Bob Geldof sang about not liking Mondays more than 40 years ago. Come Tuesday morning, there is a decent chance that Keir Starmer will know how he felt.
The prime minister faces a date with destiny on two fronts at the beginning of next week.
First up on his agenda is a UK-EU summit in London where, he hopes, the details of his “reset” with Brussels will be unveiled.
Later in the day, Starmer will run the gauntlet when he faces a Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) that is growing more fractious by the week.
Government sources say negotiations on the EU deal will go to the wire and that, inevitably, “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”, but there is little doubt that a deal of some kind will emerge.
It will include an agreement on the movement of agri-foods between the UK and the bloc, a key demand of British businesses left frustrated by the trade barriers which have resulted from Brexit.
A youth mobility scheme making it much easier for 18 to 30-year-olds to travel between the UK and the EU will also form part of the deal, although Downing Street is keen to emphasise that this does not mean a return to freedom of movement.
Those entering this country will be able to stay for a limited time only, while the Home Office is pushing for a cap on numbers as they try to bring down immigration.
“We already have similar youth mobility agreements with the likes of India, Uruguay and Australia, and any scheme will be smart and controlled,” one senior government figure pointed out.
An agreement on closer security and defence co-operation between London and Brussels will also be struck, with the UK giving the French greater access to British fishing waters in return.
Starmer is ready for hardened Brexiteers to cry betrayal, while those on the other side of the debate will accuse him of not going far enough by ruling out a return to the EU customs union and single market.
But he believes that the vast majority of voters will welcome his attempts to improve relations with the UK’s closest trading partner.
One insider told HuffPost UK: “The Tories took us out of the EU without a plan for growth or on things like asylum.
“The British public know that the current deal isn’t working, which is why we are negotiating a better one.”
The agreement on agri-foods – Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) products in the EU jargon – will “remove barriers to trade to stop all those lorries getting backed up at Dover while also making food will be cheaper in the shops”, No.10 says.
“We know that the opposition will say it’s a Brexit betrayal, but that’s a silly argument because that’s saying we don’t want any deal with the EU,” a government source said.
“That means they’re happy for all that red tape to continue and for British businesses to be hamstrung. The Tories have already criticised the India and US trade deals, so who do they expect British businesses to go and trade with?.
“We’re in a strong place to show the country that we’re delivering for workers.”
New polling by Ipsos shows that the British public are increasingly of the view that the UK needs closer ties with Europe, even if it comes at the expense of our relationship with America. Just over half (51%) are of that opinion, up from 42% in March.
Naomi Smith, chief executive of the pro-EU campaign group Best for Britain, said: “Removing trade barriers with the EU will deliver significant economic growth in every region of our country – more than any other policy idea in the government’s arsenal – and Starmer must urgently secure a common sense deal with Europe to make this happen.”
Happily for the PM, the vast majority of Labour MPs appear to be backing his EU strategy.
Bolton West MP Phil Brickell told HuffPost UK: “This isn’t about going over old Brexit battles, but ensuring we can address the issues that matter so much to my constituents – tackling cross-border crime, building a stronger defence industry, preventing irregular migration and supporting British firms wanting to do business in Europe. All of these matter at a time of increasing global insecurity.”
Starmer would be advised to focus on his EU deal when he addresses the PLP in Committee Room 14 at 6pm on Monday.
In the wake of Labour’s local elections disaster, and the by-election defeat in Runcorn and Helsby, it isn’t difficult to find an MP with an axe to grind.
The most common complaint is about the decision to means test the winter fuel payments, at a stroke removing it from 10 million pensioners.
In Hamilton, Lanarkshire, where Labour is battling to beat Reform UK to second place behind the SNP in a Holyrood by-election, voters are registering their disapproval of that policy before slamming the door on anyone who comes calling wearing a red rosette.
“Winter fuel has the potential to do as much damage to us as increasing tuition fees did to the Lib Dems,” said one Labour MP.
“The people in No.10 need to take off their lanyards and get out and meet some voters.”
HuffPost UK understands that Rachel Reeves is now convinced of the need to at least water down the policy so that more pensioners qualify for the payment, making a U-turn far more likely.
A third place finish for Labour in Hamilton would certainly register in Downing Street. The local MP is Imogen Walker, the wife of Starmer’s chief of staff, Morgan McSweeney.
One Conservative MP who has been canvassing in the constituency even suggested that the prime minister is as unpopular north of the border as Margaret Thatcher. In Scottish political terms, there is no harsher criticism.
Meanwhile, more than 100 Labour MPs have signed a letter to the government chief whip warning that they cannot, without some concessions from Downing Street, vote for planned cuts to disability benefits.
Starmer’s speech last Monday’s speech unveiling the government’s plans to slash immigration – which drew comparisons with Enoch Powell – has also enraged many of his backbenchers.
While the PM’s own position is not currently up for debate, he quickly needs his EU deal, alongside those with India and the US, to translate into an increase in support among the country at large.
A YouGov poll showed that his favourability rating is now the lowest its ever been, with even Labour voters turning against him in alarming numbers.
With the next election potentially still four years away, and with politics in a seemingly permanent state of flux, Starmer has plenty of time to turn things around.
On Monday night, he will be left in no doubt that he needs to up his game, and soon.
