Rankin Is Breaking Stigma And Healing Through Photography

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NaNoWriMo – Days 6-12

I just finished my 12th day of novel writing for NaNoWriMo. Since I started on November 1st, my novel has grown from 0 to 21,087 words. I’ve written 17 scenes so far, so I’m averaging 1240 words per scene.

While I had some aspects figured out before I began, I’m mostly pantsing it as I go.

I’m not writing the scenes in order, preferring to jump around a lot. So far I’ve written 4 scenes for Act 1, 10 scenes for Act 2, and 3 scenes for Act 3.

Words Are Cheap

I can usually write a draft of one scene in 30-60 minutes, depending on how long it is. Since it doesn’t take much investment to write a scene, throwing some words onto the screen is an easy way to explore possibilities. I don’t feel attached to a scene that took less than an hour to write.

It would be easy to overthink a scene by planning it out in detail, but I could easily spend more time planning a scene instead of just writing it. I’m also likely to discover a few things while writing that I wouldn’t have anticipated during planning.

Writing without much planning is a discovery process. I don’t always know where a scene will go when I begin it. I like to listen to the characters to see where they naturally want to take the scene.

I’ve written a few scenes that are inconsistent with other parts of the story, so they couldn’t all co-exist in the same book. I’m doing this deliberately since I want to explore alternative ways of telling different pieces of the story. It’s like writing a Choose Your Own Adventure book and then collapsing it into a linear story when I can see what the most interesting path is.

Motives and Subtext

The writing is getting easier, especially as I get to know the characters better. As I deepen my understanding of a character’s motives and desires, the character basically writes their own dialogue for me.

When I first started writing but didn’t know the characters very well, it was harder to write dialogue that sounded natural because I didn’t really know what each character wanted. At first I would just have them talk for the sake of talking, which led to bland, stiff, and lifeless dialogue. When the characters aren’t clear in my mind, their dialogue is very “on the nose,” meaning that it’s too direct.

When I read back this type of dialogue, it reminds me of what I commonly see in very amateurish fiction, where every character pretty much speaks the same way.

A scene feels very different when characters speak with an agenda in mind. Having a clear agenda makes it easier for a character to convey details through subtext. It also makes it easier to differentiate characters.

In good stories characters communicate a great deal through subtext. People don’t say what they really mean.

Building Fiction Circuits

I feel like the more dialogue I write, the more my brain is building out the circuitry and algorithms for this particular skill set. Whereas in the beginning this type of writing feel like pushing through mud, now it’s flowing more easily, which makes it more enjoyable too. It’s really so much nicer in Week 2 than it was in Week 1.

To pace myself to reach 50K words on November 30th, I should be at 20,004 words today, so I’m now 1083 words ahead of schedule. My goal when I began was to get ahead a little and stay there, and that’s what I’ve done, padding the buffer but a little more each day. Framing this as a daily commitment to write 1667 words per day (plus a little extra) is working nicely.

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We Need More Sleep, Less Screen Time. The Pandemic Is Messing With Both

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Will AI Make You an Addict?

The novel I’m writing is set in the future, tentatively in the year 2047, so it’s roughly one human generation ahead of us. For technology, however, that’s many generations ahead.

Consider that the first iPhone shipped in 2007 (13 years ago). If you got an iPhone 4S when it first came out, that was 9 years ago, and the 5S was 7 years ago.

The iPad is 10.5 years old. The Apple Watch is 5.5 years old.

Look back 27 years to 1993. Back then I was using a 486DX 50mhz computer with a 250MB hard drive. I think it was about $2500 when I bought it. I did some contract programming for a local game developer that year, and I remember using a 486DX 33mhz machine at their office each day. I wrote games for Windows 3.1, and I also heavily used DOS apps (with MS-DOS 6.0), mainly because Windows apps were still pretty slow.

Technically there was an Internet. I think we were using 14.4k modems back then since 28.8K ones didn’t come out till the following year… and 56K a couple years after that.

Web browsing, like with Netscape Navigator, didn’t really start becoming a thing till 1994-95. I build my first website in 1995 for my computer game business. Before the Web started taking off, people often thought of the Internet as geeky college stuff, or it was some kind of paid service like AOL, CompuServe, or Prodigy.

So that was 27 years ago, which seems like ages ago. Now I’m trying to write a novel projected 27 years into the future. That’s difficult, and I’ll surely guess wrong about a lot of things. But it’s a fun thought experiment nonetheless, especially if you love tech as I do.

My current approach is to just journal about the world and let my brain start making connections. As I see some ideas flowing onto the screen, I begin thinking about how they’ll combine. I think about the benefits and drawbacks of these combos. This helps me assemble the world in which my story can take place.

I also have to consider that the pace of change in the next 27 years will be way faster than what happened over the last 27 years. So it might be more like comparing today with 1950s tech.

One trend in particular that seems interesting to explore is AI and personalization.

For instance, I imagine that sometime within the next 27 years, you’ll be able to say most or all of these things to one of your devices, and you’ll be able to expect a good result:

  • Create and play an original episode of Star Trek: The Next Generation with the original cast, just for me. Cast my wife as a guest character.
  • Generate a new sci-fi series that you think I’ll like. Give it 5 seasons, 10-12 episodes per season, and 40-45 minutes per episode. Have it star Brad Pitt, Sandra Bullock, and Tom Hanks at their ages from the year 2000. And include a robot character with Jim Carrey’s voice.
  • Generate and add 10 attractive photos of me to that new dating app I installed.
  • Generate a new open-world fantasy video game similar to Zelda: Breath of the Wild 5. Name the lead character Schmoopie. Include the Three Stooges as quest companions that I meet as I play. Make it take about 200 hours to finish if I do all of the side quests. Make all the food and characters in the game world vegan. Save it to be played on my XBox One XS version X One. Monitor my responses as I play to make sure I’m having fun.
  • Plan a vacation trip for my wife and me to Italy in the spring. Include Rome and Venice. Make it two weeks in duration. Include the major stops you think we’d appreciate, but also give us plenty of time to wander and explore. Keep it under $7K total cost for the trip, but not too much under. Book it and add it to my calendar. Book-end the trip with a self-driving car pickup and drop off at my house. Create a 5-minute preview video of us enjoying the trip, and send it to my wife and me. After the trip, generate a 30-minute highlight video of us on the trip, and add it to our family camera roll.
  • Generate a new 12-song Depeche Mode album in the style of Violator but with shades of Songs of Faith and Devotion – with Alan Wilder as a band member please. Play it during my run tomorrow.

I think we’ll see a big explosion of AI and personalization, especially when it comes to media. I think it’s just a matter of time before AI is smart enough to generate custom experiences. AI can already generate original photos, artwork, and music now. And it can generate movies too with some major limitations. It’s also being used to upscale older videos to 4K resolution or better. It will take time, but I think that AI-generated content will eventually become the primary source of entertainment for most people. I think human-created content will still be around, but AI will improve more rapidly in this area, and the costs are much, much lower. It’s probably just a matter of time before AI surpasses humans at creating TV shows, movies, video games, VR worlds, and more.

I think we’ll see some intermediate steps between now and then, like TV shows or movies where you can change the actors. There may be legal hurdles to that though.

Fortunately the goal of creating a story world isn’t accuracy. I think the goal is to identify interesting sources of conflict. How will the world of the future challenge people?

One big issue I see is the rise of addiction. We’re already seeing AI being used in this way by Facebook. Now imagine if you were able to use AI for your own pleasure, and you give it access to data that it can use for that purpose. Suppose that while you’re watching a movie or playing a game, the AI can monitor your pulse, analyze your face in real-time, and use that data to sense how your biology is responding in each moment. Then it can generate more personalized content for you. It’s an echo chamber for one.

This creates interesting opportunities to though, especially in a capitalist society. We’re also likely to see more AI thrown at the problem of fighting addiction.

I appreciate fictional stories that highlight future problems. They help us map out the possibility space, including dangers to be avoided. A few good examples are 1984, The Terminator, and Gattaca. While fictional and exaggerated, they also point to genuine risks.

Writing a novel that helps to serve as a potential warning appeals to me. The story I’m writing (now past 17K words) is actually pretty dark. Here are some questions I’m currently exploring through the story arc:

  • How might the relationship between AI and addiction unfold?
  • What if people are empowered to use AI in ways that could lead to addictive behaviors?
  • How far will corporations go in using AI to addict their customers to their products and services?
  • Which commands that people might give AI are likely to lead to addictions?
  • What can humans do about AIs that are actively trying to condition addictive patterns?
  • How might AI be used to fight or prevent addictions?
  • Could humanity actually trap itself in an inescapable cage of AI-fueled addiction? If so, what would that cage look like?

While we could get lost in projecting many different technologies forward, for this purpose I favor keeping the world relatively simple and easy to grasp, so readers can be more immersed in the characters, the plot, and the themes rather than having to read endless description about the world.

As I work on this project, I note that the risks I’m identifying are also real. I think people will become increasingly vulnerable to tech-related addictions in the years ahead. Writing this book helps me think about how that may play out and what the potential solutions might be. So there’s an interesting relationship between exploring ahead with a fiction project and helping people prepare for upcoming personal challenges.

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Strictly Come Dancing: Jason Bell Is Eliminated After Movie Week Performance

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NaNoWriMo – Days 4-5

Here are my latest progress updates for my novel:

Day 4

I had a very pleasant writing session on this day, now at 6872 words total. I’m starting to enjoy this more as the scenes are coming together, and I’m getting more familiar with the key characters.

I spent some time organizing the manuscript scene structure before I wrote any scenes this time. I created placeholders for the remaining signpost scenes, found a cleaner way to arrange my existing notes, and did a little more journaling with my characters.

In general I find that journaling with my characters and asking them what we ought to write today is a great way to begin each writing session. This is basically the method from Stature called “Chorus” applied to fiction.

Another ace of a habit is listening to brain.fm focus tracks while writing. When using the phone app version, I prefer the “deep work” tracks for this type of work. Oddly the “creative flow” tracks tend to make me sleepy.

On Day 4 I wrote two more signpost scenes:

  • The Doorway of No Return #2, which is the final scene of Act 2
  • Mounting Forces, which is the first scene of Act 3

This gives me a sense of how Act 2 could end and how Act 3 can begin. I’m not sure if I’ll keep these scenes as-is though. It’s an interesting place to take the story, but I’m not sure if these particular scenes will set the characters up for a strong enough ending.

Playing with the signpost scenes is like figuring out the spine of the story. I can see how it will be easier to fill in the remaining scenes once I figure these out. It’s basically the 80/20 rule applied to fiction writing. Figure out your 20% most important scenes, and write and arrange those first. Those are the scenes that provide 80% of the value.

Day 5

I’m at 8605 words total now. On this day I wrote the Lights Out scene, which is signpost scene #11 and the second scene of Act 3.

This is the dark, bleak, “all hope is lost” scene that sets things up for the finale.

It’s interesting that in many story structures, right after the lead character makes a big decision, you knock them down a notch in the next scene (or shortly thereafter). One reason for doing this is that it raises the stakes, showing just how big or risky the decision really is. This increases the tension and helps maintain good pacing. The “Lights Out” scene raises the stakes as high as they’ll go.

Isn’t real life like this too sometimes? You may make a big decision such as to quit your job or leave a relationship, and now you have an upcoming scene where you have to tell your boss or partner, and that’s often an unpleasant situation that knocks you back a bit. But then you can at least have some recovery scenes afterwards.

In fiction and in real life, courage is a big part of the journey. Without sufficient courage, you can’t make those big decisions, and the story can’t progress.

This was a hard scene to write, so it took me considerably longer to write than any other scene. I kept pausing and reflecting along the way on where to take it next, like after every few hundred words. There were a lot of options at each point.

This is also a very unusual Lights Out scene, not something I’ve seen elsewhere. While the idea of having a scene like this isn’t new, the way I’m approaching it isn’t familiar to me. It’s close to an addict hitting rock bottom, but it’s actually way worse than that. It’s like taking an addictive drug that’s also conscious, so it won’t let you quit even when you decide to.

I wonder if I overdid it though. I buried the main character so deeply in this scene that it looks totally impossible for her to escape her fate now. But that also makes it kinda interesting to see if I can use this. If I can’t see a way out, the reader may not be able to see any way out either.

The writing is feeling a little easier now that I’ve done five days of it. It’s still challenging though. If I didn’t have my daily quota of writing at least 1667 words each day, my word count would surely be lower at this point.

I feel like what I’m really doing this month is mapping out the story space. There are so many permutations and branches of the story I could write. Every writing session gives me more clarity about what I could do, but it won’t necessarily be what I end up going with.

I find the “words are cheap” mindset helpful. It’s not that difficult to throw a scene onto the screen and see how it turns up and then reflect upon how it fits with the other scenes. At this point I’m not worrying at all about polished language. I’m writing the scenes fairly plainly to explore more possibilities each day.

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NaNoWriMo – Day 2

On Day 2 of NaNoWriMo, I wrote 1743 more words, so I’m at 3439 words for my novel so far. Today I’ll pass 5K words.

While the challenge is technically to write 50K words in 30 days, I’m framing it as a daily commitment to write at least 1667 words per day. So I’ll surely end up with more than 50K words by the end. My approach is less flexible since I won’t be taking any days off, nor will I reduce the daily quota based on my ongoing word count. It’s easier for me this way since I’ll never let myself fall behind, so I’ll avoid the trap of having to write thousands of extra words to catch up later. Today is Day 3, and some people are already feeling behind because they didn’t write much on the first two days. I’d rather always feel like I’m ahead for the rest of the month. I’m ahead in my word count now, and I’m going to pad my lead each day going forward. I will never be behind, only ahead.

As I’ve noted many times before, you win a 30-day challenge before you start Day 1. It’s all in the early game. I’m well aware of the tricks and traps my mind will succumb to if I don’t frame and approach the challenge correctly, so I remove the riskiest excuses in advance. Sometimes that means being extra strict, but there’s a hidden ease and lightness in that strictness that many people overlook.

I also feel compassion for my future self, so I won’t to burden him with having to do a 5K- or 10K-word catch-up day this month. If he wants to blast out more words for fun because he wants to, he has that option, but I won’t force that obligation onto him. I’m just going to stick with a steady pacing one day at a time.

I began Day 2 by re-reading what I wrote on Day 1, fixing a couple of typos and making a few more editing notes but otherwise not doing any editing. I just want to focus on writing to get the ideas down. Some Nano participants have cautioned that it’s risky to re-read previous work during the challenge since they too easily get sucked into editing, which doesn’t advance their word count. I don’t find that to be an issue so far though. Making some editing notes is enough for me. I might toss out entire scenes later, so I don’t see the point in editing them prematurely. I see this as being similar to optimizing code that was written for a prototype, which is usually pointless since that code will likely be refactored or replaced anyway. Since I’m just prototyping my novel, sloppy code (or writing) is fine for now. Little or nothing of what I write for this draft is likely to make it into the final version.

I take to heart the advice that the purpose of the first draft is to write the story for myself. That mindset is helpful since it encourages me to just explore the ideas and possibilities and not fuss over how bad it is.

This time I wrote two shorter scenes of roughly equal length, so I have three scenes done now. Instead of writing two more scenes in order though, I skipped ahead and wrote the first two scenes of Act II. So I still have more to fill in for Act I, but I like that this helps me see one of the upcoming signposts that I want to reach. I think I have a better sense of where to take Act I now that I see how Act II begins.

I recently learned about James Scott Bell’s 14-signpost plot structure, and I like it so far. It fits my novel idea pretty well, so I’m loosely using it for my scaffolding. I think it’s more useful and insightful than the common 7-point plot structure or the 12-point hero’s journey or any of the other structures I’ve seen so far.

Within this signpost model, I wrote signpost scene #1 on Day 1 (The Disturbance), and on Day 2 I wrote signpost scene #5 (Doorway of No Return #1), along with another scene right after after signpost scene #5.

However, after that writing session, I did more reading about this structure, and I realized that it would probably be wise to insert signpost scene #6 (A Kick in the Shins) immediately after signpost scene #5.

In The Matrix movie, think of signpost scene #5 as the scene where Neo decides to take the red pill. That’s his first doorway of no return. What happens immediately after that? He swallows the pill, and now he’s on his way out of the Matrix. He touches a mirror, which sticks to him and then spreads over his skin, making him freak out. The crew makes it clear that his life is in danger while they race against time to trace his signal. Then Neo’s real human body wakes up – hairless, naked, and covered in slime. Eventually he gets dumped down a chute and picked up by Morpheus’ ship. But now he’s really weak and has to build up muscles he’s never used. I think that’s a good example of signpost scene #6 (A Kick in the Shins) following immediately after signpost scene #5 (Doorway of No Return #1).

The purpose of giving the protagonist a kick in the shins right after they commit to a new course of action is to show that the stakes are indeed high – often life or death. Neo doesn’t just take the red pill and find himself dancing with Smurfs. He’s blasted with some hefty seriousness, and the risks become more real and present. Notice what this does for the pacing and tension of the story. Imagine how Act II would flow if there was no kick in the shins. The tension and momentum would drop, and the pacing would feel slower.

I find it empowering to study story structure as I go along. This way I can connect my actual writing to the structural elements I’m learning, so the study is immediately practical. Bell’s signpost structure helps me think about the next signpost coming up that I can aim for, so there’s a purposeful progression to what I’m writing.

While I don’t have to use a known structure as a guide, it sure is helpful when just starting out. It’s also fun and rewarding to spot these structural elements in books and movies, like The Matrix. Once you see those patterns, you cannot unsee them.

I’d like to spend some time watching more classic movies this month to ponder their structure. I really enjoyed the deep analysis that was done at Robert McKee’s Story seminar last year, where we took six hours to go through Casablanca scene by scene. That gave me a whole new appreciation of the movie.

Overall the writing process on Day 2 was slower going than Day 1, taking about 90 minutes. I had to pause and think more about the character interactions and action flow. I really notice how inefficient my mental circuitry is at writing fiction. When I write nonfiction articles, ideas flow in and words flow out with nary a hint of friction or resistance. My subconscious constructs sentences and paragraphs for me. I watch as my fingers type. Editing is super easy too.

But with fiction it’s a whole different story (pun intended). It feels like I’m using brain circuitry that’s clogged with sludge. Ideas flow in, but they get bogged down in mental marshland, occasionally spitting out gobs of muddy language. I have to consciously push my thoughts through the tubes, just to get some ill-formed words and phrases splattering onto the screen. My mind pops and stutters in confusion. It takes real mental effort just to squeeze out one sentence at a time. And it’s way more taxing and draining.

Writing a nonfiction blog post about my fiction writing is so much easier and more effortless than writing the fiction itself.

These experiences are very different emotionally too. Blogging usually feels delightful – so light, playful, meaningful, flowing, and graceful as my fingers dance and skip around the keys like happy kids playing hopscotch.

Writing fiction feels darker for me. There’s tension, tightness, and awkwardness in the experience. It’s like I’m back in school doing a mandatory speech contest – a dreadful experience that I hated. But then when the day’s writing is done, there’s a feeling of relief, and I can breathe easier again.

It would be wonderful to reach the point where fiction content flows through my mind with the same ease as nonfiction. Maybe in a million words or so, I’ll be at that point. In the meantime I’m okay with the friction phase, which slows me down but doesn’t stop me. Lots of learning experiences are like this in the beginning.

Here are two things that helped:

  • Before I started writing, I did a quick journaling Q&A with the main character to ask her what she wanted me to write today and how she wanted me to express her character. She gave me some suggestions on ways to express more personality for her. This was harder to write at first, but it made for more interesting (less bland) dialogue. I’m gradually feeling more connected with this character.
  • Listening to brain.fm focus tracks while writing is wonderful for reducing the mental and emotional tension. It helps me relax into the creative writing experience.

Onward to Day 3…

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NaNoWriMo – Day 1

I did my first day of NaNoWriMo yesterday, writing the first 1696 words of a new novel – basically one full scene from start to finish. It took an hour with a 10-min break in the middle, so it was 50 minutes of writing time.

And oh it’s bad – so hideously bad – but it’s a start. It introduces a couple of characters, including the protagonist, sets up the theme, and has a bunch of dialog, but as far as fiction writing goes, it needs a lot of work.

I made some editing notes too, just to jot down some changes and improvements that popped into my mind along the way. I put those in a different section of the doc, so Scrivener didn’t count them as part of the word count. I like that Scrivener will just count the words in the Manuscript section, and it plays a sound and pops up a message when I hit my daily word count goal, which is 1667 words.

I was curious about how much I could leverage my nonfiction writing experience to get into fiction. I do think it helps a little but not as much as you might think. Writing fiction feels very different because I have to think about characters and plot and scene flow. It’s not just about communicating ideas and actions steps. I think it’s going to take me a while to get into a fiction-writing mindset. There’s definitely going to be a learning curve there.

I’m investing in the learning curve directly by listening to audiobooks on fiction writing every morning. I’ve also been reading articles and watching YouTube videos from experienced writers to learn more about storycraft. I want to continue investing in the learning side while I’m also doing the writing, so I can connect the dots between what I’m learning from others and what I’m actually encountering as I write.

I’m sure that given enough time, I can learn the craft of writing decent fiction too, even if it takes years. It isn’t easy though because there’s a lot to think about and pay attention to, and I’m just beginning to learn the basics.

Honestly I think what helps me way more than my previous writing experience is my personal development know-how, mindsets, and frameworks.

One thing that helps is to think about the purpose for getting into this. Why bother? Is it just to write one novel? I find it more motivating to learn the craft of fiction as another medium of self-expression. It’s a whole new world of self-development to explore. I feel that it would add something precious to my character if I could learn how to do this.

I was surprised to see that a lot of people do NaNoWriMo, create a draft of a new book, and then never finish it up and publish it. And they may do NaNoWriMo year after year without publishing anything, not even self-publishing. I don’t want to write a story just for myself. Part of my motivation is to write something to share. I’m already imagining people reading it someday. To me that raises the stakes and makes me feel more invested in learning how to write good fiction. I don’t just want to crank out some drivel to sit in cloud storage indefinitely. It doesn’t cost anything to set more ambitious goals, and thinking bigger tends to be more motivating than thinking small.

I also love to adopt frames that let me enjoy and embrace the beginner phase when my skills are weakest and there’s a lot road of learning and mistakes ahead. I have lots of different frames that have helped me there, such as:

  • If you want to win, you’ve got to begin.
  • Everyone falls the first time.
  • It’s better than being in jail.
  • It can only get better from here.
  • Embrace the suck.
  • Laugh at yourself.
  • It’s called learning.
  • If I can learn ____, I can learn this.
  • Even writing a bad scene feels like an accomplishment.
  • Every step is a step forward.
  • Stop whining and just go.
  • Everyone’s got a plan… till they get hit.
  • Do you want to do this – or watch other people do it?
  • Do you want the memory?
  • It’s just typing.
  • I’ll fix it in editing.
  • I can at least write better than most monkeys.
  • This will be a growth experience.
  • Whatever it takes!
  • So it’s to be torture then. I can cope with torture.

It’s important to separate ego from results, especially when you’re first starting out. It’s unreasonable to expect yourself to do well at something new. It takes time to build experience.

When I start something new, I give myself permission to be bad at it, and I don’t beat myself up for that. It’s just my starting point. That makes me feel optimistic since I know I’ll get better with more practice. The 50th scene I write will surely be better than the first one I wrote yesterday.

This morning while listening to an audiobook on writing, the author shared that many writers seem to hit a wall at around 30,000 words, where it seems like a real slog to get to the end. Maybe that will happen, and maybe it won’t, but it’s good to know that there may be walls ahead and that one solution is to just keep writing more scenes. Walls are normal with different learning experiences. If you have a good purpose though, you just keep going. Your purpose must be larger than the obstacles you’ll encounter. An obstacle is a lesson and an invitation to further growth, not an excuse to quit.

If you’re only writing for yourself, I think it’s easier to stop and quit when things get tough. Or you can just let the project fade away. If I just want to write for myself, I can do that in my journal. But a novel is for other people. So I’m thinking about – and designing it for – the eventual readers.

This elevates the experience in my mind. It’s not just a solo pursuit. I imagine one day chatting at a coffee shop with someone who’s read the book, as we both enjoy discussing the characters and themes together.

When I enjoy a nice work of fiction like a book, movie, video game, or TV series, I sometimes think: How cool it is that someone created this! What a nice gift.

Have you ever thought this way? Have you ever at least internally felt some appreciation for the massive creative and cultural abundance you’ve been able to enjoy? Or do you take it for granted?

I was really into movie culture while growing up in L.A. On many weekend nights, my high school friends and I would drive to Hollywood or Westwood to see movies there, often on opening night. Then afterwards we’d hang out, maybe grab a late night bite to eat, and discuss the movie we just saw or quote various lines back to each other. I found so much enjoyment and connection – and sometimes solace – in the fictional works that other people created. I think that always made me want to gift something back to that space.

There’s something about fiction that plugs into culture in a way that nonfiction really doesn’t. I feel like I’m already plugged into so many expressions of culture as someone who appreciates other people’s fictional worlds and characters. Now I’d like to learn how to connect with that world with some creative energy as well.

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Starting NaNoWriMo

NaNoWriMo (National Novel Writing Month) begins today, and this is the first year I’m participating. Shortly after posting this, I’m kicking off a 30-day challenge to write at least 50,000 words of a novel this month, which works out to 1667 words per day.

Here’s how I’m framing it: I’ve never written a novel before, and I’ve always wanted to. It’s something I want to add to my life resumé. While I could do this entirely on my own, it’s more fun and engaging to ride along with the energy of NaNoWriMo. I’ve thought about doing this for many past Novembers, and the year of COVID seems like the perfect year to start.

I’ve never written a novel before, so I don’t actually know how to do it. I haven’t written short stories either. Great! It will be a learning and growth experience then. That’s reason enough to do it.

I can also share what I learn along the way since I’m still going to be blogging every day this year anyway.

Here’s something I just learned last month.

There are three basic approaches for writing a novel:

Plotter/Planner – Map out as much of your story as you can before you begin. At least know the key beats of your story, the main characters, and how you’re going to end the story. Some plotters will have every scene planned out ahead of time. J.K. Rowling is a famous plotter.

Pantser – Write by the seat of your pants, making up the story as you go along. You may have no clue what the plot turns and scenes will be or where you’ll end up. Start with a basic idea, just start writing, and see what happens.

A famous pantser is Stephen King. I recently listened to the audiobook version of On Writing (read by him personally) where he talks about his writing style. He likes to begin with a situation and one or more characters, and then he see what happens as he writes. Getting into the minds of his characters helps him figure out what they’ll do in each situation, and his characters often surprise him.

Plantser – This is a mix of plotter and pantser. Do some advance planning, and also take advantage of pantsing mode. Of course there’s a whole spectrum here, so a plantser may lean closer to plotter or to pantser.

My intention for this novel-writing experience is to use plantsing. I figure that plotting and pantsing are tools, so I might as well give myself access to both.

A couple of weeks ago, I didn’t know what type of book I’d write. Since then I’ve loosely mapped out a sci-fi story, a few characters, a theme, some of the world, and some plot turns. I’ve set up a Scrivener project to keep everything organized nicely, much like I would for creating a new course.

Last weekend I wrote a 3000-word summary of my story from start to finish. That summary is very loose though with multiple options for what could happen along the way. I have a sense of how I’ll end the story, but I’m also giving myself a lot of flexibility to make things up as I go.

One the nonfiction side I’ve used all of these approaches. Almost every blog post I’ve written pantsing style. I don’t outline. I just begin with a loose idea, and then I write off the cuff from start to finish and see what flows out. Immediately afterwards I do an editing pass to tighten things up and potentially add more structure or clarification.

For my book Personal Development for Smart People, I used plotting. I mapped out all of the key ideas chapter by chapter with dozens of sticky notes before I started writing. I must say that I didn’t enjoy the writing process as much though. With everything mapped out so tightly, there wasn’t much room for enjoying the flow of inspiration, so the writing felt very mental.

For the courses (Deep Abundance Integration, Submersion, and Stature), I used a form of co-creative plantsing. Each individual lesson was mapped out before recording, but the overall structure and topics were based on going with the flow of inspiration and feedback along the way. This was my favorite approach – a great mix of structure and flow. And people who’ve gone through the courses seem to like the results as well.

Co-creatively plantsing a fiction novel could be a lot of fun, but it also adds complexity, not to mention more time for all the feedback. So I’m not using that approach for NaNoWriMo. I want to dive into the solo novel-writing experience first to see what that’s like.

One tip I found helpful is to remember that the first draft is just for the writer. No one else has to see it. So the first draft could turn out very ugly. You’re just writing the story for yourself, figuring out where the story and characters want to go. Afterwards you can use what you learn from this draft and do a round of plotting, such as by mapping out all of your scenes, before writing a second draft.

I’m approaching this NaNoWriMo experience like an exploration. I’m not attached to how the story turns out, and the basic planning I’ve done thus far is just to serve as a loose guide, like picking a topic for a blog post. So each day I’m just going to dive in and write to see what flows through. I may not even write scenes in linear order.

Many people participate in NaNoWriMo and write stories only for themselves, never publishing what they write. That isn’t my intention though. I’d like to create a story to share, not just write one for myself. This month is just to get a first draft done though, so don’t expect a completed novel to read until sometime in 2021 at the earliest.

Okay… time for some breakfast and then some writing. 🙂

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My 2020 Election Prediction

Here’s my prediction for the U.S. election, which is just 4 days away… and also some predictions for what I think will happen in the months after that.

I expect that Biden is going to win by a landslide and that it’s not even going to be close.

Yes, Trump and the Republicans will continue doing their best to suppress the vote, especially in the swing states, but I don’t think it’s going to make enough of a difference to change the election outcome. The fact that they’re doing this at such an unprecedented scale is a sign of incredible desperation. Even with such overt attempts to cheat, I don’t think those efforts will be nearly enough to tilt the election away from a massive Biden win. If anything I think that stooping so low is backfiring by riling up even more people to vote for Biden – and to vote earlier than they otherwise would have.

It’s understandable that after the 2016 election, a lot of people are feeling trepidatious, like they’re still suffering from PTSD after having endured four years of such monumental stupidity and insanity. People don’t want to get their hopes up this time till they know the outcome for sure. They’re wondering if the polls that show a massive Biden lead are accurate enough to be trusted this time.

Sometimes when you bet on a 90% likely outcome, that nasty 10% comes up now and then. I think one issue with this election is that many people regard the 90% likely outcome as decent and okay but more about relief than genuine excitement, whereas that 10% probability leads to a really dark, scary, and violent place. So that 10% draws a lot of attention because of how awful it is. People really want to avoid that pit of despair.

It’s like spinning a roulette wheel where one of the slots on the wheel results in the loss of a finger. Even if all of the remaining slots represent modest wins or losses, you’re likely to be fixated on that one horrendous potential outcome, even though it’s very unlikely to happen on a single spin.

I’m not entirely sure if a Biden victory will become clear on election night this time, but I anticipate that some news outlets will call a Biden victory on election night. I think that when a Biden victory is initially declared though, many people are going to want more certainty and reassurance about that outcome. People will wonder if it’s really true. So I also expect that it will probably take 48-72 hours before there’s a real social consensus around Biden’s victory. Then I think there’s going to be a lot of celebrating.

I also predict that afterwards it will be a bit messy. Trump will predictably behave like a whiny sore loser. He’ll cry foul and will resort to more dirty tricks, and conspiracy theories will circulate. But I also think there will be a strong enough pushback against that sort of nonsense to keep it well-contained and limited in scope. I expect that enough people are going to put their foot down on this one and not allow things to backslide into what we’ve had to deal with for the past four years. Too many people are really eager for a transition, and I think they’ll band together to prevent a backslide once the election outcome is clear enough.

I also think that resistance from Trump’s own party will limit what he can do after he’s lost. I think fewer people will be willing to play the role of enabler for him. We’re already seeing signs of that now. So that’s going to limit his options. He’ll be able to rile people up on social media as usual, but I don’t think he’ll get enough traction to do what it would take to stop himself from being steamrolled out of office.

I don’t think it’s going to make enough of a difference what Trump does after the election. People already expect him to behave like he’s always been behaving – badly – and so they’ll tolerate a few more months of that nonsense until January, after which they’ll absolutely refuse to tolerate any more of it. So I expect that Biden will take office in January.

I don’t think we’ll be seeing a big revolution or a ton of violence between now and January. There may be some isolated incidents after Trump loses, but I think it will be very limited in scope, nothing close to a national uprising (even if Trump tries to label it as such).

If Trump goes totally off the deep-end, and I wouldn’t discount that possibility, I think he’ll run into serious headwinds with both mainstream and social media resisting those efforts. While those outlets may benefit from stirring up some fear and social outrage, an all-out revolution isn’t in their interests, and being seen as enabling or promoting violence isn’t good for their brands, so I think we can expect the media to act out of self-interest in this case and crack down on anything like that hard and fast. So even if Trump tries to incite his supporters into violence, I don’t think he’ll get far with that approach. He’s too boxed in by strong counter-forces that ought to keep him in check. The media will let him do some damage as long as it’s entertaining and keeps generating clicks and views, but not so much that it creates a crazy-high level of risk for them.

Biden will have his work cut out for him, and I think that due to the coronavirus situation, people aren’t going to want him to wait to start turning things around. So I anticipate that by mid-November, people will already be looking to Biden to start seriously leading in whatever ways he can. I think people will be treating him as our de facto President well before he actually takes office, marginalizing Trump more and more. For starters it wouldn’t surprise me if Biden and Fauci start doing joint press conferences together by the end of the year, sharing how they’re already working cooperatively on the coronavirus situation. And I think Biden would be smart to do that.

After the 2016 election, Obama made an effort to transition gracefully, including inviting Trump to the White House, where Obama welcomed him and showed him around. I don’t expect Trump to do this for Biden. I expect that Trump will cry foul and whine about the outcome and keep spinning up more lies and promoting conspiracies, even long after January. I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Trump to leave office graciously.

Even after leaving office, Trump will retain his big social media following, so we can expect him to continue being an online menace. It wouldn’t surprise me if he continues playing the role of conspiracy promoter for many more years. I also think that social media outlets like Twitter and Facebook will take increasing flak for tolerating his lies once he’s no longer President. I don’t think they’ll ban him outright, but I’d expect stronger warnings and more post deletions at the very least. I don’t think they’ll want Trump dragging down their brands too much, but they’ll also want to retain access to all the traffic and ad revenue he generates.

I think Trump may have a harder time getting on Fox News once he’s no longer President. Despite their enabling his nonsense for so long, I think they’ll eventually tire of him after he’s out of office, not wanting to keep associating with him if they don’t have to. I think they’ll opt to engage in some brand reconstruction starting in 2021, and I think that will involve moving away from being so closely linked with Trump. It would be a stretch to call them a legitimate news outlet, but I think they’ll try to re-brand themselves closer to center, so they don’t have to keep being as ridiculous as they’ve been in recent years. It wouldn’t surprise me if they already have such a plan in place right now.

I think that in 2021, people will largely relate to Biden with hope, compassion, and a cooperative spirit – except Trump supporters who will just keep behaving as nutters do. Reasonable people know that Biden is inheriting an absolute mess that isn’t his fault, and I think they’ll cut him a lot of slack for the first six months at least. He can hardly do worse than 2020, so just about any modestly intelligent behavior – and the lack of insanity – will go a long way towards generating social support for his efforts. People will demand a lot from him, but even if he did nothing, that alone would be an improvement, so I don’t think he has a very high bar to clear to make 2021 better than 2020.

I think many people are going to be delighted to remember what it’s like like to see honesty and human decency from a President. That will be such a refreshing change.

I think Biden will be good at uniting people around the great challenges we face, even as Trump will continue trying to stir up trouble. Long after Biden takes office, I expect that Trump will serve as an ongoing drag coefficient, actively trying to undermine Biden’s efforts. Even so, I think the years ahead will be optimistic and hopeful ones as we collectively deal with many struggles. We have a lot on our plates, and we know it won’t be easy.

I think that at least through 2021, many people will be so relieved and grateful that Trump is no longer President, and they’ll be glad to face the big challenges of life with rationality and sanity at the level of national leadership instead of stupidity, insanity, and daily lying.

So that’s my overall prediction for what I think is coming up. Let’s see how accurate this is. 🙂

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