different.

2023 had a provisional mean temperature of 9.97C, while 2022′s average mean was 10.03C.

The third highest temperature for the UK was not very long ago either – it was in 2014, when the average of 9.88C. In fact, all of the ten warmest years in the UK have occurred since 2003.

The last year was also the warmest year for a minimum temperature, according to the Met Office, and was ranked the second warmed for Central England Temperature – that’s the world’s longest instrumental series dating back to 1659.

When just looking at Wales and Northern Ireland, they had their hottest year ever, while Northern Ireland had its wettest year since 2002.

Eight of the last 12 months were warmer than average for the UK, particularly June – the hottest for the UK on record – and September, when temperatures peaked at 33.5C on September 10.

As the Met Office pointed out, human-induced climate change is behind this.

2023′s temperature would have been around a 1-in-500 year event in a climate unaffected by humans – that’s a 0.2% chance of reaching the same temperature each year.

But, due to human’s carbon emissions, there’s now a 33% chance of reaching that mean temperature each year.

By the end of this century, that likelihood could increase to 79%.

And we already know the damage it is doing to the UK environment and biodiversity – the iconic oak tree is also under threat due to the changing temperatures.

The UK was not alone in seeing temperatures rise last year – 2023 is expected to be the hottest year globally.

Meanwhile, CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are also at their highest for at least two million years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change.

Met Office senior scientist Mike Kendon said: “The observations of the UK climate are clear.

“Climate change is influencing UK temperature records over the long term, with 2023 going down as another very warm year and the second warmest on record.

“Had the 2023 value occurred during the 20th Century, it would have been, by far, the warmest year on record.”

Of course, the climate crisis isn’t just about rising temperatures.

As Kendon said: “A warmer atmosphere has a greater capacity to hold moisture, so as our climate warms, we expect it to become wetter too and, while there is a large amount of annual variability, that trend is also apparent in the observations.”

We saw 11% more rain than average in 2023, with the UK’s sixth wettest March, July and joint-sixth wettest October, especially after storms like Babet and Ciaran.

December was also a particularly gloomy month – some counties in the UK only enjoyed around one hour per day of sunshine in December, according to the Met Office.

In fact the UK had just 27.9 hours of sunshine across the whole month.

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People Are Just Learning The Original Plot Of Pretty Woman, And It’s Horrifying

Speaking to Graham Norton on his self-titled chat show recently, Hollywood star Julia Roberts shared that the original screenplay for Pretty Woman was very different than the movie we all know and love.

Graham said that the movie was “much darker” in its original form ― and having heard Julia’s description of it, I have to agree.

“I auditioned for this movie that was called 3000,” the Erin Brockovich actor told Graham. The name referred to the amount of money the movie’s main character paid a sex worker ― “and she was a drug addict,” Julia explained.

“The movie ended by him pulling down a side street in Los Angeles, and they have a fight, and he just says, ‘Get out’ and he kind of throws her out the car, throws the money on her, and drives away. The end,” she added.

In fact, former studio executive Jeffrey Katzenberg has previously said that Julia’s character died of an overdose at the end of the initial script. Oof.

So, how did we end up with the film we know and love today?

“The company that was making it folded, and the movie disappeared and I was crushed,” Julia told Graham. “And the next thing I knew, they said, ‘Disney picked up this film… and Garry Marshall is going to direct it.’”

Disney, which is known for feelgood and child-friendly movies, was hardly likely to produce the script as-was ― and at that point in his career, Garry had worked on shows like The Fonz And The Happy Days Gang and Mork & Mindy.

So naturally, Julia was a little surprised by the pairing. “I was like, ‘oh, of course, this makes perfect sense to me,’” she sarcastically said of the change in director and producers.

“I went in to meet Garry, and he told me all the ways he was gonna change this and make it funny,” she shared with Graham.

In fact, she revealed some changes were so last-minute that they were, as Graham puts it, “kind of writing [the movie] as they were filming.”

“We would break at lunch at maybe 10:15 in the morning because we were out of pages,” Julia said. “We would just kind of, make it up ― Garry would do things like this… ‘Uhhh ― be funny! Action!’,” she added.

People were pretty surprised

“Imagine signing on to play a drug-addicted [sex worker] in a dark drama, then the producers tell you the film’s retooled into a rom-com with Disney money,” one commenter said in response to a YouTube short of the interview.

“That original ending sounds a lot more realistic,” another (rather depressingly) added.

“OMG! I loooove hearing about how movies and songs get made. The creative journey is filled with surprises!” yet another person shared.

I couldn’t agree more…

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Trump Fans Aren’t Happy Green Day Slammed The ‘MAGA Agenda’

During the band’s performance on New Year’s Eve, lead singer Billie Joe Armstrong changed a line from its hit “American Idiot” from “I’m not a part of a redneck agenda” to “I’m not a part of the MAGA agenda.”

As you can see from the clip below that the crowd cheered at the lyric change.

But the “Make America great again” believers reacted to Green Day’s “MAGA agenda” dis by having a mega tizzy on social media.

Trump fans attempted to shade the band as “sellouts,” “losers” and “pro big government.”

However, many people who were pro-Green Day and/or anti-MAGA were quick to point out that the band has made no secret about its politics and that the song was written as a critique of George W. Bush’s presidency.

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Sunak Condemned For Boasting About Banning Foreign Students From Bringing Family To UK

Rishi Sunak has been roasted on social media after he boasted about banning most foreign students from bringing family to the UK.

The ban is a key element of Sunak’s plan to bring down the number of immigrants coming to Britain.

Last year, 136,000 visas were issued to the dependants of foreign students – up from 16,000 in 2019.

In a New Year’s Day post on X (formerly Twitter), the prime minister said the policy showed the government was “already delivering for the British people” in 2024.

But Sunak was condemned in the replies to his post on X.

One user said: “Imagine bragging about this. Embarrassing.”

Another added: “Performative spite as a policy. How low have we sunk?”

Others pointed out that it could lead to foreign students choosing to enrol at universities abroad.

Cambridge University lecturer Sir Richard Evans said: “This is so short-sighted and arrogant. It affects, above all, international graduate students in their mid to late 20s, many with families. Research-intensive universities depend heavily on them for income since they can charge economic fees for them, unlike for undergraduates.”

But home secretary James Cleverly said the government has “set out a tough plan to rapidly bring numbers down, control our borders and prevent people from manipulating our immigration system”.

He added: “Today, a major part of that plan comes into effect, ending the unreasonable practice of overseas students bringing their family members to the UK,” he added.

“This will see migration falling rapidly by the tens of thousands and contribute to our overall strategy to prevent 300,000 people from coming to the UK.”

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